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Thank you very much.
To:Lucretius who wrote (219939)
From: mishedlo Sunday, Feb 9, 2003 2:04 PM
View Replies (2) / Respond to of 219991
All this charting. For what?
It is so simple if they would jsut stop in here once in a while.
Just Buy Puma and short gold.
What could be simpler?
M
Are you short gold?
How do you post charts in IHUB without links.
Something like the "2:22pm" thing going around.
Obviously you don't really know him, maybe someday you will get the privilege.
Urban Legend?
``If you're not already in gold, this probably isn't the best time to be getting in,' said John Murphy, chief technical analyst at StockCharts.com
From Bloomberg.com
It made its way to the New York Times in Review. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=728801
http://www.nytimes.com/auth/login?URI=http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/09/weekinreview/09WORD.html
From Excitement to Horror: Columbia's Last Flight Online
By TOM KUNTZ
The 1937 Hindenburg airship disaster was carried live to a large radio audience. The 1986 space shuttle disaster happened live on network television before millions of stunned viewers. Almost from the beginning, the 9/11 attacks were broadcast live worldwide.
Last weekend's shuttle disaster also unfolded live, but the primary medium was arguably not radio or television. It was the Internet. A small audience of space enthusiasts learned of trouble in real time by tuning in to mission control in Houston via NASA TV's Webcast (also available via satellite dish and some cable providers).
Some of the shuttle trackers in the western United States also kept an eye on the skies, and shared their impressions online. An illustration of their reactions, moving from excitement to confusion to horror, can be found in an online discussion for shuttle buffs on the Free Republic Web site; it was begun by a reader 38 minutes before the Columbia's scheduled 9:16 landing (www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/833885/posts).
The first sign of something wrong comes at 9:05 — at least 11 minutes before The Associated Press moved the first wire-service alert and the TV networks began live coverage (which had the first video of the breakup, shot minutes before).
Excerpts from the online discussion follow. All times are Eastern unless otherwise noted.
The discussion was begun by "leadpenny" at 8:38 a.m.:
Space shuttle Columbia is in a descent for the Kennedy Space Center in Florida and will pass over the San Francisco area around 6:00 a.m. Pacific Time. Route will take the shuttle over Las Vegas, Flagstaff, etc. NASA has still not decided which runway will be used. Landing will be at 9:16 a.m. Eastern.
From leadpenny at 8:42:
I'm watching on NASA TV but I believe you can also watch at nasa.gov. Just north of Hawaii now.
From SamAdams76 at 8:42:
As I write this, the Shuttle should be re-entering the atmosphere of the planet Earth.
From leadpenny to SamAdams76 at 8:44:
We can only hope.
From winodog at 8:53:
I am up and in Vegas. Sounds like I better put some shorts and a T-shirt on and go outside to watch.
From leadpenny to winodog at 8:54:
Just a few minutes away from you.
From leadpenny to winodog at 8:56:
45 miles overhead just to the north of you.
From ken in texas to leadpenny at 8:56:
Supposed to be passing by around 8:03 [C.S.T.] here in Dallas. Getting ready to check it out.
From winodog at 8:57:
Wicked!!!! I was just in time to see it streak across leaving a white trail.
From leadpenny to ken in texas at 8:57:
Hope you have clear skies.
From leadpenny to winodog at 8:58:
Was it glowing at all?
From winodog to leadpenny at 9:00:
It came from just north just like you said. I was out looking already. As soon as I read the time it hits S.F. and touchdown time I knew I better hurry up. That is on the list of cooler things I have ever seen. Thanks!
From leadpenny at 9:01:
15 minutes to touchdown. Heads up north of New Orleans.
From winodog to leadpenny at 9:03:
It wasn't a glow that spread back like a comet but it must have been "on fire" because it was bright and big.
From ken in texas to leadpenny at 9:04:
Perfectly clear . . . what a sight!!!!!
From leadpenny at 9:05:
Little commo [communication] problem right now.
From leadpenny at 9:07:
Still no UHF commo. They gotta have backup.
From leadpenny at 9:08:
Seven minutes to touchdown.
From leadpenny at 9:11:
No commo for the last 11 minutes. Five minutes to touchdown.
From leadpenny at 9:13:
Don't know if anyone is watching NASA TV but it is awfully quiet.
From leadpenny at 9:13:
By now there would have been cameras on the shuttle.
From leadpenny at 9:15:
Don't know about the controllers but my pulse is going up. They are still seeking tracking data. Going to contingency procedures.
From don-o at 9:15:
Contingency procedures.
From leadpenny at 9:15:
Folks we are at touchdown. Something is wrong.
From ken in texas to leadpenny at 9:15:
An unsettling quiet. I hope all is well.
From nicepaco to leadpenny at 9:16:
Hope they find them soon.
From SMEDLEYBUTLER to leadpenny at 9:17:
No radar track either. Hope everything is all right and this is only a technical snafu. Should be visible from the Cape [Canaveral, Fla.] by now.
From leadpenny at 9:17:
Everyone, check the networks.
From 1john2 3and4 to ken in texas at 9:17:
This really happened: got to this thread, clicked on browser to get NASA TV, heard sonic BOOM, Fort Worth (just after 8 a.m.), run outside, MASSIVE contrail leading right into the eastern sun. . . . . . . awesome!
From SamAdams76 to leadpenny at 9:19:
I hope everything turns out okay.
From leadpenny at 9:19:
It should already be down. Nothing!
From don-o to leadpenny at 9:20:
Folks, I fear the worst has happened.
From leadpenny at 9:21:
The Columbia was making four drastic turns over the Western U.S. to dissipate speed. That's the last they heard from it.
From don-o to leadpenny at 9:24:
Anything on TV, besides NASA TV?
From McGruff to leadpenny at 9:24:
This is scary! I was monitoring your thread when MSNBC started having someone on who was saying: "We should have seen it by now. It should be here by now."
From My back yard to McGruff at 9:26:
Prayers going out. Hope they aren't too late.
From leadpenny to McGruff at 9:27:
They should have had cameras on it about 10 minutes out. I fear the worst.
From 1john2 3and4 to My back yard at 9:28:
Prayers
From SMEDLEYBUTLER to leadpenny at 9:29:
Unconfirmed reports of debris discovered in Texas. Looks as though the shuttle has been lost. God bless the crew.
From McGruff to leadpenny at 9:29:
CNN showing video of it breaking up over Dallas! It's gone!
From leadpenny to ken in texas at 9:30:
You may have been the last to see the Columbia.
From 1john2 3and4 to leadpenny at 9:35:
Dear lord . . . what I heard was the EXPLOSION! not a sonic boom.
From leadpenny to 1john2 3and4 at 9:36:
Are you in Texas?
From 1john2 3and4 to leadpenny at 9:40:
Yes . . . Ft. Worth.
From Molly Pitcher to ken in texas at 9:47:
It's said to have broken up over Dallas. Was it intact when you saw it? Or did you see multiple trails?
From ken in texas to Molly Pitcher at 9:53:
At first I was just in awe of the sight. After it passed from view I realized that something just didn't look right. Instead of just one glowing spacecraft it looked as if there were smaller glowing pieces moving off and away from it. In retrospect, I realize that it was breaking apart.
From Molly Pitcher to ken in texas at 10:10:
Okay. Thanks, the fellow in Vegas just ahead of you probably saw it intact then.
From My Favorite Headache to leadpenny, 1:17 p.m.:
This thread needs to be saved as a piece of symbolic history . . . of the last moments of Columbia.
From seamol to leadpenny; don-o; ken in texas; winodog; 1john2 3and4; all, 11:48 p.m.
Thank you for your contribution to history today.
Thank you for explaining. I have heard of "Namaste" before but could not remember when it was used.
"Namaste" something to do with Indian culture.
Have any of you seen EP fall of the cliff lately. The utilities are still in trouble.
WOW! I played it backwards and it said I was the next "Joe Millionaire".
IHUB slow and locking up. It's the only site doing this.
Because the shorts have been winning for one and because I had direct experience with it.
Needham upgraded FDRY to BUY (just before Christmas Holidays a few years ago) couple of days before earnings and then FDRY warns. What does Needham do the after the day after warning.... They Upgrade again to STRONG BUY and the stock got pounded again. I am sure Needless Needham was not the life of the Christmas party. All of the above in my opinion of course.
I wrote a letter to the analyst and he wrote back saying he would like meet me in person to see how tough I am.
Good Luck your going to need it, ROFLMAO. In all seriousness your trading tool has to be shorting on any anyalst upgrade rallys.
IHUB is running qurkie again. It's really hard to post now.
He/She has ZERO bookmarks, so no one follow him anyway.
I did not know Ashcroft made those decisions.<vbg> Maybe Bush will put IRAQ on hold and focus on N.K.
NO ONE listens to Analyst upgrades in this environment. It's not worth the time.
The war will be unpredictable. A sure bet would be to buy equities on the dip of initial shock of war. Then the next day we rally. Don't be caught short after 10:00 am day after war begins. After the brief rally get back to shorting.
I have never seen a President say so many times in a short period that we are heading for war. Its been over and over and over in the media. If you ask anyone on the street if we are going to war with Iraq they will comment "I thought we already at war". We SURELY will get a WAR RALLY. The war is priced in this market.
"The Damage is Done, You got to beeelieve me." Justin Timberlake song fit fairly well.
Yup sales tax on web sites will hurt the business. I don't think I will buy anything on the web because of sales tax. Here the tax is 8.25% which can really ad up. I appreciate you sharing your recent experience.
I think the quality of post here are excellent during after hours. Those who don't follow at night don't know what they are missing.
Bill Gross Speaks and everyone listens.
http://www.pimco.com/index.htm
Investment Outlook
Bill Gross / February 2003
Hegemonic Decay
Vocabulary is a power builder. Every time I use the word "concomitant" in a conversation I see my listener's eyebrows go up as if to say, "what does this guy know that I don't?" Then again, maybe they're just signaling that I'm full of more than just baked beans. I suspect the latter, but either way it creates an impression. I sensed the power of the almighty word late in my teens as I was preparing for my SAT tests as a foreign exchange student in Germany. Missing the normal study manuals available in the U.S., I turned to my Funk & Wagnalls and began with "abhor," working my way through the Gs before test-time called "time out." Later, serving "midwatch" in the Navy off Vietnam in 1969, I continued the game in reverse, starting with "zymurgy" and regressing to "kinetics" by the time we sailed home to San Diego. There had been lots of midwatches, but not enough it seems to cover all 26 letters; I was missing H I J.
This deficiency never seemed to affect my career much until the last few months when I began reading in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal about U.S. "hegemony" in connection with post 9/11 maneuverings in Afghanistan, Iraq, and North Korea. This was an "H" word I had read before but never really bothered to think about. Well a "hegemony" it seems, is the dominance of one country over others not only militarily but economically as well, and as fitting a word as any of my A through Gs and Zs to Ks to describe the world's current state of affairs. There can be little doubt that we have an American hegemony. But while the United States rules the waves as well as turf and sky, I'm not so sure that we are, or perhaps will be the economic powerhouse we once were. Three years of stock market declines, a 20% devaluation of the dollar over 10 months, and an inability to serve as the global economy's locomotive despite massive monetary and fiscal stimulation suggests America's "shining city on a hill" may have lost some of its sheen of late. The US of A it seems is becoming less wealthy by the minute as foreign investment is withheld and in some cases redirected to Chinese and other more attractive ports of call. Economically, we may have begun a process of hegemonic decay and if true, at some point we will have to put that in our Funk & Wagnalls and smoke it. Let's see why.
The initiation of U.S. hegemonic decline can't be blamed on any single source. Excessive build up of private debt, which in part led to an investment and stock market bubble, has been a primary culprit. Our overvalued dollar and a near historic trade deficit are in the running for the hegemonic Oscar as well. But if all of these be ingredients, there is no doubt that 9/11 was the significant catalyst, despite its coming more than a year after several of these economic and financial trends experienced their peaks. In the aftermath of 9/11 it became apparent to George Bush and the Washington defense establishment that future conflict would perhaps be not only near perpetual, but of a nature quite different from Desert Storm over a decade ago. While the eradication of Iraq from Kuwait was a single purpose conflict, today's potential invasion of Iraq is but one of a multitude of steps that hopefully leads to terrorist containment as opposed to the eradication of Islamic extremism. Bush has in no uncertain terms said that our future struggle will be a never-ending story as opposed to a single shot kill. If so, investors must know that perpetual containment entails costs - not just monetary but those involving potential policy reversals that have formed the backbone of America's economic hegemony for nearly seven decades.
That such a hegemony has been based upon (1) America's military domination and (2) America's superior economy as reflected by the dollar's ascension to the top of the pile as the world's reserve currency - is undeniable. All hegemonies including Britannia's (since the fall of Napoleon to the end of WWI), have shared similar characteristics. As current leader of the pack, America has been able to implement policies (free trade, open capital markets, and a strong currency) which have not only reflected its political heritage and philosophy but have added dollars and cents to its citizens' pocket books, as well as SUVs to their driveways. But the U.S., unlike the British Empire rests on a fragile foundation built upon consumer spending and trade deficits as opposed to mercantilism and trade surpluses, which characterized Britannia's rule. These deficits, coming at a time of American military expansion in pursuit of terrorist containment, threaten to reverse our hegemonic benefits and end our economic domination. Our SUVs, as well as our top cat near-monopoly of the good times are at risk.
Although I may have absorbed part of the dictionary, I by no means am a policy wonk from some Washington think tank. Perhaps I've confused either you or myself in the last few paragraphs by reference to containment and hegemony based on military power and economic efficiency. Let me get a little more basic - exchange my Funk & Wagnalls for the abridged office edition of the American Heritage dictionary. Because of 9/11 and our necessity to fight a new kind of war, America is losing its peace dividend at a time when - because of our high debt, over-consumption, and reflective trade deficit - we cannot afford to. Guns and butter will soon extend our global credit card to its limit. Our foreign lenders are beginning to make some increasingly urgent phone calls to pay up or else and they are enforcing their demands by selling the dollar and buying almost any other currency that represents the economic philosophy of Ben Franklin as opposed to George Bush.
The end to the strong dollar is but the most visible reversal of U.S. hegemonic policies in recent months. Our promotion of free trade and open capital markets is suffering as well. Last year's U.S. steel and lumber tariffs are being supplemented by an embargo of Chinese containers in Hong Kong and Shanghai due to their possible hiding of terrorist weapons and armaments. Mexican trucks are being halted at the Texas border on the age-old allegation of vehicle safety violations. We are becoming a trade repressor as opposed to trade advocate and other countries no doubt will fight back.
In addition, our advocacy of open capital markets is falling increasingly by the wayside. Global financial controls are now seen as a bonafide weapon in the war against terrorism. Prominent economists such as Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz are wondering whether or not - in the example of Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad during 1998's Asian crisis - there might not be a stronger case for controlling international capital flows. And if these policy reversals don't sound warning alarms, how about Fed Governor Bernanke threatening to support any asset market decline that threatens to reinforce deflation. Come to think of it, Fed Chairman Greenspan by encouraging the belief in a Greenspan "put" has been interfering in our and other countries' stock markets for several years now. Open markets? The door appears to be closing fast.
The reversal of these policies which in the past have promoted U.S. economic hegemony are a natural reaction by foreign creditors and the U.S. debtor nation alike to its future new emphasis on terrorist containment and the costs thereof. Foreigners have and will continue to sell the dollar and U.S. investments in fear of guns and butter bills to come. America will attempt to preserve its hegemony by biasing, and in some cases reversing, free trade and open financial market policies that do not favor the U.S. All of this implies that our peace dividend, not only in the terms of lower defense expenditures, but U.S. domination of (and benefits from) free capital markets and free trade, are nearing an end. We will experience a somewhat vicious cycle of policy reversal instead of the virtuous circle of recent decades, which led to higher profits and lower inflation. In the reversal's wake will come subdued profits, higher inflation, a lower dollar and anemic financial returns.
While that may not qualify as a trip to the poor house, I have no doubt that such events signify to at least some Americans a trip to a poorer house. Many of us will have to adjust, either in the form of higher unemployment, an increased price for imported goods, or heavier indirect taxes in the form of higher inflation and interest rates. Investment strategies, both bond and equity, should put these secular reversals at the top of their A list when considering opportunities to make relative and absolute returns. Hegemonic decay will impose costs unimagined just 16 months ago during the innocent hours of September 10th, 2001.
William H. Gross
Managing Director
YOU GUYS ARE GOING TO LOVE THIS! Especially the SHORTS! You have tax, shipping and handling. Might as well head for Best Buy.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31210-2003Feb5.html
Major Dot-Com Retailers Begin Levying Sales Tax
By Brian Krebs
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Thursday, February 6, 2003; 12:00 AM
Some of the nation's largest retailers this week started voluntarily collecting taxes on all of their online sales.
The companies are among the first in the nation to collect sales taxes from online shoppers across the country, not just shoppers who live in the states where the companies maintain actual stores or distribution centers.
In return, 38 states and the District of Columbia agreed to absolve the retailers from any liability for taxes not previously collected on Internet sales.
Arizona, California and South Carolina are not parties to the deal, and four other states have not yet signed on. Most of the retailers involved have physical locations in the 45 states that levy sales taxes.
The agreement is expected to give states a new source of revenue to battle historic budget deficits. It also is a victory for state and local governments that want to simplify their tax systems to accommodate e-commerce and level the playing field between online and main street merchants.
Atlanta attorney John Coalson, who represented the retailers in the negotiations, declined to say which ones accepted the plan, saying that revealing their names would let the states that rejected the deal chase down the companies for back taxes.
"If we disclose who these companies are, it's like putting a target on their back," he said.
The companies that Coalson represented were required to begin voluntary sales tax collections on Feb. 3. No source contacted for this story would reveal the names of the participating retailers. In the past week, however, Wal-Mart, Marshall Fields, Target, Toys R Us and Mervyn's each posted new sales tax notices on their Web sites, saying that the companies will charge taxes for buyers living in the states where sales taxes are on the books.
Under current federal law, Internet merchants must charge applicable sales taxes if the buyer is located in the same state as the company. But the new deal effectively applies the same sales tax laws to retailers' online and bricks-and-mortar operations. Online units are often chartered as separate entities and maintain physical locations in only a handful of places, thus exempting customers from most states from paying sales taxes.
For example, Wal-Mart has 1,500 stores scattered across all 50 states, but WalMart.com, a separate subsidiary, has a physical presence in only nine states.
WalMart.com and other retailers who changed their tax collection rules declined to say whether they were party to the amnesty agreement. Wal-Mart and Toys R Us said they made the changes in response to feedback from customers who wanted to be able to return or exchange items bought online at the companies' bricks-and-mortar stores.
"We decided we would not be able to do that unless we charge sales tax for those online purchases," said Toys R Us spokeswoman Susan McLaughlin.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. spokeswoman Cynthia Lin said that voluntarily collecting online sales taxes was the right thing to do. "Many states are struggling with tax revenue shortages that affect funding for everything from schools to fire and rescue. This is our effort to help customers and the states they live in," she said.
A notice on Amazon.com, which has partnered with Target Brands Inc. sites like Target.com, Fields.com and Mervyns.com, says: "Effective February 2, 2003, target.direct and marshallfields.direct will be required to charge sales tax in all states other than Alaska, Hawaii, and Vermont. The new collection requirements will apply to all orders shipped and charged on or after February 2, 2003, even if your order was placed prior to this date."
The sales tax collection deal follows efforts by tax administrators in several states to find ways to tie main-street retailers to their online cousins.
California regulators last year ruled that online bookstore Barnesandnoble.com must collect taxes on sales to customers in California. The state said that although the company's two operations were incorporated separately, a link existed because the brick-and-mortar stores gave out $5 coupons to be used at the company's Web site.
"What we want to do is clarify that online sales from companies that have physical presences here are not going to [be] permitted to use their tax dodge subsidiaries to escape tax collection obligations," said Carole Migden, a member of the state's Board of Equalization, which manages the state's sales and property taxes.
Arkansas and Minnesota require Internet retailers to collect taxes if their local main-street affiliates accept returns or exchanges for online purchases. Louisiana has also considered similar legislation.
The amnesty is a symbolic victory for members of the Streamlined Sales Tax Project, a group of 36 states and the District of Columbia that approved a plan to make it easier for states to collect sales taxes on products sold online.
The project calls on states to simplify their tax codes to accommodate e-commerce, and outlines easier tax-reporting requirements for online merchants.
Diane Hardt, co-chairman of the Streamlined Sales Tax Project and tax administrator for the Wisconsin Department of Revenue, applauded the amnesty deal.
Most states have started taking concrete steps toward adopting the streamlined sales tax proposal. Congress and the White House also would have to act before the online sales tax plan could be implemented.
I think you can appreciate a link like this.
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/kond/mwhdebt.gif
Safeway Supermarket Giant Reports Fourth-Quarter Loss of $1.05 Billion
Thursday February 6, 4:27 pm ET
By Michael Liedtke, AP Business Writer
I never cease to amaze me how a company can survive losing 1 Billion of dollars expecially when margin are so small.
For some reason I think GG will sell off after earnings even with good earnings. Miners are a strange breed.
"While they were wooing us, they were building a guillotine, and nobody knew," he said..... I find that funny now that they are on the other side of the stick. The "stealer".. oh I meant dealer are very good at decieving consumers.
I am holding my breath since I know this is a no-Politic thread. All I can say is N.Korea will be a different fight. They seem to have a chip on their shoulder.
Wise move. At least you can sleep at night.
I agree. 1300 is the support. I wonder WHO is the one keeping this number as the base. 1300 is not even the double bottom figure I had.
That is why the banks offers 15 and 30 everyone has different goals. This is a bold statement but I believe 30 year loan rates will never stay below 5% for long. It's cut to the bone and the lenders fixed cost are built in with little room for lower rates. I refi recently for 30 years and paying the 15 year payments in a separate interest account (2.78%) waiting for the day CD rates go above 5.75.
Of course it's called the time value of money ie: 101 Finance. My point is since rates are Below 6 Percent take the 30 year fixed at 5.5% and pay it as a 15 year loan. At these historic low rates it's best to take advantage of the long term. Recently, 15 years was 5.5% the same as 30 today. IMHO rates are not staying this low for long and the lenders would smile greatly for a payoff of a 30 year loan at 5.5% if rates edged back up to 8%.
I said this on the first post "1/2 basis point for additional 15 years is worth it." and again aother post here "The lender will give you about 1/2 point better rate for the 15 year loan."
Maybe we can progress here without writing the same thing over again.
We never diagreed the difference of the rate between the 15 and 30 year loan. The indifference was if BOTH loans are the same rate the 30 year loan could be paid as a 15 year loan with no additional interest charge (the payoff figure would be the same). Some mortgage companies are going to the 30 year loans and offering for a fee to tell them what I been trying to explain for free.
Let just agree that we disagree. Do yourself a favor ask your loan officer for the facts.