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DGS - very similar here
Last buy in January of 2016.
Then 2 sells in 2016, one in June and one in July.
In 2017 3 sells, in February, March and July. The sell in July 2017 was based on a purchase in October 2015.
Parameter settings for all transactions (10,0,6,5).
Indeed International ETFs have done well for me too this year.
Best,K
Hi All,
Over the last few months UBA sells in all the International ETFs.
The economy is starting to improve over here, maybe a reminder to exchange some dollars to euros.
Last week a sell in DLS, which is moving up nicely, improving UBA's cash postion(which is in $):
Blue line is DLS price, average price is now around $25
Best, K
Hi Adam,
Looking at the cash of BRK, it could be that B&H of BRK is similar to AIMing a portfolio of stocks:)
Best, K
Hi Allen,
Interesting article on Berkshire's cash position from 2008 to now.
The graph looks like an AIMer's cash position:
http://www.investmentu.com/article/detail/54917/cotw-warren-buffett-cash-reserves-midcap-stocks#.WSFKGYVOKUk
Best, K
Hi Allen,
The figures are from morningstar:
http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=NAVI®ion=usa&culture=en-US
Under the key ratios tab you see a 10 year history. Using free cash flow numbers from that tab.
The tab financials, balance sheet give you the stockholders equity and long term debt, that is total capital.
Using numbers from these two tabs, you can do the calculations. Calculating value, you use a discounted cashflow. You can do that in a variety of ways. I use one method for all stocks to compare them. The method is from the book 'F wall street' by Joe Ponzio.
Best, K
Hi Allen,
In my calculations QCOM has a return on total capital of 12.4% and a cash yield of 6.8%. The estimated price is 59% of value.
To enter a stock I like the price to be 50% of value or lower. Starting with a LD-AIM machine, not buying a core holding, the first buy could be at:
$55- 0.15*55 ~= $47.
That would be a nice starting point for accumulation.
This all is just mathematics, no opinion on the stock itself, their management etc.
One stock I am looking at at this moment is NAVI(navient corp). It has a return on capital of 36.9%, a cash yield of 29% and is 9% of value. The dividend is 4.46%. PE is 8. Looking at their business they could be wildly impopular in the US, I can only look at the numbers and do not know anything about their business.
What do you think about NAVI?
Best, K
UBA sell VGK (TSM europe)
DLS,
My targets for trading are: ~$57.15 and ~$69.80. Close:)
Last buy was in sept '15 with a $54 handle, I missed the $52 handle in Feb '16.
I am still building cash, overall cash level is 22.6%, emerging markets went negative cash in the second half of 2015 and beginning of 2016.
Best, K
UBA sell: EFV(ILCV) and DLS(ISCV)
UBA sell today: VGK(europe)
Also hitting an error
I get 5 lines of warnings similar to this one:
Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/momoney15/public_html/wp-content/themes/u-design/functions.php:1893) in /home/momoney15/public_html/wp-content/plugins/iq-block-country/libs/blockcountry-checks.php on line 368
There is something there that says blockcountry?
Best, K
Aim sells
This week sold: VTV,DGS,VWO,DEM,VOO
Last week: DLS
Best K
More books with formulas:
These I have as well:
Investments - Schaum
Business Mathematics - Schaum
Essentials of Investments - Bodie, Kane, Marcus
Books
The AIM book and the Value Averaging I like as well(both in possession).
F Wall Street by Joe Ponzio
This book has formulas to value individual stocks(or any asset)
which can be used in an AIM portfolio. The method is similar to the Joel Greenblatt method.
Hi Lostcowboy,
This was posted on the AIM board, better do it here:
I copied the Current Stock Prices from the Twinvestnew spreadsheet to the Synchrovestnew spreadsheet.
Synchrovestnew is better than twinvest reinvestment but worse than twinvest 52week hi low.
twinvest and twinvest reinvestment are static.
synchrovest is dynamic and uses its own history
twinvest 52weeh hi lo ,twinvest MA and twinvest combo are dynamic and use the market data. also these are the best performers.
I am not saying they are better then the original Twinvest just different.
twinvest combo total portfolio value is more than 3 times better than total portfolio value of twinvest !
Best,K
Hi Lostcowboy,
I copied the Current Stock Prices from the Twinvestnew spreadsheet to the Synchrovestnew spreadsheet.
Synchrovestnew is better than twinvest reinvestment but worse than twinvest 52week hi low.
twinvest and twinvest reinvestment are static.
synchrovest is dynamic and uses its own history
twinvest 52weeh hi lo ,twinvest MA and twinvest combo are dynamic and use the market data. also these are the best performers.
I am not saying they are better then the original Twinvest just different.
twinvest combo total portfolio value is more than 3 times better than total portfolio value of twinvest !
Best,K
Hi Lostcowboy,
I was very Interested in why Mr. Lichello did not go with Synchrovest instead of Twinvest.
This is something that occupies my thoughts as well.
Lichello: Fans of Synchrovest might insist that I wildly underestimated the Synchrovest potential for the average employed investor. page 33
He describes his unemployment situation in the book.
From there on he explains how he got to his Money Machine.
And he says: I wanted a system that took profits as soon as they appeared rather than waiting for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. page 36( I read that as the 100% sellrule of synchrovest, he says that that 100% is a major hurdle)
Now with Synchrovest sell rule of 50%, or why not 20% or 30%, that pot of gold is closer.
But he made the switch to AIM and then needed a 'savings plan' to get to a full AIM machine: Twinvest.
Although he also says that accumulators could use Twinvest for pure accumulation(he mentions the well-heeled Gelt Belt).
Maybe a nice accumulation would be the world index using Twinvest.
Twinvest also uses the start price in the Coding Multiplier, to make it super simple and easy executable with paper and pencil.
Best,K
Hi Allen,
In INT there is one ETF missing: EFV - InternationalLargeCapValue
Sorry about that.
The whole UBA started after the 2009 event and was built partly on what was (randomly) bought during 2008/2009.
It was an attempt to structure things and the UBA philosophy, backed up by DFA, French, Fama etc. seemed a good starting point, the more so because you have many slices to AIM.
So I decided on VGK and VPL in stead of VEA for example. And also made a tetrad in EMM(also counting VSS).
The percentages were not 10% each at the start. Also there is the problem on what to calculate the percentages: machine value, equity value, portfolio control value? I remember that I began with Portfolio Control value. Machines that bought a lot, increased in size(lately EMM) and machines that didn't (VTV for example) did not grow so much. I have learned that in the UBA, every AIM buy should be made for this reason, only be careful with a sustained slide.
So my percentages are a bit random(also by definition), although I had home bias because of the start pieces. So my percentages are without information and I think you should target 1/N, as Tom is doing.
I am looking at transferring the whole thing to Euros. I started at around $1.40 to 1 euro. At this moment it is $1.05 versus 1 euro. The long term plan was to move to euros when it is $0.80 to 1 euro. I actually AIM the dollar vs the euro and move dollars to euros, the next sell/buy level is $1.04.
Here at home I don't have the same ETFs as in the US, but new ETFS were introduced: worldwide Value, Momentum, Liquidity, Low volatility(AIM?) and combining these with geographic diversification could make a nice portfolio, which will not be a strict UBA, but will diversify over geographies, factors and what other niches I can find. All 1/N measured in PC while also maybe rebalancing on the AIM buy side.
Best, K
2016 UBA review:
This is the status of my UBA as of today.
All tax(1.2% per year on total value) has been paid, so the value per share is after tax.
No cash interest was added to the cash part of each machine, that is something around 0.5%-0.7% per year on cash.
So a conservative picture.
The total drawdown(cash + equity) is in US dollars : 0.95%
In euros the UBA is breaking out.
Because my International part is large, the Int equity price increases this year(2017) so far are very welcome and I hope on a further return to the mean.
The parts of my UBA are:
US: VOO, VTV, VB, VBR
INT: VGK, VPL, VSS, DLS
EMM: VWO, DEM, DGS
REIT: VNQ, VNQI
All these ETFs are a separate machine, fully managed by AIM, and never rebalanced.
Lately I have been thinking of moving to:
US: VOO, VTV, VB, VBR all 10%
INT: VEA(10%), VYMI(10%), VSS(20%)
EMM: VWO(10%)
REIT: VNQ(10%), VNQI(10%)
Another consideration is that at a certain point the UBA must be moved to Europe because of US estate tax.
So a lot to consider, but any action will be slow.
Best, K
Hi Allen,
very low to extremely low chance of going under, either as an individual position or ETF/ETN.
Two Wisdomtree ETFs that were AIMed by me were taken down by Wisdomtree: DBU and GNAT. GNAT would have been a nice play on the natural resources rebound. DBU was more a play on the dollar, and would have been more on the buying side.
This is the second time that this happened to me: Wisdomtree stopping an ETF.
So I agree fully: AIM an ETF that will stay.
(still have MXI - worldwide natural resources)
Best, K
Sale today in my UBA, 5% VTV and also a sale of 5% MXI
Hi Allen,
Am I correct in understanding that you run your whole portfolio in one AIM basket and also track each position individually in AIM as well and that is what you mean when you say "iAIM"?
correct, one basket and iAIM is inverted AIM, for deep buys. this only for stocks, ETFs are in other machines.
Are you using the whole portfolio AIM as a way to re-balance the amount in each position periodically
No rebalancing, only AIM and iAIM.
You can rebalance if you want to or exchange a stock for a 'better' one. I buy only 'value' stocks, and if they are not 'value' anymore exchange them for better 'value'.
I like a dividend for each stock. Herbalife had perfect 'value' numbers, and a lot of value investors were invested also from Graham and Dodds ville(as far as i could see). The only thing they didn't do was paying a dividend.
Berkshire also does not pay a dividend. Buffett prefers VOO for 'simple' investors. VOO seems to be safer than BRK; VOO pays a dividend and it did not need a rescue in 2008.
If you get AIM sells you can terminate a stock and if you get AIM buys you can buy a new stock. iAIM for price enhancement. Manage your PC when you shift cash.
iAIM is not necessary, but produces activity while in the global hold zone.
Best, K
AIM sell
yesterday in my stock machine. Looking at today, I am a happy seller.
AIM was indicating a sell for weeks and yesterday I pulled the trigger. The envelope of the stock machine is managed by AIM, while individual stocks are observed by iAIM. My position in GLW was terminated with a 15% profit and I sold 20% of my STX at $38 (bought at $19 by iAIM during the hard disk panic).
I think I will take all sells these days.
Best,K
Hi Tom,
Nice software for a nice stock!
The two buys seem to have a time-distance of one or two weeks. Their value difference is around 10%.
Did you change your 1 month waiting rule?
AAPL seems to be a good value stock, with lots of cash and good earnings. There are a few things: Steve Jobs is gone and Apple is huge, can it still grow? There is maybe competition for the iphone from China and samsung. (I am not an apple user)
Best, K
UBA update
The draw-down of this UBA is now 2.36%. The draw-down of the equity part is 0.22% and the draw-down of the cash part is 43.8%. The draw-down is calculated for the maximum value reached ever. The maximum value was reached on different dates for each part.
Especially emerging markets were increasing in value lately. Last friday there was a 5% VWO sell a bit above $37 with a 26.1% gain. The corresponding buy was around $29.5
Best K
Hi Toofuzzy,
big learning curve
I trade shares, ETFs, and currencies(AIMing US$ versus Euro) on the IB platform. Although some press messages say the platform is not easy, I had no problems whatsoever. If there is something I use the phone and it gets solved. The administration here is in the UK and sometimes I got euronext dividends in GBP in stead of euros. I did not like that and they could not solve it. The same ETF traded in frankfurt had the dividend in euros. Funny.
Those ETFs I moved to DEGIRO, another broker here. This broker does not allow for you to lend your shares and ETFs, they take that money themselves. However their trading costs are very low(lower than IB) and for a list of 1000 ETFs the trading costs are zero.
So IB's lending is very welcome.
Best, K
Hi Toofuzzy,
Only lending now for two days, so my experience is very limited and I have yet to receive my first dollars from lending. Only US shares or ETFs are lent, European stuff not yet(?).
Lending rates vary with the security. And each day it is different.
For example : DEM net fee rate is 1.48% and the next day it is 1.42%. IAU had a net fee rate of 0.10%, VB 0.38%, VBR 0.75% and the next day 0.70%, VPL 0.51% and the next day 0.46%, VTI 0.07%, VTV 0.32%. This is all the data that I received the last 2 days.
(IB managed securities lent activity)
I assume the net fee rate is a yearly rate applied to the Collateral Amount. I thought I would be paid on a daily basis but there seems to be some lag between the lending and the receival of money. 50% is for IB and 50% is for me. IB manages the whole thing.
The net fee rate is dependent on the factors that determine short selling.
When I have more answers, I will post them here.
Best, K
Hi Toofuzzy,
There is no tax on dividends here. The tax that is subtracted in the US, whatever it is, is returned by the tax office here on a yearly basis. You can cancel it against your income tax for example.
A nice thing is that IAU is also lent. Then your gold returns an income as well.
Maybe you can write options as well against IAU. Have to read up on options:)
Best, K
Hi Toofuzzy,
I got an email from IB telling me how much income I missed by not participating. The same email had a link to information about it and how you can start the program. In the case of IB, you have to change a setting on the account management website. To stop participating in the program you undo that same setting.
There is no difference in tax(dividend tax). Dividend tax is returned to me by the dutch tax system anyway, this is dependent on the tax treaty between a country and the us, for some countries there is a difference in tax.
I cannot refuse to have shares lent other than not participating at all and then i wont get rental income. I always saw those payments in lieu of dividend , and I guess that IB got 100% of the rental income.
Just started with it, so hope to get to know which ETFs do well in this scheme. There are people trading ETFs, looking at both options and at lending, to see if that ETF is ok to trade.
Best, K
UBA
I am now participating in the Stock enhancement program of Interactive Brokers. In the past, when dividends were paid, I got the message 'payment in lieu of dividend', which means the shares were lent. Now that I participate in the program 50% of the lending gains are available as rental income.
On day one of this new lending activity:
Net fee rates:
DEM 1.48%
VBR 0.75%
VPL 0.51%
Hope to get some additional income this way.
Best,K
UBA update
Just back from my holidays in France and had 6 sells in my UBA while away:
DEM,VB,VNQ,VNQI,DGS,VBR.
Best,K
Hi Adam,
The chart shows well!
I was not looking at the price behavior of TCK when I did the i-AIM run. Only after the fact did I look at the price chart of TCK and on the morningstar website to see the numbers. Only was interested in the deep diving behavior.
This is not a judgement on TCK at all.
Best,K
Hi Ls7550,
I did another run on the price series.
Used i-AIM for buying, did the last buy at $0.98 and then there were 1805 shares and $554 cash.
Then when the selling starts switch to regular AIM. PC has changed using the normal rules. Now the selling starts at $4.98 and at $10.67 you have 837 shares and $7104 cash.
A time based series might be friendlier for i-AIM. You might have bigger price changes percentage wise, between 2 evaluations.
Best,K
Hi Ls7550,
I have to dash out now, tomorrow I will have a better look.
One of the things i have been doing, is using i-aim on the buy side and normal aim on the sell side. Best of both worlds.
Best K
Hi Ls7550,
Thank you, post 36906 is the right one!
An important thing is that you don't have to be afraid about the cash situation at -50%, -60%, -70% etc.
Initially you allocate shares and cash, and that initial amount is all you can lose. This makes for fearless trading.
What I notice is you can start with small machines, when the price drops, you can add cash and this generates buy signals, increasing the size of the machine in a most natural way. Nicely scaling in.
Also you don't need to have all cash at the start, if you want to use LD-i-AIM in the TCK situation with initial cash $33150 and minimum cash $5452, $27698 is the LD-cash amount needed. $5452 was virtual.
Indeed it is somewhat like a Ben Graham with 50/50 stock/bonds. However because i-AIM is safe, I would imagine to use a more volatile vehicle where a potential 0/100 is not an issue.
Best,K
Hi Allen,
A variation of AIM as described in post 36904. Could also call it i-AIM etc.
Best, K
Hi Adam,
-It is a variation of AIM described in post 36904.
-It is nice for stocks, because you can not run out of money.
I had a look at morningstar and saw that TCK's cashflow is negative during the last few years. To invest in TCK would mean that I need to study this company more in depth, to see how dangerous the negative cashflow is. The momentum of TCK is ok. These days I prefer a stock with positive cashflow, and inside an AIM machine one always can rotate stocks.
Best, K
Hi Adam,
I played a bit with TCK using Google-Finance prices(adjusted).
Started at 15 Jan 2008 and bought 1000 shares of TCK at $33.15
Also added $33150 cash and started an inverted AIM machine.
Using standard parameters, buy and sell safe is 10%, minimum buy and sell is 5%. Evaluated once per month, so the next check date is 15 Feb 2008 etc.
On 15 Oct 2010 I sold my last share. At that moment cash was $161344 and share number was zero.
At that point in time you would have had options, reset the machine or use another stock or whatever. Just for fun I continued, did not reset parameters and waited for my first buy. That first buy came on 15 May 2012.
The last action was on 15 June 2016, cash was $75911 and there were 6214 shares.
During this period the lowest amount of cash held was $5452 on 15 Mar 2009. A recent low on 15 Feb 2016 was $15261.
So no parameters were changed during this run. Also one could add interest and maybe dividend, but I did not do that.
TCK is an interesting stock. Looking at where it is on the price curve, one could even start a machine now.
Best, K
UBA buys
Today AIM bought more VGK(Total Europe) and EFV(Europe/FarEast Value).
Best, K