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Afren signs natural gas deal.
http://www.oilvoice.com/n/Afren_Enters_Into_a_Cooperation_Agreement_with_EON_Ruhrgas_AG_and_African_LNG_Holdings/4108f00d.aspx
Good luck Farrell
Its impossible to accurately speculate how the proposed legislation will affect the blocks already awarded to ERHE and EEL. I would think STP would be anxious to avoid more litigation with ERHE since this would result in more delay.The last litigation between ERHE and the JDZ resulted in the World court affirming ERHE [ERHC at that time] claims and solidifing the legal nature of our rights.
One way to for the STP to tie up all the loose ends would be for the proposed Portugese consortium or one of its members to buy out ERHE and EEL either completely or just their EEZ rights.
This scenario fits in nicely with Balance Builder post 116573 which neatly outlines some of the evidence for a possible buyout by Petrobras. We will all have to wait and see the outcome. Still holding. Farrell
Ledbetter was hired to evaluate oil properties. I thought ERHE would have acquired an interest in another property before now. I envision a swap of some of the ERHE's JDZ assets for a nice on shore producing property in the Gulf of Guinea area. This would give ERHE income ,reserves and tangible assets to go with the potential of the JDZ blocks. With SEO's political connections and African business connections, I can see SEO and his cronies managing some of the Niger river delta proven oil properties that are too hot for the western oil companies to handle.
It could be a real win-win situation for all parties. SEO gets the oil, the locals get more jobs and local control, and the government gets more stability in an inherently unstable area.
If a buy out occurs I still belive it will be from a large well capitaized company such as Sinopec or Chevron. Although I would welcome a deal with Petrobas. Addax is a little small to swing a deal by itself, but ERHE could be apart of a bigger buyout including Addax.
A deal from EEL or Afren would be compromised by a lack of capital , debt,and other baggage associated with being a small cap 3rd world oil company. JMHO Good luck Farrell
CVX made the announcement of the Angola plant recently- so 2012 sounds correct. LNG plants are planned in Nigeria at Olokola and Finima River. A LNG plant has been on line for over 15 years at Bonny Island. Other LNG plants may be planned that I am not aware of. Good Luck Farrell
WSJ link to its article about Russia's Gazprom interest in a energy deal with Nigerian energy.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119954544206270191.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
It appears ERHE will have a market for its natural gas. The JDZ is thought to have large quantities of natural gas. The value of the JDZ's natural gas is usually ignored in calculations of its value. Several groups are planning LNG facilities in the region. Recently,CVX announced a LNG facility in Angola . The international interest in our area has to be a plus. I can still envision ERHE with multiple suitors in the future. JMHO Good Luck Farrell
I agree oil is like any commodity - as demand lessens the price will fade. The question now is are we in the early stages of a recession. Many traders seem to be trigger happy and are selling at any early hint of a down turn; as we witnessed today with the sharp down turn in the markets in response to the reported decrease in new jobs reported for December. Obviously there is no shortage of concerns with the fallout from the subprime loans, housing downturn, and the building Chinese stock market bubble. On the other hand it is an election year and the Fed seems to be committed to cutting rates as needed. The only sure thing is by the time the economists agree we are in a recession it will be too late to protect yourself. So what is an investor to do? I sold my financial, banking ,and transportation stocks 3 months ago which obviously was good move. I have and will hold my utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer non-cyclicals. I am overweighted in oil, mining, uranium ,agriculture and foreign stocks which should continue to provide some protection against a falling dollar. I am banking on a mild recession and I will probably hold most of the latter unless the slow down becomes severe or it spreads to asia. As far as ERHE goes I am planning on holding on for the forseeable future. I increased my position in December by 10 percent to take advantage of tax loss selling. With no earnings ERHE will remain a completely speculative investment; however I have been buying in for 4 years and I feel better about my investment now than I ever have.JMHO good luck Farrell
Sinopec My guess is Sinopec will be actively securing new sources of oil throughout Africa. http://french.china.org.cn/english/BAT/102102.htm http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aezc_1qYhkgQ&refer=asia http://www.china.org.cn/english/government/234500.htm Good luck farrell
The market seemed to agree with your assessment as Addax was up over $1.00 a share today on the TSX. Addax was up even with the decrease in the price of crude today. Most oil stocks sp decreased today.
I am surprised . I thought Addax would go down with negative news in this jittery market. Good luck Farrell
I can not open the Addax web site either-maybe another shoe is going to drop today? good luck Farrell
I agree. The common denominator for CVN and Addax is Jeff Schrull. Jeff Schrull headed the CVN drilling team for OB1 and is the head of the Addax team planning the development of the JDZ. You can hear Mr Schrull's comments on the JDZ on the following link: http://www.axisto.com/webcasting/investis/addax-petroleum/capital-markets-day-2007/index.htm?sid=wma... Pretty exciting stuff. Good luck Farrell
Another bad sign for EEL. Maybe we can pick up one of their properties on the cheap , but any type of corporate merger between ERHE and EEL would be ill advised. Good luck Farrell
I agree with his assessment the first step is for SEO to partner with a larger ,more experieced ,better managed company by selling a substantial percentage of shares. The next step will be resolution of the investigations. After that anything is possible. If these events do not come to fruition our share price is going to improve as we get closer to drilling. I think we are in good shape however things develop.
IMHO in the long run the patient will be rewarded. I think BSK Johnson's insight that we would be better off staying independent through the drilling may be true ,but I would welcome a sale of a portion of SEO's shares. Good luck Farrell
Alwright, I agree EEL seems to have a lot of problems. A review of their web site shows no end of year filing for 2006. A loss for 2005 and 2004. Persistant drilling problems.The Peak Petroleum payment defalt. The FPSO cancelation for the Bilabri field - including a 20 million dollar penalty. I would like to know why the deal with Camac international fell through. On the plus side they appear to own some potentially attractive assets, but none seem to be generating any cash . Their forte appears to be financing the ventures. I do not see any synergies for ERHE. Good luck Farrell
Thanks for your factual recap of the conference call and Mr Ledbetter's activities. He is going to be a key player in any drilling activities. Since the conference call there has been speculation regarding a future partnership. I found it interesting Ledbetter was in China at the time of the conference call. I had expected and infered from ERHE he may be involved in helping ERHE invest its royalty money in some type of local GOG oilfield. http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061219/0196833.html What SEO stated as low to medium risk ventures. His trip to China is a reminder that Chevron and Sinopec are involved in a number of cooperative relationships. http://www.chevron.com/operations/China.aspx
Another key player will be Addax's Jeffery Schrull-the former Chevron employee. Sinopec and Addax are cooperating in drilling the JDZ. Schrull seems to be coordinating the drilling. Schrull's presentation in May 2007 is my best assurance that my investment in ERHE is sound.http://www.axisto.com/webcasting/investis/addax-petroleum/capital-markets-day-2007/index.htm?sid=wma...
Good luck Farrell
I agree no one here has a clue. My previous SWAG was not much would happen to the sp until we were a few months from drilling. Now with SEO stepping down,the cc, Godsonic releasing their shares - plus all the items you outlined ; my new SWAG is someone is lookng at ERHE . I believe there have been extended discussions - and all the legal and corporate issues needing resolution before a formal offer is made and accepted have been outlined . ERHE seems to be scrubbing its corporate facade.
I had expected the sp to coninue to dwindle over the next few weeks after the uneventful cc; so I was pleasantly surprised at the increase in sp today. We will know for sure when we get a big increase in volume. Good luck Farrell
Walldog
See IV posts 7759 and 7738. Meridian is responding to Dadd's post on Ihub 105342. He is saying he knows what is going on with ERHE. I have felt he does have a connection to ERHE ever since he began posting. If you recall his posting began about the time WB was CEO.
Goodluck Farrell
Whoa!!! I am licking my wounds after taking repeated body shots from the stock market slide when I come across the news of SEO resignation. Thank goodness- a ray of hope for my portfolio.
Now that the big Kahuanas shoe has hit the floor, which shoes will drop next?
In no particular order I expect a cascade of events in the near future:
1. A resolution of the SEC's investigation of ERHE. I expect either no action or a meaningless fine.
2. An announcement of a new CEO
3. A corporate restructuring including new board members
4. SEO to sell a significant percentage of his shares. I favor the following scenario: Addax buys or swaps shares [at least a 10 to 1 swap] to gain a controlling interest in ERHE then CVX buys a controlling interest in Addax. Although I would love to see a bidding war between SNP and CVX The best bet is it is already a done deal for ERHE, Addax and CVX.
5. My portfolio gets a needed shot in the arm.
6. We need new questions for the conference call
Good luck Farrell I can not wait to see how this unfolds
Orangedad,
I agree this peroid of time for ERHE reminds me of TGA at its bottom. If you recall TGA was having its own legal problems at the time. Fortunately I was stuborn enough to buy quite a bit of stock under $.20 . Once CEO Clarkson started to work everything fell into place. ERHE needs a new CEO like Clarkson, but IMHO ERHE's JDZ rights dwarf the potential of many larger oil companies. That is why I am an investor here.
Good luck Farrell
In 2007 Addax has discovered oil in 3 consecutive Nigerian fields including OML 123. CEO Gandur describes the results as "a perfect technical exploration success record".
Yes, I believe 2008 will be a better year for ERHE.
Good Luck Farrell
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=47563
The most important question?
Will ERHE issue a press release prior to the conference call?
Otherwise the call will be a re hash of old news.
Good luck Farrell
ERHE green
ERHE is the only stock in my portfolio green today. I think the stock is oversold, but we are not likely to get any traction until the government investigation is settled. Unless SEO seeks a foreign buy out to escape Washington's scrunity as suggested by S. Freed; we will probably have to wait until drilling begins to get a significant increase in share price. I agree with AA a buy out is a possiblity.
I reviewed XOM 2nd quarter results announced today. Interesting that in spite of record crude prices net income is down and petroleum liquids production is off over 1% compared to 2nd quarter 2006. EPS is up because of the continued share buy back.
I believe we will see a wave of buy outs the next few years especially if we avoid a global recession. As long as demand for oil keeps heading up, companies like XOM will eventually start buying reserves instead of their shares.
In the meantime I am buying ERHE on the dips. I bought more today. Good luck Farrell
BSK Your opinion is valued. I find your comments and insights helpful. The interaction between you and our other posters help me to review my investment more critically.
Keep posting!
Good Luck Farrell
Imagine MPE and Chevron in one corner vs Chrome and Sinopec in the other. Maybe Addax as the refree. What a fight! I can not wait to see the share price fly.
Good luck Farrell
Hmmm Leveraged buyout software package from Davigold. Good find!
Hopefully they will put it to good use in the near future.
Good Luck Farrell
Brandhuber is still present at MPE. He is quoted in a recent oil publication news report. http://www.oilandgasnewsworldwide.com/News.asp?Article=21100
It is interesting he is not listed on the web site.
Good Luck
Farrell
Oilphant,
Is James Ledbetter going to push open the Gates of Hell? And if he does who is going to follow? Does Brandhuber "sing" to put Cerberus to sleep? Just wondering. Good Luck Farrell
SEO, IMHO ,could negoiate from a higher ERHE share price by waiting until the drilling starts. The real question at this point is if he needs the money before the Nigerian elections as some have hinted or if he could he wait until later in 2007 or 2008. Only time will tell, but I believe SEO has to relinquish control before we can move forward.
I do agree with walldog that SEO's influence can be an asset. I still think the best for all in the long run would be to transfer SEO's shares to a non-voting class of shares.
I wonder what bsk johnson thinks? Farrell
Guys,great work. If SEO sells his shares to a private equity group these guys will have their fingers in it. It could be a continuation of Walter Brandhubers work as ERHE CEO . The possible scenario runs something like this:
In the summer of 2006 WB presented SEO with a buyout offer from a major oil company.WB felt strongly the buyout was in everyones best interests ,but SEO was not ready to accept the offer. SEO and WB could not resolve their conflict and WB moved on.
WB remain in contact with the the oil company and SEO. He eventally structured a deal to accomplish the buyout similar to what has been previously outlined on the board. SEO sells 60% of his stock to a private equity group such as the Dubai group.The 40% is set aside as a nonvoting class of stock. The major oil company makes an offer for a majority stake in the company.
A real win win outcome. SEO gets his cash, but retains a substantial equity holding. The oil company gets control of the company without SEO's baggage, but retains SEO's connections for future assistance in the murky world of Nigerian politics eg. the EEZ blocks. WB gets rich.
Of course I have just fabricated all this. Only time will tell how this will unfold. Farrell
Dadd,Gandur's interview shed some light on the recent run up of Addax share price. Their Kurdistan field may produce up to 200,000 bls/day. He expressed some confidence in his Nigerian operations. Hopefully the good luck will extend to the JDZ and ERHE. Thanks for the link. Farrell
Yea, I am sure a lot is going on behind the scenes, the problem is the shareholders have no idea what it is.
Owning this stock remains an act of faith. Hopefully news will GUSH forward soon.
Farrell
We are years away from an AMEX listing. AMEX requires $750,000 a year income and a $3.00 a share price. Unless we make an acquistion that is producing income with our cash, we can not meet the income requirement.We are not going to have income from the JDZ for some time. AIM listing suits our situation better. Farrell
Perhaps obtaining a listing on AIM was one of Branhuber's responsibilities. Branhubers passed association with London based CRA international should make him very familiar with AIM. If that is the goal of ERHE we may know soon.
Farrell
At .32 I am buying.
Last December I bought between .29 and .33. ERHE is a much less risky investment today. We have secured our position in the blocks; we have about 50 million in the bank; and we have negotiated a "pass" on drilling expenses. Chevron has drilled the first exploration well with hopeful results. Our partners are making the arrangements to begin drilling all the blocks. The price of oil is at an all time high. The worlds economies seem to have side stepped a recession. Poltical uncertainties insure oil will be priced at a premium. We have had a tremendous year.
It is easy to be critical of our management,but they have navigated us to this point.
For me the bottom line is the oil. I am betting it is in our blocks in profitable quantities. This transition will pass.
JMHO Farrell
The 2005 year end annual report shows almost exactly 8.0 billion reserves of oil and oil " equivalents". A billion barrels of new reserves will increase the total by 12.5%. Quite an increase. CVX has a PE of about 8 after a several year bull market in oil and energy. They need the good news as much as ERHE . Good luck Farrell
thanks for link
Afren news: Lehman brothers international notified Afren it has a 9.92% stake of the outstanding shares of Afren -18,792,254 shares.
The big boys believe CVX has hit a major oil field in the JDZ.
http://www.hemscott.com/scripts/AFXnewstory.dll/text?EPIX=AFR&SerialNumber=2350&NewsType
Good Luck Farrell
OT.Beautiful merle. Our Aussie passed away last month at age 12. He was quite a dog and possessed all the wonderful qualities of Australian shepherds. He would herd the family [especially at meal time].He was a "velcro" dog, and was appropriately named Buddy. Aussies love to be in the middle of family activities. We all miss him. We are in the process of applying for a dog through the Australian Rescue Association. We even had a home visit. They go to great lengths to match the dogs and owners. It is a wonderful national organization and I highly recommend it to anyone looking for a great family dog. Good luck farrell
Red, I expect the CVX press release to be glowing if Meridians comments are true. The stock needs good news. It is one of the worst laggards in the oilpatch. PE of 8 says it all. If the block 1 has mainly gas and the oil extends to the other blocks expect them to be quiet. The only sure thing is they will spin the news to what they perceive to be their best interest. Good luck Farrell
That report seems to shoot down the rumor of block 1 being entirely in the gas cap. Any more info from CVX?
Farrell