Making Marijuana Millionaires
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Beacon Analyst increasingly bullish on SafeBanking
https://twitter.com/todd_harrison/status/1556615863821914115/photo/1
The Biz model is progressing nice with The NEW Partners,
This is gonna SHOW well later on in 2022 as the 7X Yield improvement in PA standard Farms , and the NEW Grow Rooms in #Massachusetts come online
The NEW partners are scaling , Her Highness , and Ricky Williams with HIGHSMAN etc etc .The NEW Brands are selling well
OldPal is CRUSHING it ,We have many new SKUS are coming
It’s the Model , the New Grow Rooms , and the Revenues ……..all coming together
Cash will be HIGHER , Jupiter back to Growth , and Massachusetts RECREATIONAL selling well, Ohio Ramping Up , Dispensary in Long island coming soon with Shinecock Indian tribe
Danny Moses who wrote the book (The Big Short) sits down with cannabis advocate and operator Brady Cobb and Emily Paxhia of Poseidon Investment Management and talk about the shift happening around the cannabis space (43:20), updates in the Safe Banking Act (54:28), and marijuana’s potential impact on alcohol sales (1:05:48).
Listen Safe Banking 55 min mark ,
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-price-is-wrong-with-vincent-daniel-and-porter/id1545205930?i=1000575103413
Interesting reply from a fellow on twitter to the marijuana moment posting .
https://twitter.com/safe_plus_now/status/1555217944388550658
more chatter ,,, I am not really in a rush ,, just looking for some relief to make sure im not insane for putting a fortune in pot stocks
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/booker-says-theres-republican-support-for-safe-banking-plus-marijuana-compromise/
"Apparently Sen. Booker is already working with other members to draft legislation for SAFE+ which could potentially include some/all of the following: a 280E provision, up-listing language such as the Climb Act, veterans affairs, and SBA loan language."
"Apparently Sen. Booker is already working with other members to draft legislation for SAFE+ which could potentially include some/all of the following: a 280E provision, up-listing language such as the Climb Act, veterans affairs, and SBA loan language."
— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) August 4, 2022
🇺🇸 #cannabis 🌿 pic.twitter.com/yNWVJ919wa
“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” — Paul Samuelson
— Compounding Quality (@QCompounding) July 30, 2022
With SHWZ (and Lowell) i am not relying only on current trends, profit margins/ratios , to me its not as important as understanding how the these companies will perform and create value in the years ahead. Usually stock bottoms occur around the estimate cuts. Analysts have been and currently are cutting estimates on the bigger Mso's. This volatility is our friend if you are a long-term investors. I am using it to my advantage.
None of us know for sure ,but we have an idea what SHWZ share prices will do in the short term. Outperformance is not possible without underperformance. A SHWZ Bull market aint possible without this current bear market. Multi-baggers are not possible without these exhausting down turns
“The market is most dangerous when it looks best. It is most inviting when it looks worst.” – Frank Williams (1930)
“The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell”.
- John Temple
I perceive this article as very relevant to SHWZ relationship with Lowell, We should but them !!!!!
"The time has come for the MSOs to compete for shelf space in competitive markets like CA, CO and OR. This bodes well for smaller brands in those states, which have the requisite competitive advantage and may very well be attractive acquisition targets for MSOs due to their deep domain expertise."
" Cannabis pure-play brands (e.g. Cookies, Stiiizy, Kiva) have spent years building a loyal following by partnering with influencers who understand and embody their culture. So while brands can indeed be manufactured from scratch, it is not a given that MSO brands will be perceived as authentic and embraced by savvy, experienced consumers.
https://www.cannabisbusinessexecutive.com/2022/08/the-highly-anticipated-mso-pivot-is-here-what-will-that-mean-for-cannabis-brands/
Analyst P.I. Financial On 8/3
Lowell Farms Inc. (CSE-LOWL)
Price Target: C$1.10
Price (last): C$0.29
Rating: Buy
52-week High/Low: C$1.72/C$0.25
Shares Out. (basic): 100.5M
Shares Out. (fd): 280.8M
Market Cap: C$28M
Risk: SPECULATIVE
Return: 286.0%
Cash: C$5.9M
Debt: C$47.6M
More interesting news , Big Media slowly coming around
The USA Today editorial board has reversed its past position on #cannabis and come out in support of ending #cannabisprohibition. https://t.co/JDgwsT2TRd#cannabisnews #cannabisindustry #cannabiscommunity #cannabisculture #usatoday pic.twitter.com/3kIvKAj47Q
— Studio 420 - Cannabis & Psychedelics (@420digitalweb) August 3, 2022
Perspective on Possible Custody/uplisting
random thoughts 🤔
— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) August 3, 2022
AG Merrick Garland said the DOJ would address cannabis "in the days ahead" seven weeks age.
They waiting to coordinate messaging w FinCEN?
[solving for custody likely; read-thru for up-listing w/b language / action- dependent]
🇺🇸 #cannabis 🌿 https://t.co/mNu8tTwBlM
Alan Brochstien retweeting
This dumb bull loves other dumb bulls! NOT DUMB! https://t.co/jbnHsmLJiK
— Alan Brochstein, CFA (@Invest420) August 2, 2022
This could be very relevant in regards to SafeBanking, Td Ameritrade buying Cowen
TD to buy US Investment Bank Cowen, another interesting move from a 🇨🇦Bank increasing their exposure to the 🇺🇸 market. Fwiw Cowen provides coverage and does deal work for 🇺🇸 cannabis as well. Onward https://t.co/pdU9PDpL0K
— Brady Cobb (@BCobblaw) August 2, 2022
from Beacon
As also reported by Marijuana Moment, in an interview published by NJ Spotlight on News on Friday, Senator Booker described himself as a "compromise guy". He further indicated his support for SAFE while adding that he wants to see the legislation balanced with restorative justice components.
We continue to believe that the CAOA is far too broad to clear a 50/50 Senate. The standalone version of the SAFE Banking Act has relatively strong bipartisan support, as 9 of its 43 sponsors are Republicans. While amending SAFE to obtain support from Senator Booker (and other like-minded Senators) would be a balancing act, as those changes could cost it support from Republicans, we believe there must be some urgency for Democrats to be seen getting something done on cannabis reform this session. We therefore view Senator Booker's comments positively, as they publicly indicate the conditions under which he would support SAFE. With mid-terms rapidly approaching, we continue to believe that SAFE is most likely to clear the Senate during the lame duck session immediately after mid-terms on November 8th.
SAFE Champion Calls Introduction of CAOA The Last Hurdle - During a radio interview, Rep. Ed
Perlmutter (Democrat - Colorado) described the recent introduction of the CAOA as the last hurdle to passing the far more modest SAFE Banking Act. He opined that the CAOA does not have the votes to clear the Senate, while SAFE has far stronger bipartisan support (see our prior bullet). Rep. Perlmutter is set to retire at the end of this session, and he predicted that Rep. Joyce (Republican - Ohio) would likely pick up where Perlmutter leaves off, but he reiterated his intent to get SAFE "across the finish line," according to Marijuana Moment.
Game on Mj Biz article Featuring SHWZ pg 38 - 40
https://mjbizdaily.com/digital-issues/august-2022/
In Plain Sight , awesome i am not sure what i will be wearing Probably a Columbia PFG shirt,,, too hot for anything else , shorts and flip flops for sure.. see u in a few weeks
More from Jeffries ,huge upside potential implications ..
Important development re 280e? Readers are probably aware that, due to an income tax provision around
illegal drugs called 280e, cannabis companies are not allowed to offset expenses below COGS for tax purposes. This results in effective tax rates of between 60%-80% in many instances. Californian operator, State House, challenged certain aspects of this federal tax rule back in 2018, one related to what expenses it should be allowed to allocate to COGS. This week we heard State House was successful in this COGS argument. This could now potentially pave the way for future tax relief by other operators, and providing a material boost to cashflows. More in the main body.
Insights from Jeffries Equity Research
Top line softness should persist in 20... Continuing the theme from 10 of very muted sequential sales growth, 2Q should be more of the same. On average, we forecast group 2Q sequential sales (ex TerrAscend, that we see up +52.8%) to be up just 4.2% (cons +5.3%), as competitive pricing pressures and a macro challenged consumer both weigh. These competitive pricing pressures are now being seen across most states, and are consistent with our commentary back in early March (here) when we warned the honeymoon period is over. Against this backdrop, building high-quality sustainable brands is now becoming key, and will become an increasingly important differentiator between the longer-term winner and losers. To this, expect to see lots of commentary across the names around brand building initiatives in the Q.
... with margin normalization continuing, not helped by input costs: With operational leverage less helpful vs the past, pricing pressures building (cannabis one of very few sectors not increasing prices as inflation rises), increasingly higher input costs, and spend in advance of new states turning on/ramping to scale, margins should continue to be challenged. To this, in 2Q, our estimates on margins are below consensus on all names, while mostly the same for the full year. On average, we estimate group GM's to fall -64 bps sequentially in 20 (ex TerrAscend: 20 JeffE +1,100bps after falling >1,000 bps in 1Q), and for group adj. EBITDA margins to fall -36bps (ex TerrAscend: 20 JeffE +587bps). While margin pressures could raise concerns, we argued at our sector initiation in July 2021 (here) that margins were too high anyway and should be largely ignored as these are propped up by unsustainable regulatory dynamics.
2H delivery should be much improved, however: Despite the expected muted 1H22 top line, we expect to see strong acceleration in 2H22 as new states opening up (most notably New Jersey) and ongoing consolidation both support. Even with the expected full year margin pressures, this should still see both full year sales and EBITDA average growth at strong double-digit. We think year over year delivery is increasingly where focus needs to be, with very few other sectors we are aware of that are judged on quarter over quarter sequential delivery. Further, strong double-digit sales and EBITDA growth continues to make US cannabis a stand-out sector.
Roth Capitol....
With the recent release of the CAOA (not passable), investors and politicians alike can now shift their focus towards the potential of SAFE passage later this year, likely during the lame duck period. Outside of materially improving financial conditions for cannabis operators, we believe the single most significant upside to cannabis company's shares is SAFE passage, potentially allowing U.S. plant-touching operators to list on major exchanges. We believe the ongoing lack of institutional involvement has artificially suppressed valuations among MSOS, who, on average, possess better margin structures and operate in a larger market than their Canadian counterparts. While SAFE does not necessarily allow operators to immediately uplist, we believe it encourages (arguably, "forces") regulators to update financial guidelines to protect legal cannabis states and reevaluate the exchange listing of legal operators
Chicus
Thanks for the link i already signed up and chatted with the Noble Cap team who is sponsoring the lunch,,,She even said she would set up a meeting with JD after the lunch,,,,
List of Companies funding anti Cannabis campaign
Here is the list, in case you're wondering who is bankrolling the anti-#cannabis legalization movement... pic.twitter.com/hPNOL4yS4K
— Peter Grinspoon, M.D. (@Peter_Grinspoon) July 28, 2022
This is very compelling ,, within 2 years Trillions of dollars will be pouring in to cannabis investments
https://twitter.com/CB1Cap/status/1166311950348967937/photo/1
Im on the opposite coast,,,But im def going , already signed up ,,Also if anyone else is going lets meet up
Rep Ed Permutter said “I think we’ll get it passed.” Schumer already indicated if there's not enough support for CAOA, he's willing to compromise and pass a scaled-down version of reform which we expect includes SAFE Banking legislation."
.@HedgeyeCannabis on 🇺🇸 #cannabis 🌿
— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) July 27, 2022
“I think we’ll get it passed.” Schumer already indicated if there's not enough support for CAOA, he's willing to compromise and pass a scaled-down version of reform which we expect includes SAFE Banking legislation."
-@Ed4Colorado 🇺🇸 🌿 🥇 pic.twitter.com/BYCroHQMMZ
Good Ceo's like JD know where to be well in advance
Viridian Capital
"we're confident in 2-3X+ immediate upside for US cannabis stocks is warranted on SAFE and the ensuing institutional investment"
Viridian on 🇺🇸 #Cannabis 🌿
— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) July 26, 2022
"Ascend and AYR Are Our Best Bets Amidst SAFE Discussion; Expect Near Term M&A Uptick"
"we're confident in 2-3X+ immediate upside for US cannabis stocks is warranted on SAFE and the ensuing institutional investment"
positions / advisor $AYRWF 🇺🇸 🌿 pic.twitter.com/8u7UahY2j2
Interesting , if you read the business labels on the map surrounding this locations there is an Albertsons grocery real close buy ! Good location with a Starbucks across the street etc ... It never occured to me ,( slim most likely not) but maybe one day Justin Dyes old firm buy's us up
Interesting , if you read the business labels on the map surrounding this locations there is an Albertsons grocery real close buy ! Good location with a Starbucks across the street etc ... It never occured to me ,( slim most likely not) but maybe one day Justin Dyes old firm buy's us up
This sounds doom and gloom ,,, but if you look at the opportunity for Experienced operators to benifit from decreased competition, and lower priced aquistions? just my 2 cents
https://www.cannabisbusinesstimes.com/article/midyear-corporate-cannabis-update-revenue-legislation/
This sounds doom and gloom ,,, but if you look at the opportunity for Experienced operators to benifit from decreased competition, and lower priced aquistions? just my 2 cents
https://www.cannabisbusinesstimes.com/article/midyear-corporate-cannabis-update-revenue-legislation/
more from previous post
If Congress doesn't legalize or passes only the narrower legislation, stocks could suffer, but we believe that any pullback will be brief and small. Cannabis stocks remain very oversold and deeply depressed.
https://mailchi.mp/newcannabisventures/how-cannabis-stocks-may-react-to-the-congressional-vote
We believe the CAOA is unlikely to pass, though we do understand that the Discussion by Congress could lead to the passage of certain other legislation, including possibly SAFE Banking, the MORE Act or the Capital Lending and Investment for Marijuana Businesses (CLIMB) Act, which would allow cannabis companies to list on major stock exchanges in the U.S.
The price has bottomed already , If memory serves me according to an interview with Ceo Justin Dye a week or 2 ago