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I somehow think that today could have been a lot worse. It still could be a lot worse later, but for the moment this seems relatively good compared to what might have happened, given the overall tone of the market.
Why complain about the hold, they more or less said nothing will happen with that until the end of July, at the earliest. I'm fairly confident that news will do nothing for the share price, anyway.
What a nightmare, down 16% in 2.5 weeks.
I'll take it a step further, I think we have already seen the low in the short interest, within reason.
Why do you say ADXS is in stealth mode? There have been 5 press releases in the last 3 weeks, at least that has changed a little bit. Problem is we need money or significant clinical results, fast. It's past the point where any PR is really going to matter.
I don't follow you on either account, how is it so obvious the price is being controlled and what is the motivation? If the short interest has gone down so much already, why is it being pushed down further? How could short covering (buying) be further pushing down the price?
The 5 day and 1 month charts are suddenly not looking so good, really hope this can hold in the $1.65 range and bounce. Otherwise, any support is about to evaporate.
From what I can find it's not every filing, it's every auditor report.
Based on what Dew said a while back, the going concern evaluation is only done on an annual basis, so presumably is not an issue until early next year as part of the auditors report.
Back in March you were very convinced a buyout was imminent, let alone sooner rather than later. Were you more convinced then, or more convinced now?
The NEON IPO will not matter until ADXS solves the funding problem.
From $1.90 to $1.65 in two weeks, nothing good going on right now. Any shine from the conference call is gone.
Not so sure I see this as a complete bluff, seems they truly believe NEO and HOT are the future. If there is no good deal to be made, I believe there is a realistic chance they will drop AXAL. The savings there combined with a milestone payment and AMGN covering the costs of the NEO studies may be enough to make a big difference in the runway.
On the other hand, Ken said they are giving themselves a limited amount of time to make an AXAL deal, with an update on that process at the next quarterly update. That sounds to me like they expect something to happen in far less than a year, and in reality it needs to happen in far less time than that.
I agree with all of that, but I still don't think there's any compelling reason for AMGN to buy ADXS just to get better control of NEO, I think they already have it.
I thought you were suggesting they want to get control of NEO before someone else buys ADXS or HOT, etc.. I think as far as NEO goes, they don't have much to lose if something like a buyout happens.
Just amazing how every up move is met with a bigger down move, sooner or later. This is not manipulation, it's because the company is continually in more peril as time goes by, they need to do something in a hurry to remedy that situation.
Didn't the NEO agreement say they more or less get the whole thing if there is a change in control?
Great, broke through the low from Monday.
Notice that the results reported today by SRPT were for the first 3 patients in a phase 1/2a study. It's certainly possible that ADXS could also release results from the NEO phase 1 study, if the results are compelling enough.
There have been a series of higher lows over the last few days, including yesterday's low of 1.675. It seems like it would not be a good sign if it goes below that today.
FBG, I agree on Berlin, I just hope what he said equates to a sense of urgency to actually close an agreement, it would really be not so good to come back in two months and say he could not make an agreement and they are shutting down the AIM2CERV study. The cost savings would be good, but the overall appearance would not be good for the business.
Not sure that I would wait, if I don't think the hold is material to any future of the business, etc.. I guess I would give it a maybe.
Agree this is all speculation, but everything I have seen from the behavior of this stock based on other recent news tells me the hold being lifted will have no effect, it's not even a prerequisite. The monetary deal is the prerequisite, then other things will start to have an effect.
Not really, I understand we have a difference of opinion here, but it's certainly not a fact or guarantee that buying will increase as a result of the hold being lifted. I think the hold is a non-issue for just about everyone, and therefore will have little to no impact on anything.
I don't think buying will increase from lifting the hold.
The hold is not going to make any difference for the share price, just like the first dose of NEO made no difference. The cash problem has to be addressed for anything to matter, your placing way too much value on the hold.
Right, so why pay something like $300M now when instead they can pay $500M over 5+ years and only if it's a successful product with large sales? You haven't convinced me that they would be compelled to buy the company right now.
This announcement only mentions USDA:
https://www.veterinarypracticenews.com/aratana-therapeutics-secures-usda-conditional-license-canine-osteosarcoma-vaccine/
I believe this is done through the USDA, not the FDA.
I'd have to believe this is years of time until full approval. Almost certainly more than a year, at a minimum.
The good news so far has not mattered because it is completely overshadowed by the funding problem. When news comes out that really makes a difference it will move, and it will move because the fundamentals have changed, not because the suppression has stopped.
So you think some entity is suppressing it now, and by sheer coincidence they will stop suppressing it when the good news comes out that would make the share price go up anyway? This is my problem with the suppression theories.
Not sure that's it valid to look at the market cap vs. cash on hand, rather look at it for the enterprise value:
NEON: EV = $350M
ADRO: EV = $300M
ADXS: EV = $40M
I think the short interest being down without any concurrent change in the share price is a bad sign, now the short interest is only likely to go up, which will put further pressure on the price. The good news is clearly not enough, Bourbon is right, we need some kind of deal that results in an obviously long enough runway to get an approved product. I believe $40-50M might be enough to make a big dent, anything would help.
No, he said HOT IND filing this month, trial to start before the end of the year.
As I said before, I think there's a reasonable chance that DOC wanted to do a new offering last summer, and that's why he was fired. The BOD thought TL could make a deal and avoid the dilution, that did not happen either. Clearly TL and Ken have come to much different conclusions about the value of the various franchises. It certainly does not take 9 months to figure out the value(s) and make headcount changes, TL didn't do it during his 9 months, Ken did do it one month - that's the most logical explanation. At this point I'm more convinced that TL left absolutely nothing for Ken, Ken is working on his own plan.
FWIW, I think the plan to replace TL did not come about until late last year at the earliest. The first quarterly report under TL leadership mentioned that he was the ICEO for the foreseeable future, I think the plan changed after that.
I disagree, I think it's clear that Ken came in and had a much different approach and strategy, the headcount reduction is most likely all Ken's idea and nothing to do with TL. His announced strategy is much different than TL, he clearly changed directions.
It could simply be that they had unrealistic expectations for an AXAL partnership, now it sounds like all options are on the table. It might be acceptable to simply find a partner that takes on all the future expenses and pays back a relatively small royalty on future sales. Based on the stock reaction to cost cutting, that could be a big win for ADXS if they truly want to apply all their resources to NEO/HOT.
I think that's a really interesting point, maybe he's not playing hardball and AXAL is truly not worth the opportunity cost, based on whatever else they have going on now.
Sure it does, when there's a big sell order at 1.84.