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OT: I have a degree in classical guitar performance and tried to make a living in music earlier. I now write software because girls (wives) tend to like money in the bank better than Bach in their ears.
Spring Lake
While it has become "common knowledge" that GTC stock is undervalued by this most extrodinary and talented group of bloggers on this site, the stock has been treated like that perfect Yamaha trumpet I picked up at a garage sale here in Michigan for $15 last spring. I thought, "Don't they understand what these are worth?" But there it is, $1.17 for a damn good company that isn't going away for a long while.
I think GTC management and BOD are honorable and will protect the long term interests of shareholders. IMO, the only logical explanation as to the stock price is that shares are being accumulated here through the use of various techniques. We only have hindsight and that is delayed by months sometimes. The reason I think it is accumulation is that I can't imagine anyone building a short position on a stock that could easily wipe them out overnight with GTC's possible/probable news stream out there.
All in all, I have to simply be grateful for low prices in a stock that I believe has a lot of value. I believe I need to keep building a position as the stock dips from time to time. I hope that GTC will carefully manage the company, but that is not under my control. I do appreciate the efforts of those here who are educated in this technology and who share information so that the whims of share price have less influence and patience has more sway.
Wow, that would be great.
What impact will the FDA trials for Atryn have on cash burn in 2008? I believe it will be PIII only but how expensive will it be? Will the cash burn remain roughly what it is now, go higher, go lower considering other sources of revenue and Atryn EU? If GTC continues to speculate with dilution derived cash at these prices it could be a very long wait for the promised land. On the other hand, if we use the momentum from Atryn EU and other revenues to first push prices higher, the dilution would be far less.
I don't know about the "valuation models", but I think you chose a good time to re-enter, based on my perceptions.
No, life on the farm is kind of laid back, as you know GOATFONDLER!
Another "entry in the journal" under the heading GTC can produce proteins in quantity for usage in applications where previously they were either too scarce or expensive or both. This theme will play out in other companies with other platforms but there will be plenty of turf to play on and it is more having the know how in place to get the job done than which is the very best platform.
Probably good for GTC/LFB relationship long term IMO.
To answer my own question, at least the costs of PI and PII are recouped. It does make sense, I just am frustrated at the PPS and lack of interest. That will change, however, and this is not a bad place to be.
How much more expensive would it have been to go for FDA approval first? Atryn Europe is adding nothing to this stock it seems.
Good info, and thanks.
In this case, I agree with the shares. I perceive GTC is going to increase cash flow and although more money will be needed before becoming CF positive, the amount needed in 2008 should be small enough by then that financing on more favorable terms may be available to them. To that end, every little bit helps in terms of conserving cash until they reach that point. I would hope that the next financing would be under 10 million and hold out for the possibility of a note (can always hope).
This paragraph confused me:
>>Start manages and licenses a broad portfolio of intellectual property rights related to animal reproductive technologies, including foundational nuclear transfer cloning technology that was developed at the Roslin Institute for the cloning of Dolly the sheep. <<
Dew, how does the general debate on cloning fit into what GTCB is doing? I am not sure exactly how I feel about it, but some are very adamantly opposed to animal cloning and may cause some investors to turn up their nose. I don't know; thought I'd ask. I suspect GTC's involvement is outside the scope of anything controversial.
More dillution press might work...
You might want to save some powder. This stock just took a 25% jump with the sector. At any rate I own some goat nipples just like you.
When goats fly.
One would think this is the most mundane technology in the universe judging solely from the stock pricing.
BTW, thanks a lot for posting the note.
If income 2009, then no more massive dillution if prudent management IMO.
With respect, I feel that this "EU factor" supposedly benefiting Pharming is about as clear as mud to me. It would be as easy to make the reverse argument if the PPS were reversed IMO. I would have to be convinced.
I personally think Jesselivermoor's argument that the PPS of $1 is really hurting us. So, Jesselivermoor, I think you might consider hobnobbing with the Hilton's, Oprah, Sophia Loren, and other elite and filthy rich women, even Martha. Use your legendary charm and reputation to promote this company. I know you are already up to your elbows in this stock, but could you use some more of that 1930's crash money to support this company?
Thanks in advance
>>3. GTC just hired a business-development executive (Ashley Lawton) whose job is to focus on inking new partnerships.<<
I guess the rose colored glasses would color this as an attempt to obtain some kind of contribution in terms of cash flow if successful; perhaps significant enough to forstall cash raising until it becomes a minor to non-issue. I mean, if the cash burn gets down to under 5M/qtr. and improving, then it is a whole new ball game IMO.
Curious as to what you all think the cash burn and need for financing picture looks like today, based on developments and quarterly report and CC. Thanks.
CC clearly laid out a new direction in terms of dillution.
Out of the 70M+ shares, how many do you think represent shareholders who listened to the call? More than enough to be sellers in this market climate IMO.
"Jesse Livermore......a handsome and powerful man who cherishes his secrecy and his private life. He moves in silence and mystery and is like catnip to women." (from reliable source I cannot divulge)
Caution: Following this man's example will lead you into despair.
Thank you Dew, for the effort. I appreciate it. To the text I add the intangible feeling I got that GTCB management has become more accountable, possibly because of the drop in share price. Good news on the equity/partnering portion, but then, LOL, how the heck do you do financing when staring at sub-dollar pricing? We don't want to go there. Still, to have them say it so clearly is refreshing.
So, I was wrong when I wrote that it felt like some dilutive deal was in the works. At least it looks that way.
I don't know, I think the financial markets can sense when a company is turning a corner and word will get around and this kind of buying opportunity may not last more than a few more months. Maybe this is what you are saying.
Great, first day under a buck. Newberry sort of poo-pooed my concern over delisting after the dillution when I called and expressed my fears of just that happening. Well, maybe this is what is needed to jolt this management into action. I can just hear them talking, now with some concern over not just being a penny stock, but actualy having the "great science" of GTCB get delisted and Cox will have to tell folks at parties about how they may have to do a reverse split. Everyone knows these things happen to shitty companies usualy.
Would it hurt our scientific sensibilities if GTCB indulged in a few self-serving promotional efforts?
Is there a doctor in the house? Buy please.
Added .97
My bad then. No offense taken.
Regarding "great" religions, I would think it a good wager that the true founders of this technology, the handful of people who turned this idea into reality (speaking of transgenics) by and large adhere to one of them. Might even be a "fundamentalist" in the group. Just my guess.
That's because, throughout history, it is generally true that the greatest discoveries are achieved through the greatest hardship and trial and difficulties, which in turn are generally sustained through faith, which in turn is generally institutionalized in one of these "great" religions. Not always, of course, but generally true.
Honestly, I can hardly believe this stock is so close to slipping to pre-approval pricing!
I am not bashing here, haven't bought more yet, and am actually hoping for a ridiculous scenario soon; the proverbial "no-brainer".
>>plasma proteins and other difficult-to-express molecules<<
Dew; "difficult-to-express", I'm afraid I probably misunderstand this. If our forte' is difficult things, are we possibly passing up easy things because:
1) We are confident we can do the difficult better, and the reward potential is worth the risk.
2) We like less competition and feel that development costs being substantial in any case, let's go for more expensive, harder to develop proteins.
3) We have a de facto advantage in plasma proteins and other difficult-to-express molecules.
Another question I have has to do with GTC's research team. Do you think they are researching new applications or what you may call areas with "breakthrough" potential? If so, what have they really advanced within the last year and isn't it unusual that they haven't published some advance with future potential for the company (or maybe I have missed some). I surmise that GTC's entire team is focused on pursuing already established programs and they are not currently pushing for new longer term science.
Dew, re. "U.S. ATryn time line" I believe the FDA trial would start in PIII. Could you elaborate on that somewhat; exactly how do we know that we have satisfied PI, PII at the FDA and then please comment on whether you think the investing public, maybe institutional as well, is fully up to speed on this aspect, the likely hood of fast track, etc. Thanks.