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I absolutely guarantee that merely passing tox, before starting clinical trials, will not bring NNVC to $100 a share. I'd be happy to make a bet on that one.
It amazes me to see how simply being long this stock causes some people to assume others will pay absolutely stupid prices for their shares.
When tox is passed the critical and most speculative part still lies ahead -- clinical testing. After all, if tox ever starts most of us pretty much expect it will pass. So when tox is started, $6, and when tox is passed $9 - $10.
We all know that. You pay for stock at the strike price, presumably well below the price at the time of exercise. That's not the same thing as paying for the warrant. The company can guarantee to uphold its obligation on the warrants because it issues new stock when you exercise them. That is why warrants are dilutive. The company would make more money by issuing new stock and selling it at the current price.
No they don't. You don't pay for warrants when you exercise them. You pay for them when you first acquire them (or you get them for "free", as part of a share offering).
Needless to say the linked page didn't tell me anything I didn't already know. Nowhere did that page describe a new fangled kind of warrant where you pay for the warrant when you exercise it.
I agree. Given that they are producing the Flucide for the tox in the existing facility, given that by now they should quite precisely know much Flucide they can make in a week, and given that by now they should know quite precisely how much Flucide will be needed for tox, it should be easy for management to give a good estimate of when tox can start.
But they don't do that, which is very disturbing.
The investors already own the warrants. Why would they have to pay cash for the warrants on exercise?
If the FDA is expecting results on chronic toxicity the tox testing will take 6 months, exclusive of the time for analysis. It doesn't matter whether Flucide is as safe as water.
I don't care how confident Dr. Seymour is about Flucide. I care how confident the FDA is about Flucide.
But the lab hasn't opened and the tox hasn't started. Which is just my point. When and if tox starts I will bump up my probability guesstimate.
So far the recovery of the stock price has had far more to do with dumb money buying by index funds than by any actual progress towards bringing Flucide to clinical trials.
The 100 bagger price projections for NNVC made by the likes of Puffer assume NNVC can pretty much name its price for Flucide. That won't be the case if alternatives much better than Tamiflu are available.
Reread what I said.
Well, strictly speaking the warrants don't put cash in the bank. They are sweeteners added to the pot to get big investors to buy shares, and it's the sale of shares that puts money in the bank.
It is a matter of opinion whether NNVC was more risky when those warrants were issued than it is now. I still give it a 20% chance of success, since nothing material has changed since the last time I did my probability guesstimate.
Yup, one of the biggest risks that the bulls like to ignore is all the other flu treatments that are being developed while NNVC spins its wheels. Even if Flucide proves to be better than all alternative treatments (by no means a sure thing) the existence of those alternatives will certainly depress the prices at which Flucide can be sold.
The warrants will certainly be exercised at some point (unless they expire worthless). Warrants dilute the shares as surely as issuing more stock does, and any assessment of the future price of NNVC must take that into account.
Full recovery?!
We're up a little over a buck from the bottom. Before the PT crash, this stock was over $6. So we've recovered a little more than a third of the losses.
Right now index fund buying (dumb money) is pushing the shares up. When the index funds have their required allotment don't be shocked to see the price drift back down.
All this assumes that no announcements of tox starting are forthcoming. That seems a safe bet for the near term.
I too see NNVC as a long term speculation and not as a trading stock.
But sometimes I fear I'll die of old age before this company gets anywhere.
What is there not to be happy about?
I'm unhappy that we're still waiting for tox to start. It's all very well and fine that dumb money buying by index funds has pushed the stock price back up to $4, but three months from now that won't matter -- we'll be back down below $3 if tox hasn't started.
Most people here seem to focus upon the day to day fluctuations in the stock price, taking every little bump up or down as confirming their views (bullish or bearish). What matters is actual progress towards getting Flucide tested, and I don't see much of that.
I see MERS as a side show. Nothing will happen with MERS before Flucide undergoes human trials. And I really don't need to see another video of Dr. Seymour being interviewed by some stock touter, saying what he's been saying for years.
Right now what "normal" options trading on NNVC looks like is this:
<crickets chirping>
The bid/ask spreads are a mile wide so few people want to trade them. This is typical of tiny stocks. Most people who trade options stick with bigger stocks where the options have spreads of a nickel or less.
Maybe people sold those $5 calls, rather than bought them.
So is NNVC's future listing on the Russell 2000 Ryan Talbot's prediction or is it a known fact?
There's no chance whatsoever of $45 until and unless human clinical trials are carried out and are successful. It would be nice if that would happen in 2015 but I can't be confident about that. I remember over two years ago when NNVC completed its pre-IND discussions with the FDA the eager beavers here were sure tox tests would start in a month or two. Meanwhile companies like Chimerix are working hard on competing antivirals.
There is no investment discussion board on the planet where people like to count their chickens before they hatch as much as they do here. It's like somebody buying 50 lottery tickets and then spending the next year dreaming about what he'll do after he wins the power ball.
It would appear that NNVC's management has updated their schedule over the last 5 days (to a later timetable of course).
You're free to have your fantasies but the reality is that even if tox started today it will be near the end of this year before it is completed.
There will be no human trials in 2014. Guaranteed.
I'm unconvinced.
Since the great PT induced February crash this stock has traded between 2.70 and 4.20. I don't expect to see a break out of that range anytime soon. Unless and until tox starts there's really no reason for this stock to take off. And who knows when that will happen -- another week? a month? a year? All I know about NNVC is that everything takes much longer than you could imagine, especially if you take NNVC's own PRs seriously.
Well, announcing the start of tox testing is a result of sorts -- it means they've finally manufactured enough Flucide to do the testing. I can't imagine NNVC would reach such a milestone without putting out a PR about it.
Once tox testing has started why wouldn't management tell us? I can't imagine they'd leave such a positive PR opportunity unused. This sounds more like the fantasy of someone who is desperately hoping that tox has already started, when it hasn't.
The lack of a simple schedule sometimes astounds me.
By now Dr. Seymour should know just how much Flucide they can make in a day.
By now Dr. Seymour should know just how much Flucide is needed to do the tox tests.
So by dividing the first number into the second he should be able to tell us how many days until tox testing starts.
The fact that he doesn't do this is telling.
Different index funds have different rules about how soon and how much they have to invest in a stock newly added to the index. Of course the vast majority of index funds don't have every single stock on the AMEX, so most of those will never be buying NNVC.
Vanguard has a bunch of index funds. Is there any evidence that Vanguard's holdings of NNVC are anything other than what are needed to meet the allocation requirements in their index funds? Index funds pay no attention to the quality of the stocks they buy -- if they meet the criteria for being in the index, they get bought.
Given that NNVC has yet to demonstrate that it has a cure for any human disease, it is simply pie-in-the-sky to expect the United Arab Emirates to shower NNVC with money to make a MERS cure real quick.
Vain hopes like that give the shorters plenty of stuff to scoff at.
My imagination can not conceive of NNVC having an actual drug for MERS approved and available for sale in less than 3 years. So, no, I see no way that MERS has any real relevance to the current stock price.
My predictions for September's stock price:
If tox has not started, below $2, just like the shorters say.
If tox has started, maybe $5 - $6, as investors realize that NNVC might be for real. But I don't expect higher than that, because tox certainly won't be completed in September. Also a disease like MERS is no more relevant to the stock price than rabies, HIV, or any other viral disease that NNVC has infinitely far back in its pipeline.
You and I have different estimates of the probability of success, but we both agree that this is a highly speculative stock that could go to zero, or could end up being worth a large multiple of what it is now. I don't really have a quarrel with you.
I agree that what we've had on this board for the past couple of months has been almost entirely noise, bloviation, and speculation. Right now the only news that matters is to hear that GLP tox has started. If it isn't started by June we are unlikely to have tox completed this year. Already we are past the point where there is any realistic possibility of starting clinical trials this year.
Plenty of businesses have stock prices that languish in the P/E of 10 range. The assumption that pharmaceuticals will always command a high premium is dubious. I remember about 6 years back when I was told that it was normal for gold mining companies to have P/Es of 20 to 30. Well, that aberration in the markets has long since corrected.