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Positive news, but definitely in the "third tier" category. This is an in vitro test so is at the earliest stage of drug development. If only I had $10 for every drug that worked in a petri dish. It's all very fine that NNVC is continuing to develop the drugs well back in the pipeline, but the only news I really care about right now is for Flucide development. I'm sure all the True Believers are confident that tox testing will start within two weeks, but right now I wouldn't give better than 25% odds that NNVC will meet its own deadline on this.
Fine. Dr. Boniuk is a philanthropist. That's good, because God knows NNVC needs charity right now. But institutional money means things like pension funds and insurance companies, which have to make money without taking excessive risks, and I can't see them investing just yet.
I have problem with nnvc building it's own state of the art facility.
The expense is an expense whether its a lease or a buy. My housing expenses don't magically disappear if I decide to rent instead of buy.
The manufacturing facility is also another source of delay. Of which NNVC seems to have in limitless supply.
the expense to build the manufacturing facility is not being borne by NNVC.
Are the Boniuks an institution?
My main point is to caution everyone who thinks an uplist means an increase in price per share. That will not drive a PPS increase - only good results from Trials will do so.
I agree. There's no point in getting greedy. A good partnership deal would be an excellent outcome for NNVC's first drug to market.
And that Hawaiian pidgin vs. Siri video is hilarious.
NNVC is still far, far from fair value.
Change your broker.
Well, just wait 7 weeks or so when tox tests are a month past due. Patience is always rewarded with this stock.
The only PR I want to see is an announcement that toxicity testing has begun.
Where are all the institutional buyers? Well NNVCD is still an OTC stock. It's not listed on a major exchange yet. And frankly, I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the institutional buyers even after that happens. Suppose I was running other people's money -- in particular, their retirement money, rather than my own gambling money. Would I put money into NNVC? Probably not until phase I trials began. This company has way, way too long a history of broken promises for the big money to go in on a big way right now.
Also, as others have pointed out, once NNVC is listed on an exchange it will be a lot easier to short it. Right now I can't short NNVC (or any other OTCBB stock) in my brokerage account. If NNVC is on the AMEX or NASDAQ I will be able to short it. More to the point, so will a lot of other people.
You should ask your broker. It isn't uncommon for things to look screwy for the first day after a stock split / reverse split. In my case yesterday my account showed twice my actual cost basis on NNVCD for the entire day, it didn't get fixed until this morning.
Well aside from other projects that will need money like Denguecide, there are reasons why NNVC might want more money for Flucide alone. They've long said they have enough money to do phase I and phase IIa trials. Well, that's all very well and good, but NNVC doesn't want to be cleaning out its bank account just as phase IIa trials complete. After all, it will be in a much better negotiating position if it isn't desperate to find a partner at that point. And by definition the phase IIa trials are small scale, NNVC is betting on a fairly unequivocal result. What if there are positive results but they are of marginal statistical significance due to the small sample used? Then NNVC would like to be able to do full scale phase II trials without going begging cup in hand.
If, as I do, you don't always assume that the best case will happen, there are plenty of reasons why NNVC would like more cash in hand now.
I find the whining a little strange myself. Everybody here owns almost exactly the same percentage of NNVC today that they did yesterday, aside from the few that dumped their shares yesterday or bought some today. The only act of dilution was the issuance of a few million shares and warrants, which amounts to a few percent of the outstanding shares. Logically that action should have dropped the share price by 3 - 5%, not 33%. So we are faced with two choices that really have nothing to do with the reverse stock split itself:
Either the shares were irrationally overbought yesterday or they are irrationally oversold today (or both). I suspect the former, and am unsurprised by the correction. The ones with rose colored glasses should be confident of the latter, so should be happy to grab some cheap shares now. In any case, the bitching about the irrational action of the stock market is pointless.
You are westing your time!
Here you still are with blinders on, defending a company that has never met its own deadlines.
I had always assumed that Flucide would be first to market. Denguecide is just another item in the pipeline, and certainly years away from being a product.
As for the $9,000,000 dilution, it is no surprise to me. I was never one of those who insisted that phase III trials could be done with the change Drs. Seymour and Diwan find under their couch cushions, as some of the boosters here seemed to think.
im fixated with the value of owning 25000 shares at 60 or 7500 shares.....i get that the math says the value of the stock is 60 x 3.5 post R/S but the actual pps is 60 and the real $$$$$$$ in my account says 60 x 7500.....i have been diluted....that is a fact
That was just my point. Contrary to Puffer's assertion, the reverse stock split had nothing to do with whether the start of tox testing is imminent.
Strange, the boosters are getting all antsy and I see this post split correction as no big deal. NNVC is precisely as far from having Flucide approval today as it was yesterday. Of course how far that is is a matter of opinion (I am more pessimistic than most). The short term moves in the price, up and down, tend to be driven by irrational factors (traders buying because it's going up, selling because it's going down, buying because they think it's hit the lower end of its current trading range, selling because they think it's hit the upper end of its current trading range, blah, blah, blah).
I said before that I did not consider the recent run up to be justified by actual progress towards Flucide approval, and I consider the recent action to just be a normal correction. Maybe now more people will agree that we need some real progress, like the start of tox testing.
It's now at 3.23 (or 0.92 for those who prefer the pre-split prices).
It is exactly as likely that the post-split NNVCD will go to $350 a share as it was that the pre-split NNVC would go to $100 a share. (I believe both to be unlikely events. I'd consider post-split NNVCD at $60 a share to be excellent.) You are fixated on the price per share when what matters is the valuation of the company and the percentage you own, neither of which changes with a split or reverse split.
Which 8-K are you referring to? The one on 9/9/13 describes the stock split. I didn't see anything about tox testing in that document.
I have not misinterpreted anything. If NNVC's management wanted to convince us that tox testing in on track, they'd do the obvious thing -- start the tox testing. Not reverse split the stock.
The stock price did not go up on the basis of the tox testing starting so why would it go down on the basis of the tox testing not starting? The usual boosters will find any number of reasons to buy the stock regardless of whether tox testing actually starts.
I don't think a reverse stock split (an entirely neutral event, in my view) has any bearing on the issue of when tox testing starts.
Wrong. I posted this: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=91764068
after a nice run up in the stock price.
Given the recent volatility of the stock the drop today is well within the region of random noise. That's not the reason I posted.
Yes and we don't hear about the pessimists anymore !
Where are they ?
You seem to be using it as an excuse for why we don't have to be concerned about the tox testing.
The construction of the manufacturing facility is progress (although it wouldn't even be necessary for a normal biotech startup, which could outsource the manufacturing). But it's not an excuse for not getting tox testing started on time, which we were assured could be done with Flucide produced in the current lab.
Yes, I've noticed that. The boosters here are absolutely blind to the obvious problems with NNVC. Such as the fact that they never seem to make any real progress towards getting a salable, approved drug out the door. I know, toxicity testing and clinical trials are just so old fashioned, they don't apply to a magical company like NNVC, whose stock price will no doubt go to $100 a share solely on press releases about more preclinical trials of viricides on mice.
I think you're counting your chickens before any of them have hatched. We're now in September. If, within a few weeks, the folks at NNVC still haven't started tox testing, they will have an unblemished record of never having met any of their own deadlines.
It's very nice that the stock price is back up to where it was in January 2011. It would be much nicer if I saw the sort of progress on Flucide where that price action would be warranted.
Thanks for the informative post on Vecoy.
I agree. Right now I give NNVC 50-50 odds of starting tox by their own deadline (end of September). Assuming that tox starts near the end of September, I don't expect it to be completed before April 2014. I certainly don't expect to see anything but the most preliminary results in 2013.
Thanks for the post. They are indeed similar but different.
Here's a short Vecoy Nanomedicines video:
How will that speed things up? Dr. Seymour has said himself that more money at this stage won't speed things up.