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If I were an Aussie doing the dead cat bounce right around here is where I would do it.
I think here come 85.70 on AJ. This 5/30/60 triangle here should be wave 4.
I agree. I don't think it's fallen as much as it should be falling considering equities so that make me think something up.
Well the sheet do seem to be hittin the fan doesn't it. I closed my AJ shorts with a goal of getting back in at 87.50 but I may have been premature.
That looks pretty cool SG, simple and reliable too. Might have to try that on for size. First tho, off to feed the masses, catch up with you later.
Yeah the beast is a pretty tricky she-devil. Damn near like NFP every candle sometimes. I read a pretty good post over at dailyfx after I posted that which sort of matched with my thought process. It talked about 130.30 then 125.80 so I'm sorta loose on it right now and looking to add above 130 for 300 or so piparoos.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/guest_commentary/2012/03/01/Guest_Commentary_MarketVisionTV_A_Nasty_Shock_Coming_Both_Ways_on_Sterling_Yen1.html
It fits more with Daneric's USD index chart too although he really doesn't know what's going to happen either.
Hope I wake up in the morning and the DOW is 500 points in the red.
I think I'm going to give up using anything other than my own extensions for trades and that being 1.272, 1.618, 2.618. This first chart was where I took the 100+ pips the other day, the second chart is what I see now on AJ (similar things on GJ and AU). I set my fib tool up to have both positive and negative extensions (didn't really know you could do that) so that up top projected up I have 1.272, 1.618, 2.618, and on bottom projected down I have .272, .618, 1.618 (they are named 1.272, 1.618, and 2.618 since they start at the bottom) so that way they are equidistant from each other. When I do this look at the bottom AJ chart at the top 1.618 and the bottom 2.618. This is why I added here on AJ.
I believe in that last chart that tells me that this is a perfect AB = CD pattern.
You've got me, I've looked at it every which way and that definitely makes the most sense. Dang thing hanging around this 1.08 area like a bad cold. Since it held that .707 I've got to believe that the 1.414/.707 chart earlier makes sense at least right now. I just added to my beast short and my AJ short so go one go all I hope.
This .707 that AU at right now indicative of triangle on the bigger scale just like the descending triangle on the 5 min we saw yesterday.
It's about to be sheet hit the fan. Get the water hose ready.
Wave 3 right here on GY, AU right here close.
Here is a closer look at the beast inside of what looks like it will be a triangle. However you can see we already hit the 2.618 extension and this little triangle inside the top means breakdown coming. I've seen this numerous times where it looked like an ascending triangle on the bigger timeframe but a closer look says otherwise. Big change in trend coming here.
Today should be the day for big reversal I think on equities if it's coming. Lots of volatility here.
Going short AJ here.
You'll get it. Wouldn't think it would be so hard for something that can only go two ways but it is. Like catching a greased pig sometimes.
Stick with what works for you and keep an open mind. It's a zero sum game where for every short there is a long. Also to go from forward to reverse you have to shift through neutral.
Done that quite a few times myself. Makes me go back and examine my trade and the reason why I put it there, sometime I have to remind myself that MT4 is a bid based chart so if I pick an exact fib then the bid has to get there. I argued with Alpari over a missed entry of .00002 one time and they told me tough even though with Oanda I would have been filled. Friggin quackpots.
When you go in like that with almost all margin, pick your points very carefully. Using margin as a stop loss can be very effective but without much room for error. I find it to be a more peaceful way to trade since I know I will lose "X" amount if I am wrong. Just what works for me, definitely not for everyone tho.
Personally with all the stuff that has happened with the euro, Ben speaking, and now Chinese PMI and it still can't go above 1.0855 I'd have to say where else to go but down at least in the short/medium term.
Also any thoughts on the descending triangle there between 1 and 3? I was thinking that the descending triangle right there in the middle between the 1 and the 3 was actually a 4 and the 3 a 5, with that being the end of a semi-major wave 1 with a retrace to the standard .50 being a double top. Either way it goes down, just trying to place the triangle. Usually when I see them they run in multiples seems like, seen as many as 4 or 5 before all headed the same direction.
I see short across the board on Aussie crosses IMO.
There'll be volatility for sure. Probably set it on a trend either higher or lower. With all the supposedly "bad" things today like the LTRO and Bennie sure doesn't look like much of a selloff. Makes me wonder if the retrace isn't just traders getting out ahead of time.
China PMI Manufacturing tonight 7pm central US. Have big implications for Aussie so beware.
Definitely can be a booger so you want to be very precise with entries. I feel like it can get back to 125.90 tho from here.
May be some good long trades along this EURAUD trendline, especially if you believe in AU short. I figure I'd like to start about 1.2345 or so which is the 1.414 extension of this AB of what I think to be ABC. If AU go higher then I think 1.2180 will be the place to be at the very bottom trendline which is also the .854 of this peak to bottom (and matches up with the .854 on the left)
They ain't fooling me. Hardly ever see a long term top with a 1.05 uncleared fib. I give it until 1.0723 and then it take off again.