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Hi AIMster,
Thanks for the response. Yes, I've taken the Dow 30 into account and am interested in stocks only. Basically I'm looking for stocks in which good investors who do their research (which I believe make up this board) are willing to invest their own money for a reasonably long period of time.
Hello everyone,
I'm looking for between 70 and 100 stocks (traded on U.S. exchanges) in which people on this board have actually invested money and would be happy to hold for at least 5 years.
If folks can post any ticker symbols that fit the bill, I'd appreciate it. Thanks in advance.
Hi Winkerbean,
The testing I did was a few years ago, so I don't recall everything I tested. However I did test various lengths.
In the end, the one implemented in AI performed best over the most market conditions. If another one had performed better, it would have been implemented instead.
I hope that helps.
Interesting interview on Hedge Funds with some Hedge fund managers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/programmes/080425_bbcdebate_hedgefund.shtml
It looks like there are a few other stocks that have a similar problem. I'll look into it.
Hey AIMster,
There was a site that did just that a few years ago (although I don't remember what it was called). You could enter some stocks and it would do an analyses for you. You could also create an online AIM portfolio.
I had thought about doing that but decided against it because Web-based apps just didn't (and still don't -- even with the AJAX stuff) have the rich GUI and functionality of stand-alone software. Also, I didn't want to be responsible for keeping everyone's data online (I prefer to let everyone manage their data themselves).
Of course there is a middle ground and that is to have a rich client that provides a better user experience and go to the Web for updated data, etc. That's a bit of what AI currently does although it could do more of this.
Conceptually I like the idea of having a self-maintaining web site, but if I did this I would have to maintain two separate code bases. I think it's easier just to manually update the website -- although with 6-year old data out there you might disagree
Hi AIMster,
Hah! I had forgotten about that page. Of course you're right, the website does need an overhaul. I was actually thinking of redoing the entire site recently, but when I started looking at the number of pages involved, I instantly dropped the idea.
However updating a few outdated pages is probably a more realistic goal for me to achieve. If you find any other outdated pages, please let me know. I'll chip away at them bit by bit.
Hi Tom,
Thanks. And yes, you are right that having active users providing feedback is the key. I remember when I first created AI 1.0, I looked at your site and tried to incorporate all of the modifications you had made (as well as some of those from Jack Park).
When I had done that I thought, well that's about it. I'm not sure what else I can put in there. Then I released AI 1.0 and received a flood of suggestions that I hadn't thought about. Many have made their way into subsequent versions of AI and thus made AI a far better product than I could ever have created on my own.
Don Carlson has been instrumental in not only providing enhancement suggestions but also in testing and discovering bugs and such. Of course there have been many others too (AIMster for one) over the years.
But looking back, it all started with Lichello's book and then your Website.
Hi AIMster,
Yes, I remember. Some other users had that request too.
Although it might not seem like it, every enhancement request I receive is added to a list. Unfortunately sometimes it takes some time to get things in but I do check the list whenever a new service pack or major upgrade is in the works to see what I can fit in. (and in case you're wondering... Don Carlson is currently leading the list with the most suggestions.)
Hi Glenn,
Yes, if you upgraded from SP4 rather than SP5 that would be the issue. SP4 used the old registration mechanism.
Hi AIMster,
Nothing major was added. The only other thing that you'd notice is a cancel button when exiting and being asked if you want to save a backup of your database (so if you click on exit and change your mind, you can cancel and not have to leave the program).
The next Service Pack update will contain a complete overhaul of the fundamental analyzer to bring it into line with the one in the Value Stock Selector. Currently AI and PI's fundamental analyzers use an older algorithm.
There should be no need to register again unless you installed the software on a different computer or hard drive. Did you install it into the same folder as your previous version?
In any event, please send me the registration number you are now seeing (displayed in red) and I'll check it against your old registration.
Automatic Investor 3.0 Service Pack 6 is now available from http://www.automaticinvestor.com/upgradecenter.html
It fixes a few issues, chief among them being the problem with the historical analyzer misreading Yahoo! data for non-U.S. tickers that have a period in them (e.g. BMO.TO).
Automatic Investor 3.0 Service Pack 6 is now available from http://www.automaticinvestor.com/upgradecenter.html
It fixes a few issues, chief among them being the problem with the historical analyzer misreading Yahoo! data for non-U.S. tickers that have a period in them (e.g. BMO.TO).
Hi AIMster,
There's an open source Windows API implementation called Wine (http://www.winehq.org ) that gets you sort of to where you were describing.
Hi Ken,
I just posted a response to your question on the Advanced AI board and am reprinting it below to ensure everyone sees it...
I understand the concern you and many other AI users have as I have had the same experience when I first wrote AI. I purchased a licensing/key code generator program so I could create licenses for AI.
It worked well for a few years and then without warning, the company that sold it disappeared. Since the licensing it used was tied to a specific computer, when I upgraded computers, I lost the program (including all of the customers I had entered into it).
At that point I decided to just write my own licensing software to get around that ever happening again.
Now I understand that my solution is not viable for most AI users, however there are 2 things in place that will help you retrieve your data.
1) The database where all of the data are stored (aidb.mdb) is a generic microsoft access-type database with no protection on it. Therefore it is very easy to extract your data from it without using the AI software (there are many, many programs out there that can read this database).
My guess is that there are also at least a handful of AI users that have the software skills to do this. Going a step further, something could be written that exported the data from the aidb.mdb database and imported it into another program.
So at the end of the day you are always able to get at your data even if you cannot get another copy of the AI software.
2) There are steps in place to ensure AI continues to work even if I disappear from the face of the Earth. Of course if that were to happen there would be no further updates and that could cause issues if Yahoo! changes its format, for example.
It would be better and easier for me if I didn't have to worry about licensing issues, unfortunately with the ease of copying software and transferring it around the world, I do have to worry about it.
I think that no matter what software you use for AIM, you'll face the same issues in that once the developer stops supporting it, for whatever reason, you will eventually see it degrade into something unusable -- regardless of whether it has copy protection or not (that's just the way technology works).
As some have suggested, there's always the manual approach, but to me that seems like an awful lot of work to do and you can forget about trying to backtest or create charts and graphs. I've found that the most light shed on how AIM behaves and the most increase in my understanding came by automatically running numerous backtests under various scenarios, not by working through hundreds of cases with a pencil and paper.
Technology is there to help make tasks easier and while some might like to stick with the old way of doing things, most people will use new technology if it is easy to use. As an example, I just purchased three rather large bookcases. Putting them together was a bit of a chore as I had to screw in no fewer than 200 screws. If I had stuck with my old manual screwdriver, I would probably still be assembling them and my wrists would not be happy. However using my cordless drill zipped me through the task in a couple of hours.
And that's what AI tries to do and what I hope it does for all of its users out there. I certainly appreciate everyone who have purchased AI and had the confidence to enter their important financial data into it and act on its recommendations. And although nothing is certain, in the worst case scenario, as I've mentioned, no user's AI data should have to be lost.
I hope that helps. Let me know if you have any other questions.
Hi Ken,
I understand the concern you and many other AI users have as I have had the same experience when I first wrote AI. I purchased a licensing/key code generator program so I could create licenses for AI.
It worked well for a few years and then without warning, the company that sold it disappeared. Since the licensing it used was tied to a specific computer, when I upgraded computers, I lost the program (including all of the customers I had entered into it).
At that point I decided to just write my own licensing software to get around that ever happening again.
Now I understand that my solution is not viable for most AI users, however there are 2 things in place that will help you retrieve your data.
1) The database where all of the data are stored (aidb.mdb) is a generic microsoft access-type database with no protection on it. Therefore it is very easy to extract your data from it without using the AI software (there are many, many programs out there that can read this database).
My guess is that there are also at least a handful of AI users that have the software skills to do this. Going a step further, something could be written that exported the data from the aidb.mdb database and imported it into another program.
So at the end of the day you are always able to get at your data even if you cannot get another copy of the AI software.
2) There are steps in place to ensure AI continues to work even if I disappear from the face of the Earth. Of course if that were to happen there would be no further updates and that could cause issues if Yahoo! changes its format, for example.
It would be better and easier for me if I didn't have to worry about licensing issues, unfortunately with the ease of copying software and transferring it around the world, I do have to worry about it.
I think that no matter what software you use for AIM, you'll face the same issues in that once the developer stops supporting it, for whatever reason, you will eventually see it degrade into something unusable -- regardless of whether it has copy protection or not (that's just the way technology works).
As some have suggested, there's always the manual approach, but to me that seems like an awful lot of work to do and you can forget about trying to backtest or create charts and graphs. I've found that the most light shed on how AIM behaves and the most increase in my understanding came by running numerous backtests under various scenarios, not by working through hundreds of cases with a pencil and paper.
Technology is there to help make tasks easier and while some might like to stick with the old way of doing things, most people will use new technology if it is easy to use. As an example, I just purchased three rather large bookcases. Putting them together was a bit of a chore as I had to screw in no fewer than 200 screws. If I had stuck with my old manual screwdriver, I would probably still be assembling them and my wrists would not be happy. However using my cordless drill zipped me through the task in a couple of hours.
And that's what AI tries to do and what I hope it does for all of its users out there. I certainly appreciate everyone who have purchased AI and had the confidence to enter their important financial data into it and act on its recommendations. And although nothing is certain, in the worst case scenario, as I've mentioned, no user's AI data should have to be lost.
I hope that helps. Let me know if you have any other questions.
Hi Ken,
There was a problem with the license server that's been fixed. Everything should be working now. Let me know if it's not.
Yes, me too (but I shouldn't be talking as it seems I owe one for the Advanced AI board).
Hi Ken,
Go to the order page here --> http://www.automaticinvestor.com/order.html and purchase your license.
Then download the latest version of AI from here --> http://www.automaticinvestor.com/ai30setup.exe
After you install it, send me the registration code (displayed in red) at mhing@automaticinvestor.com and I'll take care of your registration on this end.
If you run into any trouble, just let me know.
Hi AIMster and Hook,
The licensing is officially as per AIMster's last post, however I have been giving out multi-user licenses free of charge for people who have purchased a copy for one computer and want to use it on another computer (assuming they don't use both copies at the same time).
This is usually in response to someone who travels and wants it on their laptop when on the road and on their main computer when at home.
As AIMster has stated, the AI database file would need to be copied between machines. However this is a relatively simple task as it is one file that can be copied to a thumb drive or even emailed to yourself.
If any currently registered AI user is interested in the multi-user license, please feel free to email me as you will have to register the second copy.
Hi AIMster,
The problem was with the license server. It was offline. Unfortunately I was out of town in Atlanta and didn't notice until people started sending me emails.
My apologies for the inconvenience.
Hi AIMster,
I'll check it out as I've had a few people send me emails about this. The problem should only occur if you have SP5 installed as I made it "easier" to manage licenses in SP5 (at least that was the intent
I checked the server just now and couldn't contact it, however I don't think that's the problem. I'll get back to you shortly.
Hi GoodFella,
What version and service pack are you using? You can find this information on the Help menu (under About...)
Hi Tom,
I haven't been following the AIM board lately but just received an email from Don C. saying you were taking an investment job, and sure enough it's true.
Congratulations! You sure do follow AIM in all areas of your life. When others are buying, you're selling. When others are selling, you're buying. When others are employed, you're retired and when others are thinking about retirement, you're starting a new career.
Keep it up, I think it's great!
Hi Klaus,
I have registered you for the new computer. Let me know if you have any trouble using AI.
Hi TF, I sent you an email about this yesterday, but just so others know the answer, the software only works on Windows-based machines.
Hello Neil,
I just tried running a historical analysis on TZN.AX and the problem is as you described. I'll have to take a look at it to determine why this is happening as I haven't seen this problem with any of the stocks I've analyzed in the past.
A few questions...
1) What Service Pack do you have installed?
2) When you click on the "Trading Advice" tab, do you see the same date problem?
3) When you click on "Report" from the "Single Security" tab, do you see the same date problem?
Hi AIMster,
SP4 (and SP5) fixed a few problems, but no new functionality was added. If you are on SP3 or before, please upgrade to SP5 from here --> http://www.automaticinvestor.com/ai30setup.exe
Install it into the SAME folder where you installed the current version of AI.
You'll need to re-register from within the program. Also, ensure you backup your aidb.mdb file before installing SP5.
SP5 was an update that only changed the licensing module (the SP4 licensing was causing some problems with some computer configurations).
Therefore SP4 users don't need to upgrade unless there is a licensing issue. There are no functionality changes at all.
If you do have a licensing issue, you can download SP5 from here --> www.automaticinvestor.com/ai30setup.exe
Ensure that you backup your aidb.mdb database file BEFORE installing SP5. You'll also need to register the software again if you install SP5.
Once again, it is NOT recommended that you install SP5 if you are currently an SP4 user unless you are experiencing licensing issues.
Let me know if you have any other questions.
Hello All,
Not sure about the problem you refer to as my copy of AI (SP5) appears to work with e!Update.
If you are experiencing a problem, please post the exact steps you take so I can reproduce the problem and I'll ensure it is fixed.
Thanks.
Hi Larry,
1) The difference you see in ratings and target prices between PI and VSS are there because they use slightly different algorithms. VSS uses a more conservative algorithm, so you will always receive lower target prices.
After reviewing both algorithms for the past year, I've decided that the one in VSS is safer and so will be adding it to PI in the next release (effectively replacing the current PI rating and target price system).
2) The Fundamental Analyzer uses a company's financial statements (Balance Sheet, Income statement and Cash Flow statement) to determine its rating. Of course mutual funds, being a collection of companies, don't have this information available. So the FA can't rate mutual funds.
However the Asset Allocation module doesn't require these statements, rather it just requires the historical prices -- which are readily available for both stocks and funds. That's why the AA can be used with funds.
So the answer to your question is, yes, results for funds allocated via the Asset Allocator are valid.
I hope that helped. Let me know if you have any other questions.
Hi Marc,
Volume carries quite a bit of information that can be useful. In fact, many short-term traders use volume almost as much as price when deciding when to make trades.
Most people focus on price because it is the most visible attribute of a stock or fund.
However Volume can help in many cases. That's the idea behind the voluFilter. It tries to use as much relevant information as possible before issuing a recommendation.
Hi Marc,
I have been receiving literally thousands of SPAM messages per day that are not being caught by my SPAM filter (over the weekend I had over 3000 such SPAM).
So I might have missed some legitimate emails as I waded through the SPAM. My apologies if you were one of them. I noted that I replied to one of your emails on Oct. 16th and just processed your registration and sent you an email with your unlock code.
Please let me know if you don't receive it or run into any trouble.
Hi AIMster,
I'd thought of incorporating Greenblatt's algorithm into the rating given by VSS, but I couldn't come up with an appropriate weighting. So I went with Greenblatt's ranking as a separate step (or filter if you will).
Hi Glenn,
"could you expand a bit on how you added Greenblatt's method to the Pragmatic Investor software?"
The idea for PI 3.0 is to create portfolios of stocks that are of interest (e.g. S&P 500, Nasdaq, etc.), analyze them according to value considerations and then allocate them.
So PI 3.0 has 4 main tabs. First is the portfolios tab which has the same functionality as PI 2.0 but with a few enhancements.
Once the portfolio has been loaded, the next tab is Stock Ranking -- this is based on Greenblatt's method.
You can select stocks on the left side and drag them over to the right side. After that, you click the Create Portfolio button to generate a subset of the portfolio you started with.
All further analysis works against this new portfolio.
The third tab is where you perform the fundamental analysis. This is basically the Value Stock Selector but it uses the Portfolio in the first tab rather than the indexes built into VSS.
Note that this is a change from the FA in PI 2.0 which used a slightly different algorithm. The nice thing about PI's FA is that you can also see the underlying data used to calculate the score, plus a report in English is available that explains (in English) why a stock received its score.
The last analysis tab is where you allocate the assets.
So in essence, you start with a large list of stocks that interest you, then you rank them and create a subset portfolio, then you analyze them and create a further subset and finally you allocate them.
Hi Neil,
It sounds like something was corrupted somehow.
Check for a file called aidb.mdb and back it up before doing anything else. Then send me the file (mhing@automaticinvestor.com) and I'll check to ensure it's intact. Once I've looked at it I can offer some suggestions.
Also, what version and Service Pack are you using?
Hi MM,
I read the magic formula book (actually called "the little book that beats the market") about 6 months ago and thought it was worthwhile.
Greenblatt states from the outset that the magic formula often doesn't work for several years in a row (now what other investment advisor says this about his methods?).
But he also states that it appears to work well over the long-term and backs up his claims with some backtests and statistics.
In fact I liked his method so much I added it to the new version of the Pragmatic Investor software (which hasn't been released yet).
The site you mentioned shows you the top X stocks in alphabetical order (where X is the number of stocks from which you want to select). It doesn't show you the actual stocks' score.
However the book actually suggests ranking the stocks by score (where the score is calculated as the ranking of stocks based on Return on Capital added to the ranking of stocks by Earnings Yield (lower is better). So a stock that ranks as number 10 by ROC and number 21 by Earnings Yield receives a score of (10 + 21, or) 31.
He then suggests holding 20 to 30 of the highest ranked stocks, recalculating the rankings annually and doing this over a long period of time.
The problem for most people is that even if they say they have a long-term horizon, they really don't and panic when their picks fall for two or more years in a row.
But there really isn't a timeframe when investing in Value stocks. The payoff comes when the market realizes the stock is undervalued and there's no accurate way to determine when that will happen.
Some selections from the Value Stock Selector software reach their target prices within a few weeks or months, but many will take years and although most VSS users understand this, I did get a couple of emails a few months ago telling me that the software doesn't work because after using it for 2 months, most of its selections went down.
I think a similar thing applies to Greenblatt's book.
Hi sbsb,
Automatic Investor is based on Robert Lichello's AIM algorithm (see http://www.aim-users.com for more information). The Pragmatic Investor is based on the more traditional investment methods.
With PI, you select stocks, allocate them to form a portfolio and then rebalance from time to time.
With AI, you select stocks and allow AIM to manage them (i.e. buy and sell according to how the prices move). You also allocate them to form a portfolio, but there is another level involved. There's an article here --> http://www.automaticinvestor.com/articles/mpt.html that explains the allocation technique in more detail.
I hope this helps. Let me know if you have any other questions.
Hello Firebird,
Yes, the Control Increment (on the Configuration window) allows you to control the percentage added to PC.