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You know the guy writing those is someone on the board. We just don't know who.
I don't know...is that what the market is saying? We likely have less than $500K (possibly much less) in the bank right now but the market values us around $20 million. Considering we owe about $8 million in liabilities, the market is actually valuing us close to $30 million. 20-60x cash is nothing to sneeze at.
These are the exciting times where fortunes are won and lost. It will be a relief to see this tiresome saga either move forward in a real way or come to an end in the near future.
No, but that means we need to buy more time using MFO or shelf money. Saying "we don't have squat" wouldn't be conducive to self-funding more runway. Quiet sales into an undisturbed market, if necessary, are for your own good if they better your chance at a successful outcome. Sometimes you have to just trust the CEO knows what he's doing. This is one of those times. Or sell for your remaining pocket change if you don't.
Sure we do. He's likely working on one or multiple business development deals. These usually come with some form of CDA which would prevent discussing it in any meaningful way.
He'll update you when he can. Not much can be said right now....either hes working on deals or we don't have squat. Either way he cant talk.
Someone more organized than me provided the link but I'm working on it. Hopefully we get a deal signed and all the historical minutia will become just that. But credit to KarinCA for originally doing the gopher work when this was brought up years ago. Hopefully when a deal comes in many of those valued posters will return so that the board becomes productive once again.
If it was a scam, why didnt he just raise $30 million from aspire, cut back most employees and trials, and do "preclinical" work for a decade into retirement at $500k/year?
You're just not making sense.
No need, LR. Karin was kind enough to do that a couple years ago.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=129021545&txt2find=deferred
KarinCA did a very nice writeup of this in the past:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=129021545&txt2find=deferred
2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 were all deferred. Why do you lie about the deferral?
Remember that it is defamation to accuse someone of criminal activity without evidence.
I believe it was 4 years of salary deferred and as of yet unpaid.
No, I don't think he has misused any corporate funds for personal "lifestyle" expenses.
Where do you get this stuff? I hope youre prepared to back up these claims when the time comes to defend them.
No he didn't. He deferred years of salary and loaned the company $2 million to help keep it afloat. He won't be getting much/any of that back if this was a scam. He also hasn't sold one share of stock that I'm aware of.
He could have put his loan money in an index fund and worked as a CFO or senior accountant elsewhere for more than he made here the past 7 years.
The man is trying to bring drugs to market. Quit the smears.
Appears to me, they funneled the funds.
What do you want to hear? Either he's getting a pharma deal together (can't talk about it), is going to do a bridge financing (can't talk about it), is going to do a secondary/shelf sale (don't talk about it and depress the price ahead of it), or we're going out of business.
Word will come soon enough. Here's to the pharma deal!
Why does he not reconnect with Don Seiffert, managing editor of the Boston Business Journal, with whom he's corresponded with a few times before. Pick up the phone and get the word out, Bain Capital has an office in Boston, along with many others. He appears to prefer to share company info with retail investors only.
He likely can't talk about any deals he is working on. We just have to have faith that he comes through.
Incorrect, it means there has been a buyer and MMs have had to short in order to fill the orders rather than let the orders rise to the ask.
The company never had $20M in hand. True.
The company never had a phase 3 trial. True.
The company still reached a market cap of around $480M. True.
What is it you are arguing against?
My scenario is signing a partner, having them fund your phase 3, and actually starting a phase 3 in addition to having $20M in the bank as an upfront payment.
That is worlds apart from having $9 million in the bank and the option to fund a $30M phase 3 trial using stock sales to Aspire.
The Company has never had $20M in hand, at least in part because the CEO had the good sense not to. His preference to not leave a lot of cash sitting around collecting dust WHEN HE COULD HAVE was a redeeming feature.
In fact the Company had BOTH
I was addressing Rdunn and his concern that 20 million and a funded phase 3 would do us no good. A much better situation than 2015 when we had neither and a much larger market cap.
If we get such a deal.
No. There is a difference between being able to raise $20+ million by selling stock and actually having it in the bank. Big difference.
Partners foot the bill. That's how it works. They skip all the R&D uncertainty and pick up phase 3 candidates likely to succeed. They pay us and upfront and milestones in order to secure 80%+ of the future sales.
If $30 million for the company was the best offer then they would probably take it. They can likely get significantly more ans therefore do not sell for that price.
Nah, partner is paying for OM and IBD trials. Once milestones are hit we get milestone payments.
Kevetrin oral formulation and a phase 2a (10-20 patients) leading to a partnership will be more like $5-10 million. Partner it for big cash if it works.
B-ABSSSI likely on hold until more money is available. Likely an anti-infective partnership for ABSSSI, Acne, AD, and HS. Separates the platform into anti inflammatory and anti infective partitions.
Also, the company has never has $20 million on hand OR a phase 3 trial and still reached a market cap of around $480 million. $20-30 million + a phase 3 + third party validation could easily bring us back to there.
Doesnt need to be that big if they're picking up the trial costs. 20-30 million upfront really gives us some runway to make it to milestone payments or a Kevetrin deal.
People just don't understand how long these things take. If our original term sheet is still in place I would expect a deal in the Mar-May time frame (6-9 months from the term sheet agreement). If there is no term sheet in place I would guess Q4 for a deal with one of these "advanced discussions". We're only two weeks from Q2.
PS I am still rooting for the bigger dividend payers Pfizer and J and J.
Within the last 30 days we learned:
-New B-OM patent
-Irish Subsidiary formed to facilitate international development of clinical pipeline
-Requested EMA input on international phase 3 in both US and Europe.
That's some pretty good stuff.
We have not received a status update on the term sheet. It may be dead or it may be that all of these developments could be related to the term sheet. We simply don't have enough information to know for sure.
Prurisol died in 2018. As we move in to the second quarter of 2019 you will eventually have to accept the loss. The tears have been shed, it's time to walk away from the grave and nurture the future.
Leo needs volume for MFO sales
Exactly why he stages fluff press releases every 2 weeks.
$1 billion is pretty small. CTIX was near $500 million in 2015. $1-2 billion pharmas likely don't have a patented drug on the market.
Here are the top 25 of 2018. REGN and TAK are near the bottom at ~$37B.
If we partner up with a $1-2 billion pharma, odds are most of us won't have heard of them before.
I'm still skeptical of the whole tale though. I'm betting our partner ends up being one of names in the Europe column.
2) big pharm interested ? : no, he said big pharms are not interested. b/c they are interested in drugs that cure for cancer. ipix's would-be drug is not. therefore, small and medium size pharms are interested in ipix (some of them $1 billions companies ).
I doubt it will be toxic. This trial will be large. It will likely cost $15 million or more.
Assuming we could sell shares at $0.12, with unlimited volume, and no negative impact on the stock price, that would require 125 million shares to be sold. Of course, that is unrealistically rosy and we would likely be unable to raise $15 million ATM.
In order to get that price with a 2018 Aspire-type deal (roughly market price but 1:1 warrant sweetener) we would be talking 125 million shares and 125 million warrants. That would be 250 million shares added to the current 180 million if we succeed and make it to market.
I don't even want to attempt napkin math on a MFO deal (convertible debt) as it would be a disaster.
It almost certainly has to be a pharma pipeline deal. Competition to lock down Brilacidin is the only thing that can get us a fair shake at this point.
Likely a pharma deal. We can't finance a phase 3 with our shelf and judging from the rapidly deteriorating terms of the previous few financial agreements they probably aren't an option either.
I don't think the company would continue to PR such specific and grand plans without reasonably believing they have a path to achieve it. Any kind of business development deal can fall through at any time which is the risk, but it's unlikely we're dealing with a con as many here like to declare.
I hope they apologize to Leo and Dr. B for all the nasty things that have been said once they deliver a deal.
The phase 3 is going to be designed with input from both the FDA and EMA. This means if the trial is executed per protocol and satisfactorily meets endpoints (agreed upon by both the FDA and EMA), approval of the drug should be granted by both the FDA (to be sold in the US) and EMA (to be sold in Europe).
Additionally, since we will have clinical sites in both US/EU, it should save a little money on cost since most EU sites will be less expensive for us. That should speed recruitment as well.
I think this is big. I'm guessing some of this is being directed by a potential partner.
Now your statement looks even less likely...
http://www.ipharminc.com/press-release/2019/3/14/innovation-pharmaceuticals-requesting-european-medicines-agency-ema-input-for-international-phase-3-brilacidin-oral-mucositis-program
As is customary, the Company is seeking Phase 3 scientific guidance from the EMA regarding the Brilacidin OM program. In December, Innovation Pharmaceuticals completed an End-of-Phase 2 Meeting with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), during which an acceptable Phase 3 development pathway was agreed upon to advance Brilacidin.
For the Phase 3 program, the Company anticipates international clinical trial enrollment, with participating sites located in the U.S. and in Europe. EMA advice is integral to this plan by helping to ensure that the program meets European standards.
The FDA guidance was to leave the USA.
I focus on all aspects of the investment. I try to be balanced in my analysis while holding a long position. I'm not scared of inconvenient information that doesn't jive with my investment. A poster asked "Wow. How much worse can it get?" so I answered him using the 10-Q. Avoiding any focus on the negative, especially when spelled out so clearly, leaves one vulnerable to a lack of critical thought. Any fair-minded reader would find I have a clear bias to the long side...perhaps too much so.
Here are a spattering of positive statements from my posts today:
I eagerly await partnerships on both Brilacidin and Kevetrin.
The upside is large: 300%, 500%, 1000%+
No one is more aware of the gigantic upside potential and plans than I am.
I routinely post Kevetrin comps with upfronts that dwarf our current market cap by orders of magnitude.
This is a great gamble if you assume a 50-50 chance of success. The upside is easily more than 100%, probably on up to 1000% or more, with even a small deal. The downside is 100%.
The critics say the odds are against us but I believe the deal is coming.
I believe Leo can deliver the deal.
I am both rooting for him and betting on him coming through in a big way.
I've continued to add to my long position in the hope of the upside while still recognizing the very real potential of the downside. I accept the risk because I think the upside vastly outweighs the downside. That takes cohones. I don't just dismiss away the potential for loss and call people names because I don't like what they say.
If you think there is little to no risk here that is fine. I happen to believe there is substantial risk here and filings by the company only reinforce that. There is room for both opinions without getting insecure about it.
More like Leo Namath.
No one is more aware of the gigantic upside potential and plans than I am. I routinely post Kevetrin comps with upfronts that dwarf our current market cap by orders of magnitude. I eagerly await partnerships on both Brilacidin and Kevetrin.
The upside is large: 300%, 500%, 1000%+. All of these and more can be achievable with a single deal depending on the size.
When the company explicitly illustrates the potential downside in no uncertain terms in a 10-Q, I am keen to heed the warning. It means there is a real enough chance of it happening that they need to cover their butts just in case. We don't have as much time as you state to lounge around looking for partners without a financing deal.
This is a great gamble if you assume a 50-50 chance of success. The upside is easily more than 100%, probably on up to 1000% or more, with even a small deal. The downside is 100%. Until we get financing secured this is nothing more than a gamble, albeit a compelling one for the right position size. It is still an unenviable position for those who over allocated their portfolios with CTIX at $2+ though.
What awaits Kevetrin in the near term? What would a deal look like if we cut one now? Let's look at some comps.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=145781762
$80M upfront on 2 preclinical targets
$640M upfront + $1.5B milestones on 1 phase 1 PD-1 copycat
$150M upfront + $2.4B milestones on 10 preclinical targets
$225M upfront + $2.4B milestones on two phase 1 targets
$80M upfront + $2.8B milestones on a grab bag of preclinical targets
$200M upfront + $2.8B milestones on four preclinical targets
Kevetrin could likely do a deal worth far more than our current market cap of $25M. The comps above should ease the worries of even those who are terribly distraught about only have 2 patients (both successful) in the phase 2 trial.