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Most Likely all the "easy" money has been made on AAGH to this point. Now it takes patience to see what else they can squeeze out from this stock in the next few Q's
Honestly,
We don't really know the potential what MAK has here with WWTBAM for a year + potential renewal. How much payoff is WWTBAM going to be after approx 75 million additional shares issued since they acquired right to program?
Han,
My point is you have created unreasonable expectations for the current stock price of AAGH by your DD. You acknowledge just cut by a factor of X and it is still undervalued. In your original DD post you told everyone to post your DD analysis around like it was the Gospel truth. It is not comforting to newer investors in AAGH to see your obvious hype without any rational basis numbers when the stock price is lagging.
If I cut your EPS by a factor of anything doesn't that imply that the DD was inflated hyped and faulty to begin with? How about we wait for Mak to provide somenumbers going forward before we paste your DD everywhere and claim it as gospel.
Han says stock worth at least $1 a share NOW by his calculations. Well, the market doesn't agree with your assessment. He is expecting spectacular numbers from a show that is going on 10 years old and is in communist China and almost expecting by his extrapolation revenue ad dollars like it was in US during its peak ($500,000 a minute in ad revenue). The Hong Kong China version was cancelled after only 5 months on falling interest in the show.
They will have to build up ratings before any national Companies will bother to advertise on WWTBAW. Looks like Han will have to revise his $3.5 milion Advertising revenue for each episode lower down to what I expected (below $1 for sure).
Anybody down 99.9999999% in PDSF stock and willing to admit it?
Karney definitely has a titanic intellect....in a world full of icebergs....ROFL
81 million shares traded and still $.0001...LOL. Maybe time for the PR about being invited to the White House as potential businessman of the year award foor 2007...ROFL
PDSF PR should read appoints some more dead wood in the personnel department but at least he is CFL HOF....ROTFLMA
PDSF...Slip sliding away $.0001. When is the next reverse split Karney? Maybe a 1 for 10,000 reverse will buy you more time in this fruad of so called Company...LOL
Han,
You definitely have a titanic intellect...in a world full of icebergs.
Yes,
Re-run on Sunday afternoon like 12:40 P.M. Hard to tell what % of revenue less for Sunday?
Croughingdragon,
Great research as we now have some real world comparable numbers from a hit show in China (not some GDP and population extrapolation b.s.) $460,000 Yuan for a minute with a 7.5 to 1 currency conversion ratio gives a price of $61,333 per minute of advertising revenue. If 15 minutes long (or an multiple there of) then about $920,000 revenue or about $386,000 for AAGH's cut of 42%.
Han your DD is suspect to say the least. Using GDP of population of countries in comparison with known advertising rates to figure the chinese comparables. Come on you think Chinese advertising rates anything near what they pay in U.S.? I'll bet 1 million per episode gross ad revenue is as high as a person could realistically figure on. The question why hasn't MAK releashes anything on potential ad revenue leads me to believe it will be a lot lower than anticipated. But, you must be right as you have all the peoplemarks on Investorshub....you must have a lot of lemming followers of your DD, right...LOL
This is why I try to always sell 50% of position after a stock doubles or more (especially bb stocks). It is a good rule of thumb as it hedges your bet and takes the EMOTION out of it. Only the good LORD knows where the price is headed.
You don't add it cash on hand and assets to fair value EPS company valuations. You could use those amounts in other valuation methods but not combined.
With 400 milllion shares approx and $22 million in annual earnings we get a $.055 EPS (22/400). This would be a fair valuation of Gtec stock going forward as long as those are audited numbers.
10X PE = $.555 a share
20X PE = $1.11 a share
30X PE = $1.65 a share
If anything left over after distribution of said Gtec assets then their will be a cash dividend (IF there is anything left over).
The Future of GTEC
GTEC has become a pharmaceutical company, with a subsidiary that holds the stock earned during its previous private-to-public business model. That stock will be liquidated, over a period of time, and the resulting cash will be utilized to cover existing and ongoing expenses related to the program, with the remaining cash, if any, to be distributed as a dividend to its U.S. shareholders. Upon liquidation, the subsidiary will be dissolved no later than 12 months hence.
Media, great T/A. I didn't know your T/A was so overwhelmingly powerful to actually affect the stock price according to 5"x5"...LOL
looks like $.219 PPS would be an important pivot point with that being the Fib number ($.355 x .618)?
I sold half of my position of 75,000 shares from $.06 into this last run average around $.31. I usually sell half of position when it doubles but the momemtum was so strong in a short time on this one that I held on longer. I had my position before that S-8 caused it to crater to $.018 PPS share. I say trust but verify on BB stocks especially ones from China. Anybody ever heard of CXTI and CESV for instance. Just because I play the devils advocate on my plays doesn't mean I am short of hoping for a downturn in price. I think the pumpers of any stock as just as bad than the potential short sellers as they manipulate also.
Han,
With your calculations you forgot to only include 42% of the ad revenue as Zixunmedia get 30% of total and CMP other partners 28%. All your calculations are really moot point until MAK tells us what numbers they are actually generating.
http://www.imdb.com/news/sb/2001-10-25
Surprised that the original foray into China at hong kong WWTBAM was cancelled after only 5 months. It was shown too frequently as a reson for burnout of audience.
Hong Kong Canceling Millionaire
Hong Kong may be the first international market to pull the plug on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire following declining ratings. The South China Morning Post reported today (Thursday) that the quiz show, which drew 2.5 million viewers during its opening five months ago, has seen the number plummet to 1.1 million currently. A spokesman for Hong Kong's ATV told the newspaper: "We are concerned the audience may be getting bored." Host Ken Chan suggested that it had been a mistake to make the show a five-night-a-week feature (up from three- when it debuted). "Five nights a week is too much," he said. "Viewers get the same host and same game and they are bound to become bored."
http://www.media-partners-asia.com/newsframe/050805.html
On Friday night, Star, a wholly owned subsidiary of News Corp. , launches "Kaun Banega Crorepati 2" (KBC 2) -- "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" --, with the aim of strengthening its position and driving its weekend viewing. Advertising rates are as high as $20,000 for 30 seconds.
Using India as a proxy for WWTBAM China advertising revenue.
GDP : India: $4.156 trillion China: $10.17 trillion (2.45x of India)
Population/Market Size : India’s: 1.13 billion; China’s: 1.3 billion (1.15 X of India’s);
India’s Calculation:
$20,000 x 2 ads per minute x 10 minutes = $400,000 of ads revenue of 10 minutes per a 60 minutes episode. 1.5 for a 90 minute ad = $600,000 per original airing show on Saturday
AAGH's take of Advertising revenue:
$600,000 x 42% = $168,000 per Saturday airing x 12 = $2,016,000 per Q. (28% of revenues to CMP other owners Kolmanski International Limited and Region Giants Limited and 30% to Zinunmedia)
CMP entered into an agreement with China advertising media sales agency Zixunmedia on November 11, 2006. Pursuant to PRC regulations, only a licensed advertising agency can sell advertising and collect payments for advertising sales in China. Zixunmedia is licensed pursuant to PRC laws and will receive thirty percent (30%) of the revenues generated from advertising during the Who Wants To Be A Millionaire? TV program. CMP will retain seventy percent (70%) of the revenues generated from the advertising. Bingo
If cost structure is 40% of revenues split then net revenue per Q will be $2,016,000 x 60% = $1,209,600 / 109,000,000 Shares OR about $.01 per Q
Hard to say what the revenues would be on Sunday repeat airing of video. Please cut and past this and post it around if you like. I think this is the time that FUNDAMENTAL should OUTSHINE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PDSF,
No PRs for over a month. I guess their creativity of recycled PRs has been stymied so far. How many loads of Sqherquat were shipped...LOL
Only three (3) sure things in life...death...taxes and PDSF (or whatever symbol it next morphs into)...PPS of $.0001
I never knew fund managers invested in BB stocks around $.30 a share?
Han,
You still expecting "$.60 print by the end of the week" or a continued pullback after you consulted the chart?
Rake,
How high is AAGH PPS going tommorrow and why? Is your analysis based on T/A, fundamental or just your inate knowledge of this stock. Inquiring minds want to know. I figure it will sell off some as "buy on rumor sell on news" phenomenom.
Hong Kong CHINA: The first series debuted on April 29, 2001, and was popular enough for a second series to begin airing on July 22, 2002. The first millionaire was the team with famous composer Wong Jim and actress Fung Po Po during a special celebrity episode dedicated for charities where the winnings of each celebrity is donated to a different charity of their own choices. The Hong Kong-produced version is also shown in China, and it therefore had to pass Chinese government censors. The programme generated high enough ratings that at one point, the channel was showing fresh episodes every day of the week. Asia Television, the broadcasting network, was swamped with commercials during the hour the programme aired.
What is the comparison too in record breaking numbers that you believe the show will achieve?
I suppose fully diluted we need to ad in Maks 100 million shares when they are eventually converted over so the figure is right at 210 million for future eps projections
http://english.people.com.cn/200312/31/eng20031231_131598.shtml
This may not affect WWTBAM becuase their timeslot is at the outer band of the restriction. I haven't found any ad restrictions beyond that time frame in question yet.
In 2003 Chinese regulations set strict limits on the total length of ads allowed. For instance, the length of advertisements between 7 pm to 9 pm in each channel should be less than 9 minutes, or 15 per cent of the whole programme's length. I know that WWTBAM falls mostly outside of that time frame (I don't know if they have limitations on total Advertising beyond that time frame. Also states that the show will run for 80 minutes. amybe that means their will be 10 minutes total of a 90 minute. Your calculations are figuring in 28 minutes of a 90 minute show as commercials. I think that is much too high even though in USA it maybe that high!!
The equation for AAGH future price appreciation =
.42X where x is the weekly ad revenue from WWTBAM
Until the equation is solved AAGH PPS will probably be range bound between $.25 -$.35 or thereabouts.
I would guess it is the old "buy on rumor sell on news" phenomenon. It is a known entity the show will occur Sept 29th. The amount of revenue derived is till unknown. also AAGH has 4x in last month along with other momo in Chinese stocks. I still say we need some numbers from the Company to get the multi-millions in volume from NEW investors to move the stock price.
It will be interesting how long before info on potential advertising revenue is divulged. I think that will be the next impetus for AAGH's next major price move (either way)
It was probably just a trade between MM's to create excitement (i.e didn't really move at all as evidenced by it going down to $.0001 next trade)
Any chance that MAK takes advantage of AAGH stock price and issues another S-8 anytime soon?