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Sure. Nobody can accurately forecast where a price will go. Only make assumptions based off expected earnings, Real O/S, forward p.e., etc. But there is no magic formula to know. You have a tight public trading float, I believe about 10mil being unlocked end of week that it appears people are forgetting about. And a overall weak sector currently. Ctst scandal, FDA warnings getting Cura product removed from CVS shelves, etc.
You have a decent uptrend, followed by a down trend. A stock that is just now approaching a year of trading, which means the chart doesn’t help much either. This is a violently volatile sector, that significant news tomm could turn have this sky rocket within weeks like so many other weed stocks before it.
It seems that you don’t really have the stomach for these violent swings. Perhaps you should focus in a different sector?
Holdhigh is a quality poster. We all understand your butthurt about this being down. And we’ve all read your rambling on assumptions as to what’s going on. Nobody is trying to con anyone here. Your rampant repetitive postings every time this is red and disappearing while it’s green actually turns the “conning” finger pointing at yourself, like your trying to get people to sell for a loss.
Check it out, it may go down to 8 it may go down to 7, who knows. But what stands factual is that it won’t stay at those levels.
Nice. That’s a decent article. Although I can’t stand the motley fool haha
Incredible evening watching @reidhoffman and @toryburch discuss purposeful and thoughtful scale for long term success at the first @mastersofscale live event in Boston. This quote, among others, is right on time. pic.twitter.com/BRS74yENNq
— Kim Rivers (@rivers_kim) July 24, 2019
Rumors will be rampant right now. Short attack, J.T. Burnette, blahblahblah. Can’t wait for November and that whole trial thing to be over so people can stop using it as an excuse for share price lol. I just read “reverse split” on yahoo hahaha like come on lol
Haha hope so! I got a swing open at these prices in hopes for a nice scalp at some point in August.
Timing is never on my side, going to Thailand in September, and all I wanna do is dump my vacation capital into these crazy prices lol
I have no doubts that trulieve will have a National presence or at the least a big east coast one. But touching on your post. Florida is expected to output over 1 Billion in sales by end of 2021. Massachusetts is expected to be a large user state as well. With 2 Billion coming from just those two states combined in the next couple years, the picture begins to be drawn imo.
Trulieve manages to only hold say 45% of Florida by that time, and secures a 25% chunk in mass. That’d be 700 Million in revs (conservative). Out of just two states. And our MC sits at just 1 Billion now? I think the longs and bigger money see’s this.
Dominating states, making a name a reputation as the go too, especially in a time where easy access is new to communities... might not be a bad idea. If they find themselves holding 20+% Market share in all the states they operate, it will add up fast.
You bring up some great points.
It’s dipped lower then I expected. But I think it’s just a great buying opportunity or accumulating opportunity.
Unfortunately whenever we have times of significant downside, all the whiners come out spitting misinformation and trying to spread fear. Cycle of life on these boards lol
I have a sneaking suspicion that they are securing and building out locations that are already approved. And are going to conduct a controlled sequence of grand openings soon. But making sure they have enough product to stock the locations first. We’ll see. Would mean 3 a month from August onwards to meet 44 by year end.
Right. Say we make 250mil full year earnings. That’s a quarter billion in earnings, mostly out of 1 state. If we are still trading at a 1 Billion market cap, that would be insane lol definitely upside coming. I completely agree Holdhigh. When others are crying, I’m buying.
Btw. Massachusetts cultivation and processing facility target open date is during Q4 2019. So they can begin the opening of 3 medical and 3 recreational dispensaries during 2020.
https://www.trulieve.com/files/main/Trulieve_IR_Deck_July_2019.pdf
I think we will bounce back into the 10’s this week. I don’t think it will close for the week in the 9’s or 8’s.
Lol sure whatever you say
I’m a long holder here. So not to worried about the dips. I think the O/S is fine the way it is. Sucks in the short term for holders that aren’t here for the long game I know. But this will be just fine.
I’m loving these prices, wasn’t sure if we’d get cheapies like this again, since we are so close to earnings.
Makes sense. They put out an insane amount of product. I can recall at one point Kim touched on the return policy and how pleased she was with the return rate. In the sense of it not being very high in comparison to what they put out.
I do think they will eventually adjust it in the future, the bigger they get, the more they put out, the more people will take advantage of the system. It’s just how people are.
I think now though, they put out enough product and margins are high enough that it isn’t killing the business. Like you said, they probably just want to continue growing a massive loyal customer base. The scammers and schemers will move on with competition the moment the policy changes. The loyal/honest customers will stay around. And I’m willing to bet the loyal and honest ones out number the scammers.
RigorousGains. For sure, I’m on the same page as you with that. One reason I’m staying conservative at 54.8m for Q2. There will always be dishonest people that take advantage of the system that’s for sure.
Mgs THC
34,602,569 milligrams= 34,602 grams
Mgs CBD
589,032 milligrams= 589 grams
Ozs of Flower= 5,373.609 Oz. = 171,936grams
Rough averages from website
Concentrate average = 70$ per gram
CBD= 50$ per gram
Flower= 14$ per gram
THC = 2,422,140
CBD = 29,450
Flower = 2,407,104
4,878,694 USD per week
19,514,776 per month.
58,544,328 USD per quarter.
I’m still staying conservative at 54.8 for Q2. But I just thought it’d be fun to dissect the OMMU figures a lil bit.
Couldn’t we all hahaha
I wish Trulieve could reach those valuations hahaha. Different beast though. 2000 bucks and I’d be a multimillionaire lol
I’m with ya. Long and strong. Sure I’d love the company to be worth 3-5billion right now. But the time will come. And I’ll be here to celebrate with y’all.
Florida OMMU figures out. First week showing flower dispensed. Trulieve leading the pack.
https://s27415.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/ommu_updates/2019/071919-OMMU-Update.pdf
I believe Monday we see a bounce off these levels back into the mid to high 10’s.
I don’t expect many shares being sold into the public float even if they went along with the unlock. I expect management to hold 51% of the O/S.
32 Million out now. 10mil or whatever beginning of 2020. Will leave another 15mil or so in July2020. The rest will likely continue to be held imo. I think as of now, once all unlocked, our public float will sit around 56.2mil.
Assuming nothing changes between now and then lol a lot changes in a year.
Lol I don’t think so. At 230mil full year and using a fully diluted O/S with all warrants from the recent raise executed. That would mean us trading at less then 10x EPS and a MC of 787mil lol. Anything is possible but I find it highly unlikely.
It’s not insider selling. Its trading at around 30-35x eps. Just spit balling assuming we made 54.8m for Q2... we are heading into Q3. The market should start to account into our price what we are making as we head into Q3 since Q1+Q2 would equal up to 99-103m.
I suspect we trade somewhere between 10.25 - 12.95 until August. August we get our Q2, some updates likely, and head into month 2 of Q3. I think the month of August is when we will start seeing 12 - 15USD again... holders are accumulating at these levels while traders scalp profits.
All my theory and opinion of course... assuming we make 54.8 Q2, that would put our expected year to date earnings at 135.8m+ by end of August. Share price will reflect.
Regarding Georgia.
Trulieve is actively lobbying there.
“when state House Speaker David Ralston appointed its former president to a marijuana study committee last year. Another business, Trulieve, hired Ralston’s son, Matthew Ralston, as one of its lobbyists.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/medical-marijuana-companies-influenced-passage-georgia-law/3VO8pNHguFw1eRs7JB1nOP/amp.html
But also, this article is a worthwhile read. Kind of breaks down Georgias developing MJ program.
“The law makes it legal to produce and distribute low-THC oils in Georgia. It does this by allowing six private companies and two state universities—the University of Georgia and Fort Valley State University—to grow marijuana and produce medical cannabis oil in Georgia. Two of the private companies will be able to grow cannabis on up to 100,000 square feet of space, and the other four will have up to 50,000 square feet—totaling to roughly 9 acres.”
https://www.atlantamagazine.com/news-culture-articles/finally-georgia-can-grow-medical-marijuana-heres-what-you-need-to-know/
Hmm maybe. Kim has stated several times that she’s not a believer in buying companies just to buy them. I believe acquisitions will be happening and deals are coming as well. I believe they will be smart, well priced deals. But I also think it’s good to keep in mind that the lower the O/S is maintained, and the higher the SP grows, results in a lot more capital being raised with fewer shares. For example.
Recent financing sold warrants exercisable at 12.96USD. Assuming they did the rest of their raise at 15USD. That’s only 12million shares! Add exercised warrants and that’s 250million dollars raised and only adding 13,740,000 shares.
If Trulieve bought a company for 1 Billion in an all stock deal at 15USD. That’s roughly 66,700,000 shares. Shoot. Let’s add the 13.74 Million shares.
1.25 Billion dollars and our O/S would only sit at around 190 Million. We have a lot of power in our stock through our strong earnings, profitability, and low O/S. A lot of leverage.
One of many reasons why I love this company.
I know you know this as well. But I’m just putting it out there.
Oh I agree. I think Trulieve knows their worth. I mean come on. In a couple years we could be pulling 1+ Billion a year, and profitable. Trulieve knows this, so one can imagine they take that and think “where could we be in 10 years?”
I don’t see Trulieve selling for cheap, if they even sell at all. 10 Billion MC though? Boy does that sound good to me hahaha.
Pumping “revenue” by buying companies and presenting “pro forma” revenue figures is nice and all. But how much of that is profitable?
Also, I believe they have a big share unlock in October. And December loves being red. Might be worth a buy in Jan or during a dump in Dec. But I’m sticking with undervalued by MC, profitable companies, with low floats for the most part.
Some chatter around about “What if” Trulieve were to go private, after bringing peter to the board. Since he does specialize in the privatization of public companies as well.
I don’t think that’s on the table. I’d prefer they stay public since I personally am a long holder and believe they will realize much higher value over the next couple years. But IF they went private, the good news would be it would likely be for 25+ a share.
My thoughts as well
One of these days it’ll click from seeing the other MSO acquisition and mergers that Trulieve will be a low float leader in the space with cash to keep it low for big boy acquisitions. And people will be rushing to buy for a number of reasons. But in anticipation of a large partnership/merger or acquisition in mind. Can’t wait to see this take off.
Curaleaf is getting a lot of press. And doing awesome today. I may be wrong, but I have a feeling it will pull back hard once the FOMO wears off.
A whole lot more then producing a 4-6 dollar product goes into a business that dominates Florida’s market share lol the costs of running an efficient and effective business are not cheap. I think time will tell and show, that Trulieve isn’t worried about it, even if they went rec. they know what they are doing.
Massachusetts will be online in 2020. They intend for cultivation and processing to be opened in Q4
Craft grower “mom and pop” shops etc. will partner with companies like trulieve to sell product. You are certainly right. It’s been states numerous times that it’s part of trulieves strategy. Similar to sunshine cannabis.
I’m with ya on that. Going to be a super interesting Q3/4
Thanks for that. I heard some things about the SLANG conference call, but never really dug into it like I should lol so I appreciate that link summing it up.
Definitely interesting, one thing for sure is, that Trulieve doesn’t pump their stock. They show their strategy as it unfolds. So it will be exciting to see what they pull out of their sleeves. Exciting things coming down the pipe for sure.
GLTA
He has some very impressive credentials. Appears to be based out of California. One thing I really liked seeing while doing my research as well...
“Peter also has substantial experience in the representation of companies and institutional investors in secondary market transactions and tender offers involving some of the world’s leading private companies.”
Definitely interesting.
Practice Areas:
Securities & Corporate Finance (50%), Mergers & Acquisitions (30%), Business/Corporate (20%)
“Peter Healy assists clients with Mergers & Acquisitions and Business / Corporate issues. Peter Healy works as an attorney/partner at O'Melveny & Myers LLP.”
About O'melveny & Myers LLP.
AWARDS
• For the third straight year, The American Lawyer ranked O’Melveny second in the nation for associate satisfaction in its “Annual Midlevel Associates Survey.”
• For the seventh straight year, O’Melveny was named to The American Lawyer’s prestigious “A-List” of the most well-rounded firms.
• Working Mother magazine named O’Melveny one of the “Best Law Firms for Women” for the sixth consecutive year in 2018.
• Law360 honored O’Melveny with three 2018 “Practice Group of the Year” awards (Competition, Sports, and Transportation)
RECENT NEWS
Ongoing
O’Melveny is serving as lead counsel for Johnson & Johnson in more than 1,600 opioids lawsuits pending across the country—among the most important and highly publicized litigation in the nation.
June 2018
O’Melveny served as lead trial counsel to both AT&T and Time Warner in “the antitrust trial of the century,” defeating an attempt by the DOJ’s Antitrust Division to block the US$85.4 billion merger between the two companies.
Sources
https://www.vault.com/company-profiles/law/omelveny-myers-llp
https://www.omm.com/professionals/peter-t-healy/
https://profiles.superlawyers.com/california-northern/san-francisco/lawyer/peter-t-healy/5ac7d1cb-c8fb-4a2b-af0e-cb368522c2ef.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/person/3806866
I don’t doubt it. I know they will experience competition and don’t expect them to hold 60+% market share forever. But it speaks volumes that they have managed to hold it so long.
Surterra passed Curaleaf to take the 2nd place slot. But seems to have become stagnant at 8 Million mgs while Trulieve has pushed to 40million. Trulieve definitely not sweating the ramp up in competition.