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Why not wait until dilution, which seems likely, is announced. That event is surely going to drop the price as all things be equal, the shares are mathematically worth less at that point.
Well I view it as lose everything or have some multi-bagger. I am never prepared to loose everything. That's pure gambling.
True enough but at the end of the day it is PPHM that has squandered BAVI
The blindness is to preserve the integrity of the study and prove the efficacy of the drug. Though it seems clear the third party was the one who messed up, PPHM was not precluded from overseeing the preperation of the components to be administered. In any event the contract would certainly have had a liabilities section this will be a major component of suit.
The contract between the two parties will be key. A good chance it limited liability for this type of error given an oversight responsibilty by PPHM.
To raise $30m and replace the loan
If they could get it done at $1 and that right now seem difficult, they would need to issue ~30m shares. That's 1/3 of current float.
$8 is almost $1B
Do you really think anyone would pay that much and dish out warrants?
My one post for the day (let the cheering begin)
The loan -- funny now it was clearly going to be called but when I suggested the issue I was berated. In any event I don't know the lead but I work in the technology field and Silicon Valley Bank is a first rate outfit. They would not have pulled the loan on a minor technical default and I continue to believe that if MOS was unchanged or improved PPHM would have been given some breathing space. The bank does not want future commercial borrowers to view them as cutthroat greedy bankers, just bad business.
BK vs. dilution -- Not all BK's are to liquidate an insolvent company. The company could file for BK to give themselves some breathing room as they will need cash. The cash flow forecasts are worse than before, with more expenses due to recent issues; loan fees, legal fees, perhaps loss of contracts on the other side. And you can't go to 0 and have any options so it's more like 6months to do something. Dilution does seem more likely though it would allow mgmt to just kick the can down the road and make who knows what future blunder. If they really have a ready BP maybe BK and a small bidding war would be better and get rid of these bozo's. In all fairness they only said they had meetings not BP's at the negotiating table.
The recent volume -- who knows how many of the sales were hedge funds and day traders making multiple transactions a day, shorts covering etc. vs. someone accumulating.
I'll average down at $1.25 if we see it tomorrow ($1.30 was last AH trade so it seems likely) then I'll wait for a dilution event and double down. Wait for a bounce and get the hell out of Dodge. All this talk of the company being worth billions or $100+ a share plus is dare I say.... preposterous! The markets are much more efficient than that. To think that just a few elite traders at Ihub know the secret value of BAVI and PPHM is absurd.
Good luck to all, the market will as usual inflict the most pain on the largest number of people as it can.
Really? You don't think CFO gets on the phone and tells them that the errors did not impact MOS or they improved it?
Yeah and you (who I don't know from Adam) and I are the idiots .... reality is stranger than fiction for sure!
They couldn't sell ATM Shares after knowing about the messed up results without disclosing. That would be securities fraud.
Crap was afraid of this happening. As you say the issue isn't the $15m (though the fees and expenses eat up a chunk of working capital) the big issue is clearly the conjecture that.the errors have no or a positive effect clearly are not the case. Somehow the data most have reduced MOS? But how? A clerical error counting the number of deceased? But they imply it was a dosage issue. Hard to know with these guys and the lies (never seen a statsig phase II, we cancelled conference for blah blah reasons) how can you guys not be pissed off at this point. Pissed at copany for lies and screw-ups and pissed for not selling Friday.
Company will look very incompetent if partner vetting found errors, that seems grossly negligent.. Though I wouldn't rule it out
Well If we are going to be literal (and I suppose I walked into that) then I will yield on preposterous (absurd). If he had said most unlikely .... and I hope all make $$ here. I just place a high emphasis on capital preservation.
I guess i wasn't clear. His loophole is the only one of many many buyers. So it is atypical and does not make the other poster's point bogus. Get it?
All in good fun on name. Hey I am long at $1.50 just have realistic exit plans. If I leave $ on table I am fine with that. I just hope to not be holding if some other news event happens. Best to you.
Oh come on, you came up with one outside case of a friendly partner turned hostile buyer. That was not his point and your logic/argument is again flawed. His point is valid for any hostile buyer other than the one who happened to be; in the middle of partner discussions, under non-disclosure, who uncovered the trial problems - silly.
It would most likely take the form of a proxy battle, get on the BOD, replace mgmt and steady this ship. These poison pills never get invoked. Current mgmt is squandering a valuable asset in BAVI with their constant clusterf&$!?&
Wow you either never had to do a proof or you believe your opinion is universally correct! If one can have a major discrepency in a clinical trial and just go back and "fix it" then the scientific methodology has been removed from such trials.
-- Patients still alive i.e., BAVI has value
-- Company has severe reputational damage and does not have funding to move forward
-- white knight steps in and buys company for <$5
-- hedge funds and other large buyers stepping in before acquisition
($55 is silly btw given revent events)
Man i sure hope that one can't mess up the protocols as badly as this appears to have and just go back and 'fix it' as you say. That flies in the face of any scientific methodology I know of. So mamy questions need to be resolved here:
--Where will they get $$ to move forward - second tranche of loan doubtful who knows what certs and reps they made to get frst
-- lawsuit costs
-- who knew what when
-- impact of lies like false reasons for pulling out of conference
Bought in at $1.50 today, believe the efficacy of BAVI (assuming people are really still alive) but I think a buyout coming at much lower prices than most here do ... $3-$5 it may just be a matter of survival.
Here you go all in their 8k
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/120830/pphm8-k.html
The covenants clearly require a succesful phase ii most likely this trial is thrown out completely so yes they are likely in breach and at risk for the calling of the note. The good news is the warrants won't be exercised and dilute longs
Real chance of BK at this point. Lawsuits coming, they may just reorg, sell ip, and start fresh. Of course that would wipeout existing equity holders but would allow them to raise new funds to go back and redo trials. How else are they going to fund a new set of trials, this one is clearly going to be totally rejected and given the loss of credibility ... Not to say there won't be large % moves nor am I weighing in on BAVI efficacy just don't see how the company and this team survive the next 12 months.