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Yes and they did a 1 for 20 RS 2 months ago as well.
Do you think advaxis is gearing up for a r/s?
Lol! Now that is funny. I did see that but was too shy to post it here. Good work.
Looks like psa is our best chance of at least getting a signed deal with some cash. Come on advaxis, you have countless drugs/trials going on and not a single partner. This is ludicrous.
Also, neo needs to be offloaded soon, hopefully.
So the question should be where does ADXS still have rights - U.S. and Europe
This is the right question for getting partnership money from Axal Cerv soon. Still nothing from the FDA either on the trial change.
I still hope the trial change was triggered by a partner ready to sign once it's resolved...But then again nothing makes sense out of this company anymore.
So what have prior licensing deals with Knight and other groups like Biocon been for?
Oh sorry, I meant US/EU was 400 million and I got that by adding up the numbers in their corporate deck.
So 500 million worldwide... but we already gave away a bunch of the rights didn't we?
Unfortunately, ADXS has been agressively trying to partner that program for the last two years
Tony said it was only a matter of time before they'd sign a deal to include both US and EU rights as the EMA decision approached. MY GOSH DID THESE GUYS JUST FAIL. Add to that Ken almost canned the whole trial in a fire sale. Can't make this up.
I dont know how much they'd get for it but their estimates put the whole market for AIM2CERV to be around 400 million...
Fbg, what do you think of the notion that costs had anything to do with the termination? Also, what's your response to those that say you can't garner meaningful data in this short a time frame..?
Interesting. OK, thank you.
Missing a primary end point in a p2 is a legitimate reason for terminating a partnership. The Amgen termination is still somewhat strange to me though given how early it was cancelled. I agree they saw something, but I'm not sold that it was data that did it. If it is mostly cost issues then that doesn't bode well either...
How far along was Aduro with their LADD trials when Janssen decided to drop their partnership with them? Was it similar in time frames to what just happened with Advaxis and Amgen?
I also wonder how many big BP deals get terminated before the completion of a P1 trial.... Can't be that many.
So are you interpreting this 8k to mean that the 75 million newly authorized shares are now subject to the r/s should they still choose to do one?
No doubt this stock is teetering and is about to break heavy one way or the other. R/S with no news is my big worry. So many franchises and a P3 nearing completion and we're at this point.
I'll be ready for a vacation as soon as the R/S hits the wire.
Which one of those brings in cash and how much is the question?
The r/s is only so they can dilute at this point in time because they have no money and need to increase the relative share amount (75 million not subject to the reverse) that they can issue...
Now if I had to pick one of your scenarios that could bring in cash soon, i'd go with 3.
Expect 1:20 R/S announced Friday after the close.
Possible, but doubtful. Seems far too soon to r/s. They need news lined up or this show is over...
I hope they can get .30 a share and dilute at least 100m shares
$20 million mkt cap with 5 million outstanding shares (post r/s) and they dump 100 million shares to raise $30 million? No chance that happens.
That's what a 3 billion dollar market cap can get ya. Actually, that's only half of what DOC said Advaxis should be worth by now. We'll just have to keep dreaming.
So basically every IO company in this field is undervalued. Interesting...
You're correct, HOT was discussed a few months after NEO was unveiled through the Amgen partnership.
Still would bet Amgen absolutely knew about HOT though, seems silly for Advaxis not to have discussed it with them. IMO.
Yes, and I understand your point. The cash burn after Doc only accelerated during the Tony tenure which made it worse. It is what it is. But Doc didn't leave us with penny's, he left us with a fair bit of cash that was pissed away. That was my point.
Jeepers blue, I said at todays rate! I'm saying that we had tons of cash had we just managed it.
HOT was an unknown construct at the time that Amgen signed the NEO deal. Amgen probably didn’t know it existed at the time.
Really? We know this?
I thought the 2 were announced at the same time. HOT was announced around the time that Amgen signed and we announced NEO. Maybe Amgen didn't know about it but HOT has been around as long as NEO from what the company has said...
I said at todays burn which is roughly 45 million a year. We are doing the same amount of stuff, if not more, at half the burn.
I know we had around 120 million in May... so yeah, not 3 years but definitely more than a couple.
I agree with your numbers etc.
My question is how did they get a 65 million deal 2.5 years ago for what many argue here as is inferior product to HOT? I have to think they should be able to get the same today or more given the progress. Unless the science is bunk, and if so we're all screwed.
adxs has`nt even had 2 years of cash in many years,and that`s why we`re always under assault.
Wrong. Doc left us with nearly 3 years of cash at our current burn rate. Just be honest, this company blew it all on ridiculous stuff including outsized workforce, EMA/plant, and a host of other absurd things.
One can only pray AIM2CERV gets us even half the amount you state. Mind you this is the same program Ken almost buried. No way its 100 million upfront otherwise he'd be seen as an even bigger idiot than he already is..
More trials today than ever before but with fewer employees, how is that supposed to work?
Ken has been fairly prudent on cutting what he thinks he can. I have to believe he has something lined up for NEO and HOT (now being paid for by us) or this whole thing is a ruse.... No way he can fund these through dilution for more than a couple additional months and he must know that.
Well said. Management vs science. Management holds much more power than people think. Either invest in an idea/product that a even a lawyer can sell, or invest in management you can trust. Biotech needs management.
They can't just raise 2 years cash at these levels. They have to sign a deal. What's keeping them from signing a deal is beyond me. The science has data and deals happen all the time at these stages. I'll hold till we get news, but i'll be looking to take some off when it makes sense.
What a pitiful outcome. I'm not sure what I was expecting to get out of the proxy, but that was not it. My only hope is that they pump this when the r/s and dilution happen so I can make a decision on getting out then or not. Lesson learned.
Could they be announcing a dump today?
Wow. OK. Expected.
Maybe now we can get a TRIL like issuance soon: THeir market cap was right around ours just before they dropped this bomb.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trillium-announces-pricing-us-15-140000223.html
How do they raise 100 million (4x their current market cap) on the open market? I don't see how that's feasible...
Seriously? I can't belive they'd sit on it only because it didn't pass. I bet we may see it AM tomorrow - just a guess on my part though.
Bourbon went last year. He might have been too disgusted to go again this year.
Still waiting on the filing that shows the proxy vote outcome. I’m sure everything passed but I would like to see how close it was..
Oh - good to know! Thanks for that clarity. Always appreciate the insights.
I wasn't suggesting they [Amgen] get involved in developing a new CPI. I was saying that they could very easily license one from another drug company with an existing CPI as they've done before with other drugs in their pipeline...
Sure its a possibility, but why would they ever do that? Advaxis would be the one wanting the CPI added as much as Amgen, just look at what they're doing with HOT now?
Not to mention Advaxis was in no position to make any demands. If anything you can argue that whatever happened backfired. Until Neo gets another partner it's ADXS and its shareholders that get slammed.
Can't Amgen just license a CPI like they do for their other drugs? I've never understood this point...
Exactly. It's been talk for years now. It's time for Advaxis to convince big money to buy and show that they're not going to just piss it away 6 months down the line.
They need cash now and the cash overhang will stay until they can secure a reasonable deal with BP for a piece of their science. Are they even capable is the question...
How about a decent cash deal out of Princeton that would mitigate another disastrous dilution? That would shut up most people here I’d say.
Why would they even care if they were reversed? The warrants aren’t even tradeable. The real crime is that they’re protected from dilution. That’s the real problem.
Who cares if their exercise price goes from $1.50 to $15 per warrant, it’s peanuts. Again, they can’t be diluted! that’s the part to care about...
I agree with you that Ken has done a heck of a lot more for cutting costs than anyone prior has done and could have used him years ago. I have to think that HOT/NEO can be partnered sooner rather than later. I just don't know what kind of cash they'll be able to get so massive dilution may be inevitable no matter what...
Aduro just signed another deal with Lily after being dropped by JandJ. That got them only 12 million up front w/600+ million in milestones (similar to our NEO deal). Not that this is comparable, but it makes me nervous.