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JPS holders are hoping to jump on the coat tails of common share appreciation (we know it's coming) via conversion of their low value jps positions. Those who bought prefs at higher cost are now deep in a hole with no dividends foreseeable for years. That's why the jps drums are pounding for liquidation, Moelis, conversion, cram downs, free lottery tickets, extra special treatment because they are special.
The government is not going to play favorites, sorry. Their position on jps and commons is going to be, you made the investment, live with it. You made your bed, lay in it.
Calabria is on record saying all shareholders should have been wiped out, so don't go looking for any favors from him. The courts can rectify much, but those rectification's will primarily be the claims affecting the companies (derivative) and not individuals (direct). If the Companies improve, shares improve, commons = unlimited potential
Pref's = limited, capped.
The only thing working for both legacy common and jps holders is the government can not, at this point, wipe us out, but nothing prevents them from treating us like the bass-terd redhead stepchildren. They will be forced to respect previous shareholder rights through the court process, if our courts are truly justice in waiting,,and the unlawful take over will be brought to light.
+1
Great break down.
That's it! Thanks Guido. I guess Kthomp is only good with reading what he can refute with obfuscation and smoke and mirrors.
He needs to return that dag-gum bag of worthless fortune cookies and that busted crazy 8 ball.
But if you truly want to help him my friend Barrario, draw him a map out of his mom's basement. ; )
Time and time again I need to point out to the CITI wanna bees that the GSE's are not no where close to the same situation. Why is that so hard to undersand? Market cap, effect on economy, Gse's will never see bankruptcy, yet that is most likely in CITI'S future. Gse's are in a 12 going on 13 year conservatorship, never happened at citi, many more law suits for illegal government take over and running compared to citi. Do prefs understand the saying "apples and oranges"? Obviously not.
Why not compare the GSE's to the bankruptcy of Kodak or JCP. There about as much similarity and relevancy to those.
Some pref poster please provide an exact comparison of CITI and both GSE's. Market cap, capital raise number or rule, or whatever. But please no lopsided fact skewing.
Sounds like someone with big money playing games with them just like the common.
Amen, me also.
The biggest problem is the government tells the court at every opportunity..."we need to move the goal posts again"
The courts remand, delay, set the play clock 10X what is needed, etc.
At $7 and change for what???a $50 pref you'd have to do more than a simple reverse split to get par. Yikes 600 shares become 100
So you noticed the conversion was listed as an option with many other options, correct? You see these options as carved in stone? We have not heard from the investment banks yet. This is what I am talking about. JPS cherry pick that one thing and take it as the only option. It is not. It could very well be one of the others listed, or a combination of others listed negating the JPS option.
These are all OPINION PIECES with absolutely no hard proof from anyone that matters. It is assumptions or what some term an educated guess, or could be an agenda of some sort..... But I guess if your a jps holder you listen to whoever sounds smarter then yourself and just bypass doing your own DD.
Many remarks have been made through the years by government "off the cuff", so I take it with a grain of salt. Nothing is given since there are still too many variables to settle. I do know a few facts on dilution though:
It hurts the governments warrants if used in any way.
It hurts the share options for any involved investment bank or advisor.
It makes raising the appropriate amount of capital way harder the more you dilute.
It makes no sense to me (my opinion)
It (diluted shares) does not provide incentives for a BOD undertaking a very tough job of right sizing a company.
Lastly, common holders (new and/or old) will not be looking at a conversion for jps in any scenario (my opinion)
So anyone in the common structure has bias not to dilute. Now, JPS seem to think they are the sun, that the rest of those listed above, orbit around. This is exactly opposite of what is in my mind.
I keep asking how liquidation preference works with JPS when it is known now that the government will never put the GSE's in bankruptcy? This was one of the reasons the jps investors piled in years ago when Obama kept threatening liquidation, but knew otherwise. If you lose liquidation, and over half the jps pay a crap dividend, then what are you giving your money for? JPS keep talking about capital structure also, which is laughable right now. Capital structure is government senior prefs, government warrants, government all dividend and profit.
So someone who is jps holder please explain their investment thesis, but without using conversion in the explanation because then I will want you to provide solid, uncontestable proof from someone who is point in the conservatorship that has stated explicitly a conversion and how it happens.
I'm waiting, still.
For sure! Agree.
That is for sure.
I agree!
Here's the thing about receivership and liquidation pref for prefs...we all should know by now, it's never gonna happen, so what does liquidation pref mean for jps? The government (Obama) would have put them in bankruptcy if he thought he could without destroying 50% or more of the economy. If he didn't do it, no one is going to. Far too many know their importance. So, as someone on here said before, JPS are just IOU's with a dividend, a bank loan.
Capital will be incoming, I gotta hunch. ( courts, housing on fire, fees for those mortgagors who turned their accounts to fnma, forebearance fees, etc.)And when it does....
Especially love this line:
The main reason for the shaky finances that prompted the takeovers were investments in private-label subprime mortgage bonds, containing loans that didn’t qualify to be backed by the two companies but were bought as a way to fulfill their Congressional mandate to invest in affordable housing.
It flat out tells you how the government blackmailed, then raped the twins.
Just an FYI Guido.
56k common FNMA
100 shares early 2008,,and about 8k shares pre net worth theft.
The window needing fixing is the least of his worries....somethings that are "cracked" just can't be fixed, no matter how hard you try. Lol
What JPS fail to understand that will be their big downfall:
Government does not want their warrants diluted whether they exercise or not.
You can bet the investment banks JPM and MS are not going to target diluting shares they will come to own as payment, unnecessarily. Their shares and interests will be ahead of JPS and aligned with (drum roll please).....you got it! commons.
The advisors will inform government and the investment banks, and will agree, that any kind of major dilution will end badly for any funds raising. On the other hand, pref shares being IOU's can be issued from now until kingdom come at very low rates. And the pref structure can be changed as to who gets dividends and who does not.
The BOD will be paid like 99% of all company boards via common stock incentive. So, yep again (drum roll and big cymbold crash), another reason to not have a low common price.
Can JPS be bought out fairly cheap? I think so. If JPS are worth 30 billion, I think they can be had for 20 billion or less. Wipe the JPS slate clean, issue twice as many lower dividend paying noncummulative prefs. I wonder if the current pref holders would buy those prefs? Probably...a fool and his money are soon parted.
And when exactly does this conversion happen?
Who in the courts has said this will happen?
Who in the government said conversion will happen?
You JPS holders are losing value daily. No one making the big decisions has said anything about conversions, or much about JPS for that matter, because most all of their direct claims have been denied. But go ahead and keep buying them, someone has to take the loss. Lol
Sometimes I wonder if JPS means JUST PLAIN STUP_D
JPS have zero rights in conservatorship. What's so hard to understand about that? If you had or were able to exercise any right, the price would not be where it is....and falling.
That is a prime example of "justice delayed is justice denied". Our fore father's are all spinning in their graves.
Awwwwww crap lol.
Well, let's hope government is sincere about removing their hands from the cookie jar. There's always plans within plans when it comes to the government. I'm hoping Trump sticks to his "drain the swamp" battle cry in releasing the twins. If he does, then we should all be okay and those documents will see the cleansing effect of day light and public scrutiny.
+1.
13 years and counting.
Exactly! Take your own advise.
No one has asked for a conversion.
No one has asked for a reverse split.
No one has said JPS has any higher place or benefit then commons while in conservatorship.
The sentence you quoted is not a fact, it is an assumption, and one with no evidence behind it. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Nobody knows what the plaintiffs have asked for in private.
Takes real genius to invest in that.... ; )
Not a "common" truth. JPS is more like that Jim Jones cult, all drinking the kool-aid, in circle babbling, and then they figure it out, but it's too late.
That's only if the government is able to settle! Going to be tough with how many times they've stepped on investors pee pees over the years. Just saying....not everyone will be on board for settlement if they think the courts will force a better outcome.
+1 thanks for pointing out the obvious to those who are thought challenged.
Pref's think they will get 110% par, back dividends, and then conversion of 100 commons per 1 pref, then they will let commons go to 50$, after which they will get given money hand over fist from MC and SM because they have direct claim of their feelings being hurt. THIS IS THE DREAM IF YOU'RE A JPS HOLDER. But alas...it's just a dream.
100% truth in that post!
He has that affect on people. Lolol
Please don't be discouraged in providing your view! I'm sure most find it interesting and any honest information is appreciated by most here. Others just like to argue, and argue, and argue, and argue some more their favored outcome.
Like waiting at the DMV for your plates or tags, could take way longer than you would expect. SCOTUS will probably waffle on the decision, add some mumble legal jumble to give them and government wiggle room or deniability. I am not optimistic on the courts with how long they have already suspended us in animation for years. Christ sake, judges are retiring! They probably would have told you when they received the case that no way they would be retired before it is settled. Who in their right mind would have wanted a judge on the case if they knew it was going to take 12 years, and said judge would probably retire before the case was resolved! Do our courts work? Hell no.
Have you seen all the business and Wallstreet articles talking about a Re ipo on the GSE's while government still has them in C-ship? Are the articles predicting a gazillion investors who want nothing more than to get into bed with the government? Lol
Your dreaming is futile.
If the stars align with the courts, payback, restitution for government malfeasance,cancelation of warrants. Then, we would easily see $20-30, in my opinion.
Also, many are forgetting to keep in mind...the government has stated there is a strong possibility that they will do multiple offerings over time. So dilution will be managed in my opinion and also dilution will not be only a common shareholders problem. Government is on record that the pref's shareholders are in same boat.