Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Maybe this time we'll get close enough to $5 so that the company can issue those 10M shares.
I remember someone commenting on this, thanks for refreshing my memory. I just posted something else but I'm going to clear it after reading this one.
From what I can tell it's mostly stuff we've already heard regarding biomarker potential. Maybe a little more detail than before, but it seems like something that they're still just scratching the surface and trying to make sense of. But I'm no doctor and don't spend much time looking at abstracts. In my opinion it doesn't seem like we should expect any PPS home runs to come out of this particular conference, which is disappointing but not unexpected.
Edit: That said, I don't know how often abstracts exclude 'surprises' from being sprung at or during conferences.
There's simply not enough attention given to this fact when considering anything related to DOC. I don't really know why that is, but good to see.
Howdy do, I'm still here. I'm not convinced this run up is real, but watching with bated breath like everyone else. Not much else to say.
Heh - so, just where would you put the odds of that being the case? Do get back to me with a number, I'm interested to gauge the level of delusion.
My argument is based on logic and reason and business sense, while your argument is based purely on hope. People the world over have been hoping they don't die since the beginning of time, but the fact is they all do. Hope is useless at best because it only impacts your own actions and counterproductive at worst because it blinds.
Open your eyes and realize you're repeatedly getting socked in the face by this company's actions and its unwillingness to be forthcoming with investors.
Sure, they don't just give anyone off the street a "chance". Advaxis isn't just anyone off the street, though. There's a undeniably substantial link between the two companies personnel-wise, and Advaxis has other collaborations with big names that haven't turned out disastrous yet, which bolsters their image and increases the likelihood BMY would agree.
However, the fact remains that BMY refused to risk one iota of skin outside of delivering their product, which is just about the absolute minimum participation that a party with a vested interest in said product could possibly have. That's a clear indication that they're viewing this as an extremely low-risk investment that could yield dividends for them if it pans out. It doesn't need to extend any further than that. This is a MUCH cheaper way for them to put a shot on goal than buying up a bunch of stock or covering trial costs. If it doesn't pan out, they probably wouldn't care -- let's be honest.
It seems to me that BMY has pennies to lose on this collaboration and I wouldn't trust that any expectation of efficacy even factored into the decision to partner up.
From BMY's perspective:
Step 1: Supply some free product.
Step 2: Advaxis takes on 100% of the financial risk of carrying the trial.
Step 3: Efficacious? Cool! Let's buy this out or do other stuff! Not efficacious? Oh well no harm, no foul, just lost some product that probably would've gone to waste elsewhere anyway -- better luck next time.
More likely that Advaxis approached BMY with reasoning similar to the above and simply got BMY to agree on the premise of sheer risk/reward, seeing as there is no risk for BMY at all.
The real kicker would be if Advaxis approached BMY out of desperation because AZN did leave, and we haven't been told that. We instead were fed a vague misdirection/consolation prize.
You can't call something a flaw in such a matter-of-fact way and then go on to say it's only "likely". He could've been anything from the devil to a powerless figurehead. There's an entire board back there. I don't know why you're so keen on defending the board and attacking only Dan. The board weighs in on important matters as well and had to have green-lit a lot of what Dan did, which makes them complicit in whatever you feel Dan did wrong.
If you start calling for board member resignations, I'll be the first to join you.
And quit trying to poison my pimped-out theory with your strange obsession with Dan. :(
(1) They would HAVE to do it before any catalysts in order for the plan to work. They'll use some nonsense excuse like "economic headwinds" (this appears to be setting up right now), "we won't know for sure if we can secure a partner", blah blah blah, bottom line "we're going to err on the side of caution".
(2) It would only look highlighted now because Pandora's Box is open, i.e. this theory is in your head. It would otherwise have been received as more bad news and yet another questionable timing for dilution just like last August when they put the brakes on the run.
(3) Sad but true. I can't be sure I'm right, so what am I to do -- sell at a huge loss?
Don't forget (4): Several of the company's actions over the last 2 years. The baseline doesn't make sense so why would anything else?
The whole thing reeks.
At the present rate of decay we're looking at about 4 more weeks until we're firmly in range of the ~$5 needed to get the ball rolling on the shelf-to-short share transfer of my theory.
Not a coincidence in my eyes that it lines up with waiting until these "financial" conferences.
Why so secretive about the question? If it's as good as you say, wouldn't you want to yell it from the rooftops to get the word out and instigate buying?
Which question?
I gotta tell you I'm the biggest champion of inference there is, but man, even "I didn't get an answer to a question" is probably pushing it lol.
Still interested though! What about the other questions you presented along with this "specific question"? Presumably there were others since you got a response at all?
OK, I'll bite. What'd you find? It's not like you're an insider, you don't have to hide it from us :(
Really wish the company would just say something. As absurd as it sounds, for all we know they all got kidnapped by aliens. Or they're all sitting on a beach in Tahiti laughing at us all.
I find it pretty unreal that they prefer to allow all this rampant speculation and all these conspiracy theories to float around than to just give us a good, detailed update with the truth. Speculation and conspiracy theories cause damage to reputations just like putting out limp noodle PRs does.
GUYS ARE YOU OKAY?
They got wrecked yesterday with an unusually low closing price. The massive bid-ask spread is largely to thank for that. If we were to assign a "virtual average" of sorts that removes those bid-ask spikes, it's been around 2.85-2.95 while the stock has been around 6.10 -- right where it is now.
They're so obscenely illiquid with such a large spread that I wouldn't try to draw much insight from activity there.
I.e. Up 8% on 2400 warrants; in other words, up 8% on only $7,000.
I'm not talking about fair value or market efficiency. I'm actually saying the entire concept of "fair value"/"fundamental value" itself is bogus.
This is all regardless of short interest, market engineering, etc. The only "value" a stock has is the value that somebody is willing to spend to buy it. You don't need to look any further than the anemic buy volume, even at these levels, to arrive at a rough estimate of the world's perception of the company. If perception was better, we would see more buying from parties whose perception of the company has led them to assign a value estimate higher than the price of the last trade.
Here, let me take a crack at it.
I would hardly consider a PR regarding company direction in the wake of a leaving CEO and leaving institutions "unnecessary" right now. That makes them either dumb as nails or liars by omission as usual.
What else do they consider/have they considered "unnecessary"?
Same old.
I don't buy it, net 1.5M were shorted in March first, followed by the net 1.23M covered in April and May you're seeing. Followed by net 1.34M shorted in June.
Someone's been milling their short shares near that 10M figure for years in an extremely controlled manner. Look at month-end short interest going back and you can see the pattern plain as day. I doubt this is any different than it has been for a very long time.
That would be nice, but the short interest hasn't budged and the source dates for these sales are all the way back at end of June.
I've had a contingency plan to address the time limit, so I wasn't terribly worried. But I didn't have nearly the amount of overall doubt that there wouldn't be at least ONE event allowing escape as I do now.
Even now I can't sell it. At this point it's more about how heartbreaking the aggregate value of half the holding is compared to what I put in. I think I'd be more accepting of my investment mistake if it went to $0 than if I sold out early in admission of such a mistake.
I'm strongly considering letting half my stash go right now and eating the loss, yes.
So, now that the company has given all these institutions ample time to sell out and that sellout cat is out of the bag, I'd lay odds we're about to see whatever bad news we SHOULD HAVE SEEN in relatively short order.
If that happens, are you all still going to go ahead and keep defending the board and the company? This is patently absurd.
Looks like Sectoral Asset Management also sold out for another 840k. Assuming those were also withheld votes, that leaves 3.15M-3.7M unaccounted for.
This would seem to rule out FMR as a withheld voter (assuming they're a party that would vote, I don't know). Adage ruled out also, but that's a given.
Could the sellout be tied to Dan's departure?
Can we assume 1.5M of the anti-BOD shareholder votes were Broadfin's? If we infer 500k withheld votes from other sources (per the average withheld votes on other directors), that leaves 4-4.5M from other sources. Can we narrow that down at all and infer who might also be considering selling out?
Also this website is great.
I knew that, but I didn't know they wouldn't have one iota of involvement in the trial design/regulatory process.
Not even a CC on an email to BMY? Here we are again hoping the company tells us the truth?
Yikes, no involvement from BMY except for free product? Let's say they're not allowed to skip to P3... how much damage are we looking at? It doesn't seem to be the end of the world but it does seem to be something that would drop the price given how strongly communicated this attempt to skip has been. I find it a little odd that they're essentially promising this skip by plastering it all over the website if it's such a big question mark. Why set up your shareholders for possible disappointment on something that can just come as a pleasant surprise?
I'm having more conspiratorial thoughts, but I'm going to leave it at this for now and will revisit later if that skip to P3 is rejected. You (in the general sense) can probably work it out yourself if you wanted.
Sort of. I'm not entirely sure what the underlying market mechanism is when you put in a buy/sell order there. Is it direct to market or does it "pass through" Vanguard? I'm mostly asking since you usually never lay physical eyes on the actual shares, which means they're essentially held by Vanguard and what's shown to you is just the count that you're "entitled to"/owed. Kind of like a bank account balance I guess.
Doesn't necessarily need to be just Vanguard, but I was wondering about them specifically since they're supposedly client-owned/return profits in the form of lower expenses, unlike many other big names that largely keep those profits (I think, anyway).
Ehh, it is wishful thinking I grant you that, but it's logically the "correct" thing to do. The biggest reason it's wishful thinking is simply because no individual retail holder is going to "shoot first" in such a scenario at his own expense, which is where it breaks down. Mathematically speaking, retail holds several million shares which is essentially another Adage but lacking a brain. So yes, in theory if united they could dump with the same ferocity as Adage could and it would decimate the stock, if at least temporarily.
Someone over in blockchain land should get on top of creating some kind of retail investor organization mechanism that creates an 'institution' on the fly allowing retail to easily organize and apply similar pressure to public companies while ensuring a proportional risk/reward to each participant. Now that would be a sight to see.
Edit: In thinking further about such a retail-banded doomsday scenario, we would just see that short position disappear in a hurry, so even this approach wouldn't work because it's too late. Check and mate, I suppose. Decentralized retail institutions on the blockchain, though -- I really think there's something there.
It's not so much about being told something specific. It's more about reminding them that they still have a significant retail base, which they seem to have forgotten/disregarded due to the fact that it's more difficult to organize such a disconnected group. If the retail base banded together, they could completely ruin the stock just the same as an institution could.
Difficult doesn't mean it can't be done though. Just need to start somewhere, but where? That's the question.
We need to contact them as a reasonably large group to have any remote hope of getting anywhere.
I get that, but how many times have we been strung along over the last few years by ideas like "as soon as x event happens, the price will y"? It's been at least around 8-12 times that our hopes have been dashed by either inexplicable delays or things we expected not happening at all. At some point something has to give, but it's been looking even worse as of late between the Investor Day debacle and very questionable decisions like the Kathy Ireland nonsense. You'd expect things to get better over time, not worse. Now on top of that, the company is being even LESS forthcoming than usual, when I felt their lack of communication was already outrageous -- how can anyone be remotely content with that?
All hopes rest on that EU submission, which is in the hands of the company. At this point the fewer things that are in the hands of the company, the better I feel. Sucks, but it's true.
I did, around 3.30 immediately after Dan's departure. I bought them for simple averaging down purposes following the sharp drop, for the option of a bounce play, and because I had no friggin' idea this would turn into such a fiasco with the company going dark for going on months now. For that same latter reason, I didn't commit to unloading during that bounce when it happened because it was unclear that the status quo wouldn't actually change. Roped in by hope for the last time.
I expected and am still hopeful for all this nonsense to work itself out before 10/18 or for a catalyst related spike, even if temporary, to possibly unload at a profit and switch to common stock. The vast majority of my holding will enter long term gains territory in November this year. I had chosen to stop trading it last November thinking it would give enough time to lock that long term profit in with one of the many elusive catalysts we've seemingly been waiting for for ages. I should've kept trading it, the warrants are illiquid but there's a ton of money to be made on undercutting the spread by a cent as long as you don't get caught with your pants down.
I call what I expect a pittance when compared to the final value of the company if everything pans out for it. It would still be a gain, just not the one I and many others were hoping and waiting through all the torment for. I also would never claim to be infallible and the theory is just an idea to connect the dots of the last few years together, I would not be surprised if it was wrong but I also wouldn't be surprised if it was correct.
Yeah, I copped to it in the edit. Figured someone would jump on it like you did so I made sure not to obscure that I made that edit.
Screw it it's Friday. Have a good one.
Anything but a failed "attempt" that will 100% for certain be retried next week!
Wake me up when the warrants are back at 6.