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SPX SPY alert: full moon tomorrow; this is associated with lows. A selloff from Bernanke/ JH may be short lived.
Oddlot
GLD DGP will replace the closed DGP plus a little, at 50.06 if seen over the next few days.
Will close remainder if FXE hits 125.85.
Oddlot
GLD DGP closed half of DGP at 52.37 to reduce position in front of meetings/announcements.
GLD DGP closed half of DGP at 52.37 to reduce risk in front of meetings/announcements.
ahimsak: I assume a declining FXE and declining GLD would be symptomatic of a weak equity mkt. Both FXE and GLD have daily downtrend channels, med to long term variety, just above the current levels. SPY is at a cyclic point where a downmove could start without warning. So, I am in shortterm agreement with you and will be reducing positions by half on the smallest tremor.
However, the LT picture is not so bad and on retracement to support, I will probably begin to add if FXE and GLD are not highly negative situations.
Q re choice of Nasdaq. AAPL is a huge percentage of the index. Why not choose one with less influence by one company, unless you are super Bear on AAPL??
GLGT stay in touch.
Oddlot
Rotor..thanks for the story.
ducci1: welcome, and glad to have your posts. Try to make them realtime, and include your reasoning/charts if possible. We try to teach, and learn. Keep politics to a minimum. And leave all penny stocks, and other scams at the door.
Oddlot
GLD upper range 164-165 based on channel around sma120. Other methods agree, so dont get greedy, or delusional.
Oddlot
THIS BOARD IS ASLEEP. Wake up, people. Six posts, 3 from surfcat, 2 from me, one other and nobody else. Are you bored, broke, afraid, vacation, or what???
There is money to be made.
Oddlot
SSO: buy signals from cci's geared to cycles for 5/10/21 and even 33 days. This may be seen later as a significant low.
Oddlot
Haha: working away from home with only smartphone. No posting of charts possible. You have seen my charts, and you could build some. Sorry for inconvenience.
HD: good to have you posting again. Holding long gold and a new SSO position.
Oddlot
SPY SSO long SSO 58.18; see post on BT Timing board.
Oddlot
SPY SSO long SSO 58.18; trin was overbought (using 10min CCI256) implying mkt was pushed below equilibrium. Then TRIN dropped into neutral, and the SPY cci's started with buy signals. Low today was near the intraday bollinger 2 dev level for the 10 day cycle. So, there I went. Holding long gold positions but looking to cut half with FXE near 126, and long initial unit SSO.
Oddlot
GLD FXE gold is heavily influenced by the euro. The daily FXE has a downtrend channel well defined with top just above 126. Other prior highs are in same price area. Will close half of gold related items if FXE hits 125.85 over the next week.
Oddlot
Re UVXY: like all leveraged etf's, this one will magnify profits in a steady move. BUT, in a consolidation it will lose money as the mgr adjusts the portfolio daily to maintain the 200% performance multiple. See google for lots of articles on this.
Oddlot
Gold rally of $20 in an hour seems to coincide with release of Fed minutes.
DGP fills: this AM 50.58, and just now 51.30
Oddlot
GLD after retracing to 158.51, price rallied to new highs. Breakout seems valid and very likely to close over the 159.20 level. The mkt seems to be buying on that assumption. Buy some MORE!!!!
GLD may fill the breakaway gap, but if so that is the classic buy/add.
Haha: I concede that.a pullback on DGP is likely but IMHO would.be limited to 49.5-50.00; the opportunity cost if it does not pullback exceeds the cost of the pullback. I prefer to ride out any pullback.
Oddlot
GLD is in breakout mode. High of the consolidation, for 14 weeks, was 159.20 until today with interim high 159.40. A close over 159.20, say 159.50 or more, would finish the breakout.
Holding longs, getting longer, bought more DGP.
Oddlot
GLD is in breakout mode. The consolidation high, for 14 weeks, is 159.20. This was broken this AM with a high so far of 159.40. A close over 159.20 would break another barrier, say a close 159.50 or higher.
Holding longs and getting longer.
Oddlot
GLD put a 1min OBV on a 1min GLD for 20 days. OBV usually leads, and is STRONG.
I dont see enough upside to take the risk, even though trend is up. After a selloff, maybe. Meantime, watching trend reversal points under mkt for reentry. Still think the major play will be short.
GOLD is where the action is. 1min OBV continues stronger than horseradish.
Oddlot
Thanks. IMHO gold will follow euro, which looks headed to 126 FXE. GLD is very overbought, but that happens as changes in trend occur. A case could be made for a cyclic high over the next few weeks, which should be treated as a place to lighten up. However, I am and will probably remain long, to some degree, in honor of the LT trend.
Thanks again for your thoughts.
Oddlot
In your opinion, has longer term trend turned upward, or still in a consolidation, or still going down?
SPY GLD what is your take on gold? I joined you on the equity sidelines this AM.
Oddlot
SPY SDS with strength in euro, closed all SDS at 14.11; holding a good chunk of DGP, and gold is above the 6 week high. Gold is confirming the uptrend signaled previously by trendline breaks.
Oddlot
SPY SDS with strength in euro and gold, closed all SDS near opening at 14.11. Holding good chunk of DGP; spot gold is into new highs for 7 weeks and confirms new uptrend which had been previously indicated by trendline breaks.
Oddlot
GLD 1min OBV rose substantially into new highs, in advance of any price move. Increased DGP by 50% at 49.42.
$SPX trend status: I use two LT cycle directions to define whether in a trend or a trading range. The cycle direction is determined by taking a SMA of length 1/4 of the cycle length, drawing a trendline parallel to the steepest part of it, and sliding it against the price action. Violation indicates a turn in direction. The new trendline has zero slope and anchored against the prior extreme until the MA slope turns.
The 78 week cycle is up against a zero slope TL against the high 19 weeks ago with value 1422.38. The downtrend will flip to up on a close over that value.
The 39 week cycle has been up and would reverse on a close under approx 1375, which is not in danger.
The mkt is threatening a full blown uptrend. Like it, hate it, believe it or no, it is a factor.
I have approx a 2/3 unit of SDS with a moderate loss, and a belief we are going into the toilet. But stops are stops. The only difference between a closed account and a successful one is risk control. Commission cost is a nonfactor; fighting a trend can be fatal.
IMHO, be prepared to cover shorts. Going long is another topic totally.
GLGT
Oddlot
Ahimsak: the trend lines I use for signals on the 5day cycle were broken, and other signals were coincident, so that was the conclusion. My stop was picked off for a portion of the position, and it sure is not acting soft, but the signal has not reversed.
Oddlot
IMHO the short term cycle just cracked.
NoName: have a nice day
Kiy re vortex: since you introduced it, I have been applying it.in conjunction with my other indicators, and it signals about the same time(usually) as stochrsi. Applied to the shortest cycle I can point to (1/4 length of the 5.25day cycle), with parameter half of the period, the 1min vortex(256) is at dead neutral. A break from here should be good short term, or be the beginning of a longer term position.
Holding more SDS than I should, watching for 141.80 or 142.20.
Sorry.no.charts. Not at home
Oddlot
SPY SDS added 50% to SDS holdings at 14.30 just before the guys with the nets came to take me away, haha, haha. It either fails from here or I blow out some.
Oddlot
Rab: agree. Holding mucho SDS and waiting for the break. IMHO a break of 139.75-139.40 SPY would be the end for the bulls for awhile.
Oddlot
SPY SDS holding mucho SDS until SPY clears 142-143. IMHO if SPY breaks 140, say hitting 139.75-139.40, it is all over for the bulls. Long gold, short equities makes me a guy with.a Armageddon complex.
Oddlot
GLD DGP holding both. Prev sold half DGP above 49.50. Replaced that and 50% more at 48.40 DGP.