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lol Pennies! I think I got it figured out!
Any lurkers here familiar with C++? If you're interested in collaborating on a ratio trading EA please PM me.
I agree. 1.0458 is big, big fib number. .786 and the trendline.
Thought this was interesting...
11:33 (Dow Jones) The jump in Treasury yields has pushed the 10-year TIPS breakeven rate wider to 208BPS. This rate is the difference between yields on 10-year TIPS and 10-year Treasurys, and reflects the anticipated rate of yearly inflation over the next decade. The widening is coming even as the yield on TIPS is on the rise as well, with 10-year real yields now around zero instead of negative. The price drop in TIPS could draw additional interest at the upcoming $15B 10-year TIPS sale. Results due out at 1 pm ET. (cynthia.lin@dowjones.com
Agreed. Matter of fact 1.04587 is the exact .786 mark to hit if I remember right. Don't have my chart up but I'm sure we will make it to there or very close before we see an extended downtrend. I left an order at 1.0440 for however long it takes. In addition you can see on ZUP the .447/.854 combination which makes for a .382/.618 depending on how you draw it on the bigger chart. That extension also ends there at the larger .786 fib.
Here's a pretty good read on Brownian motion and Hurst Exponent. Start at page 137.
http://www.intechopen.com/source/pdfs/17366/InTech-Currency_trading_using_the_fractal_market_hypothesis.pdf
The thing looks like UC in times past to me. That thing burned me so many times trying to pick the bottom I can't count so I'm not taking a position either way.
Goldman Confirms Smart Money Is Now Offloading To Retail; Sees 1.2880 As A EURUSD Short Covering Threshold
Earlier today we got our first clue that the smart money has stopped "distribution" and is now offloading to retail after we saw the first equity fund inflow, however tiny, in months, and only the second one out of 37 outflows since April, as reported by ICI. The second and far more important one comes from today's Goldman sales roundup, which confirmed that following today's latest borderline ridiculous meltup, retail investors looking for the sucker at the poker table, wouldn't be able to find one. Here's why. Quote Goldman: "As has been the recent trend, our cash flow remains better to sell, both from long-only and hedge funds." And there you have it: smart money (well, relatively so) has "recently" been using every melt up chance it gets to dump the bags with the E*Trade baby. Third and final proof: "ETF flow however skewed toward better buying." At this point retail investors may want to ask themselves: what do they know that the others, who are actively selling to them, don't.
And in other important news, from the same roundup, most definitely not written by Goldman's Tom Stolper, which is now just 140 pips from our latest contrarian target as of 2 weeks ago, we find that the magic line for what could be a vicious thrust higher in the EURUSD pair is 1.2880. Above that, the long-overdue short covering may finally commence: "The EURUSD rally extends another day. First on hopes that the IMF might be bulking up bailout funds, and then on the back of a solid rally in US stocks. Stop-loss buying the whole way up, and for the first time in recent memory, folks looking at short-dated topside calls should the move extend further. Almost all flows from hedge funds. The pair closes just below the 1.2880 pivot. Above there and there’s a chance that all those shorts represented on the IMM report – that is, technical accounts – might start to cover." Summary - hedgies selling stocks and doing all they can to trigger a short-covering rally in the Euro. Oddly, it sound somewhat agreeable.
I'm long here with you guys for a bit.
I'm out for 10 here and going to get back in short at 1.0412. That .786 is the inverse of 1.272 and should get hit I believe.
I just see something different long term. For one thing, if you look at the TDI when is the last time there was a top or bottom without the green line outside either the top or bottom band. The other thing is the key relationship between 1.618 and .768 regarding step down. We saw .786 from the high, probably see the .618 and then the .447 for reversals from here. Gotta run.
I'm short here at 1.0396. Good luck guys gotta head to work. I'll leave it for all day I think unless it goes back above that high of 1.0430
1.04 ought to be the extent of this madness.
Yes I was looking at that trendline we just touched. Looks a lot like an ascending triangle but long term 1.272/.707 in a chart that looks like a triangle even out to the weekly. Could be the beginning of the mid-term end.
Went ahead and closed em here at this trendline for 36 pips.
Looking for 1.0312 or so on my AU shorts after that 1.618/.786 fib combo.
I think good chance of 1.0358 which is .707 on back of the .618 we already had.
Yup, crazy for sure! A drive for the best yield since there is no alternative.
Go figure. I consolidated all my shorts into one big short using margin for a stop. This is a big, big area here so if they margin me out I'll just give em the finger and so in later in mid 1.6s but if right then I'll hold it a few weeks and then give em the finger.
Gonna give it about 15 more pips then declare shorting it a lost cause until 1.0660. China news was big for AU and a break much above here it'll go there. They hoarding gold and all but who really knows what the real GDP was but it is what it is.
3rd time to test the daily .618. I say BS.
Tripled down on AU there at the 2.618 1.0386. Took me 12 friggin clicks to get filled because of the volatility.
Well I think it's important to know what any indicator is doing so the interpretation would be (to me) as a high (sell) being the first bar in a series of 3 lower closes. Not sure whether this arrow comes up 3 bars back maybe like a fractal? or do they mean the 1st bar as in the one from the right (as in MT4).
This is what it does.
http://team.thinkorswim.com:7001/manual/dark/studies/studies%20library/T-U/TTM_ScalperAlert.html
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The TTM Scalper Alert is a great tool for runaway markets. Timing entry into a runaway market is haphazard at best and can be akin to stepping in front of a freight train. By waiting for a scalper alert to fire off, a trader can be sure that momentum has at least paused and allows an entry at a possible turning point with a precise risk reward ratio in place.
The TTM Scalper Alert comprises two plots, Pivot High and Pivot Low. Pivot High is shown as an arrow above the first bar in a series of 3 lower Closes (Sell signal). Pivot Low is shown as an arrow under the first bar in a series of 3 higher Closes (Buy signal)
What does the TTM stand for?
No I haven't. Which one is it.
I'm adding AU short here 1.0371.
Well open of this hourly candle above the top band so we will see if the irrationality continues.
Strikes me that longer term chart indicates more downtrend. Strong, strong point to pass here at the .447. .447 is the inverse of 2.236 and this looks like the top of wave 4 to me. EU make it past here then maybe breakout but until then the trend is friend. I remember that shit from UC kicking my but for weeks on end several months ago.
Frisky little sob tonight. Might be a breakout in the making.
I thought a few days ago the daily bands looked bullish but I think the 15 min is right for a downturn trade.
Been playing around with this entropy function in conjuntion with the Hurst, standard deviation, and TDI. To be honest I haven't had time to research much the math behind it but from what I understand it is a measure of the disorder of a system so used with the Hurst which measures persistence, Zup which measures fibs and ratios, the TDI which measures relative strength among other things, and the bollinger bands it looks like just what I've been looking for.
I think this is wwhere I got it from.
http://codebase.mql4.com/3887
I just got home, fired it up and went short too almost right after it booted. Ideal setup on the 15 min I think.
Avaricia please be very cautious with that. No offense but I can't imagine one good reason why anyone with money would want to let someone without a track record trade it for them. I would suggest that you just start a demo with Oanda or Alpari or another broker and when you are confident that you know the ins and outs of the whole game then put some of your own money in a real account that only you control.
Funny thing is the daily bands looked really bullish to me and tight. This could be a lengthy down trend and nasty
Figures all the fun happens after I leave. Least I put a stop on that order and it was small !
Guys gotta run. Leaving a 1.0323 buy order on AU with a 15 pip stop and a 40 pip TP. I really think if we get there should be a nice pop.
Yup, looks like it will too. That .618 may stick. There was a great signal on the 1 min a little bit ago with the Hurst and SD.
JPM down in pre-market. Maybe that will help set a direction for today.