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FNMA was started in 1938 as a gov't entity. It became a public company in 1968. FMCC was started in 1970 to compete with FNMA.
If uplisted it will be NYSE. The old symbols were FRE and FNM....
Agree, ferel. I will leave them up. I think it has bearing, too.
I was just trying to show that we were talking about the common to the poster and that "blue" is not a genius.
Anyone can get lucky. I posted the night before it crashed that both the RSI and the MACD were "off the charts" on the FNMAS board. I also told my staff the same thing right before the market opened. They asked if I had a crystal ball later in the day. Of course no one knows exactly how a stock will trade. If you look back, though....
The RSI and MACD were super high. stocks don't go straight up unless there is a catalyst. You can go through the posts and see that I wrote it the night before it opened crazy like it did.
It doesn't mean we know anything. Some of it is logic. Some of it is luck of the timing....
I rarely tell my team something is way overbought, though. The reason is because it is a fool's game. I'll be wrong 9 out of 10 times. I have traded my whole life and have watched FNMA and FMCC every day since 2009, though.
Here is my post in response to donot understand:
JosephS Monday, 03/10/14 10:29:50 PM
Re: Donotunderstand post# 14503
Post # of 14869
Nope. Just flat out risk taking. The risk reward is favorable long term. Short term, not so much. The friggin' RSI/MACD is off the charts. Excitement way too high. Not saying it can't go higher tomorrow an such. I just think it needs to consolidate. One guy predicted a pullback to 4.10 or so. I wouldn't doubt it. I don't think it will revisit 3.
Just mt opinion. not a recco
Here is Donotunderstand's post I was responding to:
Donotunderstand Member Level Monday, 03/10/14 03:46:58 PM
Re: stockanalyze post# 14500
Post # of 14869
egad
maybe that explains common
but prfd going down or staying even
flow from pfd to common?
I first bought the preferred shares in 2009. There was no third amendment to the PSPA. No voluntary delisting. Only a conservatorship agreement promising safety and soundness and release of conservatorship.
I will buy more if the 50's go to 10 bucks. You go ahead and short it, friend.
I can delete it if you really want me to. It is kind of related since we are all in it together.
Let me know if you want me to delete, rosen.
This has been out for a while but nice to see it posted.(I think it was posted previously but it never hurts to see again) thanks.
Unreal for sure. I have a feeling that this may be over sooner than we think. All of the articles, press and attention are putting immense pressure on Treasury and FHFA to get this over with.
This is actually constructive as far as the "we need to go back to the original terms".
To me, this is good news.
Nope. They are both just ATM machines spitting out "free cash"
Capital was built up for 38 years(approximately) was used for the infrastructure in place in 2008. The common shareholders (and preferred shareholders) put their hard earned money into these investments. They were put into C-ship, not R-ship....
I know we all, know it. I just need to type it again....
The post wasn't a rip of the Obama administration. The Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama admin take/took exec priv. on tons of things where it wasn't warranted.
This is about money. It would be another delay tactic. Maybe they won't try to claim it. I was just saying that I thought they would.
My best guess is that they will claim "supreme executive privilege". They will refuse to provide anything of substance. They know darn well that the feds won't bust down to the Treasury or White house with papers/police since the executive branch is the police.
The judges may get frustrated and just rule against them, though....
As you know, even if he rules in favor, it will be appealed. I bet it may stop the sweep temporarily if/when he rules in favor....
assuming he follows the constitution....
not a recco. I am not a lawyer.
Agree. I paid 3.60-3.70 for my tiny amount of common. I have almost all preferreds.
Are you going to put most of the rest of your "trade funds" into it if it goes to 2.40?
I am keeping 35-40% cash(It used to be 70%+ until this thing blew up) just because I always want to have funds available like I did in sept 2008.
I am so in on the preferreds, I don't plan on messing with the commons too much. If there is panic, I'll double my tiny common position...
letgo
Not a recco......
but..... do you think this is a good spot, too?
I was wrong. It has re-visited 3. The MACD and RSI have pulled back significantly. So much that it looks "safe" relative to other spots. This(3 bucks) is the top of Ackman's "buy range" and in November it broke out from about 2.40
I know everyone knows this. Just putting on the board.
opinion:
I don't think it will go to 2.40.... Full re-visit to the breakout is rare.
I think it should be relatively safe to buy but I haven't seen any panic selling. Just fear. Could there be panic selling? Sure. Will it probably bounce right back to 3? I think so(as soon as the panic is over) The inordinate risk taking has receded and given way to fear. I took a nominal position @ around 3.60-3-70 range and had a limit @ 3.20 (day order) that didn't fill on the original sell off day. I am holding the nominal shares I bought and didn't sell any preferreds. Not a recco to do anything. The end game may be closer than I think(I am/was banking on 2-3 years). The other posters may be correct that this might resolve this summer in a settlement. I still think it will be.... Delay. Delay. Delay. Settle two years from now
I think it is intentional that he is out of the public eye. Any re-cap deal should be led by him. No one else. He understands how to recapitalize a company.
This is probably the best Maloni post, yet. It is difficult to argue with facts or logic. He presents both in a straight forward, easy to understand format.
Good luck. Good luck.
I have loved Nick for quite a while now. He is fair, balanced and truthful.
He doesn't say untrue things and seems to have a good grasp of what is going on.
He is pragmatic as well. Like James Millstein. We need Millstein to overhaul these companies in my opinion.
I grew up in Lincoln, NE.
I'll look you up.
I suck at golf so I will just drink.
so if i'm invited, i will hang with you guys!!!
One of the guys from work gave me his set. I gave them to my unemployed brother. I will walk around and drink with you guys, though! I am going with the preferred guys when it gets released. I have been in the preferreds since 2009....
when i saw golf club singular I couldn't help but think of tin cup!!!
Then I remember the garden tool scene, too...
how about you? you a millionaire yet? beta is right, not enough to retire on. i need two minimum.
I used to think one was enough....
like gordon geckko (sure it is spelled wrong) said when asked:
How much is enough???
he replied:
MORE....
on another note, i bought my first common this week.. none of my preferred day orders filled...
got a paltry amount of shares @ 3.60. put in another limit for 3.21 and didn't fill.
it would have filled if i had put it in gtc. just didnt want to have to watch pre-market.....
The technicals clearly showed that a pullback would happen fairly soon, yesterday. I thought it might take a few days/weeks, not be all done in one day. I think the short term low is in.
Incredible day. I think more than retail sold today. A couple of hedge funds took some off the table today in my opinion. Volume was too high to be only retail(on the preferred and common)
I am still in for the end game. It wasn't as big of a shock since I was prepared for it.
Neo..... I saw that. I think he took the red pill....
the after hrs trades were only 25,000 shares.
Nope. Just flat out risk taking. The risk reward is favorable long term. Short term, not so much. The friggin' RSI/MACD is off the charts. Excitement way too high. Not saying it can't go higher tomorrow an such. I just think it needs to consolidate. One guy predicted a pullback to 4.10 or so. I wouldn't doubt it. I don't think it will revisit 3.
Just mt opinion. not a recco
2 million is enough to retire and not ever have to work(for me).
I would be able to live off of 30,000 if my house is paid off leaving ample wiggle room.
I won't retire, though. I have thought it through in the last several months. I know I won't retire.
How much is enough for you, SA?
amen. I always believed that this would be what it has become. I will never regret putting just 10% of my liquid assets in it but you always wonder "what if" especially when I bought more on 8-17-12 and traded some of those shares. I held some, too(and added in Feb and march last year). But still..... I bought 1.5 million more(RV) and sold much of it to take risk off even though I didn't need to.
Regardless. You are correct. This will allow me to quit for good and I am 40.
This will be the investment story that started everything for generations in my family. This and the Wachovia preferreds.
Leaving a legacy is my life's work.. I try to enjoy life while doing it, too.
cheers to all of you.
I hope XIDEQ goes to 10+
Agree. The debt might be a really good deal, though. Not a buy recco.
These guys sell a ton of specialized batteries. The business is a good one. They apparently had way too much debt to service.
Agree. As a mod, I probably shouldn't be off topic....
Good luck. you can bet I will watch it, now....
I wouldn't touch the equity. They have to make good on the 500 million in loans for the DIP financing and get the bondholders in line. The stock is highly likely to be wiped out.
The bondholders will probably get a mix of bonds and equity in the restructuring.
SA-
You are not going to like what I have to say but I want to first say that I have done very little due diligence on this. The only thing I did was look at their balance sheet and their profile on yahoo. I remember that they have had trouble before.
The first thing I have to say is that only 1 out of about 1000 bankruptcies end in anything significant for equity holders. The only three major companies(that I know of) that returned significant amounts to shareholders in the past several years are pilgrim's pride, American Airlines and general growth properties. All of these companies went under during the crisis and I think part of the issues were related to liquidity.
XIDE-
The company appears to have significant inventories of batteries. I would expect a stable asset like batteries to get 65-80 cents on the dollar. Their receivables should be fine and get the normal 80-95 cents on the dollar but will probably be sold to a third party.
The main issue is that the bond holders may not want to negotiate with the equity holders in court. They probably will negotiate but the likelihood of getting a big return on the equity from this is relatively low.
I know that your thoughts are that they won't get liquidated. I always invest on the premise that they will be fully liquidated. That is why bonds would be my choice if I invested here.
Bond investors, since they are very risk averse just blow out of their positions normally (like you have stated here) and set the floor shortly after the bankruptcy(sometimes right before) filing. You have the greatest opportunity at that point in most cases in the bonds. My guess is that junior bonds have the best risk reward here because of their assets. I have seen this company for a number of years and know that they probably have significant patented battery technology and likely have several excellent manufacturing facilities.
If I were investing here, I'd only invest in the bonds. If I were advising someone who wanted to invest anyway, I would suggest less than 1% of their liquid assets be put in this.
When I invest, I need a large margin for error because I will make many errors. The equity leaves zero room for error. If you are wrong, you are completely wiped out of the funds invested.
In the bonds if you are wrong on several things, you can still escape if there are a couple of other things you didn't consider(like a bidding war for patents, etc)
With the stock, you have to be totally correct to get a good return.
Just so you know....
I have never bought stock in a company that declared bankruptcy since I started investing in 1990.
I have watched hundreds and hundreds of folks try to buy stock in a company after declaring bk and it just doesn't work.
I don't want to say you are wrong, here. I just hate to see people lose their hard earned money on bk equity.
Texas American airlines bonds went to 20 cents on the dollar and now trade above par.
If you buy the jr. convertible bonds, you have a much better margin of error.
If you insist on buying the equity, you should consider the convertible bonds, too. They are likely to get a nice payout if a liquidation occurs. You could double you money from here...
If you put 1% in the equity and 2% in the bonds, you have room for error and will likely make money whether right or wrong,
Not a buy or sell recco. Just my opinion.