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When I look at the chart and the volume.... Either someone huge is buying or news is coming. The commons chart looks like when Ackman was buying in October. just my opinion. not a buy or sell recco.
Of course it isn't a guarantee that the warrants will be eliminated. I think it is better than 50%, though. again.... Not a recco. I own zero common shares.
i own pref.
Not a recco for those, either.
You are just getting my opinion that the warrants will be cancelled in court. I own zero common shares of FNF. Not a recco to buy or sell. I own FNF preferreds.
not a recco to buy or sell. I don't own FNF common stock at all.
volume precedes price almost without fail. of course both are moving now....
Long kong
With volume like that, it is probably several hedge funds and retail investors.
yep. next time I won't find it and make it easy. I will just say "it was posted on one of the boards...." the reader/responder can tell me I am clueless!!!
that's what i normally do.
I am one of those people that believe it is a possibility. I don't own any common shares of fannie and freddie, either. I think it is a distinct possibility. I don't think there is anything pie in the sky about it.
courtesy of:
beta and
obiteridctum Monday, 02/10/14 07:20:23 PM
Re: TII post# 174480
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=forums&srcid=MDUxNDQwNjExMTIwMzQzNjc3NDIBMTMzOTU5MDE4MzE5MzUzNDExNjABSGM0eTNDbzlzamdKATQBAXYy
While you can ask for anything in a lawsuit, this is not off the table for what a "reasonable person would expect". certainly divvies by march, 2013....
(relating to resumption of dividends once the "expected losses" obviously weren't going to materialize)
I am not a lawyer and I am guessing you aren't either....
I am also guessing that you aren't following the preferreds very close since you don't own much of them any more....
good luck
Most of us on here don't believe in "efficient markets". that is why we bought these!!!!
I say this mostly in jest....
BTW.....What happened to tainted fud?
Also- Thanks for clearing that up. So you are saying that the commons: "have more potential"
The preferreds won't get any divvies until c-ship is over and they will never get divvies in arrears.
Let me be clear:
I don't think divvies will get restored until it is over. But- divvies in arrears was a possibility I posted before given the lawsuits. I think there is a possibility of the warrants getting cancelled, too(meaning commons do very well)
again, not a recco to buy or sell.
"BTW, there are NO dividends in arrears."
I guess you aren't following all of the lawsuits, then.
Sounds like you are saying to sell the preferreds.... If you don't like the preferreds, the commons must look like complete compost!
No worries, though. Some preferred holders understand that they are higher in the capital structure than the common(aka Ackman) some think that the common and preferred stock will both benefit from the constitution. some think that the constitution will be overrun again....
Dividends in arrears are also a possibility given that it is only 2 billion per year. If 185 billion in divvies can be paid in something like 12-18 months, there might be room for a measley 2 bil.
not a recco to buy or sell.
Yes. There were no repayment terms stated although prior conservatorships(there are very few examples and none like this) allow for them to be released once supposedly deemed "safe". As we all know(or we all believe), they were solvent, just not liquid (or deemed safe)since the mortgage markets were locking up and even those with exceptional credit had a hard time getting loans in the regular marketplace because of the liquidity problems. Like many have said, here..... This(FNF and the basically unlimited funding) was set up as liquidity (dumping ground if things went bad) to provide liquidity in the mortgage markets just like 1938 when Fannie was founded. There was a specific interest rate on the senior preferred, though.
again, in all other cases of c-ship(that I have researched), the entity was released. not a recco to buy or sell....
I agree that it made payments happen and occur in large numbers. I disagree with their "intent". The third amendment would have made the stock movement flat or slightly/significantly up(depending on analysis) if they would have left out the part where they said that any dividend payments over 10% would not be a return of capital. It is not what America was founded on. Not what it is about. It doesn't matter if both parties agree that it should be wound down(or not). Without a shareholder vote by all parties on any proposal, it is a circumvention of the constitution. I know many before have said the constitution is over-run all the time. I get it. It doesn't mean it is right. If this happens here, SLM will tank immediately and it may put the whole financial sector at risk. The next time there is a crisis, there will/could be the assumption that the gov't may try to take it all. It is not going to look good in court that the Treasury had an internal memo in 2010 saying to "take out the shareholders" when in public it was clear that if they "repaid" the monies(and got in a "safe condition", they would be released. They never respond to anything. Given that they did(respond to the press about the memo after publication), it tells me that it is a watershed event. There are more docs and plenty of witnesses. Not all of them are still on the gov't dole. They will try to get them all on the dole, though.... Watch them argue that FNF can "never be in a safe condition". I would say that no big commercial bank can be, either.
Mark my words. This is the beginning of the unraveling of the truth and the true intent of the 3rd amendment. The press loves salacious details if they can get them. They don't even care if the source is anonymous.
I agree that it accelerated payments. We'll see if the rule of law in financial markets is affirmed.
I know we agree on most everything, 2 cents. I just will never think the third amendment was a "good thing" even though it made payments come faster.
The intent was clearly to cut the legs off the speculation in the shares. Nothing in FNF dealings seems ethical when I look at the FHFA and gov't dealings I bought more on 8-17-12 since I thought that the third wouldn't change the rule of law.
It is still all about the end game. I may re-post that post(at some point) again when things look "golden" or when it looks "bleak". I posted it on 8-17-12 and a few times before and since.
Hopefully, you will make money on the 20% you have left.
I thought wrong, then. I have no interest in being concerned about what you are (or aren't) holding. I pick my own stuff and have ideas that are different than most. Good luck on your investments, Joe.
sorry about the 4 duplicate posts.(and the two after that) I think the site was messing up.... Thank goodness I can remove them quick since I am a moderator. Those are the first posts I have ever removed!!! Pretty easy once I figured out where to go.
I know most of you just post to google. I like posting here better for some reason. (probably just because I have a link to the board on my favorites bar) I still have a google sign up and go there, just don't post much. I wonder what Epstein thinks about when the court cases get to the court room. He said 3 years last year. I am hoping it is shorter than that or a settlement is forged before since they may try for retro divvies.
I thought last spring you said that you sold all of these preferreds. Later in the year, you said you bought the common. What a change.
Ackman is one of the best on the planet when it comes to figuring out which ideas will work and which won't.
He publicly asked for investment ideas on Bloomberg when talking HLF and FNMA/FMCC.
The thought and act of "creative destruction" has always intrigued me. Take for example a recent trip to Houston. I stayed with a friend and we were walking through an area that is "high end" with Lambo's sitting on the street. He showed me several houses that were worth 1mm+ just because they could be torn down and developed into townhomes/condos for sale. He pointed out one house and said what they likely would do. The house itself was an old 1920's house with nothing special to it. the fact that someone will immediately destroy it and build because people want to live there is pretty neat. Particularly since 10-15 years ago the house was probably worth 40,000 since it was a "rougher area". What a difference.
I am pretty sure 30 cents was saying that they need to raise 100-150 billion. I think it is more like 200-300(and completely do-able)
I don't think he was referring to settlements in huge amounts. Keep in mind, the "early settlement" deals much like auto auctions, set the "floor" for prices. any later settlements are usually higher and sometimes much higher. Given the outright loss by BAC(it was BAC, right?), more want to put this behind them, IMO.
All of this is my personal opinion and not a reco of any kind.
She didn't state that his strategy(before he took the position) was to buy it @ 38 and sell @ 200.(or buy preferred stock at an average of 1.35 with the intent to hold it until 50)
Each person has their own strategy. When I bought Wachovia preferred for 7-8 bucks and sold at 19-23, it was a game changer for me. I was now playing with 90% "house money". To put 10% of my assets into something that I thought was a correct investment that would change my life, was an easy decision. I thought it would take 10 years but didn't care. I know now it is likely to be 8 years, not 10 for the outcome. 2017 is three years away. 10% of a portfolio is not a huge gamble.
If something goes up to a value that is not life changing but takes pressure off, it is nice.
Life changing is par.
The investment thesis is clear.
The path is understood but murky.
There will be bumps in the road.
Fannie and Freddie were instrumental in the recovery. Lending would have been frozen without them. Receivership would have been ten times worse than Lehman. Receivership and wind down are synonymous in my mind. They need a shareholder vote to legally do it IMO. Any congressional action will be challenged against the constitution if done without a shareholder vote.
The argument that the gov't owns all the profits into perpetuity(for supporting them after forcing massive writedowns and a grip of gov't money at double the rates for the banks) will be decided in court.
I am frankly shocked that there haven't been bigger gyrations in the preferred stock but the float is really small.
Thanks for posting. Hopefully it is sooner rather than later. After the problems of understating income in the 2003/2004 timeframe they continued to be late.
I retract my assertion/assumption/belief that they would likely be "on time" and report at the mid/end of February. It looks like they may push it all the way to 3/15 given their past history(from 10 years ago)
your post gave me further insight.
I am sure the staff hasn't changed all that much and they will push it back this year and maybe be back on track next year.
stinks that they will probably be late.....
Many things have changed. The public perception and the way the press covers the GSE's seems to have changed significantly in the last 8-10 weeks. I honestly don't think any changes to the PSPA/conservatorship will happen without all of the takings litigation being settled by the parties. Just my opinion. I think the fact that Corker said that "shareholders interests would be considered in any settlement" was a slip of the tongue. I think he may know that they(FHFA/Treasury) are thinking settlement. I wouldn't want to litigate against Ted Olsen on something that is clearly a constitutional question. I don't think they do, either.
Maxine Waters' proposal may also include shareholders. She has much more power than all 4 of the other house of reps folks and I bet she is talking to Reid.
Most of this post is opinion and conjecture. Also not a buy or sell reco.....
Also... FYI- I changed my alias to JosephS(formerly josephslechta). Some day I will change it to "Slech"!!!
I am still praying on a daily basis that 30(you) changes to thirtycent cause I am so friggin OCD. My problem, not yours!
I have just seen you out here for so long that it bugs me! The name is more than a name. It is a persona and the way you are viewed. Using that name said that you were in this for a hero/zero scenario.
I still love you, though!!!
I think in 2012 it was Feb 26th or 27th. That is still later than usual and since it is year end it could be late feb(or delayed as chrisanj said....)
I hope for the first tender before then....
I have just watched your name since 2 cents and it bugs me. No big deal, though. I will survive!!!!
You are correct that there is no way it will be next week. They could delay it for any number of reasons. I think in 2012 it was late Feb.(but I am not 100% sure)
With the whole political winds shift and the difference in how fnma/fmcc are being portrayed, other news could come out before then.
These seem to be trading at a large premium for not paying divvies. the market seems to be anticipating something soon(IMO)
Course the market was wrong when these traded @ 50 cents or lower.
I also don't like the name chocolate cake. thirtycents, thirtyonecents, thirtytwocents..... anything but chocolate cake!!!!
I disagree. They(earnings) were delayed from the usual mid-Feb timeframe due to the accounting associated with the DTA. Unless there are significant anomalies, it will be mid February. Could it be delayed? Sure. I don't think it will, though.
Funny thing is, during the crisis WNA-P(Wachovia's preferred) traded at an effective yield of 20% as well and they never had dividends turned off.
Anyone have any thoughts about why the yield(assuming dividend restoration) is this low?
I am withholding my conjecture on it....
Pirate and war ships often got too close to the shore and would get beached.
Once beached, it is tough to recover(and get the huge ship back to sea). Some would be destroyed when getting beached from what I remember reading. So I agree with ferel, she is hedging herself by telling you to get out at some time(or now) before it crashes in little boat splinters on the beach. Or you get stuck on the beach.
Of course it is an individual decision. For some, this stock is/can be a life changer for a relatively small speculative investment.
If I had put everything in this, I would be able to retire today. Of course the market back then was saying that it would be many, many years before the prospect of recovery would be here. The market may have been wrong before or maybe it is wrong, now.....
I have a few friends and family that regret not buying this. Always remember "It's not your fault" that people didn't listen. It is their fault....
Glad to see you are still alive. Diversification is a personal preference. If you are comfortable with the position you took and "let it ride" as Richard Dreyfus famously said in a movie, I wouldn't fault you either.
I don't think your ban was fair but I think it had more to do with past stuff and the fact that you don't back down on items that are opinion based.
I don't own any of the LEH prefs but keep in mind, those are TRUPS, not regular prefs.
The wamu preferreds got something and I wouldn't say a 1 dollar recovery(or even 2 or 3) would be earth shattering. A complete loss wouldn't be shocking, either. I noticed that they were stopped from trading(likely declared worthless) and then allowed to start trading again. Given that they were not DTC eligible for a short time and then DTC eligible is curious. Any payments, (like WMIH) flow through those DTC agents.
I don't plan to own or sell short and the above wasn't a reco to do anything...
Good luck to you.
It could be that a mod deleted it just cause it was off topic.....
I saw/read the whole story. The poor guy is going to need to change his name again.
Or should I say "the poor rich guy"
Is Joe Stocks still around the boards? I am guessing no....
The sentiment has shifted given that the congressmen in charge of attempting reform have stated that shareholders will be considered. The gov't/gov't officials(to my knowledge) had not changed it's mind on any company or direction until that statement(during the crisis) except Bear Stearns(forcing JPM to give them more money IMO)
I don't take that statement (change in course) lightly and apparently the traders aren't either.
I always repeat the axiom that volume precedes price. It has with these so far.... That huge volume on FMCKJ 23mm tells me a ton of information. Of course there is little technical, too...
I know you guys were talking about it yesterday. Just wanted to agree that it looks like a big deal.
What would be shocking is a settlement of all the takings suits. I don't see it, but the volume is huge.
I think he is referring to 79.9 and 20.1....
I live with both the wife and kids....
Sorry to hear about the broken bones. I had a really tough year, too. My personal life is pretty rough. I have made more money in the last 15 months than at any time in my life but money means nothing compared to keeping your loved ones close and being happy. My wife and her boyfriend are having a better year than I have had.
I need to be near my kids. Without them near, I have a rough time.
sentiment has changed. most of the public has no idea what happened with fnf. they just believe what they are told. period.