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Threes, I agree completely. Those who suggest the SP is not going to move soon do so in the face a mounting evidence suggesting otherwise.
We'll see. When we do, won't it be sweet!
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Peregrine's multi-faceted approach to bringing bavituximab to commercial success is firing on all twelve cylinders.
Sunrise will hit important milestones with full enrollment and early look-ins in the next months.
BMS and AstraZeneca are showing strong interest as shown by their clinical collaborations with Peregrine.
The contracted research at MSK will increase Bavi's credibility. Particularly as MSK will investigate Bavi's synergy with the latest immune therapy products from the BPs.
Avid is expanding rapidly to support Bavi's commercial launch and to satisfy increasing demand from third party customers as confirmed by the growing contract backlog.
The critics here continue to snipe away but the quality of their arguments just gets lamer and lamer. The volume is going up, but the content is cratering.
The next few months look very promising. A major partnership could occur at any time.
Success is still uncertain, but IMO the likelihood of success is at an all time high. Maybe we will see that $16 per share price again.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
The closer we get to the turning point for Peregrine, the more pressure we see on the share price. You might think the SP would rise under these conditions.
Peregrine is about seven weeks from Sunrise full enrollment. More significant data updates are coming in the next few weeks to months.
Clearly anyone can see that Peregrine has the funding to take Bavi to commercialization without making a cheapo deal with some Machiavellian BP. So, why the pressure campaign to intensify doubt in Peregrine's chance to succeed?
I like the "last chance to profit by manipulating the SP while PPHM shares are still vulnerable" theory. Drag down the SP few pennies, buy hundreds of thousands of shares, and then sell on the very likely bounce. If you do this 5-10 times a year, you could send a few kids through college, lease a few fancy cars, and generally consider yourself a financial wizard.
My point is that the chance to play this kind of game will end when Peregrine leaves the bargain basement SP levels. Soon would be nice.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Apparently BMS and AstraZeneca have no problem dealing with this management. If Bavi comes through in the Sunrise Phase III study with stellar data, I am very optimistic that this team will know how to monetize it.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Thanks, tradero. I guess what confused me is the breakdown by months. A more precise median number in days would be easier for me to understand.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
tradero, let me try again to explain my question.
In your eventing Case 1 Table under the Placebo column, the total at bottom is 50% for those patients getting the placebo. So far, so good.
Now if we add the percentage of events in that column for 3, 5 and 7 months we get 5 + 11 + 18, or 34%. So, for the first 7 months, we get 34% of the 50% of the Placebo patients eventing. That leaves only 16% of the 50% Placebo patients surviving over 7 months.
My expectation was that of the 50% of the trial patients who are on the placebo, 25% would survive less than 7 months and 25% would survive more than 7 months.
Perhaps, your table is affected by the enrollment rate's increase over time?
TIA, Paul
trader, I appreciate the hard work going into this study. I do have a question regarding your eventing tables. If the median period for eventing is 11 months, shouldn't the number of survivors after 11 months equal 50% of the patients? Your tables show fewer than half of the patients in the over the median break point.
Thanks, Paul
aELmTPa, thanks for your opinion. We all understand your point of view. In fact it has been amply pronounced countless times here.
Best of luck and good bye,
Paul
I suppose this was meant to elicit a response. So, here you go. The market cap today does not begin to reflect the market cap we may see at this time next year.
Happy?
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Only two months to completed enrollment in the Sunrise Phase III trial. Must have 500 patients under treatment worldwide, 250 or so with Bavi in their veins.
SK told us they expect the first look-in triggered by 33% of the trial patients evented in the first half of 2016. For the patients sake I hope we don't see the first look-in for a while. If the wait extends past March, and if the share price continues at these low levels, it will be very tempting to add to my already substantial share count.
We'll see.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Cotara was a good scientific concept that did provide years of extra life to some GBM clinical trial patients. Unfortunately, the oncology business didn't see how they could make any money with it. So, it sits.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
CP, you have clearly exposed PDB's assertions for what they are - disinformation. Knowing the lengths some will go to damage Peregrine's reputation is instructive.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
How big can tomorrow's news be?
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
I have to wonder what the SP would be if there was no doubt regarding the second line Phase 2 NSCLC trial's outcome. I find it hard to believe we would be less than $2 a share, perhaps much more.
In any case when the Sunrise Phase III data comes out mid next year, I hope the share price will make up for the lost years of misery caused by those CSM idiots in Fargo.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Maybe I was confusing you with Hypi. Sorry.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
eb0783, thank you for pointing out the disturbing consistency. Unfortunately, v-pu is not alone.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Peregrine potential value has greatly increased IMO since the discovery of Bavi's MOA which increases our immune systems ability to fight cancers. It then increased more IMO when Peregrine learned that Bavi increases the effectiveness of the new immune-oncology treatment created by the BPs.
Peregrine has pushed Bavi for years. Clearly, Bavi will show it's value in the chemo combo Phase III Sunrise trial by mid-2016. With Memorial Sloan Kettering and a few small clinical trials, Bavi will also show what it can do with BPs latest immune-oncology darlings during the course of the next months.
I like how this is going. When the good news comes, the market which has ignored Peregrine's potential will react when they can see the money BPs are willing to pay for a piece of Peregrine. How sweet that will be.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Just an observation. Bavi with chemo looks interesting. Sunrise will tell us how interesting.
Bavi with the new immuno-oncology wave could be even more interesting. How can a BP leverage their huge commitment to these new drugs? Make them more effective in more patients. In other words Bavi.
We will soon learn how interesting Bavi and Peregrine might be. If we get news in either path, we will be OK. If we get good news in both paths, we will be very OK IMO.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Manchester, while the SP has steadily fallen, IMO the potential purchase price of Peregrine has steadily risen. I assess the potential share price increase based on the preclinical research showing the potential synergies between Bavi and the crop of immunotherapies coming out of the Big Pharmas.
In answer to your question no one here knows. However, if there is no big money partnership or buyout, I don't expect to see $2 until data comes from Sunrise just after mid-2016. If we have a big money deal, we could see $2 any time in the next few weeks or months.
If either good news scenarios plays out, we might blow by $2 in a morning or afternoon.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Apparently we are still in the "show us the money" situation as regards the PPS. The only glimmer of hope for the share price is a deal permiting Peregrine to shut down the ATM. Only then, potential investors can focus more on the near future prospects instead of the present dilutive reality. Just my opinion.
Is such a deal imminent? Who knows? Probably not, but could happen tomorrow.
Sadly, I don't hold out much hope for a huge bounce from the Sunrise full enrollment PR. I expect the market to continue applying the "show us the money" rule.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
CP, as to the number of share traded AH, I passed along what I read here. OOPS.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Still looking for an reason why 25000 or so shares changed hands after hours on Friday at 15% more than the high of the day. Maybe somebody lost a bet? Don't tell me the amount is meaningless. I'm just curious how something like this could happen.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
md1225, I am as optimistic as the next guy. However, if we go up 50% on full enrollment, I'll be pleasantly surprised. IMO we don't see a mega-move until Sunrise produces survival data equaling or exceeding those great Phase II numbers. Then, I hope to see us back to $4-5 in a few days.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Thanks very much Copper. Good to know I should not get too excited about the first Sunrise look-in.
Did you get the sense that the management team is somewhat confident, very confident, too confident or not confident?
TIA, Paul
Here's a wildly optimistic explanation for the AH purchase of PPHM shares well above the daily high. AstraZeneca is buying the shares to boost the price. The theory being they are toying with idea of a big deal with Peregrine, and they are aware that Peregrine management won't deal while the share price is so low.
Perhaps this is unlikely. I wouldn't know.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
No, Chevyguy, the number of shares is not the most important thing happening with Peregrine. It was predictable.
The race between Peregrine's ability to raise money and Peregrine's need for money to bring Bavi to commercialization is all but over. Peregrine has enough money to complete Sunrise, and with Sunrise success will have no trouble raising more through partnering or whatever.
The only real question is how well Bavi does in the clinic. The fact that BMS and AstraZeneca are interested in Bavi lends support to those of us who think Bavi will show winning results in Sunrise.
Stay tuned.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Big year for Peregrine, and it ain't over yet.
Growing relationship with AstraZeneca.
Growing Avid facility.
Growing list of clinical studies.
Growing enrollment list for Sunrise.
No spinning these simple facts.
If we can just get the share price going by year's end, it will be a good year indeed.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
No offense to "all your years of investing", but I still haven't heard any explanation why tens of thousands of shares would change hands at a price 15% higher than the day's high.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
pvl, you are long on opinions. Why a significant number of shares would trade hands well above the day's price range is an interesting question. It is easy to say it means nothing; it is equally easy to say it means something. I'll just say let's wait till Monday and see.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Peregrine management has moved Bavi out of the shadows and into the immunotherapy spotlight. The multiple collaborations, MSK research, and multiple clinical trials are putting Bavi to the test. Only a very confident management would expose their product so confidently. Many of us here believe we have reason to expect Bavi will not disappoint.
Too bad "the market" does not share our assessment. Maybe they will. Maybe soon.
GLTA, Especial Sunrise Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
So, the trials are expanding, collaborations are expanding, Avid may even be expanding. If we can get the share price expanding, won't we all be happy? Well, maybe not all of us.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Clearly the PPHM sale price is held down by market forces. Maybe routine 'show us the money forces' or by small focused groups of investors. I don't know there are such small groups. However, it is not hard to envision groups of investor who understand the nature of a company like Peregrine, and who know how to take advantage of this nature.
For instance, a company like Peregrine has great promise, but the promise will not be actualized quickly. So, when the Peregrine news cycle is slow, the share price will probably drop. It might even drop faster at some times due to simple, low cost actions. At this time such investors could buy PPHM very cheaply.
When the Peregrine news cycle turns positive, the shares purchased cheaply can be sold for nice profits. And they can "rinse and repeat" this process over the years required to bring a new drug to market.
In either case once a positive news trend is irreversible, which we hope to see very soon, the market will reward Peregrine and its shareholders accordingly.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
north40000, not only would Peregrine know what the IDMC tells them, but they may also know how much Bavi Avid is shipping out. Maybe they ship out the drug on a monthly basis. If so, the current number of Bavi-arm patients might be trackable. From that they could know something about enrollment and Bavi-arm survival.
Just saying.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
edcpf, note SK referenced 'one of those earlier events'. Clearly this means SK considers an early unblinding from the first look-in a possibility. That first look-in may be only a few months away.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Stoneroad, I too was shocked to hear SK say the Sunrise interim results could trigger trial unblinding. This would be the kind of news that could move the SP up dollars in hours.
I also thought I heard him say something about the Sunrise trial generating positive data. He might have been referring to other Bavi studies, but he made reference to the positive data immediately after mentioning Sunrise. Maybe I should listen to that segment again.
I don't know what kind of data Peregrine might have from a blinded trial. Of course, they are aware of enrollment data and they might be aware of the trial 'events'; so, they might be able to draw conclusions on the likely patient survival trends.
More Avid expansion under consideration?
Say what you will, these few minutes sounded very optimistic to me.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Congrats to Peregrine team! This budding romance with AstraZeneca looks like the beginning of a beautiful relationship.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Rev-monster, if it wasn't for the 'wrong team' there would be no science to deliver to market.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Thank goodness we have the ASM in two days. Maybe we'll actually have something important to discuss.
GLTA, Especially Sunrise Bavi-arm Patients,
Paul
PVL, we agree on very little. I changed my guestimate of the first Sunrise look-in at the last CC, when Steve King told us when to expect it.
He confirmed the full Sunrise enrollment is expected by calendar year end 2015. However, several of my estimate assumptions were wrong. Some combination of the below threw my guess off:
1. Phase III study patients are much healthier than the Phase II patients.
2. Early enrollment was slower than I guessed.
3. Bavi-arm patients are living even longer than expected.
Also, I still believe a substantial partnership agreement is possible this year. If a partnership deal was possible in 2012, it is more possible now IMO.
Paul