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Really? Seems like a pretty good reason to buy all you can at $0.12, no?
Absolutely true. New investors could lose 100%, could gain 10000%+, or could end up any where in between. Looks like pretty good risk reward to me.
Well that's a good place to be then. I'm in a similar situation though I have tried to buy more at these levels.
No where but up when you're face down on the ground, right? Let's get excited about the pending deal! No sense wallowing in despair for months or years only to get the deal and realize we didn't have to be miserable the whole time. If the deal doesn't come we just write it off in a year or two. Until then, the floor we're laid out on is the floor and the sky is the limit!
I know you're hoping for success but what keeps you invested? A critical/skeptical eye is very useful in protecting wealth and the silver lining that critics see is very valuable to other investors.
Is there something redeeming about the pipeline or the pending deal that keeps you in? Is the stock down so much that it's not worth booking the loss at this time vs holding on for a Hail Mary deal? What is your opinion? Is this a good investment from here or not?
Actually, it is a pretty good reason to not state as a fact that the term sheet is dead.
Each investor has to determine what they think a reasonable size and length of time for a B-OM/IBD is. As you noted, monetary amounts had not yet been negotiated as of the information in the filing in August.
If you think no-deal after five months means the term sheet is dead, that's fine. Say you think the term sheet is dead for that reason but don't state it as an understood fact.
Since we're dealing with at least two and probably several indications (IBD will likely span UP, UPS, UC, Crohn's depending what works and what doesn't) and since we continue to incrementally improve the pipeline (EOP2 meeting, gastric fluid resilience testing, Oral B-IBD formulation plans, additional OM/IBD patents, etc.), I suspect monetary negotiations are still evolving with regard to this term sheet suitor.
The numerous CDAs also make it likely that there will be a bit of bidding competition and a go-shop period as part of DD to ensure shareholders are getting the best deal available. We have seen transcripts of these types of bidding wars and they can unfold over years.
For those reasons, I believe it is reasonable to assume that the term sheet is likely still being negotiated and definitely still in play. It's possible it has died a quiet death but we certainly have no reason to state its death as a factual occurrence.
All true. I said that the termsheet is still in play, not that it is in place. Until we hear from the company, we can never be certain of its deadness and therefore it will be in play until that time.
The value of it being in play is for each investor to decide. If one believes it was quietly euthanized then discount it heavily but don't proclaim death as a fact. With what we know, rumors of the term sheet's death are greatly exaggerated.
I think everyone understands that the term sheet is still in play for the reasons I explained.
Different delivery method and, more importantly, there would likely be a different frequency of delivery.
I think it was surmised that the optimal dosing of Kevetrin would likely involve more frequent moderate dosing compared to the infrequent spikes tested in the phase 1 trial. This is due to the short half-life.
Higher prolonged exposure may increase efficacy but also increases the chance that side effects may occur. A 1B/2A would confirm both the safety and the MOA with a larger set of patients in addition to confirming viability of the oral delivery in humans.
I think there are plenty of BPs that would take on the development of Kevetrin from here.
$50 million + trial costs + milestones + 5-10% royalties is probably achievable right now for Kevetrin. Those are relatively small upfronts to lock in a majority stake on a safe, potential p53 modulator. BPs routinely shell out more than that for me-too PD-1 and other preclinical IO targets. People focus on the tiny phase 2a too much...in the bleeding edge cancer treatment arena, BPs pay up for far less than what Kevetrin has demonstrated.
I think oral formulation with another 10-20 patient phase 2a to confirm both the formulation and confirm the previous pre-clinical and clinical results would greatly increase that offer with a minimal cost to IPIX (assuming we get a decent upfront on a B deal).
A valid objection with the exception of:
"No reason to exaggerate the term sheet, which is dead anyway."
If you are going to debate the meaning of "fully negotiated term sheet", you'll have to clarify what the term "dead" means.
If dead means deceased, expired, departed, gone, no more, passed on, or passed away, you'll need to provide some evidence for that claim. If it means something else to you, please do clarify.
There is no reason to think the term sheet is no longer in play. As you said, dollar amounts were not even negotiated in August so there is little reason to think a deal based on that term sheet would be done by now. 9-10 figures biotech deal-making can take 6-12+ months of DD alone, particularly if we give any credence to the rumors of deal shopping and bidding wars. Both IPIX and the suitor need to ensure the deal is right for themselves.
Fair enough. In this case though, due to the information (the best B-OM market forecast by a potential suitor was 15% of what the company PRed two weeks earlier), it was alleged that material information was disclosed in a private conversation with IPIX management.
Either the conversation did not happen or it should not have happened. Since there is no reason the believe IPIX management would be so foolish to selectively disclose such information at this stage, and the poster in question refused to clarify things in any concise and clear way, we can assume the conversation did not happen.
If there is any truth to the information, which I doubt, an updated forecast for B-OM market size should be publicly disclosed by IPIX.
There is a difference between guestimating and claiming the numbers came from IPIX management which is what happened.
You must understand how suspect your claims appear when the information from them allegedly comes from private conversations with management of a public company regarding material information that differs significantly from very recent official company guidance.
Both of your claims are very material information (one conflicts directly with a PR issued by the company) which you claim to be getting from an individual phone conversation with "Leo".
Here they state a $1 billion/year market opportunity for B-OM two weeks before vs your claimed $150 million/year:
www.ipharminc.com/press-release/2018/12/17/innovation-pharmaceuticals-completes-end-of-phase-2-meeting-with-fda-brilacidin-oral-rinse-to-advance-into-phase-3-clinical-trials-for-prevention-of-severe-oral-mucositis
Since you seem to avoid stating that it came from "Leo Ehrlich, CEO of Innovation Pharmaceuticals" or "Innovation Pharmaceuticals Management" can we assume that these private conversations were not held with "Leo Ehrlich, CEO of Innovation Pharmaceuticals" or "Innovation Pharmaceuticals Management"?
I think we can assume such now, but if you will clarify that you actually had these conversations with "Leo Ehrlich, CEO of Innovation Pharmaceuticals" or "Innovation Pharmaceuticals Management" I will gladly email them and call them for clarification on the matter.
I'm sorry, you may be correct if you were only talking about safety. Your use of the "=" is open to interpretation. Kevetrin may indeed be as non-toxic as sugar water. Quite a good attribute for a drug that may be used in the treatment of 50%+ of cancers, no?
Many drugs never reach a MTD (Max Tolerated Dose). When searching for a MTD, if dosages reach levels far in excess of what is required to be efficacious, the MAD (Max Administered Dose) can be used as a safe ceiling in future trials.
You can see from the Kevetrin patent and company drug studies that it does not "=" sugar water in form or function, only in toxicity.
https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/Kevetrin_hydrochloride#section=Top
The future of cancer treatment here.
I didn't see that one on the Kevetrin fact sheet.
Kevetrin Fact Sheet
1. Demonstrated P53 modulation in a preclinical settings.
2. Demonstrated improved results as a combo treatment in preclinical settings.
3. Proven safe at tested doses in a phase 1 clinical trial.
4. Showed p53 modulation in 2/2 patients in a phase 2 clinical trial.
5. Preclinical studies suggest bioavailability will be high enough to be effective when delivered orally.
Term sheet was signed in August. 6-9+ months from there to seal the deal. Possibly longer if they go shop with other CDA holders.
Cost is lower, possibly easier to get a greater variety of sites due to simpler protocol. Possibly easier to recruit for...who turns down a swish and spit to have a chance at reduced OM?
It was only a hot topic because detractors of the company insinuated that IPIX was not telling the truth about the minutes. The company reported how the meeting went.
Not true.
K data was great and B is highly likely to have an indication make it to market. A deal is being worked on and will be delivered soon.
This wasnt a post about the success or failure of the CEO. I'm very unhappy with the stock price as well as many decisions made by the CEO.
That said, he is not deserving of the outright character assassination that occurs here. The man is not a crook or a criminal, hes just fighting an uphill battle as a prerevenue biotech CEO.
And all thise shares/warrants you mention...how many has he sold? Usually scammers cash in on such things rather than hold then and watch them lose all their value. The answer is none.
There is nothing to mention. By mid-2016 we knew that we did not have the funding for the two phase 3 trials that the FDA required. We're waiting on a B-OM/IBD deal to get cash. Once we have enough, the ABSSSI phase 3 trials will quickly start. I hope you haven't been waiting 4 years for them to start...if you have, you haven't been paying attention.
Simply untrue.
There are plenty of decisions that have been made with which I disagree. Some of those I benefit from hindsight and some I don't. It's even alright if some feel that he is incompetent overall - that is an opinion.
The continued accusation of legally-actionable misdeeds, criminal behavior, and general character assassination is just disgusting.
Facts:
-This is a man who loaned millions of his personal money to the company.
-This is a man who, along with other officers, deferred significant amounts of salary.
-This man tried to limit fund raising to reduce shareholder dilution. (It backfired but was still a noble goal)
-This man pushed through 8 clinical trials over 6 years.
Questions:
-Who loans personal money to a scam they themselves are running?
-Who defers salary if the purpose of the scam is to have a lifestyle company?
-Who restrains raising money in a scam?
-Who spends massive resources on ultimately futile clinical trials if it is a scam?
Reality:
If Leo was running a scam he would have raised $30-40 million back in 2013, halted all trials, and coasted with a big salary and a bunch of excuses for decades. He isn't. He is just a guy attempting to succeed in the start-up biotech arena and bring live-saving drugs to market. He hasn't always made the right decisions and the world definitely isn't working in his favor, but he's doing his best.
I know there won't be apologies. I just hope there is a little bit of shame present when he comes through.
I hope it is felt when someone cashes out with a profit.
I hope it is felt when a loved one's life is saved by Brilacidin or Kevetrin.
Criticize the man's actions if one feels the need, but don't slander him. There is no sound reason whatsoever to believe that Leo has anything but shareholder's best interests at heart.
There are some pretty disgusting insinuations being thrown about on this board today. Many of these go beyond rational analysis. All of these are being hurled about regarding a man and team that is trying to make the world a better place with life-saving drugs.
I hope when Leo brings in a deal and kicks the pipeline back into gear, that it will be noted and public apologies will be made.
Would you care to clarify exactly what you mean when you say Leo is a charlatan or a fraud?
Those are very vague and subjective terms and thus are not very useful on their own without supporting facts.
I think it is very important for you to be crystal clear about your meaning when slinging such words at a man trying to bring life-saving drugs to market.
Does it matter? Partnership or sale ia the path forward. No more clinical trials will proceed without a partnership.
Sit back, relax, and wait for the announcement.
Please do not refer to NNVC as the sister company of IPIX. They are unrelated in every way.
IPIX has successfully conducted numerous phase 1 and phase 2 clinical trials. Given funding they would be able to proceed with at least two phase 3 trials and several phase 2 trials. Sadly, funding of that scale has completely dried up.
Things have gone completely sideways for IPIX over the past year. The reality is that significant future potential will need to be sold in exchange for survival. Fortunately our pipeline is good enough that shareholders should be able to come out ahead on a Brilacidin deal. Kevetrin still holds promise as a moonshot lotto ticket on top of that.
NNVC, on the other hand, has been able to repeatedly go back to the financing well for over a decade with no progress into clinical trials. It appears investors have finally decided that successful clinical trials are not in the cards for NNVC and the stock is being punished accordingly.
NNVC investors...well I don't see a way out for them.
Inexperience and massive error in judgement. This was Leo's greatest error and the downside to having an accountant as CEO. Our resources were overestimated and our foes were underestimated.
Why raise money at $4/share when we will soon be on NASDAQ at $12/share? Perhaps they thought there would have been a more favorable partnership born from the B-ABSSSI phase 2b success?
By the time Mako and others struck it likely became apparent that an easy path through phase 3 for B-ABSSSI would not materialize. Fund raising began in the wake of the Rosen suit and so too did the decline in the stock price continue. The rest is history.
We are long past the point where that matters though.
It's time to look forward to the necessary deal which is where our profit will be. The pipeline is worth significantly more than our market cap and so too will the terms of the deal.
Agreed with the assessment.
You forgot about the third contingent that is attempting to bring this toward zero but knows it won't fail. They're scooping up as many cheap shares as possible knowing the assets are worth much more than the market cap.
Also:
"the silence from management isn’t the norm"
It hasn't been particularly quiet. We have received a PR weekly for about a month now.
12/17 - Successful End of Phase 2 B-OM Meeting with FDA
1/2 - Additional Brilacidin anti-inflammatory patents secured
1/8 - Studies confirm Cisplatin remains preferred chemo (B-OM is relevant)
1/14 - Study shows Brilacidin is resistant to stomach acid.
Incorrect. You don't buy a stock at what you think the value is. You buy it under that value in order to make a profit when it reaches your anticipated valuation.
$15 billion is just silly.
$150 million is not.
That's a bit of an exaggeration. Kevetrin has:
1. Demonstrated P53 modulation in a preclinical settings.
2. Demonstrated improved results as a combo treatment in preclinical settings.
3. Proven safe at tested doses in a phase 1 clinical trial.
4. Showed p53 modulation in 2/2 patients in a phase 2 clinical trial.
5. Preclinical studies suggest bioavailability will be high enough to be effective when delivered orally.
Do you believe that not one medium-large pharma would:
Pay $25 million to buy Kevetrin?
Pay $10 million to buy Kevetrin?
Pay $1 million to buy Kevetrin?
I'm guessing you won't care to justify your statement.
The stock is worth around $22 million. I believe the pipeline as-is to be worth more than $100 million. My guess is somewhere in the $200 million to $600 million range.
Kevetrin alone is worth $100 million+ as-is. If we can run a 10 person phase 2a with oral delivery and succeed in p53 modulation I think it would add another $100 million+ in value.
These are not wild or fanciful numbers for our drugs. I agree that those talking about valuations in the multiple billions are foolish. However with $100 million in cash with a phase 3 or two started we could quickly climb over a billion.
The problem isn't our pipeline, it's the finances. Those will be fixed with a single deal and we'll be a different company over night.
Big pharma prefers to pay up more for less risk. You're also neglecting our side of the table. Leo has every incentive to land as large a deal as possible AND not let this whole thing go down the toilet.
A little work in the lab ensuring Brilacidin is resistant to stomach acid breakdown may be worth an extra $5 million on the partnership.
It takes time to reach closure of a deal, particularly if there are multiple parties in the running.
Eight digits is easy. The market is currently paying over $20 million.
A purchase of IPIX assets will be nine digits if it occurs under duress. Whether that means $100 million, $300 million, or $500 million+ is anyone's guess.
On a reasonable partnership deal we will likely see nine figures upfront and definitely will see it in near-term milestones (starting phase 3). Hell, based on numerous preclinical/phase 1 oncology deal comps, Kevetrin may net us nine figures upfront as-is.
Much too gloomy. Almost to the point of foolishness.
Perhaps the offer wasn't high enough. Or perhaps the oral formulation is close. A short phase 2 with oral kevetrin could increase the value tremendously for very little work.
This was just an example for those worrying about a two patient phase 2 as far as deal making goes. Big deals happen for less.
They actually had less. They struck that deal with 0 patients in a phase 2 trial. They didnt even complete phase 1 yet.
2/2 in phase 2 blows them away. K is worth $100 million upfront as-is very easily.
@JTORENCE: Another example of $80 million upfront on a pair of targets still in phase 1.
Kevetrin has plenty of partnership value with 2/2 in a phase 2a.
You're technically right. If we get a partnership that sends the stock price higher than when we started the trial, it will have been a success. I don't care of B ultimately works, I just want to make money.