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gloe, cci signal,
based on cci, when will you close S&P?
and for me, i notice cci works better with S&P than Q's
SMH, view
Semi's
what i'm looking at is some similarities to the OCT-05 time frame, hugging of the lower bollinger and downward weekly stoch, ending with spikey candles. And for those watching sox, next support is 475
QQQQ
i have every reason to believe the Q's is following the SMH h/s pattern to a "ghats ass". The similarities are clear to me, only 10 days later.
yes, i have been consistent with SMH & QQQQ,
SOX
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SOX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p09657967857
SMH, prior post
S&P spikey candle
also S$P showing spikey candle,
not a spike in the middle of a trend but one at the peak of a trend...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p62678694953
gloe, S&P
my main focus has been Q's & SMH and have to say, i have been inconsistent with S&P readings ytd,
6 days ago, i thought S&P's lower trendline had broke only to get a break-out yesterday.
So, what to do?
S&P upside target is 1350, thats only 3% away, little reward for the risk, and we will not get that 3% in the next week, So i scaled back my S&P expsoure and will call today "good training"
i'm mainting the 20% exposure based on daily stoch and daily macd
S&P channel
S&P 6 days ago
GLENO34 lines this way,
that would be a bear flag, yes?
SMH, QQQQ, view
the scenarios for these 2 indexs are still the same, DOWN,
based on h/s pattern and weekly stochs
S&P charts
(1), i have a break-out based on ascending triangle and a daily macd, (2), i have resistance on the 1.5yr channel chart. But in either case S&P has hit a short term top and its time to re-test support.
position; scaled back 401k to 20%
S&P break-out
S&P channel
S&P breaking-out
target is 1350, i'll be back tonite with charts,
SMH, & Oct time frame
the downside scenario for smh is similar to OCT-05, as realated to bollingers and spikey candles, The smh weekly stoch will tell me if i am wrong.
lol and happy trading
SMH from 2005
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=D&st=2005-08-01&en=2005-12-01&id=p05855859131
QQQQ view
the Q's could prove its upside intentions in the next 1-2 days if it breaks above $42. I believe it will return to $40 after hitting the upper bollinger.
Market View, TOF
i somewhat agree with the old fool, there are other indexs breaking out or trending. Russell is up 8% for the year.
for me it means i'm focusing on the wrong index for my long trades. i still see the Q's and SMH trending down. but will now turn my attention to small caps & S&P.
i have spent too much time on SMH to dump it now, so i will keep an eye on it for the rally from $33
401k position is 40% long
POKERSAM,
brother,
i'm not siding with jim, but i did not see the sniping. what i did see, was a poster that "got over you" sorta speak, which is a very good thing, for the board.
jims postings seems focused and based on his own research, not a retaliation against the bears. He is a bull i want to compare notes with. Not like the some of green-day jokers.
Market View RSI-5play
all and CJ
i see todays action simply as a completion of the notorious RSI-5 play. We will get a residual follow up tomorrow to upper bollingers $41.85. At that point i will short the Q's. I'm not a shorty but i will put-up or shut-up.
Bulls
i will start posting bullish charts and comments if resistance breaks on the Q's daily chart $42, plus an upside weekly stoch.
Bears
i clearly see downside on SMH & QQQQ until the weekly stoch says otherwise.
S&P breaking out,
i will add 50% 401k to S&P should a full candle break-out tomorrow. thems my rules
lol and happy trading
CaribbeanJim,
since your last post, i have been i-balling HHH and BDH for possible long plays,
i do not know if SMH or QQQQ will follow suit, their weekly stochs will have to "show me" upside direction,
the question i have is; how will the nasdaq break-out with HHH QQQQ SMH at the bottom?
SMH and QQQQ targets
short-term 1-2 days
SMH first attempt to mid-bollingers
QQQQ is repeating SMH pattern from 10 days ago
SMH
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p89754963845
QQQQ
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p89754963845
AMD, SMH, QQQQ
AMD did the rubber-band thing sooner than expected, so i made only a little cash today,
QQQQ upside target is upper bollingers
SMH target is close the gap or mid-bollingers
then close all longs and add short,
break those targets and i'll have to re-assess bull case (doubt it)
POKERSAM,
nah bother,
i'm waiting for the bears to stop feeding,
then this bull (with horns) is gonna run yas thru,
why? cause the bears will be full, dumb and happy :) and can't move
omandan,
i have only 2 upside stories, Q's rsi-5 play and S&P consolidation mode,
i clearly see the downside for the techs, semis in particular,
i am well focused on smh or sox and say the only upside is a 'surprise'
PS, i mean
413 thats the bottom, index will not go any lower, then we get a no holds barred Rally,
i just do not know how big the bounce is, at 475, but i will add long at 475 if it happens this week.
AMD just got downgraded (kinda late) which i believe should spill into tomorrow. In addition; it is waaay outside its lower bollingers, So i will be looking for a BIG rubberband effect as early as $32, for sure at $30. the faster the drop the bigger bounce
$SOX target 475 and 413
Robert New (public charts) has $sox support at 475, i believe we'll get a semi bounce there, then bottom out at 413,
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936
re; Market view
agree, based on QQQQ, not a lot has changed,
market is going down til proven otherwise,
rsi-5 is the only long play with a target of $41.10
KovuLK and semi's traders
yes RSI-5 is down under, but do not be fooled by some other traders intellectuals. RSI-5 alone is not enough, it is insufficient.
the question is; what gains did $sox RSI-5 (alone) give?
lol brothers and happy trading.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SOX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p09657967857
QQQQ, weekly (chart)
you be the judge,
Downside numbers
some initial downside numbers plus 10% market corrections,
QQQQ 43.31
.38 41.04
.50 40.32
.61 39.67
10% c 38.97
SMH 40.56
.38 37.49
.50 36.56
.61 35.68
10% 36.51
$SOX 559
.38 503
.50 486
.61 470
10%
NASDAQ 2332
.38 2216
.50 2179
.61 2145
10% 2099
S&P 1297
.38 1248
.50 1232
.61 1218
10% c 1168
POSITION,
in cash, no shorts,
todays upside was a surprise to me, sentiment and view still bearish, RSI-5 play still good
Vestor_2000, COT
check, QQQQ long 38,049, short 55,822,
those are not good odds for the small long traders,
http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm
QQQQ (adding short)
at the close adding small short, cover at 41.15,
i believe todays action is a one day wonder,
if i'm wrong, its a small price to pay,
if i'm right, add a click to confidence meter.
RSI-5 traders
historical RSI-5 play worst case scenario, its why RSI-5 = 50 is a good sell
http://www.vtoreport.com/rsi.htm
early 2005
Todays orders
QQQQ (was) set at limit buy at 39.86,
futures and jobs report say maybe not,
if price goes up in the morning, i will not chase it,
hey big dummie
I do not have to answer that question, you have not been paying attention in class. So you will have to do the research your-self, see link and read.
For everyone else find the neckline and you will know
one more thing on time frame, and just a guess, i think we rally after tax season,
last post of the day,
lol and happy trades tomorrow
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10068432
RSI-5 VTO play
This is a true upside play with thousands of trader testimonials. There are many combinations to the rsi-5 play. The ones i have will stop the bleeding and have some upside. all targets are RSI-5=50 or mid bollingers.
1, Q's will rally tomorrow, target mid-bollinger, currently 41.12, thats pocket change for the risk.
2, a double or triple bottom RSI-5 (check historicals) target mid-bollinger
3, Q's slide the next 3 days and close the Nov-05 gap $39.46
What will i do? if we get price below $40 anytime tomorrow I will join yas for a 1-2 day bounce.
Market View (comment)
i will dispense with the charts, everyone following the cs-group should know where we are and where we are headed. The only thing stopping an all-out slide is the RSI-5 play, which is a formidable ally for the bulls. Every line I have is broken or getting ready to break. Yes, anything can happen to turn this around and get a rally going. But thats highly doubtful, so i will also dispense with any upside calls until the bulls return from their early spring vacation.
I will try to match the downside target of the SMH pattern with S&P support. I will use the weekly S&P chart instead of the daily to get a better gauge. I feel comfortable & confident about the downside view.
SMH has 2 ways to go, straight down or bouncing ball down. Look in your symmetrical chart pattern guides for what a H/S pattern looks like. Use the "real" example not the drawing and you will know where smh is going.
SMH...(chart)
the dragons tongue,
SMH neckline is definitely broken. price goes straight down like the chart suggests or we bounce down. See Oct time frame for scenario. redline represents lower bollinger
POKERSAM
RSI5 play is a good play (indeed)
i don't want to infringe on some-one elses stradegy,
i was just agreeing with the gents that are diving in today,
AND
i think your a stinker, the bear broke my S&P 1275 trendline today, so next support is 1250
POSITION change
sold JBHT small gain & AMD small loss
position is cash,
SMH (new low)
as we all know, semis are the leaders, currently the leader says he does not like the altitude above $36
be back tonite with charts
absolutely buy at the close,
All, northam
rsi-5 play is a great play, no one knows that better than our own nocona, and i would not have it any other way.
me, i'll go in on day 2,
RSI-5 VTO traders (recommedation)
just my opinion,
wait til day 2 to add long position, the current downside wave is strong, and your upside target is only mid-bollingers
Nothing is better than adhering to your own trading regiment, but myself, would at least let price hit lower bollingers then go in.
lol and good trading
PS, Going red
i'll let yas all know when we close in the red,
the proud papa today is SMH, this leader has one more shot at mid-bollingers (daily chart)
positiontrader, up signals
good heads up on the VTO signal, prior posts,
the narrow bands on 60 min. link you provided post #21434, i do not see the 60 min,
1, do you have charts on your up signals?
2, how consistant are the signals?