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estock50 I'm on the same page
I want it to the next level too
estock50 one more thing
The only thing that is significant enough to affect the formula is that this formula assumes that the history will repeat it self. And of course this might not be true. But since it's only one quarter the error shouldn't be too significant.
And one more thing this formula will be more accurate as the time passes. Meaning if you use the same formula for the 3Q the results should be closer to the actual results for the 3Q as compared to 2Q.
estock50 its good that you mentioned it since I was thinking about the same thing. Great PR and no action. I bet you that if it was bad PR we would have dropped but the good PR does not change anything isn't that funny
estock50
my formula assumes the wells have been hooked up at the time of PR. And of course this is not the case. But I have touched on that subject at the end of my posting.... As long as the wells have been hooked up by the of the 2Q (it will increase the ratio of 36%) my formula still works and the revenue from oil and Gas will be greater than $1.53 MM
Now how much greater I can't rely tell since it will be pure guess...
StormyMonday I enjoy crunching numbers
StormyMonday my degree is in Math
Alright here I go...
The magic number is $1,530,533 which represents the worst case scenario (meaning the actual numbers will be greater - you can ask me why if you don't understand the formula) with few assumptions.
Here is how I came up with this number:
Per PR:
/Note: average Gas price $7.2, Average Oil price $59/
2-Jan Justen #5 300 mcf $190,080
23-Jan Taylor #2 500 mcf $241,200
31-Jan Cutberth #1 750 mcf $318,600
12-Feb Dohman #2 500-600 mcf $186,120
13-Feb Cutberth #2 3500 MCF $1,159,200
12-Mar Josh #5 250 bpd $280,250
--------------------------------------------------
$2,375,450
The revenue per well for the 1Q is calculated as follow:
Justen #5 - 300(mcf)* 88 (days of operation)* $7.2( average gas prices in the 1Q)= $190,080
Use the same formula for the rest of the wells which will get us to a total production of $2,375,450 (this number assumes that all wells are operational from the day of the PR)
/
Assumptions
1) 4Q oil and gas revenue is 50% of $554,192 = $277,096
2) oil and gas prices in the 4Q = prices in the 1Q
3) wells hooked up prior to the 1Q produce the same amount of gas/oil in the 1Q as in the 4Q
Note: all of the above assumptions will skew the final number down
/
Now we add the production from the 4Q ($277,096) to our calculated production for the 1Q ($2,375,450) which equals $2,652,546 (this number represents 100% interest with no royalty payments)
In the next step we divide the actual revenue from oil and gas for the 1Q ($952,191) by $2,652,546 this will give us 0.36 or 36%
this 36% is commutative ratio that takes in to account the following:
1) royalty payments
2) working interest in the well (average)
3) percentage of well hooked up
4) etc.
Going to the 2Q....
Average Oil prices - $65.30 (an increase of 11% over the 1Q)
Average Gas prices - $7.63 (an increase of 6% over the 1Q)
Since PRVB is more Gas than Oil lets use an average of 7% increase in oil&gas prices
we take the $952,191 (1Q) and increase that by 7% = $1,018,844
/
Assumption the wells from the 1Q perform with no change during the 2Q
/
If the assumption is true for the SAME period (Justen #5 - 88 days, Taylor #2 - 67 days, etc.) all operation wells during the 1Q would produce $1,018,844
Now this is a little bit tricky:
Justen #5 well, for example, produced only 88 in the 1Q and there are 92 days in the 2Q. Therefore, we add these extra 4 days of production using the following formula
300 mcf * 4 * $7.63 (average gas price) = $9,156
Let's do one more
Taylor #2 produced only 67 days in the 1Q. Therefore, we add the 25 days (92 days in the 2Q - 67 producing days in 1Q = 25) of production to the 2Q.
500 mcf * 25 * $7.63 = $95,375
And we do the same for the rest of the wells. Here is the chart:
Justen #5 $9,156
Taylor #2 $95,375
Cutberth #1 $188,843
Dohman #2 $386,078
Cutberth #2 $1,228,430
Josh #5 $1,191,725
We also add to this list the new wells:
8-May Stumfoll #2 310 MCF $101,708 (310 * $7.63 * 43 days)
12-Jun 16th well 300 mcf $43,491 (300 * $7.63 * 19 days of operation)
Adding the numbers above will give us $3,244,805 (this number represents the extra production in the 2Q)
Now we add $3,244,805 to $1,018,844 = $4,263,650
Now we do the same what we did in the 1Q
We multiply the $4,263,650 by the ratio we calculated above 36%
this will give us $1,530,533
Note: The above assumption is conservative since it assumes that the wells were hooked up from the 1 day they were tested and we all know this is not the case.
The greater the delay in the actual hook up in the well from the 1Q the greater the ratio (36%) will be. This means the actual 2Q numbers will be greater than $1,530,533
Sorry can't give you exact number since I have no idea how long it takes for the hookup.
Feel free to make comments
estock50 my guess was that it would be half of their oil&Gas revenue reported for the whole 2006 which is about the same as 70% of the 1Q oil&gas revenue.
good guess.
I'll post my numbers in few minutes...
What was the PRVB 4Q oil and gas revenue?
Need this to complete my formula as promised...
MaxM
We have the 1Q production numbers which was close to $1 mil
Now go back and read all their PRs with all the well that have been drilled prior to 1Q and you will find out total production before the 1Q ended than multiply that number by the average Oil and NG prices for that quarter (I believe they exact numbers are in their 1Q results) - this number will equal the 100% ownership. Take the $1 mil and divide that by the last number (100%) and you will get an aggregate average in terms of % and then use the same number for the wells that have been drilled after the 1Q and add that number on top of the 1Q drilling results (of course here you need to take in to consideration the oil and NG prices during the second Q as well). This should give you some rough idea of the 2Q numbers.
I'll post my projections tomorrow with detailed explanation how I came up with the numbers.
jktdet and EVERYONE
Sorry did not mean to offend you or anyone on this board. I'm just tired of you guys repeating the same things over and over.
If you look at the wells that have been drilled so far this year (there are 7 of them) they also have the flow per well disclosed. Based on that and the market price of oil and NG during the 2Q (average) you can make some projections what the numbers will look like. I'll work on some projections myself tonight and I'll post them tomorrow. I do not guaranty that the numbers will be completely accurate but it will be my best "guess" based on the info I have.
I think it will be a good idea if all of us make some projections for the 2Q to best of our knowledge and post it and then discuss and see if we can come up with some average or some number all of us agree the 2Q numbers might be.
If the IR does not share with us too much then we can calculate the numbers ourselves (to best of our knowledge of course)
I think this will be fun and we can learn from each other don't you agree? This is an example what I expect from this board...
Anyone on this board wishes to join this projections for 2Q - since it seemed very hot topic here...
hillzman understood.
I guess you did exactly what I said in the last few posts. If anyone is not happy with the stock then just sell. But buying and holding the stock and still complaining is out of my understanding.
Some people on this board should follow your example - sell and move to another investment that they can live with instead of complaining.
Good luck with your other investments
I thought I'm the only one who sees the present as buying opportunity.
jktdet read post #3027
jjgarcia I have positions that are as high as $0.38 my lowest is $22.5 (my average is about $0.29) if the price stays at $0.22-$0.25 I'll open one more position by mid Aug which will bring my average down to $0.27-$0.28. At current market price I'm down. So I'm in the same boat as you are.
hillzman
So you are investing on "everything else"?
Correct me if I'm wrong but you are investing on NEWS is that correct? If yes, I'll say no more....
To Everyone.........I do not disagree that the IR need to communicate or everything else said about the company since I'm in the SAME boat.
Bot most of mentioned issues, I believe, have rational explanation. Somebody on this board mentioned that the IR is not communication since they want to buy back shares at lower price. I don't know if its true or not but its rational. Another example is the 17 million shares that were issued in late 2006 that supposedly drive the price down. Well the rational behind it is that since Nov 2006 there were more than 30 million shares traded. So you make your own conclusions....
An investor makes his/her decisions based on what is available and all of us have (or don't have) access to the SAME information no one is privileged. Then one makes decision based on what is available. One may see something to be a treat to the future of the company and they Sell (and this is OK) others like myself see it as an opportunity just to buy more. Make up your minds and stick to your plan.
For the past 4 month I have not heard anything on this board but complains. I hope we can start some productive communication or find the rational answers now instead of complaining.
tricoast1 let me ask you something. What is the underlying strength of any stock? – It's financial performance - right. Any stock is valued based on its financial performance and everything else affects the stock only in a short term therefore its MINOR. Eventually any stock will comes back and reflects its underlying financial strength or weakness. Am I right? PRVB numbers luck better and better year over year. And the bottom line is stock’s financial performance is healthy. Everything else like the IR is not communicating, or the Berlin stock exchange, or delay in the well programs etc. will affect the stock just in a short term which presents a BUYING opportunity.
Guys why don't you just sell and buy a stock you can leave with.
Sell take the loss and move on.....
The bottom line is PRVB is adding more and more wells as we move forward. The top and the bottom line have been consistently going up during the past 3 years. Everything else is just with minor importance.
jjgarcia..... if the company was telling us everything they do then the stock would be priced right and there wouldn't be a buying opportunity. There is risk with every purchase. The question is how much risk an investor can tolerate until he/she decides to sell and these are the one selling and pushing the price down today. The ones, like myself that are ready to take some extra risk for a greater reward will enjoy much higher ROI
ohgeez you are hopeless. I give up. You win
jjgarcia I couldn't agree with you more the IR definitely SUCK
But hay this creates opportunity to buy this sucker at a bargain price. Don't you think so?
MaxM they have completed 2 wells
Why are you asking if you can go ahead and check that yourself?
Oxyurid I'm more concerned about consistency. I would like to see at least one well every month.
Oxyurid add up all the wells they have completed so far this year. The average is about 1 well per month (that ads some $500K revenue a year per well). For a small company like PRVB this is a big deal.
Any comments....
ohgeez Let me tell you what my guess is.
You bought it at $0.0021 and you are still holding on to it since you sold your furniture and your furniture lost half of its value. I hope not too many investors followed your advise since they would be 50% down today how does it make you feel
ohgeez I never bought it
estock50 my guess is PRVB will reach the $3 dollar mark late 08 early 09. Assuming the following
1) we add wells to the existing pipelines with the same speed we currently do.
2) the oil prices stay over $60 and NG over $6
3) we get listed on AMEX
4) the share buyback program continues with the same speed until the end of 2008 (this will result in some 7,000,000 shares decrease in the float which represents about 10% from the float today)
5) the USD continues to drop that I'm sure will do unless Ben decides to rise interest rates which I doubt will happen
Note: And always keep it in mind that as we grow we may become attractive for M&A
I'm not a fortune teller, but this is how I see it. Any thoughts...
estock50 dont get me wrong I'm not complaining. I'm here for the long run. I wont sell it until it reaches $3 anyway and I'm positive that next summer it will be well above $1. What I am frustrated about is the speed its moving there is no action going on at all
But thanks for the support anyway ....
Oil is approaching record highs
Natural gas is backing up
And PRVB is heading south ha ha ha - I'm kind of getting used to it
StormyMonday I did not see the 50K shares at $0.22 or at least not in one single block
If somebody told me that this thing would have dropped to low 20 a year ago I you tell them that they are crazy. Hmmmmm funny aaaa
Nevertheless, I'm in here long term one way or another I see it as opportunity to buy more. As far as I am concerned nothing changed.
Natural Gas is under $6. Where is the bottom?
Any thoughts...
ohgeez did the chart look better an $0.002 when you bought it?
I don't think the cart looked aver good for the past year
stockdumper this is the right decision
ronning999 good point
I think the reversal may come after their quarterly report. Since the pressure will go down. That's what happened last Q.
I think a good point to enter will be right after they announce the quarterly results and get out in a week or so. But one need to play big to make some reasonable profit.
Any comment
ohgeez
Well you both it at $0.002.You are down 30%
Any comment ......
Did anyone read the OPEC announcement on money.CNN.com concerning oil prices.
According to OPEC the oil prices should be in the range of $60-$65/b. Meaning this $75/b current price wont last long.
Hope the price of oil will stay over $70 until our production picks up or at least until the NG prices rebound.
Any comments.
tricoast1 my answer will be at this point any PR is better than no PR at all....
But I think hiring more personal might be a good news since as you said it implies growth. Besides we got some update on the drilling progress.
Overally I'm pleased.
Bid $0.23 Ask $0.25 - It doesn't look good
We are heading down for today.