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Oh, WAAAAAAY over there, now I see it.
I really shouldn't "do" anything before I have a "double" (espresso)!
What "gap down"?
I don't see one.
The way I understand it, "insiders" are notorious for selling at bottoms and buying at tops.
What's pushing the $compx today?
My watch lists don't look ALL THAT great.
Thanks, Baletwine. eom.
Right.
I read it as the VIX was going to plummet soon.
Seems as though a lot of people (myself included) are very bullish on these threads right now.
It makes me think I could be wrong and we're headed down again.
Seems as though everyone is expecting a big run-up this coming week.
Very interesting view of the VIX:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19859344
(Read the 2nd and 3rd)
Can you comment on this when you have a minute?
Thanks,
Scott
02/27/04: "Market Monitor"-John Murphy, Chief Technical Analyst at Stockcharts.com
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is John Murphy, Chief Technical Analyst at Stockcharts.com and the author of a new book entitled "Intermarket Analysis." And welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, John.
JOHN MURPHY, CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, STOCKCHARTS.COM: Thanks, Paul.
KANGAS: On your last visit with us nearly a year ago, when the Dow was at 7,700, you said the market was oversold and due for a rebound, especially if the economy strengthened. Well, it did. And so did stocks, in a big way. But in your opinion, have they gone too far too fast?
MURPHY: I think that`s parts of the problem now, Paul. The market has reached some very significant resistance barriers. It does look somewhat overbought. And, also, we`re starting to see some signs of rotation within the market, which is normally a sign that the market is turning a little defensive here.
KANGAS: And the volume has not been at all impressive, has it?
MURPHY: No, it hasn`t. Well, part of that is that February traditionally is a month of consolidation, and that`s exactly what we`ve seen. The averages have been moving sideways. And in that environment, there`s really no conviction. So the light volume is not surprising here.
KANGAS: The last time you were with us nearly a year ago you said you were expecting a good bull market move, but it would be a cyclical market within a really long-term secular bear market. Has that changed?
MURPHY: No, it really hasn`t. In fact, interestingly, a cyclical bull market usually lasts about a year. So from last March we`re pretty close to that. And normally the S&P 500 gains about 50 percent. We`re also there. So I think we`re probably in the latter stages of this cyclical bull.
KANGAS: All right. Technical indicators that are most negative at the moment?
MURPHY: Just primarily the fact that most of our long-term indicators suggest that the market is in a very, very overbought condition. And, also, we`re up against the high that was set a couple years ago. So, I think that`s why the market is stalling here a bit.
KANGAS: OK. A year ago you also said the energy sector was one you liked and gold stocks, which had already done well and had a good move. But you said hold onto Anglo Gold, and it really has done well since then. I think we have an indicator here on their chart where Anglo Gold was, when you were last with us, at $30.40. It`s up 41.3 percent. That was a very good recommendation.
MURPHY: Well, interestingly, the gold stocks have been correcting recently. That has to do with the bounce in the dollar. Gold has slipped a little bit under $400 an ounce. I still like the gold group on a longer-term basis, but I think we`re in a short-term correction right now.
KANGAS: All right. Do you have some new recommendations of individual issues?
MURPHY: Actually, not in the gold area. But I like energy -- let`s go backwards. I like consumer staples quite a bit. That`s where a lot of money has been flowing. And just as a sample of one, Gillette (G), for example.
KANGAS: Right.
MURPHY: That`s a stock that hit a new 52 week high. In fact, it was trading at the highest level in about four years. And that move has just begun recently. In the energy area, Noble Corp. (NE) or Noble Drilling. The oil service group has been especially strong. Here`s another stock that just hit a new 42 high, also a multi-year high. And retailing stocks. Over the last few weeks we`re seeing a lot of money flowing into retail.
KANGAS: Oh, there`s a familiar one right there, big odd Wal-Mart (WMT).
MURPHY: Well, if you look at -- if have you the chart up there, Paul, you`ll see right around that --
KANGAS: Yes, we`ve got it up.
MURPHY: Well, if you see right around that $60 level, we`re testing the high that was set last September, I believe. We`ve been moving sideways for about four years. If Wal-Mart can get through $60, and I suspect it will, that will be a very impressive move.
KANGAS: OK, we`ll look closely at that. Incidentally, do you personally own any of these three recommendations?
MURPHY: No, I don`t.
KANGAS: Why is that, John? Why don`t you own them?
MURPHY: A good question, Paul. Actually, in our money management area, we only invest in exchange traded funds, which are traded like stocks, but they`re actually baskets of stocks. So we don`t buy and sell individual stocks.
KANGAS: And this probably makes you a little bit more objective on these individual issues, as well?
MURPHY: Yes, very much so.
KANGAS: The emotion goes out of it, is that true?
MURPHY: The emotion goes out of it. But many of -- on our Web site, in particular, many of our clients do trade stocks. So we do recommend stocks, as well.
KANGAS: OK. To sum it up in the last 15 seconds, where is this market going over the next six months?
MURPHY: My best guess is that we`re going to just trade sideways, Paul. I think the real key will be sector rotation, moving out of technology, moving into some of these sectors that we`re talking about.
KANGAS: All right, most interesting.
And thanks very much for sharing your thoughts with us.
MURPHY: Thank you, Paul.
KANGAS: My guest market monitor, John Murphy, Chief Technical Analyst at Stockcharts.com
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
It's just a matter of time before the economy sees a big pick up in "jobs"
A lot of the jobs lost since 2000 won't be back, but new ones we be created.
You can only hold off for so long before you need to start purchasing new equipment.
Like you said, that cycle has already started.
I'm in that same situation.
New technology is forcing me to up-grade or be left behind.
I skipped a "generation", so now it's time to ante up.
Bull,
Take 2 ibuprofen and 2 aspirins and you'll be fine in an hour or so.
Good luck! ;')
"this drop has been on valuation concerns in techland,imho, so we need a catalyst to get folks thinking values aren't high if we look out 6 months. "
Hasn't hurt RIMM, LOL!
Damn, thanks Bull. I have that post booked marked and even looked at it eariler today.
When I went back this evening and looked at charts, I didn't see one for NT.
I have all of your chart post book marked.
I really appreciate the effort and time you put in those charts.
Thanks again, Bull.
Has the Nikkei finally bottomed?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040227/markets_japan_stocks_2.html
Hi Bull,
Do you happen to have a "daily weekly monthly" chart of NT?
Thanks,
Scott
O.K. eom
WAhz, you realize that post of mine to Bull last night was just sarcasm directed towards peolple like Z, right?
3300 KB/s? Cable? How much per month?
That's cranking!
I get about 550 KB/s and that's pretty fast.
Hey, whatever works for you, ya' know?
Some will say there are no patterns, just "random events".
A year or so ago, I kept hearing about "Bradleys".
I didn't know what they were. I figured it was some TA indicator I didn't know about.
Boy, was I disappointed to learn it was "stars and planets and moons and the sun".
What a bunch of crap. But hey, if it works for someone, who am I to judge?
A word (and a chart) from LG:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2447601
Thought you might be interested.
Can't complaine today, but ITXC irritates the FU#K out of me.
Oh well, tomorrow's another day.
O.K, thnaks Wahz. eom
That split was on 02-19-04, by the way (2 for 1).
I have todays low (23.49) sitting right on a trendline.
If it closed below that, next support area is around 19.
But hey, remember, I'm like Augie: I DON'T KNOW SHIT!
Just my opinion. :`)
Sure, Sandisk makes a great product.
What was the major factor that made you go "big time" margin today?
I'm just curious.
They had a split recently.
You realize that, right?
What's been more reliable, your indicators or your patterns?
(I've noticed you haven't been mentioning the indicators for awhile)
Is it possible this is a big headfake to scare the longs and to get the bears excited and then to run it up on them, and screw them too?
There's really no major news or event that has changed the outlook in the economy here, as far as I can see.
Only that a-hole on the FOMC, who doesn't even have a vote, opened his fat mouth on Thursday.
Maybe Greenie will "smooth" it out this week. He's speaking 3 days this week if I recall properly.
This could also be one BIG headfake.
I guess we'll know this week, one way or another.
Was that for entertainment, or what?
yadda, yadda, yadda....
Hi Fletch,
I was hoping the SnP and Naz closed positive today.
Even if only by 1 cent!
I would have felt better.
I wouldn't be surprised to see more selling Mon. A.M.
Then, hopefully, go green late morning or early afternoon, and then close green.
But who the hell knows?
We'll just have to wait and see!
Nader?
Isn't he an alien?
LOL!
Are they doing it on purpose, to get someone in cheaper,
or, are they REALLY that CLUELESS?
Thanks. Do you think we close that gap @ 1145 today and then "blast off" late today or sometime tomorrow?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2409685
No, that was GOOD news!
I fully expect Syl to post something the opposite , just to keep me honest.
That's why I posted it. To keep 'em honest!
Bale,
We're like George Costanza.
Everything we do is wrong.
So everything OPPOSITE, must be right.
We need to start doing the EXACT OPPOSITE of our "norm"!
Yeah, what the hell, put me down for a copy.
The check's in the mail.
(Bought a bit more HLIT at 13.38 this morning. I like this one a lot)
What do you think the problem is with CIEN:
The CEO
or
Corporate culture?
Would a new CEO be able to "turn the ship around" quickly, or is it too be a company?
Jobless Claims Plummet on Better Weather
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040219/economy_3.html
Futures are rocking.
Could be a gap-n-crap today to fill in that gap at 1145 (SnP)and then 5 up days starting tomorrow.
We'll see.
Time will tell.
Ut oh! It's not propritary now.
Now it's public! :>)
Thanks Bale.