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I'm convinced after seeing today's action that USD crosses are destined lower for a few days.
Closed my shorts this morning for 40 pips or so. Leaving another order for 1.0835. Gotta work, you guys take care.
Leaving my light 1.0820 order with a 30 pip stop. Ain't gonna fight the crowds, see you guys tomorrow. If it's right, it's right. If not, then I'll trade later.
RBA decision. No change. I'd say short squeeze. I'm going short at 1.0820 the daily .854.
I can't remember looking over a chart as many times as I've looked over the AU chart on almost every timeframe. I've probably looked at it a couple dozen times over the last few weeks trying to figure out where that weekly ABC fits it and where the lower timeframes fit in. For something that can go only two ways, it sure is a pain in the ass!
One thing that troubles me is that wave 4 is usually .618 of the entire retrace. I don't see that on the chart. Also, with 82 percent chance of rate cut (I see that as 4 out of 5 traders believing they will cut rates) I still don't see a mad rush for the door like I would expect. Probably some good dip coming but may still work out to be the least evil carry trade around.
yes, I think short term probably down but I get more and more convinced every day that it's destined for 1.14. For one thing when I project the fib from the .382 all the previous fractals match up with fib levels. I can find no other level dragging the fib tool where everything matches up. It may go down 1000 pips here but I think we haven't seen the last of AU highs.
Well guys I'm outta there with 28 pips, gonna stand aside a while and see what happens.
That top .886 about 1.0788 is a possibility because of the .886 below that marks 1.0682.
OK have to rethink this. Look like gap coming to me.
Well my overnight long didn't work out but I am up 20 pips on a new short. I think 1.0672 or so an area of interest so I'll probably close it close to there and look at 1.0655 for going long.
Put another buy at 1.07 with a 10 pip SL.
Got my 10 back there off the 2.236. Upper/lower gap fill??
Pedal to the metal at 1.07.
Put a stop at 1.0718. Back to the game.
You want to add them to your fib tool in MT4, not in ZUP. Drag a fib to the chart, select it, right click, then add the levels.
You see the trade? The top was the 2.236 of the .447 down below. Now we are almost back at the 2.236 extension of the upper 1.414! Could bounce here at the 1.902 or down to the 2.236. As a side note do you see the .786 at the bottom that connects the .447 and .382? If you read my sticky post about fib relationships .786 and 1.272 indicate one/two up or one/two down. I take that to mean one extension up here to the 1.902 instead of the 2.236.
I'll add at 1.07088 which is the 2.236 extension of the 1.414. So .447 to the 2.236, then backtrace to the 2.236 of the 1.414.
Long trade here at halftime. 1.902 extension of that 1.414 and also the .618 (square of the bottom .786) (or the reciprocal of the top 1.618) however you want to look at it.
Scalped it 10 pips long toward the gap. Time to watch the game.
FYI, YOY AUD inflation 2.2 vs 2.4 est.
Well guys I hate to let go of these 1.0791s but I just think I'm gonna take the 30 pips here.
Not exactly sure why it does that SG. When I run ea backtests I have to preload it as a custom indicator at the init code of the ea for it to work even though in real time the ea wouldn't have to have it preloaded.
Well not sure exactly, should be a .618 multiple like 1.618, 2.618, or 3.618. I'd prefer 3.618 of the 1.414 line lol. Gotta run!
The yellow ones are ZUP, the others are where I modified my MT4 fib too. You can pull it up on your chart and then add.
Happy Birthday Jav, I gotta head to work.
As a side note, if one were to set their fibs up like I have below with all of the extensions out there, I believe just using the most recent ZUP print would result in some very nice trades. Below I drew the fib in between the white .618 extension print and knowing that 2.618 is a multiple of .618 one could have made a very nice trade there simply by extending the ZUP print to the next level. I've never really looked at it in terms of this before. Always I've tried to figure the relationship between two or three of the upper/lower prints in connection with each other so maybe that's trying to over analyze the damn thing who knows.
Same principle would apply here to the most recent .447, the inverse of that is the 2.236 which would be exactly where the top was on Friday. Hard part would be deciding on a TP but it would make for a pretty decent scalp EA I would think. Might have to make that rascal to see.
I think you'll be fine RC.
I do think there is the possibility of hitting the daily .854 but would think we get some additional turndown here at the 4 hour 1.414.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2012/02/04/Australian_Dollar_At_Risk_Of_Major_Selloff_Amid_RBA_Rate_Cut.html
You'll like some of these charts, especially the vix.
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
lol I know. Gold down $31, stocks up. Go figure.
On Tuesday I think they have something to do with rate decision. Could be the impetus to get the ball rolling. Downhill I hope.
I'm stayin alive er I mean short through the weekend. lol have a good one stargate and board.