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Wow, unchanged with less than 800,000 shares traded -- the excitement generated by the new script numbers is nearly overwhelming, huh?
The only interesting trade of the day was the 80,000 shares at 10:30 that knocked it down to 1.57 -- probably Mannkind milking the ATM cow again.
"So much for those ADA presentations stimulating NEW SCRIPT NUMBERS:
Nrx = 264
Refills = 291
Trx = 555
Revenues = 780,000
LAST WEEK:
Nrx = 251
Refills = 211
Trx = 462
Revenues = 655,000
Now BEAR in MIND that Nrx = 251 was so LOW because the FOURTH of JULY right in the MIDDLE of the week. Yet NOW even with a FULL WEEK three weeks after those ADA presentations, Nrx increased a whopping THIRTEEN!
NOT to MENTION they started running TV COMMERCIALS several WEEKS ago NATIONWIDE!"
Almost 11 am and a measly 137,000 shares traded. MNKD seriously needs to hire some more boiler rooms.
Shoot, analysts and institutions gave up on MNKD's earnings reports years ago. Nowadays, no one except Spencer Osborne pays any attention.
No, it's Apple -- if you don't believe me just go ask on proboards MNKD forum.
What partnerships? You mean like Cipla -- one of the biggest pharmas in India and all they were willing to part with was 2 million bucks to sell afrezza in India? You can see what a big impression that made on the demand for MNKD stock.
Unfortunately for MNKD shareholders, that's all they ever get to do -- wait.
Did anyone notice that after noon, there appeared to be less than 125,000 shares traded? Don't tell me Mannkind can't even afford to run a boiler room full time.
No. no surprise -- bigger losses and many more shares -- the usual.
"Consider, for example, that the bulls seem to have ignored that, apparently, BOTH the ADA meeting presentations AND the "institutional investor and analyst meeting" -- which Mannkind shareholders hosted at the ritzy New York hotel complete with meal -- appear to have been complete DUDS.
SINCE that meeting just 3 weeks ago, MNKD's stock price has dropped almost 20%. Think maybe there's a HINT in there about what the medical and investment communities think of Mannkind and its merchandise?"
Seriously? The quarter ended June 30; the 10-Q will be out in about 3 more weeks.
It's no sign at all since Deerfield has reported 5% holdings after every loan modification and then sold the shares almost immediately.
Greg Pahel appears to be a bit unhappy this am:
Looking good MannKind Corp., another 20 million off the market cap this week looks very good. Where is all the pumpers/bag holders this morning? I am one empty headed bag holder myself. Thank you MannKind for nothing
— Gregory (@GregoryJoniece) July 18, 2018
Gee, I better go and buy some gas -- don't want to run dry when I need to back up the truck.
Well, I came close -- closed right at $1.58.
MNKD never bodes well no matter how it closes.
250,000 shares a few minutes ago just pushed it off the cliff -- now $1.59
Volume so pathetic it wouldn't surprise me to see it drop below $1.58 by the close.
Just 62,000 shares in the first half hour? Are the boiler rooms closed today?
Maybe Deerfield at work -- from proboards devotee "sayhey" who alleges:
"It looks like significant shorting today
07-16-2018 as reported by FINRA
shorted trades 984,220
total volume 1,258,227
short percent 78.22%"
On the other hand, perhaps that's a hedge fund doing some of its "dirty work" ahead of accepting whatever convertible PIPE that Mannkind is getting ready to offer.
We should know before the end of the month.
To be fair, "sayhey" is near totally unreliable, but for today he at least appears close:
"20180716|MNKD|823455[sold short]...1005961[total volume]"
Referring to the the upcoming requirement for MNKD to have 20 million in cash by the end of the quarter, Spencer Osborne observes:
"As things look, they are about 9 million dolls shy of being in compliance. It is my belief that they were already tapping the facility in Q2. Think about it this way.
Average volume on the stock is 2 million shares. Let's assign 10%. This means that the company could sell 200,000 shares a day with the ATM. That would raise about $300,000 a day. It would take 30 trading days to get $9,000,000 dollars with dilution of 6 million shares. Tapping the facility daily would really saddle the stock price, so it would likely take 2 or 3 times longer to raise that money.
Can it be done? Yes. Is it ideal? No."
Wouldn't surprise me the ATM was the source of the 300,000 shares that gutted the stock price at about 9:50 am.
Whatever happened to treprostinil-technosphere? Bulls were hooting and hollering after the phase 1 results were announced 6 weeks ago.
Since then -- nada. Maybe they're waiting for the massive secondary to bring it up again.
Such prescient analysis:
https://investorplace.com/2018/02/mnkd-stock-any-circumstances/
"But the reality of Afrezza has never matched its promise, and investors started abandoning ship long before Sanofi did. Once Sanofi joined them, it was essentially a death knell for the company, and investors haven’t returned.
They won’t be coming back anytime soon. Don’t get cute by buying MNKD stock thinking it has finally bottomed and has nowhere to go but up. Do something Sanofi should have done: stay away."
$1.61??? I hope those who got shares at $1.73 are still happy.
I suspect the upcoming massive dilution will "dwarf all" in so many ways.
Notice that he's only referring to afrezza sales while under Mannkind control -- Sanofi did an infinitely better job of selling afrezza, humuliating all of Mannkind's efforts.
Mannkind has yet to come close to Sanofi's best numbers despite everything Mannkind has done in the over two years since they took back control.
Yes, recall that Sanofi started reporting January 30, 2015:
Nrx = 14 Refills = 0 Trx = 14
Nrx climbed steadily to peak on October 23:
Nrx = 421 Refills = 206 Trx = 627
At that point, Sanofi decided afrezza would never succeed and handed responsibility for sales to Quintiles(now IQVIA). Nevertheless, refills continued to climb to peak on January 1, 2016:
Nrx = 216 Refills = 300 Trx = 516
So in just nine months, Sanofi produced an increase in new scripts from near zero to over 400 and in less than 12 months produced refills = 300.
When Mannkind officially took over in April of 2016:
Nrx = 125 Refills = 230 Trx = 355
The BEST numbers from Mannkind were July 6 of this year:
Nrx = 293 Refills = 268 Trx = 561
Not only have nrx still not reached anywhere near the 421 Sanofi reached in nine months, but it's taken MNKD over two years just to add 270 new scripts a week.
Now bear in mind that is despite the benefit of the foundation provided by Sanofi and despite afrezza having:
1. been on the market now a grand total of 42 months
2. had three separate sales teams trying to push it
3. been on featured in multiple news broadcasts on multiple stations
4. had magazine ads including the now infamous TIME magazine ads
5. been advertised on a reality TV show as well as in "select" markets where, ostensibly, afrezza scripts were strongest
6. been featured on the Damon Diabetes Network
7. been presented at four ADA meetings and multiple JDRF shows
8. had CME written for it that we know at least 1,000 endos and 2,000 PCPs completed
9. had afrezziacs tweeting 24/7 -- generating 10.5 MILLION twitter "impressions" from May 2015-May 2016 alone!
10. had its own clinic -- VDEX -- pushing it
11. had three separate launches
12. gotten its label changed
13. had at least a dozen abstracts, papers and articles written about it in scientific/technical publications
14. advertised in programs of major league baseball games
15. advertised by handing out cell phone holders a hockey game
16. been pushed on various social media
17. had "Mannkindcares" helping patients get prior authorization
...etc, etc, etc...yet it still can't even vaguely achieve what Sanofi did. What little they have accomplished has been mostly by manipulating NDCs and raising prices on the product to absurd levels.
But far more important though are those refill numbers. Those are independent of pretty much anything anyone does. If a patient likes the drug, they go back for seconds.
Yet not only has Mannkind not reached the 300 refills that Sanofi achieved, the refills are near unchanged since Mannkind took over -- 230 versus 268.
If people don't refill, then the nrx numbers are totally meaningless -- who cares what nrx reaches if practically none of them ever come back for a refill?
You do realize that in the nine months that Sanofi actually put effort into selling afrezza, they far outperformed anything that Mannkind has done since -- both in Nrx and refills -- don't you?
And to the best of my knowledge, Mannkind has done nothing for the spirometry issue beyond offering to lend physicians -- who must call request one -- a spirometer that can be bought for $50 on Amazon. Do you really think has had an impact?
And titration? What have they changed? The dosing instructions are the same as when first launched. There is no additional information about proper titration that I can find.
So far, Spencer has been right a vast majority of the time in terms of predicting sales, losses, debt adjustments, etc. Pardon me if I continue to listen to him.
Spencer Osborne's analysis:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4187140-mannkind-negotiates-debt-deerfield-issues-shares-process
"The front and center observation when one assesses cash is that the company needs an infusion prior to the end of Q3...
...MannKind needs at least $9 million in cash to cover the covenant at the end of Q3. It also needs more money to get itself to the end of 2018. Without an infusion MannKind will be out of cash by December of this year. Simply stated, the odds of an equity offering in the near term are very high. In addition, the odds are that the infusion must be about $30 million simply to get to the end of the year."
So now all the unfortunate MNKD investors get to wait for the other shoe to drop within the next 6-8 weeks.
I wonder how much of a discount MNKD will have to offer to sell 30 million dollars worth of shares? Pretty big one I bet.
Did you know that Sanofi determined that 2 out of 3 diabetics who tried afrezza turned aound and dumped it?
Did you also know that Mannkind has yet to even mention when they plan to start the safety trial that was mandated by the FDA back in 2014?
What is it they always say -- "back up the truck"?
Nice swan dive starting exactly at 10 am with $1.74 and ending twelve minutes later at $1.68 -- heavy volume as well. Can't imagine what it could possibly mean.
So they still have to cough up 3 million in cash six weeks from now? And then 3 weeks after that they have to hand over another 4.4 million to Amphastar for the insulin contract? Plus they have to have 20 million in cash by the end of the third quarter to satisfy the Deerfield requirement?
Better get that massive secondary show on the road pretty quick, huh?
Nice to know that MNKD arranged to cap the price now at $1.80 so everyone will know where to short!
No matter how you try and whitewash it the refill numbers are unbelievably horrible for a drug that has been on the market over three and a half years. Tylenol laced with arsenic would get more refills.
"NEW SCRIPT NUMBERS:
Nrx = 251
Refills = 211
Trx = 462
Revenues = 655,000
LAST WEEK:
Nrx = 293
Refills = 268
Trx = 561
Revenues = 720,000"
Last year they actually issued a 10-K the 3rd week of July. It'll be interesting to see if they produce one this year.
It wouldn't surprise me to learn that they were having problems putting together deals.
They're in the unfortunate position of running low on cash just as a 10 million dollar payment is due Deerfield on the 18th and then a 4.4 million dollar payment is due Amphastar the third week of September -- all of which puts them in a big hole come the end of the third quarter when they are supposed to have 20 million dollars cash on hand per the Deerfield agreement.
If they issue stock to satisfy Deerfield, you know you'll be looking at maybe 6-7 million shares being issued, which will put pressure on the stock -- although Deerfield shorting may be what's been weighing on it the past few weeks.
Then facing that, if you're the broker, you have to come up with some sort of PIPE to produce a substantial amount of cash before the end of the quarter. No doubt MNKD wants at least 50 million bucks. What kind of discount will they have to offer?
Two years ago, to raise 50 million, they sold 50/50 million shares/warrants at a 30% discount to the trading price. What will it be this time around?
Think about it, imagine you're a hedge fund and you've got this persistent loser of a company that is desperate for money approaching you. What would you demand?
There's an old joke where one guy takes advantage of another, but then the other guy pulls out a "hogleg" .45 and replies, "Well, have you ever sucked a mule's d_ck?" The reply is, "Uhhh, no, sir, but I always wanted to try!"
Too bad MNKD management will make sure that it's shareholders who are stuck "wanting to try."
10 million is due on the 18tht to Deerfield -- the announcement for that will likely be on Monday or Tuesday.