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Right, technically not Cancelled. Just trade at .0001 on the Grey Sheets. That will be our future -- Commons and Preferreds -- assuming Sweeney rules unfavorably for us on the Motion to Dismiss.
Looks like we'll find out at the end of January. Until then, expect a lot of uncertainty and year-end tax-loss selling, especially in the -45% Commons where there's lots of losses that people may look to take.
If you're expecting a "Comments" period to have any meaningful impact on this investment, you're going to have a bad time.
The reality is, the Courts have said there's nothing wrong with what happened and still continues to happen. Why would the Treasury stop taking all of the GSE's money? It makes no sense for them to stop when the Courts have blessed their actions. There are literally no ramifications for continuing to take everything in perpetuity.
If Sweeney Dismisses, FHFA/Treasury will continue the perpetual Sweep ad nauseam. If Sweeney Dismisses, Everyone is Getting Cancelled -- Commons and Preferreds alike. Hopefully that isn't the Christmas Gift we will all be receiving this year, because that's right around the time when she could possibly rule on the MTD.
#SayNoToAverageJoe
Commons are dead money if Sweeney Dismisses. It means the theft continues indefinitely as the statute of limitations has passed and the Courts said FHFA can do whatever it wants.
Receivership would be the only way Preferreds see anything. Commons are 100% dead and worthless if Sweeney Dismisses!
Moelis, wherefore art thou? The Clock is ticking for the government. Do they take the $250B or go for broke?
I imagine this trade is over if Sweeney Dismisses the cases in front of her.
Price is going to jump in a big way, the question is, "in which direction?" Sweeney will be the decider.
D-Day is on the horizon
Low of the day close. Not looking good. I imagine we'll see some rumors of up-listing, the GSE's Merging, RRR, or the other typical pump topics.
Sadly, we all know the slow bleed is going to continue. When will the AJ's learn to sell the pumps and wait to re-buy the dips?
#AverageJoesForMoelis
What are Commons worth if they get Cancelled?
The next 6 months could be even more of a roller coaster. Strap in!
Significant volume on the down days. Ackman selling?
Agreed, $2-8 seems like the Best Case Scenario for Commons. I would expect the lower end of that range -- $3-5 would be the most likely outcome. If we are talking 10 years down the road, then I could see the upper end of that range ($8-12). Anything else is ludicrous (not the rapper).
#SayNOtoAverageJoe
At least we filled the Gap! But now, the realization of a potential Cancellation of Commons being back on the table has scared the market yet again. Without something definitive from Mnuchin/Trump, it looks like the Slow Bleed could continue down to sub-$1.
Hang in there guys, I'm sure some of the Average Joe's have secured a meeting with the FHFA by now.
#PreferredsForAJP
$1.40zzz next week, hehe
Sell all the pops, this is heading to sub-$1 soon.
Did anyone else sell today's gap & trap? Easy money.
Watch this go back to the $1.40s next month
The Average Joe Hedge Fund Plan will never be endorsed by anyone other than the Pump & Dump Crew.
#SayNOtoAverageJoe
Are you suggesting the Cancellation of Common Shares when you say: it will end?
Preferreds just want dividends or Conversion to Commons. Then we can all endorse the Average Joe Plan!!
The smart money is in the Preferreds
#PreferredsForAJP
Have any Average Joe's met with the FHFA? I don't see them on FHFA's calendar.
But I do see Moelis and Co.
Great post! Moelis is alive and being discussed in the circles that matter.
#AverageJoesForMoelis
Another legal avenue closed today. Lamberth is next, but that's only for Preferreds and their takings claims. Commons only have one foot left to stand on -- Sweeney. And that's not going anywhere until 2020. Expect more sideways trading for the next 12-24 months.
Once our last few legal routes close, the Government will have the Court's full backing/blessing to finalize the Nationalization of the GSEs. Leaving shareholders with nothing. Quite sad
We have to fill that gap around $1.68 before we can go any higher. Let's get it out of the way.
#AverageJoesForMoelis
Gap & Trap -- classic Pump & Dump tactic
They're just playing catch-up since they were down ~50% YTD while Preferreds were only down ~10%.
We will all be celebrating once the Preferred to Common Conversion takes place and the Admin endorses the Average Joe Plan!
#PreferredsForAJP
Agreed. Preferred Conversion is the most likely scenario
FACT! Preferreds can be Converted into Commons
Aren't we shooting for $1,000/share as per the AJP?
#AverageJoesForMoelis
It's probable Preferreds will be Converted into Commons
#PreferredsForAJP
Those are just Rights written into the Contract. That doesn't mean it can't be agreed upon as part of a Private Settlement
#PreferredsForAJP
That's Old News. Possibly Fake News. She is just looking for a Pay Day by capitalizing on the #MeToo movement.
Trying to promote this as being good for Fanniegate. It's in bad taste. Some guy named Simple Jeff was doing the same thing on Twitter earlier.
#AverageJoesForMoelis
Lots of Common to Preferred Rotation taking place. Too much of volume for not much price movement.
Don't forget, the 3 Amigos were pumping uplisting last weekend. They usually dump after they cause these little pumps.
#AverageJoesForMoelis
Have they announced the Preferred to Common Conversion date yet? I know a lot of us are waiting for the Big Conversion. Then we're all in the same boat, rooting for the Average Joe Plan!!
#PreferredsForAJP
Was Ackman confirmed as Fannie Mae's new CEO?
#AverageJoesForMoelis
Has Carlos written any new GSE blog posts? He usually has some incredibly ground-breaking findings that he twists & turns into a big ball of Imagination. It's really great stuff!
#AverageJoesForMoelis
Uplisting confirmed? Saw something about Cancellation of shares.
#AverageJoesForMoelis
Is "junk" worth more than $0.01?
Since all of the same Ratings Agencies also have a $0.01 (one penny) Price Target for Commons, I'm curious which is worth more if the ratings agencies are correct in their valuation targets.
#AverageJoesForMoelis
Bagholders? There sure are a lot here
#AverageJoesForMoelis
Merger Equals 5x Dilution to Existing Common Shareholders. I sure hope that's not the route the GSEs go or we will be left with very little.
First, Gov gets 79.9% ownership via the Warrants, then the dilution of the existing shareholders via the merger drops it another 10%. So existing Common shareholders would be left with just over 10% to share.
Ouch!
Smells like a new LLC that will leave out existing shareholders. It's called the Common Securitization Platform, and it's just around the corner!
There's no need to merge, they've already extracted the best things from the GSEs and will be spinning them off into a TBTF bank-owned Utility where only special interests have ownership. Existing Common shareholders get nothing
#AverageJoesForMoelis
Merger & Up-list! The Three Amigos are back at it. Look for a dump next week. They do this every time to hype the price, then dump on their lemming followers.
#AverageJoesForMoelis
Moelis meeting with the FHFA is very telling, or should be to everyone. None of the other plan-makers have met with the FHFA. Not the Average Joe's, not the MBA, not the Post Card, not the Fair & Balanced, and not the $10,000/share folks -- None of them.
The only ones that have sat down and explained their plan in details is Moelis.
That's the Moelis Plan, aka the Everyone Gets Something Plan.
It's much better than the other plans which only benefit TBTF Bank and the Mortgage Bankers Association interests.
Preferreds have suffered long enough without dividends. Commons are barely holding above $1.
Moelis fixes just about everything, and everyone comes out about 4-5x higher than current prices. That sure sounds like a Win-Win for all shareholders.
Enough with the Greedy Common Hedge Fund BS. No one is getting more than a 10x from these prices, NO ONE! Some of us will be lucky to get 3x.
The Average Joe Plan was put out by Hedge Fund Pumpers. Let's keep things in perspective.
Commons deserve to be screwed, again and again. They are the ones to blame for this whole mess. They did not stand up and vote out the Board before the Conservatorship was ever put into place. They failed all shareholders.
Now, Commons are in the back-seat -- possibly even in the Trunk! They have no say what comes next. And while Preferreds don't have voting rights, they're the ones fronting 10s-100s of millions of dollars to fight the FHFA/Treasury in court to try and right this wrong. You sure as sh** better believe Preferreds will get favorable treatment as compared to Commons in any proposed resolution.
In the end, if Commons only see $1, that's their fault. They made their bed, now they have to lie in it. They'll be awfully lucky if Moelis is the Plan since they will greatly benefit from it.
#AverageJoesForMoelis