Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Petrobras controls 80% of the deep water drilling rigs. Petrobras seems to finally realize they were too aggressive in their plans to develop their offshore oil fields. Once PBR begins to release rigs the lease rates will come down.
Good news for ERHE, Addax, and the other operators of the JDZ blocks. Good luck Farrell http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8V5CHwdycrk&refer=home
Four days notice {two working days } is exceptionally short notice for a conference call. It makes one wonder; if perhaps, the company does have something worthwhile to announce. We will find out Tuesday. Good luck Farrell
David Bovell and ERHE's management announced in May,2008 they were seeking an acquisition. Tuesday 9:00 AM Can you think of a better time to announce good news? Bad news usually waits to later in the day or week. We will see if anything is going on soon. Good luck Farrell
http://www.erhc.com/en/rel/?79
Hopefully we will hear the announcement of a company making material event. It is unusual for ERHE to hold a conference call with such short notice. We need some good news! Good luck Farrell
Oil price rises on news of possible OPEC cuts. Next week may be better week for ERHE. Good luck Farrell
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSyGBZbfdP_A&refer=worldwide
XOM reported 34 billion dollars of cash in their last annual report. The last few years XOM has been critcized for not securing additional reserves. The price to buy reserves may never be lower. XOM should be evaluating oil producing properties to buy . The next few years it will be cheaper to buy reserves than drill.
When the markets stabilize we should see consolidation in the oil industry as the cash rich companies like XOM purchase new reserves. Countries such as China should be looking for a way to put their dollars to work and securing future oil reserves.
Will XOM buy out ADDAX and ERHE? Only time will tell ,but if XOM does not buy out the JDZ you can bet Sinopec,CVX,COP,BP and others will be evaluating the JDZ. Good luck Farrell
Do you have a link? If he timed the share sale and transfer correctly he should have saved millions [if not billions]
Thanks Farrell
The Spammers have arrived. An ERHE rally must be coming in the near future. Good luck Farrell
This stock isn't for sissies. I have reviewed the public information and I have made the decision to continue buying. I am surprised by the size of the down turn in oil prices, but I think oil is oversold. Anyone who decides to invest in a speculative stock like ERHE will have to do so in the context of their own financial situation. I believe the next few month will bring good news for ERHE. Good luck Farrell
Another review of Sao Tome and Principes EEZ's seismic data:
http://www.anp-stp.gov.st/eng/docs/BGS%20-%20Summary%20public%20report.
Map of Seismic data:
http://www.pgs.com/Data_Library/West_and_South_Africa/Sao_Tome_and_Principe/
Good luck Farrell
Umbra I am not an economist, but even the best economists have difficulty accurately predicting the future. I will make a projection.
In five years the JDZ oil reserves should be well delineated and early production should be starting. The EEZ should be in advanced stages of planning about where the JDZ is now. Large deep water oil field such as those in the JDZ and EEZ are the most expensive to develop and usually result in parnerships for capital and to spread risk. The current economic down turn will result in consolidation in the oil industry. Large well capitalized oil companies will start to purchase small aggressive firms with promising assets. For the next several years it will be cheaper for companies to purchase assets than develop oil properties.
The survivors will be the large companies in the strongest countries. In my opinion that will be China and the US and their oil companies Sinopec, XOM and CVX.
I have posted before that the Lusophone companies ,Petrobras , Galp and Sonogal would be involved in the EEZ and perhaps the JDZ. Unfortunately, Petrobras has stumbled badly .Their strategic planning seems to be that oil would go straight up forever and they have spent accordingly. Unless the price of oil recovers very soon Petrobras will only be involved with help from the US or China.
These predictions require the current economic down turn to resolve and the world economies to begin growing. It is reassuring to see the world governments cooperate to solve this economic crisis , but it is uncertain if they will be successful and if they do achieve success how long it will take. The best scenario would be for the economies to inflate and then begin to grow their businesses back to health. A revaluation of world currencies will be required. This scenario would be the best for oil and commodities. Obviously no one can predict the future especially in times like these.
Umbra, What do you think? JMHO Farrell
As you stated the question can easily be turned around : Why did Addax buy into block 1?
I think the reason XOM sold their position in block 1 was because they could not control all of the JDZ. XOM is able to see the value in the JDZ. They lobbied Sao Tome, Nigeria and the JDA constantly for years. Do you remember the last minute flight by XOM's brass to Abuja to influence Obasanjo when they understood that the JDZ was slipping away? I think they finally realized they were unable to influence the countries in the Gulf of Guinea as well as smaller companies .
Xom has been critized for allowing their production to fall the last few years.In retrospect they were right not to pay excessively for assets. XOM is very proud of their strategic planning. They point to the perspective earned over decades in the oil and gas business. Their stock price has held up well the last few months because they have not over extended themselves financilly like other companies such as PBR.
Now XOM is well positioned to use their horde of cash to pick up bargain basement deals. In the near future I look for them to secure assets and reserves that will last for years.
Could XOM still be interested in the JDZ? Sure: billions of barrels of potential reserves ; over 80% drilling success in the Gulf of Guinea; high quality high API crude oil; relatively close proximity to the USA ; good weather no hurricanes; compared to middle east a more favorable political envionment. Of course all the other companies, including Sinopec, know the same facts.
Only time will tell how things will shake out. Obviously the markets need to stabilize before we can move forward. Many of our economic policies willl increase the price of oil eg limiting drilling, inflating the economy and degrading the value of the dollar. The bottom line for me is the oil is in JDZ. The details will work themselves out because it is in eveyones best interest to develop the JDZ. JMHO Good luck Farrell
Walldog You are right about PBR. The downturn in oil prices will cause PBR to rethink its aggressive drilling strategy. It is just too expensive. The result will be deep water rigs will be available at much lower prices. It is painful for us ,but Gandur is right to negotiate for lower prices for a deep water rig. Unfortunately deep water drilling is the most expensive way to obtain oil and will be the most sensitive to oil price downturn and uncertainty. link http://seekingalpha.com/article/100675-petrobras-dead-in-the-water
This article is much more bearish on oil than I am , but it reflects PBR over investment in rigs. My hope is by the time we are ready to begin JDZ drilling in 2009 it will coincide with an upturn in the oil market. Farrell
Oilphant - I hope ERHE's success rate for drilling the multiple JDZ prospects is higher than your successful prognostications for ERHE's future. I have to admit it is amusing to read your cryptic riddles, but your credibility is less than Nancy Pelosi's. Son, it is time to put up or shut up. Good luck Farrell
The Chinese have billions of dollars and are negotiating oil deals around the globe. It would be naive to think they are not actively pursuing the JDZ and the EEZ. The major players are the Chinese , the "lusophoe" companies PBR. Galp and Sonogal, and the American companies CVX,APC and XOM. I feel they all will have a role in the EEZ and JDZ ,but the Chinese seem to have the money and momentum at this time. JMHO Farrell
http://seekingalpha.com/article/100205-china-s-shrewd-long-term-oil-plan-what-america-can-learn?source=article_lb_themes
Sinopec is the operator of block 2 of the JDZ.http://www.erhc.com/jdz/
Sinopec was also responsible for signing the drillship Aban Abraham. Good luck Farrell
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=42280
Umbra,
I agree Sinopec is a likely suitor. While I would welcome good news from Dubai, I am afraid it is more wishful thinking than substance. A deal like the one Sinopec recently signed with Tanganyika Oil- $ 2 billion cash for 185 million proven reserves would please most ERHE shareholders. JMHO Farrell http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0dd8662e-8ad0-11dd-b634-0000779fd18c,dwp_uuid=e8477cc4-c820-11db-b0dc-000b5df10621.html
I am expect an announcement from Gandur after this economic panic reverses. I believe Addax when they stated they were close to signing the ROO. The economic down turn makes the signing of a ROO much more probable. I am sure Gandur will negotiate better terms and an earlier starting date as a result of this stock market debacle. If they made an announcement now who [besides us] would even notice? JMHO Farrell
ERHE is the star of my portfolio today. It is the only stock I follow or own that is not red. Congratulations to the stockholders who made the .22 cent purchase- you have already made a gain of over 25% gain.
The strength of this stock in the face of a full fledged tsumani of panic has to be a good sign.
Good luck Farrell
In addition it will set the price. After this time SEO is unlikely to part with his 45% of ERHE for pennies. If he gets several dollars a share you can expect the overall market valuation to parallel his price. JMHO Farrell
Yes, I am pleased ERHE is continuing the road show. It always helps a company to see as many investors as possible, but any meaningful press releases about the JDZ blocks will come from the block operators, Addax, Anadarko or Sinopec. Good luck Farrell
Thanks for the correction, Umbra. Do Wally and the Sheikhs have any immediate plans to swoop in and save us? Good luck Farrell
Dubai? Gee we have not heard about Dubai for sometime. If you have some information about "something good" for ERHE coming from Dubai, today would be a good day to lay it on us. We need some good news. And we need more than a hint,a sniff or a rumor from a neighbor's 2nd cousin from Duluth who works with a guys whose sister knows... We need good news-LAY IT OUT THERE.
Because if you can not the inneuendo spewing, paranoid boiler room dot connecting conspiracy theorist oilyphantesque pumpers will come out of the wood work. They will look in their closets and drag out names like Dubai Islamic Bank and Millenium Finance Corporation. Then the posts will begin. Page after page ,day after day ,post after post of nauseating drivel. Linking our beloved ERHE to everyone from Stalin to Ghandi and extending ERHE's interest across the globe from Aremenia to Zanzibar. They will even drag out our arch enemmy ,the fiend, our Lex Luther -Walter Brandhuber.
So please spare us the drama and just tell us what you know. JMHO Farrell
dat
Third: the legislation will lay the ground work for Petrobras, Galp , Sonagal and their MONEY to enter the EEZ. Good news for ERHE and EEL. Thanks homeport JMHO Farrell
Bayfisherii, the link below is to a February, 2002 press release which describes the Seismic data agreement.
http://www.allbusiness.com/company-activities-management/company-structures-ownership/5861818-1.html
Spec I believe the last thing STP wants is to further delay the development of the EEZ. Any attempt to exclude ERHE will have legal and political ramifications which will result in handcuffing the STP attempts to open the EEZ. ERHE has been sucessful in defending its rights in the World Court. Any attempt to exclude ERHE from the EEZ will result in more legal action which should be the last thing the government of STP wants. In addition Nigeria would put political pressure on STP to treat ERHE fairly. I feel confident STP needs to quickly develop the EEZ and any plan offered will respect the rights of ERHE [and EEL] for the reasons outlined above.JMHO Good luck Farrell
Homeport thanks for generously sharing this important information. Hopefully STP will expediate the legislative process to get things rolling in the EEZ. This announcement confirms the companies are negotiating with STP. The lusophone connection would include both Petrobras and Galp who are partners in the enormous oil fields of the coast of Brazil. Their deep water experience and deep pockets would insure the EEZ blocks would be expertly developed. The Brazilian pre-salt fields may be similar in geology to the EEZ and JDZ. Good news for ERHE! Good luck Farrell
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKB62158420080415
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/22012008/323/petrobras-galp-find-large-gas-reserve-near-rio-de-janeiro.html
Red, I agree. He is implying a buyin or stock swap involving Chrome-SEO's 43%. The possiblities are endless. Time will tell if anything shakes out. After listening to Addax's presentation yesterday, I believe ERHE is in great shape to benefit from any deal out there whether it is NNPC gas deal with a company such as Gazprom, an asset swap for our EEZ rights with Petrobras, or a consortium formed to develop the JDZ involving a major oil company flush with cash such as XOM. With drilling just a few months away we may be better off to stay independent as long as possible. The fun is starting for ERHE shareholders JMHO Farrell
I am confident SEO is motivated to maximize the value of his ERHE investment. The reason can be simply explained by the graph below. SEO owns 303,591,433 shares of ERHE through Chrome.
ERHE sp Value of SEO's investment
.50 ...........................$ 151,795,716.50
$1.00...........................$ 303,591,433.00
$2.00...........................$ 607,182,866.00
$3.00...........................$ 910,774,299.00
$4.00...........................$ 1,214,365,732.00
$5.00...........................$ 1,517,957,165.00
$6.00...........................$ 1,821,548.598.00
$8.00...........................$ 2,428,731,464.00
$10.00..........................$ 3,035,914,330.00
$20.00..........................$ 6,071,828,660.00
As you can see from the graph the higher ERHE's share price the more jingle SEO has in his pocket. SEO may have billions of reasons to work diligently for ERHE. JMHO Farrell
Rest assured our rights to the JDZ blocks are solid. The awards have been sanctioned by the JDA with the approval of the governments of Nigeria and Sao Tome and Principe. ERHE's rights have been affirmed by the World Court. Anadarko, Addax, and Sinopec all recognized our legitimate rights when they paid to become our partner in blocks 2,3,and 4.
As block operators Anadarko, Addax, and Sinopec will decide about the drilling . They will chose and contract with the drilling companies. They will decide where to drill, when to drill, and how often to drill. They obtained that right when they signed the contract with ERHE for the blocks and became block operators. The drilling delays are frustrating , but understandable due to the shortage of deep water rigs.
In the meantime it is perfectly reasonable for ERHE's management to entertain and review other business oppurtunities as they develop. It will not slow down or speed up the drilling by one minute for them to do so. Remember it is not ERHE's responsibility to decide about the drilling. Many of us believe ERHE's management when they state they are well connected in The Gulf of Guinea, West Africa, and other oil rich areas. These connections have resulted in potential oppurtunities which are being reviewed by Mr Bovell and Mr Ledbetter.
I believe ERHE's management has been diligent in running our company. I hope they can secure additional business for ERHE. After all that is their job. I agree with many of todays positive posts . Our small company has made tremendous strides over the last few years. We have legally secured our blocks . We have signed good contracts with outstanding partners. Now we are close to drilling the blocks. With the cost of oil at over a hundred dollars a barrel ERHE has more potential than ever. Many have misunderstood how long it takes to develop deep water oil fields in this part of the world. Look at the history of Akpo. I remain more optimistic than ever about ERHE. Obviously the risks are great and every investor will have to weigh them against their own financial situation. JMHO Good luck Farrell
Dane Your prediction is noted. The fact that you are normally quite logical, thoughtful and rarely make predictions gives you more credibility than most. Time will allow the truth to unfold. Good luck Farrell
Tullow oil up on takeover rumors. http://www.oilvoice.com/n/Tullow_Oils_Shares_Ignite_After_Talk_of_Takeover/84f0813d.aspx Good lucl Farrell
In since 3/2004 ,first buy was @ .42. Unless a buyout occurs I will be here after drilling. Man you have too much time on your hands. Good luck Farrell
in
The agreement between Sinopec and Addax contracting the drillship Aban Abraham is still intact. http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=42280
As operators any news changing the agreement will be announced as a "material event" If any one can document an announcement by the operators changing this agreement I would like to see it posted.
No one is happy about the drilling delays, but our contract with the Aban Abraham remains intact and I believe will be fulfilled. Obtaining another drilling rig-the ROO, will be challenging in this competitive environment. Addax is comitted to finding a ROO and was close to signing one.
The downturn in oil prices may help free up a ROO as companies review the economics of signing multiple rigs. I believe the patient investor will be rewarded. JMHO Good luck Farrell
Redinvest and walldog,
The fact the press release mentions the Bayelsa state indicates this is likely a regional agreement limited to this one state in the Niger delta. Given Nigerias large natural gas reserves it still could be a large amount of gas. Gazprom issued a press release earlier in the year indicating discussions with Nigeria were ongoing regarding Nigerian natural gas and related infrastructure. http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/company/cna81273.htm
I expect Gazprom to be a player in this arena. Hopefully ERHE can find a niche in this area. One with producing assets to be spun off as a subsidiary and listed on London's AIM. I believe it is still in SEO's interest to assist ERHE. It sounds like SEO's connections are still viable. Good luck Farrell
Or...in a fortnight [or 2 or 3 or...]Good luck Farrell
ERHC's Razor:
Consortium of large oil companies with the assistance of the JDZ buys ERHC, EEL, ADX and the rest of the EEZ to secure dominant role in the Gulf of Guinea.
Such as: XOM, SNP, CVX, PBR
Remember: "White board" new company
Why: 1. Deep water drilling is expensive and risky- deep
pockets needed
2. Rigs are scarce -pool drilling expertise
3. JDZ is impatient- Remember recent meeting
4. Companies want to share risk
5. Major oil companies have never had more cash
6. Limited opportunities to secure large oil fields due to
nationalism
7. Improved security
JMHR good luck Farrell
Spec, the ERHE web site still lists 15% of JDZ blocks 5 and 6 as well as 20 % of block 9 as assets. Good luck Farrell http://www.erhc.com/jdz/
Dat, remember Addax and Sinopec signed the agreement to bring the Aban Abraham to the JDZ . The drilling program includes several wells on blocks 2 ,3 and 4. Good luck Farrell .http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/company/cna71558.htm.
The link below could be the template for ERHE to obtain an oil producing Nigerian block.
ERHE would be the operator resonsible for a small percentage of expenses. One or two indigenous Nigerian companies to provide "protection". A multinational oil company as an operator. ERHE must be careful in evaluating these blocks -something free can end up being most expensive Good luck Farrell http://www.oilvoice.com/n/Addax_Petroleum_Acquires_Shallow_Water_Exploration_License_in_Nigeria/979e1c16.aspx