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Yup, Hurst agrees with reversal here also. .33 with a high Std Deviation.
That thing makin me mad. It's close tho to capitulation. Should be at least 60 pips worth coming.
I used a different file hosting site for the last two. Must be something up with tinypic, maybe they're trying to put those damn 1x1 pixel tracking things in them or something.
The iVars is the Hurst Exponent, high value = continuance and low value = reversal. Helps when you add the std deviation on it to filter out the BS. In other words, best to trade when the StDev is high than when it's just poking along because it's not going to go anywhere. I got the idea from the link I posted a few hours ago that combined them. The author recommends only trading when the Hurst is below .5 and as low as possible. If you look at it backwards you can see right away how effective it is.
And maybe then some if my last post is right.
You and Qui need glasses. LMAO.
Only thing I can find is this.
Comments from Atlanta Fed president Lockhart, one of the more centrist members of the Fed, that he is leaving the door open to the option of more QE helped undermine the dollar earlier this afternoon, as did talk of an accelerated European oil embargo against Iranian imports. Firmer oil prices tend to underpin oil.
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/01/09/resistance-in-1-276585-area-holds-eurusd-for-now/
Course evidently Santa shopped with the credit card instead of the debit card so eventually that'll have to be paid back.
***Revolving loans (credit cards, etc) up $5.6 bln***
I'm shortin it again right here at 1.02549. Pigs fly evidently.
Here's a good read and application of the Hurst Exponent using standard deviation and bollinger bands.
http://iticsoftware.com/HA-manual-trading-stratey.pdf
Not sure why, I can see it OK. May have something to do with the image settings in your browser.
Just playing around with them right now but will let you know. First glance me thinks Zup is hard to beat but we'll see.
Autochartist MT4 Plugins
Board I had to reinstall MT4 last week and I just realized that there are 4 new indicators in my navigator screen from Autochartist. I couldn't get them to work at first so I went to the autochartist home page, clicked on my brokers name and went through the setup process and now they all work.
http://www.autochartist.com/
Here is the list of the 4 different indicators, all built to run from within MT4.
http://www.autochartist.com/what-is-autochartist/metatrader-4-plugin/
- Powerstats
- Chart Patterns
- Fibonacci Patterns
- Key Levels
Hurst Exponent
Board I came across this post over at BabyPips about the Hurst Exponent. I'm a fan of ratio trading and harmonics and if you're using Zup then this is a must from what I read. I haven't used it yet to trade by but if you read this or google it you can see what the purpose is.
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/41077-10pips-harmonic-trading-adventure.html
Here is the download for it.
http://codebase.mql4.com/4490
Here is an excerpt on how to use it:
------------------------------------
Hurst Exponent:
In harmonic trading we use the Hurst Exponent as an estimate of predictability of a price data stream. It indicates if the price action is likely to have:-
Persistence - value 0.5 - 1 (i.e. whatever is happening now is likely to continue)
Anti-persistence - value 0 - 0.5 (i.e. whatever is happening now is likely to reverse)
Randomness - value around 0.5 (i.e. likely to go in any direction)
In Harmonic Trading, when the patterns identify possible reversal trades, the Hurst Exponent should ideally be between 0 and 0.5. (Note this is true regardless of a bullish or bearish trade). The lower and steeper the Hurst Exponent is, the better it is.
------------------------------------
Here it is on a 1 hour AU. You can see in conjunction with the TDI and ZUP what the effect is.
If it'll wait till I get home I'm going to join you. I believe pretty nice move is coming upside
I think we'll see the final push on AU down to that 1.0190 here in the next 15 to 20 minutes.
Shorted AU again at the .447.
As a side note, we assume that we've drawn the fibs from the correct point. Here's another scenario. Interestingly enough, that .618 could turn out to be the .50 fib of the larger move, especially with the .707 on the daily since .707 is the square root of .5. It would fit in with the larger move and the step up on the daily from .786 to .707 (1 level) to .5 (2 levels).
Closed both of them for roughly 56 pips each. Do you remember the 2.236 we talked about the other day? Well it turns out that .854/.382 = 2.236 so I am of the belief that we've completed (or about to complete) a triangle here at the bottom red line. I've drawn the triangle slightly outside of the points so that it didn't cover up the yellow fib numbers but essentially we've come full circle to the starting point. I will be going long at the bottom red line.
Here's an interesting little tidbit of info and perspective on the .854. Been playing around with the ratio thing and .382/.447 is actually .854. The red line (the one without the arrow) is actually a .447 extension when you look at it on the 15 min chart.
Now I wish I knew what the heck that meant as far as predicting what will happen next or drawing the chart into the future! Only thing I can say is to look for a .447 following a .854 and then a .382 following a .447 which follows a .854. Gotta do some more research on the possibilities and what they mean.
Yup there's a trendline intersection right about there and I think it will be more of a technical condition that needs to be met more than a true change in direction. Not sure how it'll trade there but I'll probably exit around 1.02 and sit on my hands.
Going to start scaling in some small shorts here. Uncleared fibs down below once that .447 broke overnight. I think 1.0185 on the table.
Lol not yet jav!
Flat bottom bollies make the world go up! lol as opposed to the Queen song about posteriors!
I'm using v83 still. It may have to do with different settings or inputs like how the zigzag draws. There's a ton of them in there so I'm not sure where to start checking.
I always wanted to know what .447 is and I finally found it. It is the reciprocal of 2.236 (1/2.236). Here's a cool page that lists them all. So now I see why the bounce here at the .447 on the other side of the 2.236.
http://traders-pro.blogspot.com/2007/02/ratios.html
OK, hittin the juice here on AU.
Went ahead and snagged 25 pips there. I'd like to see what 1.0245 or so looks like again for another long.
I agree SG! Unfortunately I don't see any GOP frontrunner that looks to be able to derail the current welfare agenda. Looks like 4 more years of screwing the USD, savers, and consumers (although the consumers don't know it yet).
BTW in sacred geometry 2.236 is also known as the double square - .618 - 1 - .618 in addition to being the square root of 5 and the sum of 1.618 and .618. Below I've drawn a blue triangle at the 1.414 which is the diagonal of a square and look where it found support. Next I've drawn a triangle at the 2.236 which encompasses the 1.414 triangle and I would suspect the next support would be there. Makes me want to get some damn refrigerator magnets to play around with it! Cool stuff these numbers, I definitely will be on the lookout for a 2.236/1.414 lineup in the future, haven't really been tuned in to the 2.236 because I didn't realize the significance.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_root_of_5#Relation_to_the_golden_ratio_and_Fibonacci_numbers