Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
We are Running into a P3 imminent CATALYST! No run up to 1.50 or what ever.. That normally transpires... into a Huge 1 or 2 month run up into a sure fire result! The result is weak..so weak that P3 cannot bring a normal pre PPS catalyst run up! Let's pray The HIV data is not compromised...Ouch!!
OK..Here are the Bullets for Dreamers!:
Another NIH grant to dilute Dilution!
P3 Adjunct ahead of schedule
P3 Mono ahead of schedule and with huge supporting evidence to support Adjunct BLA safety data
Orphan Drug Designation
BTD approval
BLA expeditiously moved Forward
BO rumors from Gilead and Merck..Perhaps a Bidding war!
GvHD initial enrollment! Which BTW..is over due!
Autoimmune Partnership...Please..about time!
CROI exemplary representation!
NO need for further OS dilution!
CCR5 Robust surface area response to single weekly Dosing..without the cop out 4 week interval for additional dosing..shows vulnerable lack of straight up MOA
Amen!!
Here a some possibilities:
1) Enrollment snag for Adjunct and Mono going into CROI..what an absolute shame that would be..That would take the Thunder out of Crio participation and Credibility
2) Imminent burn rate/dilution..OUCH!
3) Interim respondents showing less than ideal success rates..Drop outs, AE's and VL misses
4 GILD no longer interested
5) NIH..NO MORE funds available to deter dilution
6) Autoimmune initiation...not started as promised!
7) UNPRECEDENTED AE'S SURFACING..ouch!!
8) No Outside parties even remotely interested..No way a 5 Person company can Launch and Commercialize a product, no matter how good the Anemic "N = 30 Data is"..Insurance obstacle..for sure!
9) Delays..Delays Delays..Cash Burn!! OUCH
10) Mono Dragging Big time
11) Adjunct...Missing on all parameters...How promising and now how Nerve wrecking
12) Competition out pacing Pro "ME TOO" MOA therapy!..OUCH
13) OTC listing..No institutional support...SELL SELL SELL before Chit hits the FAN.
14) My Guess CROI representation will be cancelled due to failures!
Sorry, FDA requirement...Insurance Reimbursement based on a Very Small "N"...just like SRPT!,,,OUCH!
Will the FDA intervene to disrupt adoption rates with an anemic N= 30 data base? Look ate SRPT's (DMD..Unmet need disease state) small "N" approval, only to be smothered by Insurance reimbursement resistance. I believe the reimbursement parties, Insurance, Medicare, HMO's etc...will force a stringent Tier conforming policy to the Haart regimen as they do with so many other disease state formulary designed protocols!! Even with FDA approval, Haart may be a road block to Prior Authorization..until ALL options are exhausted. Quite scary I might add..since Haart has been SOC for so long..Pre Pro 140...could smother Launch efforts.... "IF" approved at all!! This is getting very complicated, especially with the pricing restrictions coming from Uncle Sam!! GLTA
Does anyone have updates on information, or a transcript from this weekends Meeting! Their Web Site has no updates that I can find as of yet.
Nadar said they would intensify the Road Show Venues leading into CRIO...wondering why there has been little activity in that area. Hopefully enrollment is on schedule all the way around!
Interesting Article from Market Watch. I hope as one poster has been stating...We knock the P3 Adjunct out of the Park! The more Compelling the Data, the more relevant the article below:
1. Biotech companies are telling us they are on the verge of a buyout binge
In an Ernst & Young poll conducted late last year, 43% of biopharma executives said they had five or more deals in the works, compared with just 6% last April. Gilead GILD, -0.93% CEO John Milligan recently said in an interview that buyouts would be a “critical” part of what the company will do this year to put new products in its pipeline.
2. Big drug companies are running out of ideas
It’s easy to see why these executives are cueing up takeovers. Only 22 drugs got approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) last year. That was the lowest number since 2010 and less than half the 45 approved in 2015. Submissions of “new molecular entities” (drugs unlike any approved drug) were down to 37 from 46.
And what is getting approved is far less likely to be a blockbuster. The top 10 drugs launched in 2010-2015 brought in $40 billion in 2015, says Skorney. The next top 10 drugs are projected to earn $31 billion in 2022. None of the top 10 drugs, by estimated 2022 revenue, will have been approved after 2014. “Fewer and fewer drugs appear to have massive mega-blockbuster potential,” he says.
This means that many drug companies are becoming more and more dependent on a narrower base of products. Celgene CELG, -0.63% is a good example. It reported $11.2 billion in revenue last year, and almost $7 billion of that came from Revlimid, a cancer drug.
Skorney chalks all of this up to an “innovation gap.” And guess how biopharma companies will fill the gap? Yep. By buying other companies. Skorney cites Amgen AMGN, -1.27% and Gilead as two companies with particularly large holes to fill, and the cash to do it via acquisitions.
3. They’re also running low on tricks
“Large drug companies have been making money doing things that are artificial and unsustainable. Like price increases, inversions and financial engineering,” says Brad Loncar, a cancer-company expert at Loncar Investments. Inversions are when companies locate their headquarters in a low-tax country and run global revenue through that office. Financial engineering includes maneuvers like stock buybacks. And you know about price increases if you have been in the medical system lately.
The problem with these tactics is that they don’t really create long-term value for shareholders, and they can’t go on forever. Both the government and insurance companies are pushing back on price hikes. Washington may crack down on inversions. And buybacks can only help so much.
“Because those things are coming to an end and the environment for the pharma industry is becoming much more challenging, companies are having a real problem posting revenue growth,” says Loncar. “The only way they can get revenue growth is to buy it.”
4. Biopharma companies have lots of firepower to make deals
More than ever in recent years, big pharma companies have the firepower necessary to do deals to build out sales and pipelines, says Forman, at Ernst & Young. He puts the figure at $600 billion. That could increase by at least $100 billion if U.S. companies are allowed to repatriate earnings at a favorable tax rate, a plan politicians in Washington, D.C., are considering.
Twenty potential buyers tracked by Skorney at Baird have $300 billion in cash available. The biggest buyout war chests were at Johnson & Johnson JNJ, +0.01% ($42 billion); Amgen AMGN, -1.27% ($38 billion); Gilead ($32 billion); Allergan AGN, -0.07% ($27 billion); Merck MRK, -0.78% ($25 billion); Pfizer PFE, -0.60% ($24 billion); and Novartis NVS, -1.03% ($23 billion).
.74 cents and no outside interest.. End of story!! Good Night!
Seriously..You don,t think the trials will fail...Hope you are right!
.74 Cents..In a 15 BILLION DOLLAR MARKET! 100 M Market cap in a 15 Billion dollar Market..Smell the Roses!! GILD May Suck Us Dry Of our DREAMS!!
What on Earth are you talking about! If you are a scientific HIV expert, you certainly need to understand the USA market. Nadar is a Mechanical engineer with NO history of Launching (Iran included!) credentials..Of anything! You are Putting yourself in the Managerial Hands of a foreigner, who is a Mechanical Engineer and has never launched a product in his LIFE!! Let alone the USA! I hope Nadar is surrounded by Experts..or we are toast!
BTW..He will not Up List...He better have a Golden hand Shake..or are the Sharks laughing through their teeth waiting to pounce on all the inexperienced Iranian, Mechanical Engineer Loop Holes! Please help us Lord!
Nadar has NO impact and credible credentials with the FDA..Hopefully his entourage can overcome his deficiencies! A Mechanical Engineer from Iran and NO commercial launch experience..Makes him Prey to Cash rich Viticulturist BP. Hopefully a good CFO and supporting MD's are holding his inexperienced hand through the process. Probably the same team that baby stepped him through 300 to 30, BTD application and etc... He is good at reading a rah rah script at venues. Lord, help us through this!!
Well we do have FADASIA, AA, the Cure Act, Unmet Disease States...what the hell else do we need when patients with Sepsis and other conditions are on their Death Bed...I just don't get it. But what you are saying, in spite of all these new initiatives, the Battleship is in a counter current!
What better trial and error experiment....Rover and Kitty...Better the beads kill them than Humans! Sorry so harsh...But that is the FDA's stance..give it to the pooches before the people!
I said "IF" they are the only game in town...Let us hope they don't leave the game!
I would like to see another 10 roll over patients from Adjunct prior to Croi. That would put us at over 50% (17/30) Adjunct wanting to stay on Pro 140. That would be some powerful data, along with the 10 2 year plus VL suppressed patients to share at Croi. Let's hope...also, this will help with bargaining leverage, BTD and BLA!
I hope the BTD submission was not done hastily, i.e. not waiting for more data. Nadar only has a few million in cash and hopefully he is not expediting the data sets to beat dilution! We do have 10 patients 2 years out with VL suppression and low AE's, along with 7 roll over patients from adjunct and other previous trials with good results. However, who knows what the FDA considers sufficient data for BTD. Hoping the FDA gave Nadar the Nod!
He does not want to sell low but may not have a choice if they are the only game in town (GILD). Nadar cannot go it alone. The infra structure to go alone would cost 10's of millions in capital/dilution. Additionally, Nadar has no experience in commercialization...it would be a disaster and a night mare! He has to sell this company and for the shareholders sake, at an equitable and fair value...5 to 7 minimum, 8 to 10 preferably. will he take offers post BTD and Adjunct (if approved)...or wait another year for Mono results (taking a chance on a tougher approval landscape...risk/reward...along with obviously more dilution to complete Mono. If Mono comes to fruition, Nadar wins the bet, if not, dilution for nothing!
Everyone is assuming GILD will let this stock escalate to 4 to 6 range, then will apply the premium Offer. It is more likely they will suppress that appreciation so they can buy cheap...especially since it is not on the NAS (Up Listed), easy to Manipulate especially if there is no Bidding war. A Bidding war is what will make things interesting, but still from a more suppressed state as institutions are locked out...until we hit 3 to 5...IF Gilead the Cash King Giant will allow it. First things first, we need approvals and they are 2 months for BTD and 9 to 12 months for Adjunct with expedited BLA...Nadar said on the market by end of year...Hope he is correct and there is minimum dilution in the process. Perhaps the NIH will give another injection of capital post Croi..wouldn't that be nice!
Noboby, including me, can come up with one 10X BO from a BP acquiring an OTC..NOBODY, absolutely..NOBODY!!
As an initial matter, the $46.50 per share merger consideration represents a premium of only 35.40% based on CoLucid's one week average closing price for the period ending January 17, 2017. This premium is significantly below the average one week premium of nearly 50.68% for comparable transactions within the past three years. Further, the $46.50 per share merger consideration is significantly below the target price of $58.00 set by an analyst at BTIG, LLC on December 21, 2016, and the target price of $49.00 set by an analyst at Piper Jaffray on September 30, 2016.
As detailed above...36 % premium! Also: per the article:
This premium is significantly below the average one week premium of nearly 50.68% for comparable transactions within the past three years.
I was a dreamer of a 10 Bagger...now hoping for a 2 bagger!
I really can't see Nadar, PhD Engineer from Iran, going head to Head against an interesting BP entity like Merck or Gilead to get 10X current value..even with excellent results. And..What if the results are Zilch....BK City, and Mono is a foregone conclusion! All possibilities we must consider but would rather not!
Thanks Amature..I was being extremely conservative due to the name blaming me of those who have accused my of a a shark and basher. I was once in this for a Home rune..10X..now due to dilution and a glutton of shares..perhaps 1.50 to 2 dollars, if we are lucky! Still no examples of OTC's producing a 10X in very short term! The entire board must expect this to be the first ever!
If anyone can provide 3 or 4 examples in the last few years of an OTC going from .75 to 10, I would certainly appreciate it. Otherwise we are all delving in Dreamland!Not Bashing, just want to know if it can be done by 3 or 4 companies!
Thanks for your respectful feedback. I hope 3 to 5 billion is the price tag, let me assure you of that. However, I have not seen a BO over 100% premium in a very very long time, and the recent acquisitions are showing 50% range..so it does make me a bit paranoid! Our Market potential is far over a Billion, then apply the multiple and minimal Debt! I wish someone could provide a case and point of an OTC going from sub Dollar to 10 plus dollars...But No one can come up with any..Including me!
whether there are 5 employees or 50 does not change the intrinsic value of the BO. If the company can BO CYDY for 1 billion with 5 employees, vs 50 employees.. it is still 1 Billion dollars! The 5 or 50 have to deal with the trailing dust in their faces!
I agree. Theses are some interesting questions. Many on this board would love to see an 8 dollar BO, subsequent to BTD and Adjunct approval, with strong data showing promise to Mono approval down the road. However, the disparity between 32% and 70% on the last BP BO's, at the very least needs careful assessment and evaluation as to CYDY's valuation in a BP BO scenario!
At 150 million shares a 8 pps market Cap would equal a 1.2 Billion dollar sale...can Adjunct alone bring BP to spend 1.2 Billion? If the data is compelling and stellar..who knows!
Just curious why you think this stock can garner a 8 dollar gap up to wake up! The last three BO's from BP has been 30 to 70% premium. I realize there are several moving parts, MKRT Potential, OS etcc...,However, 50%. compared to 1000 plus percent, to hit an 8 pps target is an extraordinary jump from the recent Norm!! Not bashing, just think dialogue is necessary regarding this BO talk at 8 pps..me included!
I hope you are right..certainly not wishing against you...but potential failure is an absolute reality. Hope to party with you if this is the HIV Predominate!
One step at a time..Lets pass .80 cents for starters! Sorry to be a realist and a concomitant Fun Destroyer!
I can still hit it 300 plus, but have been known to take out wild life thinking they are protected deep in the woods and bathing on the waters surface!
Are yo a South paw? I used to be a 10 HCAP. The sipping used to help relax me, now that I am older, the sipping just kills the pain and adds to the fun and to the score!
He is an extremely rich person with royalty to boot. He, according to sources on this board, has called some good investments.. Who knows if his personal Millions made that happen. One thing is for sure..He cannot predict complicated HIV trial success. I can assure you, he is no better in that department than anyone else on this board!
Just a thought. Hopefully overtime we can disrupt the HIV Paradigm by starting with Pro 140 and adding certain Haart therapy if needed, rather than the other way around. I believe at this point, until data proves different, Pro 140 will be implemented secondarily to Haart. This will take time due to the comfort level of physicians, even in concert with ugly AE's. Imagine, even in Adjunct..forget Mono for now, if Pro 140 is the standard and Haart is the supplemental Adjunct. If that happens...Adjunct will be very Lucrative and eventually Mono will be a land slide!
If Nadar can sell this company for a 10 plus banger (Obviously with the help of BTD, Data and Adjunct approval), I will classify him as a Magician!
There has been three BO's by BP in the last couple months..today Lilly took someone out for 32% PREMIUM, THE OTHER TWO WERE 40 TO 70% RANGE.
There has been three BO's by BP in the last couple months..today Lilly took someone out for 32% PREMIUM, THE OTHER TWO WERE 40 TO 70% RANGE.