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Evil - maybe it helps, I wish it does.
You know that we are bullish on the science & drug,
that is what counts the most.
But we also know that CYDY is reading the messages..
And I am sure they have received the message from us: Perform, finish BLA, get partnership done.
In this sense, I also like to thank LM and BL for their elaboration last weeks.
Hopefully it is for the better.
And to the CEO NP, no, it is not $5 -$10 for Combo alone as of today.
If you get an offer for $2+ for Combo - take it.
If you get an offer for $5+ for the whole company - take it.
IMHO.
Yes, it could be more worth one day - but not today.
So taking a premium today for the potential is not wrong.
May the suitor also be driving the drug to all indications properly.
GN
Scooter - Great post
Right, I am not seeking for the drama of an Elon Musk.
But surely some CEO who is able to get better financing,
has better networking to do so.
NP talking about SP is horrible, I agree.
That valuation talk should be more sublime,
i.e. market size and chances of penetration.
The rest can be done by everybody else (o8>
Science is here and even building up for a more wide range of indication.
The HIV-1 case also gained more strength regarding CCR5 occupancy knowledge, PRO 140 half life and patients infections -> dosage and no VL failure, no HIV-1 tropism change etc.
.. https://finesand.wordpress.com/2018/06/18/discussion-the-return-of-pro-140-a-ccr5-directed-mab/
.. https://finesand.wordpress.com/2018/06/13/hiv-r5-and-x4-tropism/
However, there is the bigger threshold and concern of the markets while being a very 'under the radar' company: Financing.
The pi** poor financing didn't allow company to progress quickly since at least last 1.5 years and even had their own drama with Pestell.
IMHO they have the science, but not yet all the cash to complete.
And NP is not really helping the case yelling about $5 - $20 share value (o8>
There was a good reason price went stable and even in a slow uptrend while NP was silence!
Grip - to extend my reply ..
Yes, pi** poor financing held back performance for a long time.
Sucks big time. I am one of the complainers for sure (o8>
How much has NP raised last year and this year?
What is the percentage he needs to complete BLA?
What is the likelihood he gets it or fails?
Just wanted to emphasize _the_ question.
Grip - and even bcgk - it's all about the dollars
Here: Financing to complete the BLA.
I detailed why there is a very high certainty that if BLA gets through, it will be approved: Everything negotiated with FDA and all rejections are handled before BLA completion (see safety and stability data).
Science is solid and so shall Combo data be.
BTW: According to the timeline safety data should be due any day now.
If any of this is a real concern (science etc) for anybody this late stage, they should sell or short, IMHO.
+++
Now back to the issue: Financing.
So we all should agree, if that is done, this will have the same high or low risk as any biotech right before approval while being priced very cheaply.
Problem of some other biotech stocks is that they are priced very high already.
Good, so let's calculate the chance that CYDY won't get the $10M at all.
That's the BK risk, IMHO.
Very unlikely.
A low offer has been rejected, NP said they wanted too many Warrants?
But he didn't complain over the price?
I assume he likes to have an offering as the usual, wide range of 23c - 40c?
$15M / $0.20/sh = 75M shares would be no problem at all for the valuation as shown.
And if that has been completed, the Partnership and FDA approval run would be on.
So again, only real bearish thing going is a short term price fluctuation or the unlikely case that they don't get the cash required for BLA completion.
All IMHO
Ludwig told me I was an idiot not to buy on these lows like he did.
Yes, we are also very direct to each other (o8>
@Ohm et al: Embrace everybody, even the 'negative' tones.
The real short term enemy (or friend, depending whether you sold or bought) is the one who drives the price low.
On Thursday the selling wall has started until closing.
Friday it was gone first, but then came back all the way down.
At Friday closing all was bought.
transparency of my opinion ..
- I always was ultimately long
- Also reminded people of a zero case (always with biotech), but unlikely
- Always frustrated about the financial situation
- Hence always frustrated listening to NP
- The TO fundraiser was really p*** poor
The above is the fuzzy wishy washy feeling.
Real criticism:
- Let go of Pestell
- Slow Monotherapy jump to new pivotal trial (now finally they do it)
- Lack of some data transparency (Late Mono trial - I am not alone here)
- The toxic notes
The great:
- Science, MOA and the achieved data endpoints
- Market size and penetration
- Licensing partnership
Regarding trading a position, I can assure you that non of my shares or the number of my friend's shares ever had an impact on the stock.
We never shorted.
Hope that helps.
the mentioned 'worst case valuation' has a disclaimer of course, i.e. assumes that the BLA gets completed and hence the $10M min. funding will be done.
This very latter issue is the bear case only IMHO.
We know CYDY will only mark BLA delivered when it is 100% certain to match requirements. They already had an implied CRL if you like to see it that way, see stability data.
So after BLA completion, the FDA approval is a 99.99% certainty IMHO.
The years long scientific results speak for themselves.
I don't even write about the science anymore. It's done for HIV.
Only the cancer case may needs more proof.
That for approval.
++++
Revenues and market access will just happen IMHO, as we are not talking about an expensive antibiotics nobody wants, but a drug a lot of people would prefer to use. This also is one reason for the conspiracy theory here, that .. well .. some bigger entities don't like it (o8>
So either it is NP's disability or BP causing trouble here completing funding?
It would be great if one individual or a group of investors could simply cut a deal with CYDY and provide the final funding.
Something like what Eric Sprott sometimes does to gold miner.
That alone would correct the value and company could go forward.
So the absolute zero case here would be if CYDY couldn't get the $10M.
thank you Fortuno.
Those are also only initial market penetration numbers of the first years.
Yes, our model was also meant to be for low expectations.
Referenced other analysis had similar low initial market penetration numbers. Also low - b/c the SP is so low, they all need to be not too high to look too ridiculous I guess.
And still .. $2 is a lot higher that current price.
We know how it is, ice must get broken (either way).
If CYDY would become known and perceived as a hopeful new biotech,
having one drug on sale, adding mono and reducing its discount,
then the tune could go to $10 with cancer in the backburner.
Now its still the neglected ugly, hard to raise $10M for a supposed to be $2B MCAP.
Maybe the FED poring cash into the market could help (o8>
Yes, even buying $2 - $4 for 30c is surely awesome.
Sometimes it just happens (o8>
GILD was once at 25c they said on the other board, hihi.
When you look at the sheet, a buyout now should happen at around $2B IMHO, on shares outstanding alone without neutral Warrants $5.78/sh.
But we don't know why those negotiations fell apart.
Nah, just an early morning exercise while I couldn't find bad news here.
Maybe I should buy a little more, despite my 'wait for the uptrend' pledge. Not easy (o8>
CYDY's Valuation ..
yes, it gives me a headache as well.
So even with the worst scenario, SP should be high above today's value.
Meaning, the company is still not existing and heavily suppressed
and beaten down.
Why?
All the reason we and I were complaining about.
Is it just the financing? I really doubt, as even with the most heavy dilution SP should be sky high above.
So I may squash the little financing required to complete the homerun as a reason for the situation.
Management?
We guess so.
No interest of tutes so far.
One investment offering was rejected by NP as being too low.
When will market tip it over into proper valuation is the big question.
The outside validation is still required.
With Pestell gone, it didn't went more smooth in this area.
The anticipated partnership would surely do it.
NP waiting for financing until that has been made definitive would be a good strategy.
Why couldn't NP find new investors based on the NBA was an earlier question, criticizing his efforts so far (as we know the situation).
All of this makes no real sense.
It is not like NP has to sell owls to Athens (o8>
In general the biotech M&A market was very dry last months or even years. But lately a some partnerships for other biotech companies has been announced. Maybe BP is restarting the harvesting period? Let's hope so that this drought is over.
And again, NP has to improve his networking.
Drop ProActive Investor clips and please get out more, meet with BP folks in person!
Oh well, just elaborating on this weird situation.
BTW, no bad news occurred on Friday ... guess that must do it for now (o8>
https://finesand.wordpress.com/2019/10/20/cytodyn-cydy-worst-case-valuation/
Worst Case (Fortuno) Updated Eval..
Fortuno posted his worst case scenario (copied below)
and I used it as an inspiration to update our numbers.
Thank you Fortuno.
His worst case parameter:
- P/E 10 only (I deduced by discount as well: P/E 7)
- 15% Net Profit only
- 1B OS Max Dilution on Partnership
- 2B OS Max Dilution on Going Alone
Actually the two dilution parameters were most
intriguing to me, for a comparison of the two models.
So this is a worst value exercise where CYDY only likely to get
HIV Combo 30% discount and maybe Mono 70% discount.
Cancer and GvHD are given an extreme 90% discount.
Note that the valuations should be for today with given discounts,
which are also chosen extremely high above normal discounts.
Same goes with the P/E of 10, where general P/E is 30.
Royalties for CYDY to pay have been adjusted to 10.5%,
see https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=151151129
This exercise also attempts to get a 'feeling' of the different
scenarios and may expose wrong assumptions on extreme dislocated
valuations.
Spoiler: SP should be around $2 today.
O-2: Max Dilution Going Alone 2000M shares.
O-3: Max Dilution Partnership 1000M shares.
O-4: Authorized Shares
Either we use take 'Max Dilution' (O-2 / O-3)
and all indications together as those are more progressed by the time,
or we take 'Authorized Shares' (O-4) and only Combo and maybe mono.
Going Alone:
- O-2 $1.16/sh (all indications - outlier, too low)
- O-4 $3.10/sh (Combo + Mono)
Partnership 30% on Sales (Most sensible scenario):
- O-3 $2.00/sh (all indications)
- O-4 $2.80/sh (Combo + Mono)
Partnership 50% on Sales (Very high):
- O-3 $4.20/sh (all indications)
- O-4 $5.70/sh (Combo + Mono)
PDF: https://finesand.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/cydy-03h-1.pdf
ODS: http://www.filedropper.com/cydy-03h
(LibreOffice Spreadsheet)
Link https://finesand.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/cydy-03h.p1-1.png
Link https://finesand.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/cydy-03h.p2-1.png
+++
Fortuno's post:
T0m, it is show down ..
Remember when we talked about the THERF chart pre BLA and approval and saw the good dip right before?
Must have been years ago (o8>
Also CYDY's super dips never lasted long w/o bad news.
But we know the real decision is getting closer.
Could be a consolidation triangle from here into.
This was just a volatility breeze, MMs handing over shares.
IMHO
Licensing deal or not. That is the big question.
EDIT: I would go so far that CYDY's licensing deal is THERF's FDA approval,
as CYDY's Combo approval is very highly likely a sure thing (NP: Read the manual again lol).
OK, was last post - so good night.
ohm20, possible very much so.
Ludwig had a hidden 28c bid in and he got shares at 27c!
Then it went lower to 26c and so forth.
Let's call it a successful margin stop loss raid (o8>
(never ever do that)
thank you T0m
yes, the TA pattern is typical for CYDY
observed it a lot.
1 or maybe 2 days with an extreme dip stretching the lower BB
and opening its width.
Then all of a sudden selling is gone.
Days later something positive, at least not devastating.
Support wise, don't ever trust l2 especially on the OTC here.
Rarely they real bid/ask volume is shown anyways.
But you know that.
+++
NP should do a smart event contingent financing,
depending on the deal.
So what had a little hope in it, was him saying they are not under pressure yet to sign the financing. If true (well), he plays it on the licensing deal. But really sad that he didn't have the right suitors yet.
With licensing partner it should be no problem at all to raise $10M, yes - even at a premium. But that doesn't matter, anything >= 30c would go.
Enjoy your leave. Stop buys set (o8>
Yes A17, a performance contingent clause in the definite deal.
I also elaborated on this when NBA was announced, it is not that hard
to define such events.
NP might need help here indeed (o8>
But GM is helping them no?
EDIT: Ah, yes, also in the financing notes - got it.
Soon we know.
Yes, science itself is solid. I & peers also reviewed all papers.
Sure, another friend of mine is the expert here.
https://finesand.wordpress.com/2019/01/15/pro-140-related-publications/
https://finesand.wordpress.com/tag/cydy/
tons of DD ..
"Only" needs a good suitor, oh well.
KobeF - so did you stick with your strategy?
hi T0m, chart wise the lower BB got well squeezed.
May bounce back to 20dma if no seriously bad news maybe?
And on good news, the BB also opened up to widen.
Some say such lower BB squeeze is good for just that,
opening the band.
One TA aspect only.
Misui is of course right on the pure long term
investment thesis, as the diluted financials on success
have not changed and $10M would not really make a dent then.
The only bear case is if NP gets no investor really.
I posted my view how he should do it (last final offering before BLA, showing off signed deal), but heck - we will see.
We just wonder why he wasn't yet able to get proper financing done yet,
the potential bear case - assuming he showed off the NBA under NDA.
Alternatively he might wait until the NBA is a done deal.
I don't know, but tension is high. Super top or flop.
Wish the bull case all luck, want to add on the way up.
At least we are all educated here by now.
Seller is done. KUDOS.
of course, it is a seemingly broken situation
Now NP has to defend the 32c share value they put on the books.
Best he keeps his mouth shut (o8>
Hope for the longs all goes well into 2020,
I also want to buy the uptrend darn.
Last attack was on 9/23 - just for the record.
KobeF - are you part of a short attack?
Sounds like a very familiar tone (o8>
If so and when you guys are done,
maybe share with all here that they can relax.
Oh, CDEL changed minds again .2899
NITE probably a sad margin call.
bobby - I would have never thought anybody would use shorts here.
But maybe an intentional attack with shares and buying up more?
Nobody knows.
Pestell is not that kind of guy IMHO, he wanted to be reinstated.
We had a little email convo with him, but he couldn't give details
of course. So far Pestell stays put.
Takeover would be excellent for the longs of course.
My problem in such case would be I cannot buy anymore if so (o8>
+++
@bwolf: If NP is not stupid, he would want to close the licensing deal first and then raise money at a higher price. I guess that is obvious.
I know two 'ifs'.
Hard to stay disciplined here.
Ludwig got a few shares low.
now another seller .. interesting.
1.3M shares already.
I doubt it is Pestell, his shares are locked no?
Maybe some of the guys he had to share the shares?
Margin calls?
CDEL was pushing it down and is now up with the ask over 33c.
Whatever.
Waiting for financing and the deal.
Guess you bought tons of shares again Grip? (o8>
around 23 days ago I softly hinted the 20c
and Ludwig my buddy posted on YMB
long story .. down due to short attack claim, big big drama.
(Hindenburg bla, company sued them - NY court says it is OK to bash a company with unproven claims/opinions lol)
One failed payment, CARE rating down $7 plunge to $1.20'sh
Then a bit of recovery, but ER shows lower revs b/c they
cut off TV to boost Eros Now. Cash flow better though!
Little transition time to Eros Now streaming only.
Cash flow is positive.
Then little $25M loan via notes, which contain $3.59 conversion price,
but also a safety for lender: Alternative conversion after 4 month at VWAP discount.
So down again ..
Now the catalysts are aligned (see pinned DD).
Thesis: Very perfect plunge created benefiting buyers ATM,
now running the ship back up to >= $4 for top conversion price.
This b/c the actor wants shares and company healthy.
The usual steal from retail (o8>
Watched a few days and they did the plunge on the 5min mark T-Line (8ema)
now they run it up same way.
Hope that helps (o8>
EV/R and P/E very cheap, growth will kick in higher on new drivers (streaming video).
Also curious about the deal.
Last but not least CARE will upgrade this year.
one reason market is kicking MTNB down is similar,
a new offering is expected as new trials started.
Maybe or maybe not now, nobody knows yet.
Last offering March '19 but they increase AS now (Def14)
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001582554&owner=exclude&count=40&hidefilings=0
However, when that is done or otherwise funded,
a good recovery round is overdue IMHO.
(As long they don't get hit too hard)
Need to update myself on them.
is soon due, any day now.
Debt equity swap at 69c newly issued shares,
increasing equity value due to equivalent of
premium stock purchase instead of lower priced offering.
This is also Enterprise Value (EV) neutral
and hence supporting the stock.
Ludwig & I debated that today and we think
Jay will also support the higher valuation.
Of course 30c would be perfect to buy, but started a little.
Little DD Compilation (update 1)
EROS presentation q1-fy20
-- http://erosplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Q1-FY2020-v2-min.pdf
Since short seller attack and CARE rating drop in June:
- 20-F: Sarbanes oxley (SOX) compliance
- 20-F: Increased institutional holdings
- 1Q20 ER https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191008005513/en/
- Already cash flow positive with small profits in last quarter
- Forecasts to become free cash flow positive by year end
- Partnerships with OnePlus TV, WASU Media, Jio
- WASU 2019-08-19
-- https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/eros-now-announces-china-vod-distribution-deal-with-wasu-media-2019-08-19
-- https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/wasu-media-holding
- Partnership with Microsoft Azure: AI Dubbing + Seamless video platform
- 10/17 - 10/18 RIL Earnings 2Q19
- 'Laal Kaptaan' release 18th October 2019
--
it is an OK start into recovery, yes.
- first day above 8dema (t-line on daily candles)
- see all catalysts of prev posts & $4+ fair value
Ludwig is excited and me happy with it of course (o8>
ohm20, MTNB's biggest thing here is their calcium enchelated (sic?) capsule as a delivery method, supposed to contain toxins to be delivered on the spot and no harm other organs.
AFAIK one trial failed w/ fungus so and so.
Then they added their fish oil, funny. I drink fish oil daily.
KobeF, while a lot things are crystal clear in hindsight,
it might be more healthy to change the tone for a productive
conversation.
IMHO it is what it is. NP had to dilute and therefor SP adjusted to same MCAP, captain obvious.
Now that same value is around 23c or so.
One could say, NP was a gifted salesman.
He kept the science alive.
Only problem here seems to be: He couldn't yet sell the company (o8>
Yes, that is the big issue here.
I earlier posted on 10/15 regarding the
valuation of the knowledgable bad offering:
sorkin, at least you are entertaining.
BK is of course still possible, but surely not reflected by bonds movement upwards nor the more risky speculative SP.
Please elaborate more, be more creative or maybe just don't (o8>
problem: nobody held the offering, ownership down
https://whalewisdom.com/stock/adxs
So 70c buyers were probably simply dumping it or covering shorts.
Hilarious the 17M warrants @ $2.80 strike or so.
However, they do have a pipeline and 6-9 month+ covered.
Besides data, one partner shall be disclosed.
All other running trials are on their own tap to pay.
Bacteria vector .. sounds ugly somewhat.
t0m I rarely post on other boards anyways.
CYDY is just my pet project.
You also know the current financing situation perfectly,
you are professional.
You also understand the current process of financing,
the negotiations and failure thereof despite said NBA very well.
I don't consider my contributions bashing CYDY,
on the contrary - I showed the value and the risk.
Both are currently quite high IMHO.
I also hope that nobody here requires CYDY to make it for their own financial survival. Sometimes you just have to write it down, especially when you read certain sentiments.
The science has great potential and value, that's why we are here.
Only management sort of differentiates our expectations and/or risk appetite.
Now let's see how NP will shape the $10M+ offering round.
All the best.
very well said Inov
(little longer contribution, sorry for that)
It really has no meaning what we personally own of the company.
I see personal attacks everywhere and the worst, some believe some leaders.
IMHO: Just don't.
Enjoy the convo on the boards, even the bashing or pumping of a stock, best if there are more detailed discussion backed on filings, actions, financials and science.
I believe I do the latter, but yes - sometimes I went emotional and too bullish or too bearish. I am learning too.
Newrunner, FWIW and it should not matter at all,
I have reduced my holding and changed my strategy here to buy on the uptrend. Good thing is, if they would succeed, I know the value, so I would not be scared to buy at +20% or even 50c tomorrow 8o)
Newrunner, you claim you have almost or more than $1M invested in this company. Not knowing your financial situation, but that is totally up to you. You either will win big or lose big. This is a biotech stock and regardless of OTC or not, they often dilute their SH into non existence, as they have no revenue (nor profits). You and we all know that.
I regular mention this risk here, especially after last 10-Q. Deal or no deal will probably be the next trigger moment stepping up or further down.
Probability of a great Partnership Deal
After all these years waiting, we all here have identified the sad pattern of management performance. And while we all here still have one thing in common, thinking the science is great, we all scratch our heads how all of this is even possible: Not finding a partner.
So NP couldn't find financing for at least $10M under our known bad terms.
No, the terms offered were even worse!
How is that even possible?
Don't you know that NP probably offered insight into the overall financing and partnership deal?
He surely offered an NDA and disclosed this information, IMHO.
(Note: Even Paulson participants were offered an NDA - at least me.)
The rejected $10M financing offering tells us a lot.
It tells us that the suitor(s) assess the information given under the NDA is not good enough.
It tells us something about the partnership deal, IMHO.
And as usual: All IMHO.
not necessarily at all
We think it is just the very well known list of catalyst playing out within the next days and weeks.
Two movies to be released now and the rest of the pinned list,
including Apple TV Plus.
Forgot the movie: 'Roam Rome Mein'
https://twitter.com/hashtag/RoamRomeMein?src=hash
DD Compilation
1) https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=151615005
2) https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=151626438
Considering the proper valuation is more at $4.50++ the short rage we experienced can't continue forever - especially with the upcoming events.
Well, I had my 2nd good buy and just wait for either for gap close at $7.30 or alternative $4. May even just hold a good portion if the good spirits are stable.
hmm, these things you know - should not made public.
However, listening through the thing, skipping to Q&A >= 23min
Note that the combo data paper looks like to also get pushed back to CROI 2020.
1) No funding secured
Now he talks he had a BAD offer with too much Warrants & low price, didn't take it. Duh.
2) $10M (- $15M) until end of year (IMHO only)
IMHO problem could be that the BLA is early 2020
and $10M won't cut it w/o a partnership deal.
He tries to paint a calm 'no need to rush things' color on it.
Strategy: Finish HIV, then go for cancer + NASH .. etc.
Hmm, well - I personally also need to see that financing has been completed or at least set up.
Since that should be done and close November 2019 to even have a chance to complete BLA December 2019 (I think January 2020), we should 'soon' see the offerings.
And he better does the final round in one effort and not splitting it (again). I wrote about it - better make it look like 'the final round before the ship leaves the harbor'.
Waiting ...
https://www.globenewswire.com/Tracker?data=1TLas5bhija1nTZRBg16nI67RAdHzz8dO8COsuU_bVZ8Ssu12tAuji7-hkuYmjRQaVEKK_nP1FX6mqz4upvl7B7zzAnq9ovI3JY8eXJhS3HaFrXTXZxl3auQE3PL_FDyJt7lvrE3zZ28KQLdVFoRPmVt6feyFW4iGrfq0XbKwyn3Qp7fCEHlm92UrvIuUvUd
wasn't it the father in law? This story is about 1 year old already, the SH meeting in 2018 AFAIK.
So he is using this story, while well knowing CYDY themselves cannot disclose any low sample size data. Desperate?
No partnership deal and bought financing so far.
Another small raise I guess.
EOM showdown