Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Sold TZA 31.44, -23,000$
ouch. Fortunately it was less than 10% of YTD profits, but still, ouch.
g
Bought some TZA for swing, 33.37. A bit high but we'll see.
g
Watching YRCW
Was LEXG shortable at 10+ yesterday? anyone try?
g
I'm already puking...
Momentum still have his position?
g
Congratulations, dude... that's awesome.
You get the DMOH (Daytrader Medal of Honor) for that one...
g
duplicate post
Wow, congrats to everyone who had guts to hold LEXG here... especially after being down 14K$...
I'm still pissed I cancelled my 3.80 order... would have filled... if I left it in for another 10 mins...
shoulda woulda coulda...
Fri Apr 29 10:51:31 2011 Buy 40000 LEXG Cancelled
Bought some SVNT, watching for a breakout... I like the heavy short interest and the move this AM...
g
Yeah, fortunately the irrational exhuberance of approval day usually overpowers the reality of the situation, however...
g
So at the risk of getting banned for doing DD, I would say that the explanations for the selloff are at least two-fold. First, as you may know, Horizant is just gabapentin enacarbil, which is the transported prodrug of gabapentin, which has been used for a long time off label, for restless leg syndrome. The big advantage being that it is a transported prodrug, so absorption is much higher than just giving gabapentin, which has problems with variable absorption across individuals... So the reason I don't think the approval was that big of a deal was that you could theoretically just give MORE gabapentin instead of giving Horizant... This is an even easier work-around than the AVNR/Nuedexta one, which is just a couple of fairly cheap molecules that you could get probably get a compounding pharmacy to make for you (with a prescription) and use it for PBA.
The second reason being that the analysts were pretty luke-warm on the approval, with one upping their price target to 8.50, when the stock was trading at 10 at the time (lol)
Of course, maybe this is all 20-20 hindsight... if I had really known this was going to happen, I should have shorted the stock when I sold at 10.75 ish. Still, I think that fundamental analysis does have it's place, but of course the technicals/sentiment can overpower them. However, if one did their homework about the XNPT decision (as I tried to do) then you could see that the gabapentin rat issue was likely blown way out of proportion. If investors cared to read the original paper
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7740556
And the followup:
http://toxsci.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/55/1/52
then you could see that rats get different tumors than humans (in the discussion section, first paragraph, humans get ductal cancers, rats get acinar), which factored into my decision that the FDA would probably think the risk was low for humans to get pancreatic cancer from gabapentin.
Anyway, I admit that I pretty much suck at calling most bounce plays so I officially admit that I give up on calling the XNPT bottom, and will leave that to the pros on this board.
g
XNPT keeps killing me here...
I cannot find the bottom, already lost 5000$ over the past 2 days trying... I think I'm going to give up and stick to my longer term swing trades...
XNPT overdue for a bounce. 8.46 now.
g
XNPT may be starting to bounce, bought some... AVNR bounced after approval/pullback as well... we'll see.
g
I call XNPT bottom here at 9.06
g
I have to say that without doing the DD personally, it is extremely hard to believe in the stock's chances of approval enough to hold through those bear raids and mini-bear raids that happen... with AVNR in the past (held 80K shares from 3$ down to 1.40 ish, and then back up through approval, actually averaging in more at 1.75) and XNPT yesterday. Plus, I could have been wrong and I would have lost 200K$, but I was almost positive with my DD that it would be approved.
g
Hey no problem. I wasn't implying that you were implying that, just wanted to clarify...
g
It's because I cut off the post, there were so many separate fills...
Here's the total
http://www.bilderload.com/daten/etradeexecutionsEK58Z.jpg
http://www.bilderload.com/daten/xnptcutoff6WH7M.jpg
I guess you have to take it on faith that that adds up to 177K$ for the ET account.
g
Thanks, everyone. Now I need to find the next one and start researching it. And take out 150K$ out of it as a gift for the US government. lol.
g
Thanks, Dave. I went way long into the decision. I was almost shaken out this past week and yesterday but held on. +314K$
http://www.bilderload.com/daten/20110407xnptG9HKW.jpg
g
Thanks, guys.
BTW I also went way long on XNPT after doing 30-40 hours of research. I was long 69,700 shares going into the AH section. I have to say it was pure torture all week and especially yesterday, but I stuck with it.
+314,000$
http://www.bilderload.com/daten/20110407xnptG9HKW.jpg
g
Thanks. I gotta admit that this past week, and especially today, was torture, but I held on. Averaged in at 6.13.
g
GAPPER - XNPT
Meh, let's try this again... PDUFA date is today... I'll go contrarian here...
g
XNPT may be moving some on the OPTR panel, which is on-going now. Looks like the OPTR panel is going well, from thestreet.com liveblog, so that might spike XNPT a bit, if OPTR gets approval (this afternoon). Of course it is totally irrelevant for XNPT tomorrow.
g
GAPPER - XNPT
I'm going to be a contrarian and go with XNPT as my gapper... PDUFA is April 6th.
g
Thanks. I did do some DD but I don't have a good sense on the potential outcomes... if approved, I would guess 12-14, if not, maybe 3? I dunno.
g
Bought some XNPT as a lotto play going into/thru the April 6th PDUFA... we'll see...
g
Tanker - CCME
In case it opens tomorrow :P
g
GAPPER - AFFY
Nice move today... I've been long for a little while. We will see...
g
Sold 20K shares at 32.43 average, +8.4K. Gonna regret it when it runs to 34 or something like that...
g
Bought some SLXP at 32 ish... I think there are a decent amount of shorts who were trapped, thinking it would gap down on today's CRL. Of course that was already being factored in all week, imo...
g
Bought some DCTH for the bounce...
g
Bought some DCTH for a bounce
g
Sold my 18K shares at 44.4, +4K$. Prolly going to regret it.
Bought some LVS for a bounce off 44? If the market bounces it would be nice too...
g
Nah I had bought and sold it multiple times since the fall, last sold at 8$, made about 150K$ off of it... we'll see what happens.
g
Still holding AFFY
about 500K$ worth... looking for a run into the NDA filing Q2 2011...
IMO it is the best biotech stock under 10$
...but I could be biased since I own it... lol
g
p.s. As a disclaimer, it has tended to give back it's gains pretty quickly, and it has run up alot today.
However, I do like the fact that they updated the data on the 15th at Bio CEO to show that the patients in the non-dialysis subset that had a higher mortality with hematide had higher rates of peripheral arterial disease and diabetes than did aranesp...
that data had not been publicly shown before.
Thanks, made some money off of it but wish I had bought more. I also sold wayyyy too early and left 20K on the table.
http://www.bilderload.com/daten/20110114Y92NB.jpg
g
ALXA may be breaking out into the FDA update, I think it is by mid Feb...
g
Thanks, man.
AFFY has had a history of giving up all of it's gains so we will see... still a nice move off the 5$ point...
holding 82,000 shares for a while.
g