Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Hi Tom,
Nice software!
I had a buy in January a bit below $31.
The cash in the machine was negative, so I had to borrow from other machines in the UBA.
All these buys improved the PC nicely.
AIM on, K
Hi Tom,
Tonight a sell in DGS, lifo gain was 25.3%
A sell in emerging markets, quite a change after the long sequence of buys.
Best, K
Hi Alton,
Also AIMing IBM. The first buy price was $193. Today the price is $154. Collecting the dividends and a few AIM buys helped to bring this machine to a no-loss situation.
I like the Olli self-driving car with Watson as a driver.
Best, K
Hi Allen,
The low in february is part of a longer wave.
I find it difficult or not immediately obvious to see the length of the longer waves.
Are you able to do a complete fourier analysis?
Best, K
Hi Allen,
Interesting book on cycles and spectral analysis.
I think AIM is looking at the sum of all cycles.
Maybe you could AIM each cycle seperately, or AIM a short cycle on top of a longer cycle.
A cycle low or high could be used to time AIMs signal evaluation.
Best, K
Phelps,
https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=phelps+100+bagger
Phelps's book is available in a new reprint.
Mayer wrote a follow-up with new 100 baggers from 1970 till 2010
Best, K
Re: Trade range after non-AIM transactions...
When for example a cash dividend is reinvested, I multiply the previous PC/share with the new number of shares. PC then changes and the trading range stays the same.
Best, K
UBA
The maximum equity per share was for a long time $11.30
Now with the recovery of the past few weeks it is $11.83
The power of AIM. Equity drawdown is 0%.
The max cash per share is $4.45 while the current cash per share is $2.07, a drawdown of 53.5%. Cash is now 14.9% of the UBA.
Cash and equity combined had a maximum of $15.22 and is now $13.90, a drawdown of 8.7%
Especially the emerging markets ETFs were drawdown a lot.
Best,K
Hi Ls7550,
I-AIM is typically started 50% equity 50% cash. By using virtual cash, the level of gearing can be set at any desired level with the added insurance that the theoretical amount of needed cash is a finite amount.
Here we have Lichello-AIM 50% VTI, 50% 'cash' equally invested in SHY,TLT,IAU. We see that the cash is fluctuating and is going up when VTI is going down. No action in this timeframe. The hold zone is constant between 89.91 and 109.79
Now we have an Inverted AIM. The value of cash in the column 'Stock value dollar' is fluctuating, it is the sum of SHY,TLT and IAU. Also the hold zone is fluctuating and when 'cash' is increasing, the lower bound of the hold zone is increasing to 96.94 and results in a 'cash' sell, buying 8 more shares in VTI. Interestingly on Feb,20 and Feb,27 the amount of cash is roughly the same as on Jan,1st, only 8 more shares of VTI are there now!
When the 'equity' is decreasing, the 'cash' is increasing, they meet halfway and a transaction happens. Both activities are used for the transaction.
Best,K
Hi Ls7550,
I have started a test spreadsheet from 1 January this year, where an equally weighted linear combination of SHY,TLT,IAU is I-Aimed by VTI.
We have volatility in both 'equity' and 'cash'. The volatility of the 'cash' part moves the hold zone also quite a bit.
Also I want to compare this to VTI L-Aimed by the SHY,TLT,IAU combo, where volatitily is algoritm-important in the 'equity' part
but more passive in the 'cash' part.
Want to see how this develops.
Best Regards,K
In the UBA:
AIM buy in VGK and EFV, both after waiting one month.
On Thursday other monthly waits will end for more buying.
My share portfolio was run as one machine(Lichello BtB) in the past. I split the one machine into a machine for each stock and was able to get some sells. Other stocks needed a buy.
Best,K
buy without the 30day
With 'I Aim' you can also ignore the 30 day rule and buy stocks whenever you want to.
However when selling stocks using 'I Aim Btb' maybe you like to use the 30 day rule.
Also an option is to use 'I Aim Macro', using Macro to manage your stock sells using Aim's signals.
And of course 'I AIM RS' using relative strength to manage your stocks sells using Aim's signals. Maybe 1-Year lookback, evaluated monthly/weekly/daily. This could be used for the SP500 for example. Some brokers allow for spreadsheet based and real time calculated transactions.
I am using settings (10,10,5,5) for 'I Aim Btb'. Not progressed yet to more advanced settings.
Best, K
AWF vs EDV
Looking on stockcharts.com at the chart of AWF vs EDV from 2008 till now, using the max number of days, the performance is equal.
I always thought that stockcharts is showing total return, including dividends.
The volatility of EDV seems higher than the volatility of AWF.
EDV is a bit inverse to AWF, AWF more stocklike maybe.
The AIM buy i have for IYLD could also be used to buy EDV.
Best,K
Thanks Tom,
Thanks for the pointer to AWF.
AWF's performance is amazing, maybe QE driven, especially 2009-2014.
NAV at 12 and price at 10.50, a more than 10% discount.
For IYLD I have an AIM buy signal.
Thinking to spend that signal on AWF and diversifying a bit more.
Best,K
Hi Tom,
the 2015 plateau
This is my portfolio of individual shares, AIMed as one group BtB. No buys yet, value is 1% below portfolio control. I like to add some more nice value stocks to this one. Cash is at 41.6%
I only buy value stocks that also pay a dividend. At this moment DOW30 stocks AXP,BA,IBM and AAPL would be nice to add.
Best, K
UBA
My UBA has a drawdown of 16.56% versus the highest value.
The equity part has a drawdown of 9.35% and cash has a drawdown of 44.77%.
Buying in a lot of machines lately. Especially emerging markets.
VOO, VTV and VNQ still wait for their first buy.
VB, VSS, DLS and VNQI had their last buy in August.
VBR, VGK, VPL, EFV, VWO, DEM, DGS are on their monthly timer.
Best,K
Hi SFsecurity.
I hope you will be healthy again soon and that 2016 is a better year for you.
Thank you for your question relating to inverted aim.
Remember it is difficult to get a feel for it at the start. I am adding i-aim spreadsheets next to my btb spreadsheets at the moment to see how each machine reacts. Still uncharted territory and I am on a learning curve myself.
See post 36906 for an explanation.
I posted the same spreadsheet as Lichello used in his book for the 10-8-5-4-5-8-10 etc. sequence. Only a few changes were needed.
The new philosophy:
Cash now becomes our stock.
And stock becomes our cash.
So we will never run out of cash.
Explanation of the columns:
Column 1 is the share price.
Column 12 is the number of years, running from 1 to 10.
Initial cash is $5000 and initial stock is 500 shares of $10 each so 500 shares. In column 10 you see the portfolio value expressed in number of shares and in column 11 in number of dollars.
In column 2 we have stock value. Remember cash is stock, we have $5000 cash and the share price is $10 so we start with 500 shares of stock value.
Column 3 is safe, the standard value 10% as used by Lichello. So column 3 start as 50 shares of stock.
Column 4 is our cash, so in the new system that is the number of shares we own. We start with 500 shares.
Column 5 is cash bot/sold in $. This is the market order(column 9 times price(column 1)
Column 6 is cash owned in $. It is the cash of the previous month plus or minus column 5.In year 10 we have more than one million dollars.That is after 9 years! Because we started with year 1.
Column 7 is portfolio control, calculated using the standard Lichello formula. When have a buy, in inverted aim that means we buy cash and sell shares we increase portfolio control with a number of shares. So portfolio control is a number of shares, and you see in the spreadsheet that this number is increasing all the time.
Column 8 is our advice, the difference between column 2 and column 7.
Column 9 is market order and is the advice minus safe. That means we know now how much to buy or sell.
how to go from here
you can use an existing machine and create an i-aim spreadsheet. I did this for GNAT because it dropped so much in price and I wanted to be able to trade even if is goes lower(cash never goes to zero). I can send you the spreadsheet from post 36906, need an email address for that. This spreadsheet is not used by myself other than to research the i-aim possibilities in the same format as Lichello used in his book. (In the spreadsheets I use myself, the same functionality is used as in the btb spreadsheets, so i can use limit orders at specific price points for a certain number of shares.)
Hope this helps
Have a superb and healthy 2016!
K
Twinvest/Synchrovest, Another interesting feature of inverted AIM is in the arena of Synchrovest and Twinvest. With i-aim you just add money to the cash position. This will increase the buy and sell prices and on a dip you will buy a few more shares. When adding money next month the same happens etc. etc. Setting limit orders will automate this process. So regular increasing the money part of an i-aim machine means twinvest/synchrovest is not needed anymore to build a machine to the right size.
Also for irregular contributions you can just add money to the cash part of the i-aim machine. Maybe you have to buy some shares or maybe just enter a limit order and maybe next week you buy some more shares when the price is somewhat better.
Interesting point that i-aim consolidates all this functionality in one and the same machine(spreadsheet).
I must say that i found it difficult to adapt to i-aim thinking, but at this moment my perception has shifted more into the direction of i-aim, finding the btb formulas getting 'stranger'. This adaptation process is well handled by using the two methods in parallel spreadsheets together. Sometimes i have the feeling that Lichello actually wanted to invent i-aim.
Another feature of some interest is the sizing of the transactions in relation to the safe and min-txn parameters.
I-aim is symmetric in cash for buy and sell orders(using the same percentage for buying and selling) in the same way as aim-btb when using min-txn size based on PC in stead of stock value.
Each day i find new functionality. Could it be that a cash-centric view is more logical in a depression and a stock-centric view in times of high inflation? Although the interest on cash was quite high in the 70's, while now the interest on cash is maybe 1%.
Best, k
Merry Christmas to you as well!
Nice photo, thank you for posting it. The sun is so low.
Temperatures are very favorable here as well. The southern winds do not stop blowing into our direction.
All the best wishes and a superb 2016
I-Aim for IYLD
IYLD is a high yield ETF from ishares
I am AIMing a small position in IYLD
This weekend I created an inverted AIM spreadsheet:
The picture is the same as in AIM Btb except for the green line, that is portfolio control per share. In AIM BtB that line would be a hoizontal line a bit above 25$.
Portfolio control per share is increasing with dividends received. The buy and sell orders also go up with the dividends received.
This was functionality I was looking for with AIM BtB. In the past I tried to let PC/share grow with inflation or dividends received. With Inverted AIM this is automatic. It feeds the dividends back into the market, not by reinvesting dividends when received, but reinvesting using the Lichello algorithm.
Best,K
Merry Christmas to all!
Hi Ls7990,
But what to do with such cash accumulation (selling all of stock)
1 - Please note that in the Lichello example from '4 to 5 to 8 to 10' not all stocks were sold.
2 - An Inverted LD-AIM could be used, with less cash in the machine.
3 - Cash could be for a part in a PP
4 - Use of inverted vealie
5 - Restart the machine with new settings.
6 - Scale up buys when cash% is above threshold
7 - Split the machine into a more desirable configuration. The new machines could start with 50/50 cash/stock for example.
8 - In a up-market use AIM BtB, in a downmarket use inverted AIM.
9 - Will think of more options when more real experience is acquired
Best K
this makes my head spin
I use the CASH-AIM spreadsheet together with the normal spreadsheet to make it easier. CASH-AIM buys more slowly.
If you change CASH with the costs you make and dividends paid, then this will also be part of your trading range automatically. Interesting...
Best, K
Hi Toofuzzy,
See post 36906 for an explanation.
In that post you can also see the AtC(Aim the Cash) spreadsheet equivalent to the spreadsheet that Lichello is using in his book for the 10-8-5-4-5-etc.
The advantage is that cash cannot goto zero and you have automatic money management. The roles of cash and stock are reversed.
Best,K
Hi All,
Aiming GNAT from around $23.50 to now $10.95.
I think it is time for me to really use the AtC (aim the cash) system. No test mode anymore.
Recalibrated the machine and ready to do a buy on monday.
At least I have the feeling to be in control again.
Best,K
Hi Toofuzzy,
Interesting concept, they are looking for land and probably the rent price could go higher. Still, your privacy would decrease.
A lot of things to consider.
My 'solar farm' is on my own roof. The total cost is the size of a Lichello sized AIM machine. The return is 15% and the amount of sun I will get is insured, so the 15% is more or the less guaranteed, unless the government changes the rules.
I will produce(insured) 4500 kWh per year, which will be used or returned to the grid. There is no Tesla in the garage, still a VW.
Best, K
PS, this week there arrived a new broker from the UK(Idealing.com), whose trading costs are zero on Euronext. Need to compare them to see how useful they are.
The CiS system (Cash is Stock) will take care of some of the money management issues automatically. The buying will continue to deeper drawdown levels, these days a transaction cost 50 cents, so using Lichello's one percent rule, the minimum transaction size is 50 dollar/ponds/euros, so really deep drawdowns.
Another advantage is psychological: the buying is more confident, without the fear of crossing the no-cash line.
Also using 'growing' stocks for a 'cheap' price with nice earnings will help.
Best,K
PS. Today installing my solar panels, which will return 15% per year. Payback 6-7 years. That is a nice investment.
Hi LC/LS,
I try to keep Portfolio Control per share a constant value, when adding or taking funds to (from) my AIM machine.
This keeps the next sell/buy price the same, and the history of the AIM machine is not changed.
Best Regards,K
Doubling using Ocroft
Recently I had a few monthly buys in DEM.
This week an evaluation date came up for DEM and no market order was indicated anymore after a series of monthly buys.
So I took an Ocroft and bought again what was already bought, doubling the buys. PC was taken for the whole buy transaction not for half of it. My average price also improved. (so 2 times for the buy size and 1.5 times for the PC increase)
Hopefully this is a shallow dip.
Best Regards,K
UBA
Drawdown from the top for Equity plus cash, equity drawdown from the equity top and cash drawdown from the cash top :
Drawdown Percentage
Equity + cash 9.47%
Equity 8.15%
Cash 23.54%
Cash available,
The UBA spent around 17% of the cash from the cash-top.
Most machines are on their 1 month timer.
Some(VTV,VNQ,VBR,VOO,DLS) are still waiting for their first buy.
My individual-share-machine did not get any buys yet.
Natural resources/Materials buy according to their monthly timer.
International Utilities got a buy recently.
No buys in my european ETFs.(only one twinvest during the august panic). Some ETFs, i follow, are getting at the right price level to start a new machine.
Still a lot of cash available to get into those cash-excess-return-asset-classes.
Best Regards,K
Also several buy orders in the UBA, especially europe, maybe the stronger euro plus general volatility made these possible.
One noteworthy buy was in VB. VB closed yesterday at around 115, dropped to 90 today and now is at 112. I bought around 95 and my next sell order is at around 120.
In total 8 buys today up till now.
The last few weeks also had buys in VWO, DEM and DGS.
They are now on the 1 month timer.
Best, K
Hi Alton,
According to Morningstar COP has a negative free cash flow. and the payout ratio would be 216%.
All other major energy companies have Morningstar numbers that would normally not be attractive. Their cash flow has to improve to make these price levels appropriate.
In the 1930's depression oil was 10c a barrel. That is not a level that we will see(...), but 10 or 20 dollars is not impossible.
The question is then, do you want to buy now, even at AIM buy prices, or wait a bit more. You can feel the fear increasing, but despair is not available yet.
Luckily I can wait a bit longer before my next GNAT buy.
Maybe october 2015 will be interesting!
Best Regards,K
Hi All,
Today a buy in MXI - world materials sector fund
Set the timer for 30 days before looking to buy again.
Kind Regards, K
Applying AIM to CASH
One could also use 'regular' AIM on the sell side.
And then on the buy side switch to '¡inverted' AIM.
Best, K
hi ls7550,
It is difficult to think in 'topsy-turvy AIM' terminology for me.
Maybe it is useful to say that 'stock' is '¬cash' or '¡cash'.
Then 'cash' would be '¬stock' or '¡stock'.
A Nway would then be 'cash' or '¬stock'.
For example a (50% SCV-US, 40% SCV-INT, 10% SCV-EM) would be stock or '¬cash'. This could be named Nscv or SCV-50-40-10.
Then we would AIM the Nway as '¬stock' with Nscv as '¬cash'.
The dividends of Nscv could be added to'¬stock', and AIM can then determine when these dividends will be converted to '¬cash'.
The subparts of Nway and Nscv could be managed by relative size percentages or reset at AIM trading time.
best, k
Hi ls7550,
What a nice backtest tool!
Playing a bit with it, a 50% SCV + 40% SCInt + 10% EM returns a CAGR of 14.08 plus Maxdrawdown of 42%. Make sure to not use Log scale to get a good view of the results.
This combination can be built with the latest small cap dividend ETFs of Wisdomtree for example.
One could AIM this combination with a N way.
Best,K
Hi Ls7550,
Those eurobonds were certainly investable in the past as you have shown.
A savings account at this moment: 1.2%
Currently a deposit at the ING-bank here:
3 or 1 year : 0.01% interest
5 years: 0.10% interest
10 years 0.60%
For a 5 year deposit you can get 2% at some smaller banks.
A government bond 2019: -0.12% (minus)
2022: 0.08%
2037: 0.51%
So all money tend to go to savings accounts for around 1%.(sometimes 1.4%)
Best,K