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NO DEALING DESK for FXCM
I just switched today ... I guess it should be like the spreads at OANDA. They widen during off hours and economic events. With a 2pip spread on the EUR/USD and 200:1 you cannot go wrong! OANDA offers 50:1 leverage with a 1.5 pip spread. I consider the .5 pip extra the FXCM charges as interest for the short term loan they give me (200 as opposed to 50 leverage)
http://www.fxcm.com/spreads-and-margins-no-dealing-desk.jsp
Ok I deserve that. But i am betting it will not go over 1.2520 for the time being. Give the man a bone why don't ya!
A Diabolical Story
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/kleinman/2006/1211.html
Ataglance ... you would be the one that went crying in the office after losing the 50 grand in a week right?
muhahaha!
Doom and Gloom for the US economy
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vrdrMyG1GzZk.asf
My wheels will look better for 4000! I can make them much more rubbery and rounder!
MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE BELIEFS AND BEHAVIOR OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADERS
http://www.georgetown.edu/faculty/evansm1/New%20Micro/chinn.pdf
Very interesting!
Enjoy!
I guess you have walked down the gold,oil.dollar corridor before lol! Thanks for the long answer to my question ... which is a resounding no!
lol!
Great thanks! I wonder if there would be a correlation between oil, gold, silver, stock market. I am starting to see things more and more logically as I go along.
I see it like this :
People have money on any given day and want to either buy some more of whatever or transfer from say gold to oil or stocks on any given day.
The Arabs and their petro dollars are either gonna buy commodities , stocks or bonds on any given day. I know that it is simplistic but if you also correlation that data with technical analysis (50, 100, 100 EMA pointing UP OR DOWN) you have a much greater chance of being right. (price action is king and all other indicators are ignored)
Would be worth a shot to look if it is not too much trouble.
Thanks!
The Nikkei is getting clobered tonight down 375 to 16862. This got me thinking. This is my question : If the Nikki goes down does the European and the the US stock market follow? I know that when the Japanese stock market starts going down you can bet your butt that the the others follow suit in the long term.
Does this fact apply to DAILY fluctuations also? Like say tomorrow morning the USD will go down cause the US stock market is gonna go gown?
Looking forward to an answer preferably before 8:30am LOL!
Thanks!
Ultimatepick
Microtrading the 1 minute chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?t=10860
For all you GBP lovers out there.
"We succeed in proportion to the amount of energy and enterprise we use in going after results"
Richard D. Wyckoff
Your brain must be on fire by this time of night! Good for you! I am a stubborn man myself. Will not rest till I master this forex thing as long as it takes.
Contigency plans are a good thing to have. Uh dude ... you can go to sleep now LOL! I had my company Christmas party and I am still wired ... watching the movie FLYBOYS and wishing it can lull me to sleep. All this WWI dogfighting is not helping
Give the man his data before he goes on a frackin rampage!
Run to the hills!
Some other thing that is the MOST IMPORTANT that you will ever now. I learned this 2 days ago and backtested with incredible results. Look at 3am Eastern (London open), 11-12am (London close), 9 pm ET Hong Kong open. It is at these times that reversals happen and we have no excuse to NOT make 20 pips a day. Players enter or leave the markets with different opinions on where the currency pair is gonna go.
AT 3 am ET the London dudes come in and of course they have a different opinion on what is goin on and make their move. Keep an eye on the indicators and candlestick formations on the 15 min and 1 hour charts.
At 11 am ET the Londoners take profit. In last Fridays Non farm payrolls you can see the EUR/USD went up at 11 am ish because these dudes were cashing in their shorts. Completely logical and you can always make your 20 or so pips after a big move .. easy money.
At 9 pm ET Hong Kong comes into play and of course the asians often have a completely different view on the price action they see. This may sound crazy but the Asian culture and the western culture may be presented with the same data but often times they see different things and therefore take the pair you are trading the other way. Keep an eye on the indicators and often you can get a clean trade.
These are the most important times but keep your eye for the open and close of the various markets around the world.
Good luck!
Ultimatepick
I know Oanda widens their spread for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD to 10 pips and you can trade over the weekend.
Possible bottom on GBP/USD. It might go down another hundred pips before it reverses or it can go past 1.9170ish and continue the downtrend before the Thankgiving surprise. Wow! a 700 pip trip up and down in a month .. wish I had that crystal ball!
Remember GBP/USD has a tendancy to overshoot trendlines (false breaks). Maybe it should stop using those antilock brakes!
My view on all this mess. Battle royal everywhere!
Tomorrow pending ... I am long on the EUR at 1.3030 and GBP 1.9340.
May the force be with me.
Good luck dudes!
US ISM Services Hints at Stronger Employment Report
Thursday, 04 January 2007 14:10:22 GMT
Written by David Rodriguez, Currency Analyst
Actual: 57.0
Consensus: 57.1
Previous: 58.9
US ISM Services fell almost squarely in line with expectations, as a dip in New Orders pushed the headline index off of November's 6-month highs. In a clear break from yesterday's Manufacturing report, a slowdown in demand for services pushed the New Orders index three points lower to 54.4, forcing the Backlog of Orders below the neutral 50.0 mark for the first time since August. On a much brighter note, however, the Employment index jumped 1.7 points to 53.3 on the month, falling just 0.3 points short of the previous September Q4 high of 53.6. Given its solid correlation with subsequent Non Farm Payrolls reports, the ISM Services Employment index certainly hints at the fact that the ADP Employment Change may have overstated risks to the labor market through the final month of 2006. Only time will tell whether the ADP figures or ISM Services Employment number proves a more accurate predictor of Non Farm Payrolls changes.
Did any of you check the correlation with the Employment index?
With dealbook you get all of em .. including the m0-m3
USDCHF Provides Conflicting Signals
Wednesday, 03 January 2007 20:22:53 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst
The higher and lower time frames of USDCHF price action offer an inconsistent read for the bulls and bears. Initially, on the daily time frame, a bullish signal was tripped when the session's rally pulled the pair through a descending trendline (beginning on October 13th) that recently stood at 1.2238. Traditionally a close above trendline like this (with five previous touches of confirmation) would send the bullish position traders in. However, a few technicals are in the way. On the same time frame, the 1.23 figure has acted as a flipping support/resistance level since September. What's more, a 50% fib of the big 1.1285-1.3288 bull falls at 1.2287. Refining the picture, the four-hour chart reveals a 1.2272 - 1.2110 range, which has yet to find a close outside of the band since December 14. Also, a 61.8% fib of the 1.2541-1.1880 move offers confluence with previously mentioned fib at 1.2288. This mixture of technicals could lead to interesting trading conditions should one side of the trade build enough momentum to encourage position flipping.
In order to get the TOTAL picture of the money supply you absolutely need the M3 which is no longer available since March 23, 2006
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply
M3: M2 + all other CDs, deposits of eurodollars and repurchase agreements.
Also see this interesting article:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/11/money_supply_an.html
Repurchase agreements (RPs or Repos) are not known value anymore!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Repurchase_agreement
The band of crooks that the government is uses REPOS to create money out of thin air and thus diluting the money supply.
Sadly you will have a very important UNKNOWN variable in your formula that will basically make it worthless.
I will say it again! Bunch of fracking crooks!
"The Federal Reserve creates credit through its open market operations like REPOS and coupon passes. If the Fed wants to inject liquidity (credit) into the system, they simply call up large broker dealers and buy some of their bonds with credit they create out of thin air (this expands their balance sheet). The dealer then passes this credit on to "the market" by making loans to mortgage companies or margin accounts or whatever. Because each layer of lender is only required to keep marginal capital on hand, a $1 billion REPO done by the Fed eventually creates as much as $100 billion in new credit to the consumer.
"That credit creates the liquidity for additional consumption in the U.S., but these days we are buying our stuff from China (other countries too but we will just say China to make it easy). When a Chinese company receives dollars in trade, this normally would drive up U.S. interest rates: the company goes to the central bank of China to exchange Yuan for dollars; the central bank of China would normally sell those dollars into the currency market for Yuan thus driving up U.S. interest rates. But in our world of today these dollars are being sterilized: the central bank of China prints the Yuan to give to the company and takes the dollars and buys U.S. securities.
"It is not the excess savings of Chinese investors that are buying U.S. securities. It is central banks creating credit themselves to buy those securities. The tick data that measure foreign inflows of money does not distinguish between private investors and central banks going through brokers to buy U.S. securities. We believe that as much as 90% of foreign money buying U.S. securities (not just Treasury bonds, but corporate bonds, mortgages, and yes, stocks) is not private investment, but central banks.
"In order for other central banks like China's to print the Yuan necessary, they too must create credit. Public debt in Asian countries is expanding as a result and creating worries: this is why Thailand came out essentially raising margin requirements to reduce speculation that is occurring as a result. Notice how they were quickly slapped down by their trading partners who do not want to rock the boat at this time.
"This situation is very unstable in the long run. The Federal Reserves' balance sheet this year alone has expanded by $30 billion in this way and created $3.5 trillion of new credit in the U.S. Public debt around the world is growing exponentially and total debt in the U.S. now stands at nearly 3.6 times GDP (1929 was 2.8 times).
Money supply ? You will not be able to get that information for the USD. They stopped releasing it remember?
A nice little refresher course on Chart Patterns
http://www.chartpatterns.com/
Remember : ‘repetition is the mother of skill’
World trading hours map
http://www.forexmini.com/images/tradinghours.gif
5, 8, 55, 200 EMA
20 period bolinger bands
Pivot points calculated at 0 GMT
I started a thread a couple of days ago about what is the best time to calculate pivot points. Some people do it at 5pm ET (21 GMT) some do it at midnight ET (5 GMT) and some do it at 7pm ET (0 GMT). If you wanna trade the asian session then calculate pivots at 5PM ET. This dude does it at midnight ET.
http://www.forexmentor.com/video/pivot-overview.html
PS I ordered his course yesterday. Gonna tell you guys how good it is. The more I am getting into Forex the more I realise that I do not know shit about Forex (thus my signature).
I am VERY VERY interested in Mister Lava's style of trading. Ultimately I want to trade like he does. But I am still green ... been only doing this since april of last year.
Baby steps Mister Lava ... baby steps ... until I become like you and Elder. I am very happy to have you guys on this board. And I bet you guys are gonna learn some stuff from US in the near furure!
To our success!!
Ultimatepick
How can you REALLY know what the final outcome of the news is going to be? The price action the day (week) before tells you if the news will be good or bad? Or do you base your decisions on overextended moves like we had yesterday at the open. Fracking GBP went up over 100 pips on no news. I guess you have seen it before and recognised the pattern right?
I truly beleive your methods are for real. You have proven that. You have good kung fu ... I just wanna get me some of what you have
Thanks!
PS. The only think I can offer you is a date with my sister. Oh wait .... she is kinda taken! Damn man .. I have nothing to offer you.
Check out the trade for ISM Manufacturing today.
FOREX Training | FOREX Trading - January 3, 2007
January 03, 2007, 11:28 AM
http://www.youtube.com/fxbootcamp
It was a smooth ride down! I bought both also at the bottom. Will cover EUR at 1.3210 and GBP at 1.9580 (pivot points for the coming session). ISM non manufacturing should be kick ass tomorrow. Eventually the EUR should find a bottom at 1.2950 where the whole world will buy it back up.
Guys do not do what I do .. I am usually wrong LOL!
WOW! what a correction today! Don't mess with the US! It figures! GBP had no business gaping up like that yesterday! Serves it right! LOL! Hope you guys made money on that move.
I had a feeling that the ISM manufacturing was gonna be good. With the low dollar all last month and christmas the world wanted to buy some american made goods!
Good call Mister Lava. Fundamentals rule the land!
Happy new year dudes! May 2007 bring you big $$$ in Forex.
http://www.glumbert.com/media/roleplay
John Succo, a hedge fund manager, addressed a letter to the New York Times, explaining:
"The Federal Reserve creates credit through its open market operations like REPOS and coupon passes. If the Fed wants to inject liquidity (credit) into the system, they simply call up large broker dealers and buy some of their bonds with credit they create out of thin air (this expands their balance sheet). The dealer then passes this credit on to "the market" by making loans to mortgage companies or margin accounts or whatever. Because each layer of lender is only required to keep marginal capital on hand, a $1 billion REPO done by the Fed eventually creates as much as $100 billion in new credit to the consumer.
"That credit creates the liquidity for additional consumption in the U.S., but these days we are buying our stuff from China (other countries too but we will just say China to make it easy). When a Chinese company receives dollars in trade, this normally would drive up U.S. interest rates: the company goes to the central bank of China to exchange Yuan for dollars; the central bank of China would normally sell those dollars into the currency market for Yuan thus driving up U.S. interest rates. But in our world of today these dollars are being sterilized: the central bank of China prints the Yuan to give to the company and takes the dollars and buys U.S. securities.
"It is not the excess savings of Chinese investors that are buying U.S. securities. It is central banks creating credit themselves to buy those securities. The tick data that measure foreign inflows of money does not distinguish between private investors and central banks going through brokers to buy U.S. securities. We believe that as much as 90% of foreign money buying U.S. securities (not just Treasury bonds, but corporate bonds, mortgages, and yes, stocks) is not private investment, but central banks.
"In order for other central banks like China's to print the Yuan necessary, they too must create credit. Public debt in Asian countries is expanding as a result and creating worries: this is why Thailand came out essentially raising margin requirements to reduce speculation that is occurring as a result. Notice how they were quickly slapped down by their trading partners who do not want to rock the boat at this time.
"This situation is very unstable in the long run. The Federal Reserves' balance sheet this year alone has expanded by $30 billion in this way and created $3.5 trillion of new credit in the U.S. Public debt around the world is growing exponentially and total debt in the U.S. now stands at nearly 3.6 times GDP (1929 was 2.8 times).
Can you say WWIII anybody? Fucking criminals!
Rumblings of Euro discontent.
What a bunch of fracking crybabies these french are!!! Boohoo!!!
It seems like the EURO was doomed from the start.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/jan022007.html
By Chris Laird
January 2, 2007
www.prudentsquirrel.com
I wanted to write a piece about the USD and its prospects in 07, something that is going to stay very much on the world’s financial radar.
However, I have been following recent developments in the EU regarding discontent by France and Germany over the Euro. It seems that there are more than trivial Euro related disagreements surfacing between the EU nations, and the different economic situations they each have, some prospering – like Germany – and some suffering a great deal – France and others. The Euro has strengthened a great deal in the last year, and of course this causes some serious trade competitiveness issues. For example, Airbus is having lots of trouble competing in the airline industry because the strong Euro is making them cost ineffective. I don’t know if you have been following the recent airline sales, but Boeing is cleaning Airbus’ clock.
The tension is becoming so great that there are:
Reports of Germany and France readying stocks of native (non euro) currencies – in case of – what? Those reports alone made me take a big double take, thinking of what this can mean.
French and other officials openly calling for the abandonment of the Euro in the sense of at least re attaining local central bank controls over interest rates. Presently, the ECB sets interest rates for the entire EU region. Believe it or not, there are actually Euro treaty contingencies to allow just that – retaking monetary policy control by nation. Of course, this would cause a lot of inter currency strife as nations compete with interest rate wars in the EU - supposedly having one common currency, but then having different interest rate agendas…basically such a retrograde move by the EU nations would cause a lot of turmoil, and possibly is not even manageable, but could possibly call into doubt the very viability of the Euro.
Remember, the Euro is only about 6 years old, friends….
Which leads me once again to something I have said for some time, the Euro is only 6 years old, and the EU nations are buried in social programs so badly that I envision big Euro trouble. The Europeans are worse off than the US regarding out of control social programs that break their budgets every year, and eat away at any chance of them remaining economic exporters… something France is dealing with in a big way this year.
Of course we keep hearing about the wonderful euro- and nations are all moving more foreign reserves into it… but… something is clearly not right with the Euro model.
In fact, I have big doubts as to the future of the Euro, all financial Euro aggogery aside.
I think gold bulls and people concerned about the USD would do well not to consider the Euro an automatic alternative…..
Now, Germany has had a manufacturing resurgence, is exporting successfully to China. However, this does not necessarily bode well for the Euro. Why? Because other EU nations are definitely NOT benefiting from the constraints a strong Euro is putting on them, and are losing export and general economic market share. Germany’s success will do nothing but cause lots of grief between them and the other more troubled economies….Grief between a successful Germany, the biggest economy in the EU, and other seriously unhappy EU neighbors could spell doom for the common currency.
For example, France had a 14 percent drop in car manufacturing activity in the year ended October. That is simply disastrous. Of course there are calls for a weaker Euro by France, and this is but one example, but a good one of the whole situation.
Here is a good news clip about the situation:
Euro Threatened with 2007 Meltdown, as French Economy Slumps
Peter C. Glover | Bio | 01 Jan 2007
World Politics Watch Exclusive
http://worldpoliticswatch.com/article.aspx?id=445
French Trade Minister Christine Lagarde has recently criticized the German-based European Central Bank (ECB), which, by raising interest rates six times in a year to 3.5 percent, has been instrumental in pushing up the value of the euro. During 2006, the euro rose 11 percent against the U.S. dollar and most Asian currencies, and a staggering 20 percent against the yen. Complaining about only selling one Airbus, and no satellites or ships at all, during the year, Lagarde pointedly told the ECB it needed to stop worrying about inflation and start "thinking about growth." French Premier Dominique de Villepin even called for limits on the power of the ECB, espousing the need to reassert national control over the economy. "We must clarify matters in exchange rate policy, which means taking back our sovereignty," he said. A clause in the EU's Maastricht Treaty (111-4) could allow them to do exactly that. The "get-out" clause allows EU states to set their own interest rates, effectively stripping the ECB of independent control…
Which gets me to my point – I am getting a little concerned about all this ballyhoo about the Euro being the next great currency to ultimately replace the USD. I am concerned that gold bulls and other savings oriented people are being told pretty much a one sided story about the latest and greatest – Euro. The one side we all hear is how great the Euro is, but there are serious issues developing that could deal a death blow to that currency- leaving lots of savers with euros that could drop like a stone in value… all the while these savers thought they had moved into a safe haven.
You know, the USD is toast at some point. However, whether the Euro is the natural alternative clearly remains to be seen. Not only that, but I envision a very severe global recession coming soon, (I’m not the only one, lots of very reputable economists and financial experts are also very concerned about a looming global recession) and that would just immeasurably increase the fracturing pressure on the Euro – not the other way around.
In fact, even though the Euro is gaining lots of ground, if there is a big fracas in the EU over the Euro, and interest rates, I can easily see the Euro dropping like a stone, and losing all the credibility it gained in its short 6 year lifespan. Basically, the Euro has to prove itself for a good amount of time, and this has yet to finish (to say the least), and the EU nations are not exactly well known for getting along with one another economically. If a consensus were to develop that the future of the Euro is in doubt, the Euro will drop like a stone. The fact that there could be movement back to native currencies would be a death blow to the Euro, and I wouldn’t want lots of money in it.
So, even though the USD is in very serious trouble going into 07, I would not necessarily jump with everything into the Euro!
The Prudent Squirrel newsletter is Chris Laird’s weekly macroeconomic gold newsletter. A month or so ago, I predicted the short term gold bear market is over based on the weak USD and the continuing concern in the Mid East. That has proven to be true – holding up gold in spite of weakness in the base metals….
Stop by and have a look.
Christopher Laird
Editor-in-Chief
www.PrudentSquirrel.com
Tomorrow will see a 150 pip movement in the GBP - EUR in the next 48 hours. Of course the bigger risk is that of a correction down. It all depends on the ISM manufacturing data tomorrow.
Look here for historical values :
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/content.cfm?ItemNumber=13339&navItemNumber=12958
Capitalist, I say the movie 2 for the money yesterday (a sports betting movie) and there was this dude that did mathematical calculations for his picks. I could have sworn it was you ... oh well. You will be famous another way! lol!
But seriously, can you see any patterns in the ISM data here?
http://www.ism.ws/files/ISMReport/MfgPMIIndex06.xls
I just have this great idea of starting an economic report betting gambling house. I think I would make me some serious $$$ LOL!
“Money is too Important” to Trust with Central Bankers! - December 12, 2006
http://www.sirchartsalot.com/article.php?id=46
Sounds great! Looking forward to seeing the results!
I realised last week from all my studying (Vacation rules!) that price action is the way to go. Learn Candlestick patterns! I am convinced that Moving averages only give you the general DIRECTION of the price and NEVER will be able to tell you exactly where to enter a trade. Support and resistance levels give you the signals. So from now on I am concentrating on price action patterns. Mister Lava trades by recognising repeated patterns in the EUR and the GBP. That is the way to go. Humans are willing to pay for a particular currency a certain amount depending on the time of day, month, year. Keeping your eye out for bear and bull traps also.
More to come. I should have done this shit in the beginning. Oh well!
CHF, EUR and GBP Calendar Trading Patterns
http://www.actionforex.com/articles_library/forex_articles/chf%2c_eur_and_gbp_calendar_trading_patte...
Worth a look.
Calendar Yen Trading Patterns
http://www.actionforex.com/articles_library/forex_articles/calendar_yen_trading_patterns_20060517733...
January and July also jump out. They have both seen USD/JPY rise in six of the last seven years. The results for July, however, are fairly unexciting. The market’s average rise has only bee about 35 pips, whereas the average increase for January has been nearly 200 pips.
Ataglance, maybe you should buy the USD/JPY dude.