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Don't get me to lying, I'm still trying to figure it all out! Here it is zoomed down a little to a closer range without so many different levels. You see how the low we saw a few minutes ago was 180 degrees from the top earlier today? Actually both were just a tad on either side of the line. Now I think we go first to the "0" line around 133.50, and then to the reciprocal of the line between the two red circles, maybe the blue circled area at 132.80. This is only the price tho and doesn't take into account the time. And I'm not even sure it's totally setup right yet.
Closed all of my shorts out here at 132.45 for about 85 pips. D! are you watching !
Don't know but there's about 10 more files to get started on.
Well break out the rocks glasses because you've got your work cut out for you now!
Got some more stuff I'll upload when I get back home. How anyone could figure that out in early 1900 with paper and pencil is beyond me. I'm only about on page 45 or so and it's not even close to what my beliefs where about it before I started reading
YW Jav. Might want to get some fixins together for a few toddies later tonight because it's definitely not your conventional stuff.
I did. It's in my folder/Gann.
I'll email you a 20 meg PDF if you want it. It's big though so tell me first lol.
Caving in big time now. Yesterday spring equinox. Gann said that was ZERO degrees on the calendar.
That would be the 3.618 extension from that first run off of the bottom
Still the possibility of 134.08.
Here's a good VIX article.
In Simple Terms
Historical, or actual, levels of volatility have fallen to very low levels through the first quarter of 2012. Not only are some of the important sectors seeing quiet action, but also the 30-day historical volatility of the S&P 500 is down to low levels of only 10.5%. Another way to conceptualize the market’s range-bound action is to consider that the average daily move in the S&P 500 so far this year has been only 5.9 points, or about .45%. The action stands in stark contrast to the situation in the fall of 2011 when 2.5% moves in the S&P 500 were not entirely unusual.
SECTOR YTD GAIN 30-DAY ACTUAL VOLATILITY
Consumer Discretionary 12.40% 10.70%
Consumer Staples 3.40% 6.20%
Energy 6.70% 12.90%
Financials 14.20% 16.40%
Health Care 5.10% 9.10%
Industrials 9.60% 14.10%
Information Technology 14.80% 10.50%
Materials 8.80% 17.30%
Utilities -1.10% 5.50%
S&P 500 9.00% 10.10%
FIGURE 2: S&P SECTORS YTD PERFORMANCE AND 30-DAY VOLATILITY (THROUGH 3/12/12). There’s been a modest uptick in volatility in the financials, basic materials, and energy groups since the February 2012 Vol Report. Still, a “quiet grind higher” is the best description for the market action across most sectors so far for 2012. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data: Thomson Reuters
Quiet and orderly trading has helped create a very steep curve in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) term structure—which is just a fancy term to mean a curve that displays the current volatility reading of the VIX. The Chicago Board Options Exchange [CBOE] disseminates real-time readings for the index throughout the day. The VIX’s value is based on the amount of volatility currently reflected or “implied” by S&P 500 Index options.
The exchange also computes various future and forward values for the VIX, which are also based on S&P 500 Index options. However, instead of assessing a value based on front-month options as the spot VIX does, the term structure values for future months are based on the implied volatilities of those back-month options. The concept is similar to the term structure of interest rates in the bond markets. The term structure of VIX options gives us a clue as to what the players in the options pits expect about volatility in the months ahead.
For example, as of this writing, VIX is at 15.47, its lowest levels since May 2011. But, the term structure for forward value of VIX options (Figure 3) shows April in the high teens. By mid-September 2011, it approaches 24. So presently, the term structure is steepest at the back months. December is almost 30.
FIGURE 3: FORWARD VIX values indicate we’re not out of the woods just yet. Current VIX values as of March 12, 2012 indicate low volatility into the future. Not so, say back-month values. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: CBOE.
If VIX is at 15.47, September forward values are near 24, and December almost 30, the VIX term structure is very steep. Participants seem to be anticipating another round of volatility in the months ahead. But just how quickly can term structure change? Figure 4 below shows the situation on October 3, 2011, when the market appeared to be bottoming out. The longer-dated VIX values were elevated and in the mid-30s. But, notice that term structure was sloping the other way. VIX had rallied to the mid-40s at that time, less than five months ago.
FIGURE 4: HISTORICAL TERM STRUCTURE Compared to current term structure, the VIX was telling a different story about volatility in October 2011. The back-month VIX readings at the time showed future volatility coming down, which is what happened. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: CBOE.
Headline Risk
If there is some global risk premium priced into the term structure of S&P 500 options, it makes sense to pay attention to the headlines, both in the U.S. and abroad. On March 6, 2012, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 204 points and suffered its biggest loss so far in 2012 after investors shed risky assets globally. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both suffered one-day losses of 3.5% from concerns about a shaky deal between deeply indebted Greece and its creditors. A mini-wave of fear and contagion suddenly surfaced and spread across global equity markets. At the same time, VIX rallied 2.70 points, to 20.75 on March 6, before suffering a four-day, 25% slide, thus erasing the entire gain and a lot more. As of early March, 2012, the index is falling towards 15, its lowest levels since late-May 2011.
The S&P 500’s low level of actual volatility, hovering around 10%, appears to be one reason VIX is falling. There’s not much volatility in the market today, and VIX is responding. Still, while VIX seems to reflect expectations that the low levels of market volatility may continue, headline risk is a reality. The steep slope reflected in the term structure of VIX future values seems to be telling traders to stay on their toes.
Agreed. Interesting thing is there is daily .447 over on the left at the April 8, 2011 top running to the middle Gartley spike and here we have on the 4 hour (in addition to the 1.618 on the daily) a 2.236 which is the inverse of the .447.
I'm virtually all in here. It's time.
1.618 daily extension on GBPJPY, specifically .707, .447, 1.618 triangle. Should be tank time over the next few days. Been so busy not much time to post but I'm short n holdin.
It's coming SG 7,9,13 not sure what the cycle is but gonna be there before the end of the week
Yes, look at the wave count on USDCHF.
Well guys I bought some SPXU this morning at 9.11. I feel pretty good that we're about 20 to 30 points away from a top on SPX somewhere in the 1425 to 1439 range so probably a little early but I'll just wait and see.
Just read on zerohedge Israel cabinet has 8 to 6 majority in support of preemptive Iran strike. Gonna be some crazy stuff going on if that happens. On my cell so no link but it's there.
I would think so too SG. Waiting for 1440 though to buy some SPXU.
You guys are nutz! Was born in the same town tho!
Using MT4 as a Data Feed
If you're interested in using an external software program that can read a CSV file here's a way to use the data feed from MT4 instead of buying a feed. I use it with Gannalyst (which is free BTW). This is a custom indicator that exports the bars from whatever chart you attach it to. It creates a CSV file in Program Files/"Your Broker"/Experts/Files. Then to use it you just guide whatever software you're using to that location to read the data. It is setup for Gannalyst in that the data is oldest to latest (as opposed to how it's presented in MT4 from newest to oldest if this makes sense) and writes the date, time, high, low, open, and close in that order. If you attach it to a 60 min chart, it will read 60 minute data just like if you attach it to a 1440 chart it will read daily data from the bars in the chart.
Here is the link for the indicator, I'm not going to post an uncompiled version.
http://www.filedropper.com/ganndata-copy
Here is a visual of what the file names look like - broker, pair, timeframe.
And then this is what it looks like once imported. If you're using Gannalyst it has some very good help files that will guide you through the setup. Have fun I gotta run. BTW if you use Gannalyst and like it or make some money with it give that guy a donation, he did a great job on that software, there's a donation link on the download page.
http://www.gannalyst.com/
Closed my beast shorts here at the .447 inverse of the 2.236. Gonna wait and see now.
Also occurs to me that the best way to measure it in terms of an indicator would be speed as in pips per time value measured. Not entirely sure the best method to code it yet but a more or less pure reading without volume or other trappings would be desirable in conjunction with Gann angles or harmonics. RSI comes close but calculates momentum and velocity as opposed to pure speed or slope.
Gann's Square of Price and Time
Gann commented that when price and time square change is inevitable. So geometrically speaking that is a 45 degree angle much like the pitch of a roof. Roof pitches are calculated as rise over run as in 8 inches of rise per 12 inches of run being a 8 in 12 pitch. I won't go into details about the whole equilibrium thing or harmonics because this is another investigation but just to illustrate this I went back on the AU chart to a week or so ago and checked out this steep drop. I remember this point was a .707 because Pennies and I posted about it.
So I drew the angle initially on a chart using the trendline by angle tool and didn't really get anything that made sense or that would result in a 45 degree variation (like 22.5 or 11.25 etc). Then I changed my chart to a 1:1 perspective and it made sense. That .707 there was the inverse of 1.414 (the square root of 2 which you see in the back leg of the Gartley) PLUS it was at a perfect 45 degree angle. Taking the top red line as 360 and the vertical heavy red line as 270, the perfect 45 was at 315 (halfway between the two) as you can see in the picture.
I would say if you're looking for pure/exact entries and exits then back out to a 1:1 chart especially with something like Gann or harmonics because the compression in a stock MT4 chart throws off the angles and relationships and these are very important! Either that or use a spreadsheet, big chief tablet and pencil, calculator, etc because price and time in the proper relationships looks very important to me based on this one example.
Hope this all makes sense!
Interesting WD Gann article from 1909. Pretty amazing given the times this was written in.
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Sometime ago the attention of this magazine was attracted by certain long pull Stock Market predictions which were being made by William D. Gann. In a large number of cases Mr. Gann gave us, in advance, the exact points at which certain stocks and commodities would sell, together with prices close to the then prevailing figures which would not be touched.
For instance, when the New York Central was 131 he predicted that it would sell at 145 before 129. So repeatedly did his figures prove to be accurate, and so different did his work appear from that of any expert whose methods we had examined, that we set about to investigate Mr. Gann and his way of figuring out these predictions, as well as the particular use which he was making of them in the market.
The results of this investigation are remarkable in many ways.
It appears to be a fact Mr. W, D. Gann has developed an entirely new idea as to the principles governing stock market movements. He bases his operations upon certain natural laws which, though existing since the world began, have only in recent years been subjected to the will of man and added to the list of so-called modern discoveries. We have asked Mr. Gann for an outline of his work, and have secured some remarkable evidence as to the results obtained therefrom.
We submit this in full recognition of the fact that in Wall Street a man with a new idea, an idea which violates the traditions and encourages a scientific view of the Proposition, is not usually welcomed by the majority, for the reason that he stimulates thought and research. These activities the said majority abhors.
W. D. Gann's description of his experience and methods is given herewith. It should be read with recognition of the established fact that Mr. Gann's predictions have proved correct in a large majority of instances.
"For the past ten years I have devoted my entire time and attention to the speculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the novice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of the subject."
"I soon began to realize that all successful men, whether Lawyers, Doctors or Scientists, devoted years of time to the study and investigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attempting to make any money out of it."
"Being in the Brokerage business myself and handling large accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man for studying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others. I found that over ninety percent of the traders who go into the market without knowledge or study usually lose in the end."
"I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote ten years of my life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculative markets and to devote my best energies toward making speculation a profitable profession. After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the law of vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points at which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time."
The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the street is aware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses.
"It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However, the layman may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographs are based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible."
"In order to test the efficiency of my idea I have not only put in years of labour in the regular way, but I spent nine months working night and day in the Astor Library in New York and in the British Museum of London, going over the records of stock transactions as far back as 1820. I have incidentally examined the manipulations of Jay Gould, Daniel Drew, Commodore Vanderbilt & all other important manipulators from that time to the present day. I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to & from the time of E. H. Harriman, Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. The figures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictly in accordance with natural law."
"In going over the history of markets and the great mass of related statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variations in the value of stocks, and that there exists a periodic or cyclic law which is at the back of all these movements. Observation has shown that there are regular periods of intense activity on the Exchange followed by periods of inactivity."
Mr. Henry Hall in his recent book devoted much space to "Cycles of Prosperity and Depression," which he found recurring at regular intervals of time. The law which I have applied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but the daily and even hourly movements of stocks. By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and at what point the greatest resistance is to be met.
"Those in close touch with the market have noticed the phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall, in the value of stocks. At certain times a stock will become intensely active, large transactions being made in it; at other times this same stock will become practically stationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the law of vibration governs and controls these conditions. I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on the decline."
"While Union Pacific and other railroad stocks which made their high prices in August were declining, United States Steel Common was steadily advancing. The law of vibration was at work, sending a particular stock on the upward trend whilst others were trending downward."
"I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it. The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in the majority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions."
"The power to determine the trend of the market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individual stock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of vibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental law of vibration. Science teaches that 'an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into a periodic or rhythmical motion; also, just as the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as the advancing year over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises."
"From my extensive investigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not only do the various stocks vibrate, but that the driving forces controlling the stocks are also in a state of vibration. These vibratory forces can only be known by the movements they generate on the stocks and their values in the market. Since all great swings or movements of the market are cyclic, they act in accordance with periodic law."
"Science has laid down the principle that the properties of an element are a periodic function of its atomic weight. A famous scientist has stated that 'we are brought to the conviction that diversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms is most intimately associated with numerical relationship. The numbers are not intermixed accidentally but are subject to regular periodicity. The changes and developments are seen to be in many cases as somewhat odd."
Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena, whether in nature or on the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.
"If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. Faraday said, "There is nothing in the universe but mathematical points of force."
"Vibration is fundamental: nothing is exempt from this law. It is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe."
Through the law of vibration every stock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are characterized in its own rate of vibration. Stocks, like atoms, are really centres of energy; therefore, they are controlled mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action and power: power to attract and repel, which principle explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead' at other times. Thus, to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to follow natural law.
"After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market."
In order to substantiate Mr. W. D. Gann's claims as to what he has been able to do under his method, we called upon Mr. William E. Gilley, an Inspector of Imports, 16 Beaver Street, New York. Mr. Gilley is well known in the downtown district. He himself has studied stock market movements for twenty-five years, during which time he has examined every piece of market literature that has been issued & procurable in Wall Street. It was he who encouraged Mr. Gann to study the scientific and mathematical possibilities of the subject. When asked what had been the most impressive of Mr. Gann's work and predictions, he replied as follows :
"It is very difficult for me to remember all the predictions and operations of W. D. Gann which may be classed as phenomenal, but the following are a few. "In 1908 when the Union Pacific was 168-1/8, he told me it would not touch 169 before it had a good break. We sold it short all the way down to 152-5/8, covering on the weak spots and putting it out again on the rallies, securing twenty-three points profit out of an eighteen-point market wave."
"He came to me when United States Steel was selling around 50, and said, "This steel will run up to 58 but it will not sell at 59. From there it should break 16 points." We sold it short around 58 with a stop at 59. The highest it went was 58. From there it declined to 41-17 points."
"At another time, wheat was selling at about 89¢. Gann predicted that the May option would sell at $1.35. We bought it and made large profits on the way up. It actually touched $1.35."
"When Union Pacific was 172, he said it would go to 184-7/8 but not an eighth higher until it had a good break. It went to 184-7/8 and came back from there eight or nine times. We sold it short repeatedly, with a stop at 185, and were never caught. It eventually came back to 17."
"Mr. Gann's calculations are based on natural law. I have followed Gann and his work closely for years. I know that he has a firm grasp of the basic principles which govern stock market movements, and I do not believe any other man can duplicate the idea or his method at the present time."
"Early this year, he figured that the top of the advance would fall on a certain day in August and calculated the prices at which the Dow Jones Averages would then stand. The market culminated on the exact day and within four-tenths of one percent of the figures predicted."
"You and W D Gann must have cleaned up considerable money on all these operations," was suggested.
"Yes, we have made a great deal of money. Gann has taken half-million dollars out of the market in the past few years. I once saw him take $130, and in less than one month run it up to over $12,000. Gann can compound money faster than any man I have ever met."
"One of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer [1909] when he predicted that September Wheat would sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that figure before the end of the month of September. At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last day) the option was selling below $1.08, and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled. Mr. Gann said, 'If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculation. I do not care what the price is now, it must go there.' It is common history that September Wheat surprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no higher in the very last hour of trading, closing at that figure."
So much for what W D Gann has said and done as evidenced by himself & others. Now as to what demonstrations have taken place before our representative :
During the month of October, 1909, in twenty-five market days, W D Gann made, in the presence of our representative, two hundred and eighty-six transactions in various stocks, on both the long and short side of the market. Two hundred and sixty-four of these transactions resulted in profits ; twenty-two in losses.
The capital with which he operated was doubled ten times, so that at the end of the month he had one thousand percent of his original margin.
In our presence Mr. William D. Gann sold Steel common short at 94-7/8, saying that it would not go to 95. It did not.
On a drive which occurred during the week ending October 29, Mr. Gann bought U.S. Steel common stock at 86-1/4, saying that it would not go to 86. The lowest it sold was 86-1/3.
We have seen gann give in one day sixteen successive orders in the same stock, eight of which turned out to be at either the top or the bottom eighth of that particular swing. The above we can positively verify.
Such performances as these, coupled with the foregoing, are probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.
James R. Koene has said, "The man who is right six times out of ten will make a fortune." Gann is a trader who, without any attempt to make a showing, for he did not know the results were to be published, established a record of over ninety-two percent profitable trades.
Mr. W. D. Gann has refused to disclose his method at any price, but to those scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to the stock of Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite possibilities.
We have requested Mr. Gann to figure out for the readers of the Ticker a few of the most striking indications which appear in his calculations. In presenting these we wish it understood that no man, in or out of Wall Street, is infallible.
William D Gann's figures at present indicate that the trend of the stock market should, barring the usual rallies, be toward the lower prices until March or April 1910.
He calculates that May Wheat, which is now selling at $1.02, should not sell below 99¢, and should sell at $1.45 next spring.
On Cotton, which is now at about 15¢ level, he estimates that after a good reaction from these prices the commodity should reach 18¢ in the spring of 1910. He looks for a corner in the March or May option.
Whether these figures prove correct or not will in no way detract from the record which W. D. Gann has already established.
William Delbert Gann was born in Lufkin, Texas, and is thirty-one years of age. He is a gifted mathematician, has an extraordinary memory for figures, and is an expert Tape Reader. Take away his science and he would beat the market on his intuitive tape reading alone.
Endowed as he is with such qualities, we have no hesitation in predicting that, within a comparatively few years, William D. Gann will receive recognition as one of Wall Street's leading operators.
Note: Since the market forecast was made, Coffee has suffered the expected decline, the extreme break having been 120 points. The lowest on the May wheat thus far has been $1.01-5/8. It is now selling at $1.06-1/4.
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http://www.webtrading.com/gannarticle1.htm
You'd think so. 800 pips on UJ and I left 600 of them on the table back there at .78.
Would seem to be a hot mess of non correlation at the moment. Usd up au down while the non participating public watches equities keep going up. Go figure
1.76 trillion
http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/cbo-obamacare-cost-176-trillion-over-10-yrs/425831
Went short the beast again this morning. Will you guys please stop bidding the thing up?
Tide.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/03/12/police-take-on-rising-wave-tide-detergent-theft/
Wonder if there's a grey market in the generic brand lol. Friggin crazy world.
I'm gonna play around with it some. I didn't like it before but I think it because I didn't understand what it was showing. Outside to paint some more on my house for now tho hope I don't wind up painting any grids my wife will be pissed!
Yes I think you right about the squares and there is a gann grid in mt4 but it looks sort of weak to me. Interesting thing about the whole concept is it doesn't really matter if time actually has anything to do with it or not just that traders think that it matters. So self fulfilling prophecy or not it definitely needs some more learning and studying. Gotta run catch u guys later.
Here's a good example but not exactly "Gann" I think but it's incredible how they line up.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=73167062
Here I've replaced my fibonnacci time zone tool with the square roots of the fib sequence up to 13. It's almost impossible to think that time has nothing to do with the waves! It isn't a perfect Gann setup I don't think since Gann looked more at the square of time and I haven't been able to figure out how to make my fib tool show the succeeding squares in the sequence. That was why I got the gannanalysis setup in the first place.
At the top of the picture where the Gartley ended is most likely the whole number 2 and I am thinking where we at right now on the chart is most likely the whole number 3.
Thanks SG, I will do that.
I appreciate it D, the time part is key but it's one of those sort of vague things that is a little difficult to get your head around. I mean I've never really thought of squaring time so that's why I downloaded the GannAnalyst software to try to get it to mean something more concrete. In terms of Excel I was playing around with it last night and I got the price squares OK but when I get to the time in the formula I start thinking well OK is it seconds, minutes, hours, etc just because it's well it's TIME!
Most definitely something to explore tho. Check your email too BTW.