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They will run it hard into the close. My wild guess is, we close at 1970.
It is over! Now run the markets up for the rest of the day and top on Tue at 2000.
It is 9/11, so we must close green!
I would expect the C wave to end at around 1820 the day before the FOMC meeting. That is what my crystal ball is telling me. Happy trading!
Yep, the indexes are trading like penny stocks; Nikkei was up over 7% yesterday. This is the new normal now!
It looks like subwave A completed yesterday. Now up for subwave B. One more leg down later today.
Going down nicely! This wave down has a lot juice in it!
The question is barrier triangle, with (d) terminating at 1903, or something else?
As I said a couple of times already, AAPL will sell off during today's event and it will drive the market lower with it... let us see how far down it goes now.
I agree! perhaps we pull back to fill the gap from the long weekend at 1920, and then one more trip back up before major reversal. The triangle idea is still on the table, with a double combination for the (b) portion of the triangle; we just completed the (c) portion, and we are going down for (d).
Happy trading everyone!
I hope they squeeze the bears a little more. :)
Time for my dental appointment now...
Wave B over at 1947? That raises the upside target by 10 points to 1979.7. AAPL event tomorrow. The market should peak by then...
I am sorry to hear that... I also go to see my dentist today at 3pm...
Take care now,
Algol
So, wave A up completed at 1960.75, now wave B down. Wave C up will be 0.66 the length of wave A, or 32.7 points. Wave B down should terminate at 1937, which gives an upside target for C at 1969.7. Let us if this is how it plays out.
Happy trading everyone!
That is just perfect, O'Brien! Great call!
It is working according to plan! With pros like you and Smurf, we are going to nail every move down to the penny. :). Now let us get some sleep.
So far the triangle idea is unfolding quite nicely! It could be a barrier triangle as well, and we could see 1903 again to complete the (d) portion before the final trust higher for (e), which should end at 1950. So, by late Tue, or early Wed, I will be all in puts! (Note that Sep 9, Wed, is the AAPL event, and that could create a roller coaster ride for the stock and the indices!)
Have a nice holiday weekend everyone, and let us have another profitable week ahead!
Make sure you get plenty of sleep folks. (I for one will!)
Highly unlikely. Long weekend ahead and they will hold the market up if there is lack of sellers. IMHO, the (d) portion of the triangle is complete at 1920. Now up for the last leg (e): another doji at 1950 today?!
I am off to fly again, so I will skip most of the trading today.
Good luck everyone!
Yep, this is it! This is exactly what I thought when you posted the message yesterday. Let us see if this is how to plays out: down to 1925 for (d) and then up to 1950 for (e).
(C) portion of the triangle comple at 1975?
I follow the futures market realtime using netdania.com. Just look at the USDJPY pair - it is already lower than yesterday's low (119.73) as we speak.
I think this is a head fake. The $SPX is following USDJPY 1:1 as of late, and this index is trading at the lows already. I would be careful here. The Smurf's triangle idea may very well be in play.
Happy trading everyone!
It has been a while since I last heard from you. I hope that all is well!
The idea of a triangle, with (a) at 1993 and (b) at 1903 complete, is a good one! Let us see if the upward momentum increases tomorrow, or we stall and reverse again.
Best,
Algol
We are already up 10 points since the close on no news. :) As long as the Chinese market is closed, screw the Bears and run the market hard!
Now that subwave 2 is complete, I also redrew my channel to see where the 3rd wave might end. It would be a good couple of days for the Bulls!
I hope you manage to get some sleep; my sleeping schedule is also messed up big time because of so much travel around the world...
Take care,
Algol
So, that turned up to be a second wave correction indeed; 1920 held. The bulls seem to be back in control for now - no more bad news for the rest of the week, plus Chinese market closed until Mon. By the looks of it, we will hit that 2000-2008 mark by Fri (?). As you said many times before, if wave 1 is complex, then wave 3 will be impulsive. So, I expect a big gap up at the open tomorrow.
The Bulls are putting a good show at 1920. Let us see if it holds. I will unload the remaining weekly puts at 1820. I feel another flash crash to that level is forthcoming before a bounce.
If this is a 2nd wave correction then we should bounce at 1920 - testing the overnight lows in the first half hour of trading. I will unload the puts I held overnight and wait for confirmation on the uptrend continuation if this is only subwave 2 completing.
It looks like it wants to go to 2040 before it reverses. I hedged with calls over the weekend...
It looks like the 5th have ended at 1993.48. Let us see how far down we go now...
Everything is possible. Lots of Feds speaking today, plus first day of Jackson Hole meeting... I am loaded with puts since yesterday's high for SPY. 1948 is the line in the sand as O'Brian said earlier this morning.
Good luck!
Thanks, that should do it too! By the looks of the overnight session, it appears that subwave 4 is not over, just yet! That pushes the end of subwave 5 into Mon.
5=1=50 points. So, from the low today, subwave 5 should end at 2000 (or thereabouts) early tomorrow.
Sorry, did not mean to. But, I am glad that we are on the same page!
I second that! Wave 1 down (warning) is complete indeed and we have wave 2 underway. 2000 (or thereabouts) is where I will initiate another put position, possibly mid day tomorrow.
Happy trading everyone!
Nah! It will not get down to our target just yet... subwave 4 underway (ABC; B finished yesterday, and now in the final leg C up). The target for it to end is 1950-1970 (by Fri?). Then, the final subwave 5 down for a target of 1820.
I am perfectly fine with that! I had a hard time trading today because I was flying back from Brussels to Washington DC. To my big surprise, the limit order I put yesterday for the 190 weekly puts on SPY executed at $1.40. I plan to sell tomorrow and switch to calls with next week's expiration. With the VIX this high, the premiums are sky high, so I would buy in the money.
Good luck!
My pleasure! Now let us see if my target to the downside materializes tomorrow.
IMHO, there will be one more trip down to 1820-1840 over the next 48 hours. Then, up me go for a week or so.
We are still in wave 1 down...
We are in the middle of the final wave V down; 1820 should do it in the first two 2-3 hours of trading tomorrow. Then, up we go as you said earlier today.
I know that it sounds crazy, but I think that we will see 2020 before reaching 2130 again.
IMHO, $SPX has an ending diagonal pattern on the daily chart, and we are in the final wave 5 up since last Thursday. This is still the first leg up (A), which should end at around 2123-2125. Then, sub-wave B should get us down to your target of 2092, where there is gap support. Finally, sub-wave C should take us to a new high (2150-ish) over the next couple of weeks right on time for the EOM window dressing. That is how I see it. Other opinions are welcome, as always!
Happy trading everyone!