Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Brikk
I've learned a lot here from you, coach, VLV and many others.
Thank you all.
My point is disregard liquidity for now. The MM's will manipulate around it. Just as VLV said to disregard dividends.
Until they can't manipulate, it's all wild west and ride the bull for more than a day week or month if you're a real cowboy.
I may not agree with you with the simple logic that the J's are trading too close to commons at this time.
NOL's are giving lift to commons...not the J's?
I may not agree with you.
Sure there is.
Yes they covered at the expense of retail. I had orders in at .114 while loads of shares traded at below my bid.
This is the world we trade in.
Here's the strange thing.
If the flippers and liquidity traders are gravitating to the J's, then it makes the most sense to pressure them. Of course at some point this will bite them in the a$$. No one knows for sure.
But if they let the J's fly on a short squeeze, the trusts will sky rocket. So it's in the interests of the puppet masters to focus on the J's and keep them weak.
The real puppetmaster controls the bonds imo.
It looks like 221900 shares were shorted today. Wonder how many they covered?
http://regsho.finra.org/FORFshvol20100304.txt
Ari - I just stumbled on PROJ last night. Chart seems like a nice setup. They are in the same business as CRM. What are your thoughts?
Wow what difference a day makes. I'm traveling so congrats to all!
Ari - picked up a small position in BRCD at 5.52. I am astounded at the volume so far today.
Ok Seems like an an overreaction to me on the report, so I will check out the premarket action on BRCD tomorrow. I think there's a swing trade in it from the mid 5's.
ARI - BRCD got clocked in AH's. Decent entry tomorrow?
TECZ filed Chapter 11.
Here's the link to the earlier posting of it. The shares may not be worthless at all since filing for Chapter 11 allows for reorganization and offers TECZ some protection from creditors. I think the link below makes the situation clear.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=44469957
At this time they are still worth something.
Ari - In my recollection 2003 and 2007 were very different situations. In 2002-2003 the market had bottomed from the 2000 tech bubble and double shock on the markets of the World Trade Center attack in 01. In 2007, the market had been been choppily trading for three years with a slight bias to the upside and lots of sector rotations that lifted various groups in tandem and moved to the next. There was very narrow leadership in the indexes during the housing bubble market of the mid 2000's. Growth stocks have greatly outperformed value I believe for most of the past decade.
So the question is would you characterize this market as more like the former or the latter? It seems to me more like the former, though this market is in a very different situational shock than the bubble of 2000. It's more systemic and global certainly.
PS. I will look into ENDP. Thanks.
Thanks Coach.
I'm looking forward to some more good news to get the Lehman storm wound up again.
Thanks Ari - I appreciate the comments. Thinking it looks interesting here from a chart technical glance anyway. I did well with REGN - bought in the $17's and sold all but a couple 100 shares this week in my IRA - so looking for another biotech or healthcare stock to bottomfish with some profits.
Let me know if you have any ideas.
Coach - any ideas why they are delayed?
Ari - take a look at the PDLI chart. Here's stockcharts gallery view. And check out the fundamentals and pipeline for a value test.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?pdli
It could be related to options expiry this week. Short trading week and more than normal volatility going into the end of week.
I have to give credit to Duke and Five Star. They saw this drop in share price coming. I'm staying the course but they called it more correctly.
Maybe this has something to do with it.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Toyota-seeks-damage-control-apf-1092884921.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Have added shares at .18 though I wish management would update us on developments. TOY is struggling. The lawsuit has to be an added drag on both expenditure and public relations.
Ari - If you're focusing on day trading and feel the bearish bias is justified, are you shorting? If not, another option would be to trade the short ETF's such as BGZ FAZ SRS EDZ TZA QID FXP etc until you feel the market has found some support.
LOL I thought you HAD added that line. Funny stuff for sure.
Yes... Having it sealed will simply make everyone wonder even more just what it is they are so afraid of revealing.
Ditto that for me. Good one Viva!
Both JPM and BCS charts are looking weak. Possibly forthcoming news about Lehman is putting some pressure on them.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcs
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=JPM
I'm not discounting AAPL or Jobs. He's brilliant but he's AAPL. What happens if he dies or relinquishes his role to someone else? Like Gates and Balmer succession is an issue. AAPL may be good for a double here over the next year or not.
I want to find the next possible AAPL etc in its infancy not maturity. S curve.
Just to throw another wild hair idea. In the 60's the revolution was more internal to US. Now that generation is retiring. They are frustrated, disillusioned and self blaming because the Age of Aquarius hasn't arrived and they individually sold out or feel sold out.
Fear is a powerful demotivator for an idealistic generation years later. It demands accountability and says "won't be fooled again"
Or will they?
And I agree that with your statement about the Republican party though the Democrats have there own agenda. Still if you follow history, playing one party against another is business as usual. It's the private interests that hold the cards.
Where's the future growth? Our social zeitgeist is not unlike the 60's though it is without the obvious social protests because the media has leveraged more control and the issues are more abstract and seemingly complex.
There is opportunity here. I want to find it.
I might agree with your mark to market comments except that the role of Moody's and Standard & Poor's is precisely to evaluate the value of such paper. THEY weren't doing their job! How many marginal borrowers are there in the mortgage universe, statistically speaking? The downgrades from them were opportunisticly timed and in my opinion criminal. So if mark to market now is such a good thing for home values, which are mortgaged for years, then why weren't they on the ball when the bubble was forming?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moody's
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_&_Poor's
Homebuilders recently posted positive news. Maybe stabilization is happening. It's tenuous here. But the thieves in the night and watchdogs are one and the same imo. What their next move is, is anyone's guess.
Does anyone have a link for current statistics on performing home loans?
Ari - Have you seen the editorial and book review published by Steve Forbes yesterday?
http://www.forbes.com/global/2010/0208/opinions-steve-forbes-fact-and-comment.html?partner=yahoomag
It raises some interesting points particularly the book review. I found this interesting.
"Wesbury also explains that the potential losses from subprime mortgages and exotic financial instruments in 2007 were less threatening to the system than was the banking crisis of some 20 years ago, when the savings-and-loan industry collapsed and major commercial banks were weighed down by dicey Latin American loans. If mark-to-market accounting had been in force then, the capital of the eight largest U.S. commercial banks would have been wiped out thrice over."
Ari - Another thing to consider is the structure of the markets have changed significantly in the past decade as well. Computerized trading, removal of the uptick rule, and a greatly broadened participant base interested in shorter term market timing are all contributing to current market dynamics. How significant the effect is I'm not sure but certainly the shorter term trends have the potential to continue to be more volatile than in the past. And small caps imo have more intrinsic volatility to market sentiment changes.
Still there will be new leaders for this new decade like the WMT's (80's 90's) CSCO's (90's) MSFT (90's) AAPL's (00's) ISRG's (00's) and will emerge over the next few years. The question I'm wondering is where to look for them. The china and alternative energy sectors are two sectors I'm considering but I'd really be interested in where others think the growth stocks will be found in this new decade if anyone wants to share their opinion.
Lol! Offer booze. Maybe they'll stop by for a little parlay!
I feel like I'm entering the Twilight Zone when I read your posts. GLTY and go Lehman!
ARI- It's on my list of China stocks. I know it's unloved and am watching some of the less popular plays in the group. I don't own it presently. I am noticing that some higher short interest plays are beginning to get stronger in this market. Regarding AOB there seems to have been buying interest recently in the low 4's so watching the 4.50 level and volume.
Appreciate your thoughts.
Your post just gave me a good chuckle. Thanks!
Ari - AOB is having a strong day. I'm not sure if you mind specific stocks mentioned here or not. Let me know if you do. I would be interested in one of your chart views on AOB if it's not too much to ask.
Thanks
J
Coach - Thanks for all of the dates. If the good news keeps coming, this storm is going to strengthen quickly.
Tugboat - if you truly want to diversify, I would buy some of one the capital trust preferreds: LEHLQ LEHKQ LHHMQ LEHNQ. They are first in line for payout ahead of the preferred shares you've listed. All have a $25 face value and pay approx 6% in dividends.
I'm hoping it means the subpenny/penny buyers have finally stopped selling. The bid/ask spreads are smaller in the capital trusts shares than I've seen in a long time.
I hold a decent amount of J and P shares though from this point, my only adds will be in the CT's.