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I'm curious if whatever it is that's coming will end up being good for the price of FNMA Commons.
Of course ending the Conservatorships will good for all shareholders; however, will it mean a positive impact to price of Commons or not?
I guess that depends on what other news comes along with this news.
Either way, it's coming amigos!!
Right before Christmas. Average Joes all get Coal. Ouch!
Receivership?? Muy No Bueno Amigos!
FHFA instructs GSEs to prepare for Receivership -- https://www.fhfa.gov/SupervisionRegulation/Rules/RuleDocuments/Resolution%20Planning%20NPR%20TO%20FR_for%20website.pdf
Agreed. Mods should sticky your post. Warrants incoming!
When the Warrants are exercised at $0.00001, who will we file the lawsuits against?
Will it be against the FHFA, Treasury, GSEs, or the Financial Advisors (JPM & MS)?
I'm surprised Ackman isn't betting bigger on the GSEs. What's his position now as a percent of his portfolio, ~1%?
You'd think a guy with this much committment and belief would have a much larger stake, similar to Berkowitz and Paulson.
This post will be proven incorrect within 6 months.
It's smart to Sell the Pops. We know FNMA Always Drops.
Typical. When FNFMA Facts matter, Commons can't Rally.
It's only irrational exuberance that drives Commons. And FNMA is going to need a whole lot more of that to break away from the $2 Magnet.
Umbrella Time?
This post is filled with FNMA Facts. Sticky!!
Is Fannie Claus coming to town this week?
Or did the Average Joes end up on the Naughty List?
I would expect the inverse to occur.
It's hard for a stock to rally when its Common shares are staring down a $100B Capital Raise.
But, depressed JPS shares will react positively when the companies quickly become recapitalized and can resume dividends in the next 12-24 months
You're forgetting about the upcoming Jr. Preferred-to-Common Conversion.
You see, once this Conversion occurs all JPS will be the same as existing Commons.
And then we all enjoy the rise to $1,000 per share plus Treble Damages.
Preferred shares always receive preferential treatment, hence their name.
Inferior shares such as Commons -- the lowest of low on the totem pole -- will soon learn a lesson in Capital Structure
2x or 3x might be all Commons see, yet many are all-in on them. And Commons might not even go up from these prices at all, or could even go down, depending on what resolution we see.
So which is the bigger risk?
FNMA loves lawsuits. We should all file one!
Agreed. And then Jr. Preferreds Convert thereafter.
Considering the limited upside of Commons, I'm not sure Jr. Preferres are even going to want to Convert unless they're presented with a really juicy offer.
We should have more clarity on this very soon.
Unless, the whole trade is about to fall apart. Scary times amigos
Is this what's coming amigos?
The clock is ticking, it's time for action.
Do prices sell off until action or at least until we have more clarity?
Uncertainty is rising with Tempers, and along with Expectations.
#BuckleUp
Good Luck indeed. We're all going to need it!
Are we going to lose it all at the end?
Say it ain't so FNMA!
Can we sticky these FNMA Facts?
Commons have quite a battle ahead of them.
As per Pagliara yesterday, it might take Commons 4-5 years to see $5.
It looks like most of the Average Joes Sold the Pop and now we have the Lemmings (who are always slow) finally realizing they are in No Man's Land now.
The $2 Magnet is going to get stronger and stronger in the days ahead.
This is factually incorrect in numerous ways.
In essence, almost everything you said is False (aka FNMA Fantasy).
2-3 years to see $5. That sounds terrible for Commons.
"He notes that Nomura puts the base value of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's common shares at $5, but that doesn't include any additional upside from what's happening now. He also said the GSEs will become new companies. They'll need two to three years of operating history and execution before that upside will materialize."
Sold the Pop again today. This is getting easy!