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USD/MXN: Short Review & Forecast
The USD has strengthened against most currencies based on positive economic news and increased probability for a new rate hike this year.
The U.S. dollar strengthened against most currencies this week. At the same time, the tragic event in Las Vegas wasn't noticed by investors amid positive economic news, which increases the probability of a rate hike in the United States. FED Chairman Janet Yellen also said that the Central Bank is not going to refuse one more rate hike which was scheduled this year. In addition, the dollar received support from the tax reform which was promised personally by Donald Trump. Also, the USD has been supported given the probability of a change of the head of the Federal Reserve. Analysts forecast that Kevin Warsh will be chosen as new FED Head. It's known that he is a supporter of a strong dollar and tight monetary policy. Consequently, there are perspectives for further strengthening of the dollar.
Data about the Mexican economy also pleased investors this week. The business activity index amounted to 52.8 points in September, surpassing investors' expectations. This is a record level in recent years, but the decision of the Central Bank of Mexico to keep the rate at the same level didn't support significantly the MXN compared to the strong dollar. So, the rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, although the resistance line has been gradually shifting upwards for the last several months, indicating a weakening of the current trend. However, at the moment the most optimal would be the deals on the trend, which is confirmed unanimously by the MACD and Stochastics oscillators.
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Trump`s tax reform
How does this new suggested legislation affect the US economy?
This week we chose to return our discussion to the political situation in the United States where we have another major news story: the new tax plan proposed by President Trump’s administration. This story is significant particularly because this is barely the second major piece of legislation that Trump’s office has produced. The first one was the now infamous health care bill which died a slow death in Congress, repeatedly. The failure of the administration then drove investors to doubt the stability of Trump’s mandate, which was a major contributor to the record lows of the American dollar registered up until last week. Can this new bill on taxes have the same impact? Let’s see!
First off, we need to acknowledge how important tax policy was to Trump’s presidential campaign. He had a few key issues that were the highlights of his rhetoric: immigration, repeal Obamacare, and a better tax policy, among a few that stand out the most. His attempts to curb immigration through travel bans have been met with major disapproval, his plans to repeal or replace Obamacare have failed, and now his proposal on tax policy is met with a lot of doubt before it’s even fully-defined. Trump’s previous failures managed to shake the dollar, so it is reasonable to argue that if his tax bill is a fiasco, he might hurt the American currency again.
The plan that Trump’s administration announced on Wednesday can hardly be called anything, according to experts. It contains vague outlines of the administration’s goals while it lacks clear explanations of how they propose to achieve them. The actual work on making this plan more meaningful still lies ahead and may take months, according to CNN. What we know for certain is that the plan will decrease the top income tax from 39.6 to 35%, giving a major advantage to the richest Americans. The proposal would suggests an increase of the ratio of income that is exempt from taxes, which would mean a lower tax for every individual. While this sounds great for people’s personal incomes, it would make a major dent in the budget of the United States, due to trillions of dollars of potential tax revenue not being collected.
Trump’s tax plan doesn’t provide any guidance on how the budget shortage will be compensated under such a policy. It also doesn’t prove that this new tax system won’t place a greater burden on the middle class, which Trump has stated he wants to protect. It very clearly benefits the rich, while it’s murky (at best) in terms of all other income groups in the United States.
The plan also suggests a simplification of the tax system by collapsing the current seven-step policy (where seven different income groups are taxed a different percentage, between 10% and 39.6% for the poorest and richest incomes, respectively). The new system would have just three groups: 12%, 25%, and 35%, but the income brackets for each tax rate are still unknown. It’s also interesting that some corporate taxes are proposed for the 25% rate instead of the 35%, which may cause a lot of tax fraud.
Considering how much information is missing from the proposal, it’s still very difficult to dissect it. However, Republicans themselves do not agree on many of these issues, not to mention that Democrats are not likely to support anything that cuts the taxes of the wealthy, so this piece of legislation is likely to have trouble passing through Congress – if it is ever completed.
Right now there might not be too much to this story as we still need to hear more concrete points about the tax bill. However, it’s worth it to stay tuned and watch out for further instability within the United States. They are already in the spotlight due to tensions with North Korea – any internal disorder would only worsen their economic climate and weaken the dollar.
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Charity in Thailand
This week SuperForex held a special event in Lat Krabang - one of the districts of Thailand’s capital, Bangkok. As a modern company, we appreciate the importance of Corporate Social Responsibility and aim to help people in need. Thus we have chosen the Camillian Home to support needy Thai children.
Camillian Home is a registered non-profit children’s charity. It is one of the few facilities in Thailand dedicated to caring for these children in a family atmosphere, and it aims to serve as a model in caring for vulnerable children with special needs. They work with children who are living with disabilities, some of whom have been orphaned or abandoned, and some of whom are also living with HIV/AIDS.
For such a mission we asked Jiranan Suebnuch, our representative in Thailand, to help us make those children and employees happy. She kindly agreed to help us with this initiative. Together we bought all the things Camillian Home has in its suggested items for donation.
Pleasant people from Camillian home told they will make use of all those products and young Thai children, for whom the whole event was devoted, seemed happy and spent a good time with representatives of SuperForex company.
If you have any ideas on how to help more people that really need it - feel free to contact us. We are sure that acting in socially responsible way is an essential part of modern companies’ working.
Oil Prices Recovering
Analysts feel that for the first time in two years oil prices are on their way to recovery.
Last week the prices of oil (and other commodities) suffered somewhat due to a strengthening of the American dollar caused by last week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. However, despite the noticeable decrease, the price of oil still didn’t fall to dangerous levels and remained relatively stable.
Now analysts are saying that the oil market is heading towards a stabilization, and is perhaps approaching the resolution of the oil crisis of the past two years. This year OPEC as well as non-members who are oil exporters such as Russia have managed to cut down their production dramatically, which helped alleviate the oversupply on the market for crude oil. As a result, the price of oil went up by 15% in recent months.
American crude oil is currently at around $50.51, while London brent crude oil is trading around the $56 mark. It’s worth noting that oil extraction in the United States was previously affected by a series of natural disasters that hit the North American coastlines.
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German Elections 2017
Germans will be electing a new government this Sunday - how would that affect Europe?
Recently global news have been almost monopolized by three topics: the tensions between the United States and North Korea, natural disasters striking one after another, and the recent Federal Reserve meeting and talks of monetary policy changes around the world. One could hardly tell that there is something else very important going on this week: parliamentary elections in Germany.
Why aren’t media talking about the German elections? After all, the elections in France this spring, as well as the British preliminary elections received a lot of news coverage when they were happening. The most likely explanation is that the results of the German elections are not likely to be very surprising. The current Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel still enjoys a stable level of support and is a respected global leader, so most polls indicate that her party would easily win these elections. However, it still is worth it to take a look at German politics, because anything that changes there has the potential to affect the European Union and European markets greatly.
While it is true that Merkel will probably win herself a fourth mandate as chancellor, it is important to note that more parties are expected to make the cut this time. Likely we would see six parties enter the Bundestag. Six voices pulling in different directions is bound to make things more difficult and even slow down Germany, hindering its ability to continue to act as a global political leader.
While immigration seems to be on everybody’s mind and is central to debates between candidates, the number of asylum seekers has dramatically dropped in 2017 compared to previous years. There are other issues on the table such as labour, pensions, education, and more – and they can all affect the way Germany’s economy works – and the way Germany participates in the European Union.
One of the most important things to watch out for in these elections is how the Alternative fuer Deutschland party would do. The far-right political party, often labeled as modern-day nazis, is very conservative and outspoken about its strong stance on immigration: they feel that trying to harbor Muslim refugees and integrate them into European society is a lost cause and oppose the current lax immigration policy of Germany that is championed by Merkel. So far Germany has been the leader in the refugee crisis, encouraging countries to accept and help refugees. This issue is close to the hearts of Germans, as they found themselves in a similar position during World War II – they know what it is like to be a refugee, and they also know what it feels like to be mistaken for a terrorist (or a nazi), just because of your origin. That is why Germany has always maintained that it would extend a helping hand to those in need. However, as the number of terrorist attacks around Europe increases, many people begin to fear for their safety, and other countries, such as France, have called for stricter immigration policies in order to increase safety. This brings us back to the AfD: nazis have not been in power in Germany since World War II, but over the past few years they seem to have gathered a lot of support. It is expected that they may reap as much as 10% of the vote in these elections, securing them a comfortable section of the German Parliament. This means that they would have a say in German politics, and when dissenting views clash in parliament, the stability of a country suffers, as does its ability to act (just look at how poorly the UK is handling Brexit, simply due to a lack of majority in parliament).
Overall, change is coming to Germany, even if Merkel is re-elected. And with that, change will invariably come to the eurozone as well.
GBP/EUR Technical analysis
The pair is moving within a downward trend.
At this moment the pair is trading in a down trend, slowing down near its resistance levels. We can also note that against the backdrop of strong data, the pair can quickly overcome the nearby resistance levels, as it happened after the press conference of the Bank of England, against which the pound sharply increased its quotes.
Today at 4.30 pm (GMT +3), ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak at a press conference. It is necessary to closely monitor the investor sentiment, as many feel that the euro will be pressured and our pair will continue the downward movement.
Our advice for you is to set medium goals and small stop-loss orders.
Support and resistance levels:
0.8880
0.8825
0.8780
0.8715
CAD / JPY technical analysis
At the moment, on the chart of H4, we see the return of prices in the framework of the rising channel. Drawn for 28 days.
Given the recently published positive statistics for Canada, we can assume that our upward movement will continue and at the moment we are seeing a correction and revision of the positions by bulls that decided to fix the profit.
On the daily chart, we have not yet seen the figures of absorption and the reversal pattern. But on the chart H4 appeared "shooting star", which can signal us about a possible correction. And the ability to draw a "head and shoulders" figure, with a shoulder level in the area of ??88.90.
But looking at the overall schedule and considering the overall movement, the recommendation is to look for points to enter the long position at support levels.
Support and resistance levels
87.72
88.35
88.89
89.50
90.10
90.90
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A new wave of tension
North Korea conducted a nuclear test again
This morning on September 15, Japan stated that North Korea once again conducted nuclear tests and the missile flew over the northeastern part of the country. At the same time, South Korea also conducted military exercises, firing a rocket at sea. Earlier, after the new sanctions imposed by the UN on North Korea, their leader Kim Jong-un promised to flood Japan and turn the US into "ash and darkness" and accelerated the testing of nuclear weapons.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson exerts pressure on China to preserve the oil embargo, which is quite a powerful tool of pressure. However, China can limit trade relations on an official level, but can not deter smugglers, which hamper the pressure on the Kim Jong-un regime.
This news caused a lively sale of assets and sent investors to search for a quiet harbor.
This time, the markets reacted more calmly to this news and volatility weakened much faster than the previous week.
The dollar again continues the upward movement after corrective movement relative to the Yen.
The pound is traded at the level of annual highs against the dollar and may soon begin the corrective movement, after yesterday's sharp jump. Talks about possible increase in the interest rate in the coming months for a decade sounded on the meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy. Such data was regarded positively by traders, which gave a sharp push to the British currency. And breaking through the strong resistance levels has reached new annual highs. On Friday we are expecting a fixation of profits and that the price will depart from the current values.
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AUD / CAD technical analysis
At the moment, the pair is trading in a downtrend and is between 23.6 and 0.00 Fibo levels with a daily chart.
Since recently some reliable enough data came from Canada, we see further strengthening of the Canadian currency.
The indices of RSI and Stochastic also confirm the downward movement after a small correction of 75 points.
At the moment, the pair is also under our Moving Average with a period of 28 and tends to a resistance level lying at 0.00 Fibo level (0.9655).
Tomorrow a number of important news will be released in Australia, at 2:15 (GMT +3) the speach of the Deputy Head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Debbel will take place, and at 4.30 (GMT +3) the changes in the level of employment for August will be published. This may slightly increase the volatility of our pair at the time of the news release.
By day trading, we are now seeing a downward movement, so there is an opportunity to take short positions. With take-profit and stop loss at the levels of 0.0 and 23.6 by Fibo, respectively. We also have a twice tested resistance level of 0.9690, on which it is also possible to fix profits and look for further fluctuations of the pair.
The intersection of our gliding (28) body with a candle and the subsequent fastening of the next candle by the body will highlight a possible reversal.
Support and resistance levels:
0.9655, 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9805, 0.9870, 0.9900, 09975, 1.0050
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The North Korean Crisis
Tensions continue to rise as North Korea's Independence Day looms around the corner.
One could hardly go through this week without hearing about what is shaping up to be the biggest global issue right now: North Korea. The isolated communist state came under the spotlight three weeks ago when North Korea leader Kim Jong Un announced his intention to launch an attack on Guam, a territory under the jurisdiction of the United States. What ensued was a series of threats between Trump and Kim Jong Un, which led to a tense situation on the global financial markets. The stress began to ease off last week, but on Sunday the world awoke in chaos again, as North Korea performed a successful test of a hydrogen bomb in the ocean, which resulted in an earthquake felt in neighboring South Korea and Japan.
Even though there were no casualties, this strike was quite significant. For one thing, many countries had speculated that North Korea did not have the technology to successfully mount such a destructive bomb on a missile, nor to aim it properly. Since the country lives under a self-imposed isolation from the rest of the world, their development has been hampered by a lack of exchange of technologies. It has also been very difficult for the rest of the world to evaluate the readiness and conditions for war in North Korea due to the lack of information (or, rather, the state propaganda that is broadcast instead of information, which many suspect is inaccurate). However, this strike proved that North Korea is much farther ahead in its nuclear program than previously assumed – a power on which Kim Jong Un’s regime relies. The North Korean leader has repeatedly ignored the condemnation of the United Nations regarding his nuclear weapons – and from his perspective, as someone who faces many enemies and might have to protect his position with force, it makes sense that he wants to hold on to his weapons.
It is also important to add that while hydrogen bombs are not talked about as often as atomic ones, they are in fact more dangerous. The test that North Korea performed had five-six times the magnitude of what the USA used in the devastating World War II attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. If North Korea does have the means to send these missiles across the globe to attack North America, the destruction will be unprecedented.
To try to mitigate the crisis before the irreversible occurs, the United Nations again spoke about sanctions against North Korea. The United States, arguably the loudest voice in the argument, has suggested a ban on exporting oil to North Korea. Without fuel, the country would definitely be forced to reconsider its policies, but it might also cause a serious economic crisis in the country where the living standard is already reportedly poor enough.
Even if an oil embargo could success in theory, we might not see it in practice. North Korea trades with two countries: Russia and China, both of which are members of the UN Security Council and could veto the embargo. Even though both have spoken against North Korea’s recent actions, it is unlikely that they would support anything too harsh. China, in particular, does not wish to lose its position of importance in North Korea. Russia too is protecting its interests by supporting the claim that an oil embargo will endanger the civilian population more than it would neutralize the military program of North Korea. The United Nations Security Council is yet to vote on any measures against North Korea.
Meanwhile, amid the geopolitical tensions we saw the financial markets in disarray. Stocks moved up and down, as did currencies. The dollar lost some of its positions against major currencies, and the EUR/USD was able to pass the psychological threshold at $1.20. We should note, however, that the American dollar also suffered for other reasons – the destruction caused by hurricane Harvey hasn’t been fully documented yet, and the US southern coast is again in danger of another hurricane, Irma.
The big winner this week has without a doubt been the gold, which reached its highest level in a year. As a safe haven asset, gold is attractive to traders who find other instrument too insecure at the moment. Now the markets are holding their breath as tomorrow North Korea celebrates its independence and there might be another attack to “commemorate” the day. As long as the tensions continue, we are likely to see this trend stick around.
NZD/USD: Short Review & Analysis
We expect the pair to move in a slightly bearish way today.
Today we would look at the NZD/USD currency pair.
For some time now the pair has been moving in a bearish manner below 0.7217, down from 0.7247 previously. The level of 0.7217 actually proves to be an insurmountable resistance level for the NZD/USD at this moment that the pair is simply incapable of overcoming. The NZD/USD seems to be inching closer to the nearby support at 0.7174, so we need to stay alert and be patient until the sideways price channel is fully formed.
Quite on the contrary, Wednesday saw the pair attempting to make new gains, trading above the first resistance and climbing towards the second one at 0.7290. After it failed to overcome it, it retreated to the type of movement we see today. It is not very likely that we would see the pair climb to the second resistance, since the first one is proving to be quite challenging. Therefore, we can wait and see if the NZD/USD will actually drop further down and provide us with a good opportunity to trade on a more pronounced bearish trend.
In the current scenario it would be best if we took sell positions below the resistance at 0.7247, placing our first target at the nearby support level at 0.7174. If the NZD/USD drops further down, our second target would be 0.7144.
Currently the pair is trading around 0.7198, above the support levels. All technical indicators are unanimously giving us a strong sell signal.
USD/SEK: Review & Forecast
The SEK achieved its level from November 2014 thanks to the weakened USD.
The steady downward trend continues, but at the moment the rates have consolidated in the range SEK 7.908 - 8.0. The market hasn't received any economic statistics or news from Sweden which would have affected the Swedish Krona, but the stable economic situation in the Eurozone isn't putting pressure on its value.
Since the end of August the rates have been influenced by the unstable political situation in the United States, the escalation of the conflict between the US and North Korea, and disappointing economic statistics in the United States. As a result, the value of the SEK has reached the level from November 2014, and the downward trend became more rapid. Falling to the minimum for many years began on August 25 when the FED Chairman Janet Yellen did not make any statements related with the country's monetary policy during the symposium in Jackson Hole, which confirmed investors' doubts of a further increase of the interest rate. Then the geopolitical factors, unemployment growth by 4.4%, a reduced volume of manufacturing production in July in 3.3% contrinuted to negatively affecting the USD value.
At the same time it is likely that the minimum has already been achieved and the current phase of consolidation can be the beginning of a flat trend. However, today the dollar can get some support from the release of new economic statistics: the market is waiting for the data on trade balance, and the PMI indices of business activity. Next week we also expect data about retail sales and consumer price indices.
At the moment volatility is very low. The MACD and RSI oscillators do not give us any signals for trading positions. In this situation it's necessary to pay attention to the entry points SEK 7,908 and 8.0, the achievement of which would indicate the completion of the consolidation phase. Now, the most effective course would be the deals to Buy in medium-term trading.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis & Daily Chart
With the recent development we see a potential for further growth in the USD/CHF rate.
Today we direct our attention to the USD/CHF currency pair.
The USD/CHF managed to rise above its support level at 0.9558 yesterday and mark new highs near 0.9670. We expect that this movement above the support would persist for a while. The price is approaching the nearby resistance level of 0.9693. If it manages to overcome that, we can see it grow further to the second resistance at 0.9725. As long as the pair moves above the support level at 0.9558, we hope to see a continuation of the bullish movement from yesterday.
In terms of trading this pair well today, we should expect it to move within about 90 pips, based on the USD/CHF’s previous behavior on the market. Any buy positions should be placed above the pivot of 0.9558, with a first target at the resistance at 0.9693, and a second target at the next resistance level at 0.9725, which is likely the best candidate for a T/P order, as it is unlikely that the pair will be able to overcome it and would likely drop after testing it. However, this strategy is only suitable if the pair remains above 0.9558; if it drops below, we should close these positions.
As of the moment of this article’s publication, the USD/CHF is trading around 0.9595 and technical indicators agree on a strong buy recommendation.
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XAU/USD: Short Review & Forecast
A new round of geopolitical tensions rapidly raised the value of Gold to its 10-month maximum.
As expected, the prices for Gold began to rise rapidly and exceeded the psychological level of $1,300, even earlier than we hoped. Gold started to rise from August 25, according to the results of the economic symposium in Jackson Hole where Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen didn't make any statements regarding the further monetary policy in the United States. This disappointed investors who expected to hear some confirmation of a tightening monetary policy. The U.S currency fell and reached the level of January 2015 against the Euro. Thus, the value of Gold has also increased due to the weakened USD.
This week the Gold got another incentive for strengthening based on increased geopolitical tensions. Yesterday North Korea successfully ran a ballistic rocket that flew over Japanese territories and landed in the Pacific Ocean, near the Japanese island Hokkaido. The demand for safe assets immediately increased then. As a result, the price for Gold reached $1,322, but then stabilized to the level of 1,309 dollars, which is the highest price since October 2016.
After yesterday's peak at $1,322, the line of resistance has slightly shifted up. After the new round of geopolitical tensions we can expect a stabilizing of the prices for Gold as well as of the demand for safe assets. In the near future the price for Gold could retreat back to the level of $1,300 - $1,305. The rates will continue in the frames of the upward trend which was formed a few months ago. In this situation the most optimal course of action would be the short deals, which is also confirmed by the MACD oscillator.
SuperForex Seminar
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NZD/JPY: Short Review and Forecast
The downward trend was formed a month ago and continues amid positive economic news from Japan. The NZD is under the pressure of decreased prices for food and raw materials.
The rates of the NZD/JPY since the beginning of the month are in the frames of the downward trend formed just a month ago. Despite the recent positive data about economy of New Zealand, where we can see a Federal budget surplus by 1.5 billion NZD, the New Zealand currency fell against major currencies. At the same time, it should be noted that the NZD did not have enough incentives for growth amid the absence of news about the economy. In addition, the NZD was under the pressure of the decreased prices for raw materials and food, which reached annual minimums this week. The price for wheat fell from $560 down to $403. At the same time the JPY had many stimuli to strengthen.
The PMI index of business activity in August was 52.8 against the expected level of 52.3. The volume of imports and exports grew less than the expected - 16.3% versus 13.4%, respectively, and in the long term increased the pressure on the trade balance. However, in July the trade surplus in Japan narrowed by 17%, though it's 418 billion yen, exceeding the expectations of investors. A week earlier the yen strengthened due to the unexpected GDP growth by 1% and an increase in consumer spending which was almost twice higher than the market expectation. Therefore, the Japanese economy now looks better for investors.
Tomorrow the NZD may get a chance to strengthen, if new data about the trade balance of New Zealand pleases investors. At the moment, oscillators (MACD, Stochastics, RSI) unanimously point to the rates in the oversold zone. The deals to BUY would be the most effective in this situation. There's a possibility to make a profit on the expected price correction.
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Weekly Market Overview
An update on the Euro and the American dollar in light of recent events.
This week our gaze draws back to Europe. In our previous look at the euro we talked about how much it has strengthened this year, based on positive economic reports and favorable election outcomes. Let’s take a look at the situation in Europe now.
The euro has been the shining star of Forex trading this year, gaining a remarkable 11.5% on the USD so far in 2017. In recent weeks investors’ appetites towards the euro increased amid an expectation that the European Central Bank will change its monetary policy toward a less dovish approach that supports an even stronger euro. Some analysts have even suggested that we may see a parity between the EUR and the British pound in the coming months. However, ECB chief Mario Draghi has not given any real indication that he plans to cut the stimulus program anytime soon.
Now the euro is easing a little bit against the dollar as analysts prepare for the upcoming Jackson Hole conference on August 24-26, where Draghi will speak. The small drops in the price of the euro are likely a result of investors’ impatience regarding the ECB decision on monetary policy.
On Wednesday the euro dropped from its 2015 height level and went 2% down to 1.1691 USD and 1.13960 CHF.
Furthermore, the euro was able to gain on the dollar because of the political turmoil in the United States. Recent tensions with North Korea, as well as a neo-nazi attack both rattled the United States over the past two weeks. However, things seem to be cooling down with North Korea, and the US released some favorable data on retail sales (up by 0.6 in July) which helped the USD find a more solid ground. If the economy fares well and inflation increases, investors would again look to the dollar as an attractive trading instrument and expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates again.
However, economic data from the United States has fluctuated throughout 2017. Inflation and wage growth haven’t been at the expected levels, and the Federal Reserve has been extremely careful about adjusting its policies. This is why right now another rate hike is unlikely. Even if rates are increased in the coming months, analysts don’t expect multiple hikes, as was initially planned.
CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast
Positive economic data from Japan significantly impacted the rates. Seems like formation of the new upward trend.
The rates continue in the frames of the upward trend, but we can see on the chart formation of a weak downtrend. Formation of a new trend is based on the decreasing of oil prices and worsening of trade relations between the United States and Canada.
This week the Japanese yen continued to strengthen due to the positive data on the economy. The country's GDP unexpectedly grew in the 2nd quarter by 1%, while it was expected growth in just 0.6%. Such a growth is the most rapid growth in the Japan's economy since more than 2 years. we hadn't seen the same significant growth since the 1st quarter of 2015. In annual terms, GDP growth was +4%, exceeding forecasts in 1.5%. It should also be noted that Japan's GDP grew for the sixth quarter in a row. Consumer spending indicator increased by 0.9% in Q2, exceeding the expected level in almost 2 times. And the volume of industrial production in June rose by 2.2% amid expectations of 1.6%.
Thus, amid extremely positive statistics from Japan, it was very hard for canadian dollar to resist the yen. Strengthening of JPY would be even more rapid, but it was prevented by a factor of geopolitical tensions between the USA and North Korea, although the situation has been normalized to the usual level these week.
Today the market is waiting for information from Canada's index of consumer prices in July, but likely it's not necessary to expect for significant strengthening of the CAD, given that oil is decreasing again amid information about achieving of the maximum levels of shale oil extraction in the USA over the past 2 years. Crude oil stocks fell significantly this week, but the increase in oil production will lead to rapid recovery of oil reserves. In addition, analysts have lowered their forecasts about demand of oil in China. It should be noted that If China started a massive shift to electric transportation, in accordance with the global trend, it would negatively impact the demand for oil in this country in the future.
Oscillators MACD, Stochastics give contrary signals. In this situation, the most optimal would be to open the short deals upon medium term trading. For those who use short term strategies it's possible to open the deals to BUY, in accordance with Stochastics' signal making a profit on the price correction.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis & Daily Chart
We forecast a bullish movement for the pair in the recent future.
Today we would focus our analysis on the USD/CHF currency pair. The price recently managed to reach areas above 0.9639, and we expect this bullish momentum to continue, possibly as fr as 0.9800.
After trading between 0.9639-0.9600 for several days (which are the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci levels), the pair overcame this fluctuation and reached a new high at 0.9733. The old resistance at 0.9639 turned into a support level, while the pair acquired a new resistance at 0.9763 (which also helps to form a double top pattern on the chart).
Now the price of the USD/CHF can be seen oscillating between 0.9693 and 0.9763. It is demonstrating a markedly bullish character; the RSI indicator also agrees that the pair is located in a bullish trend.
This is why we expect that the USD/CHF would be able to break its nearby resistance level at 0.9763 and continue moving upward. Our next resistance today is located at 0.9800 and might also be tested, if the first one is successfully overcome. As long as the pair is able to stay above its older channel at 0.9639-0.9600, then expect further growth.
At the moment of this article’s publication the pair is trading around 0.9650 and most trading indicators show a strong sell suggestion.
EUR/SGD: Fundamental Review & Forecast
We have an extremely rapid upward trend but it seems like the peak has been reached.
It is difficult to imagine a more rapid upward trend than we can see on the EUR/SGD chart. The Euro strengthened against many currencies, but this did not lead to such a significant increase relative to another currency. At the moment it is likely that the price has reached a peak, especially amid disappointing statistics from the Eurozone. This week the market received data that indicates slower economic growth in the EU. Germany's GDP in the 2nd quarter amounted to only 0.8% yoy, while the market expected a GDP growth of 1.9%. The volumes of industrial manufacturing in the Eurozone fell in June by 0.6%, although this is in line with expectations. The eurozone's GDP is only 0.6% in Q2, which is also in line with the expectation of investors.
Thus, the Euro doesn't have enough stimulus for growth. The Singapore dollar gets the opportunity to consolidate at least at the current levels and prevent a further falling in price. During the last five months the SGD has changed in price from 1.4845 EUR up to EUR 1.602. It should be noted that the Singapore dollar is now at the level of November 2015. This is another reason why we say that the peak has been reached.
Next week the Singapore dollar can be supported due to the release of new statistics about industrial production volumes for July and the consumer prices index. The latest data on the economy of Singapore is showing a pretty good economic situation: retail sales in June grew by 1.9% and continue to grow for the fourth consecutive month.
GBP/NZD Technical Outlook & Daily Chart
We're waiting for the neckline breaking for the rally of the price.
After the GBP/NZD currency pair recorded its highest level this year at 1.8945 in May it turned back to decline by more than 1600 pips and it’s now trading 1.7700. Today the pair slipped down after the negative CPI data from the UK released this morning came at 2.6%, less than the forecasted 2.7%.
The GBP/NZD pair is trading in a series of corrective waves to exceed the 61.8% Fibonacci. Then it would move between 61.8% and 50% and it’s expected that it will rise in the next trading days to mark new highs this month. If we take a look at the chart below we would recognize a tow bottom pattern (which is a reversal pattern), which may change the market direction to the upside - that is in case the prices break the neckline at 1.7885.
The Next Few Days
From this simple analysis of the pair we can buy it now at the current level at 1.7700, keeping our target at 1.7850. We have to go out of the market and wait for the breaking up from the neckline and take another buy position, keeping our target at 1.8230 in case the pair is still trading above the trend line.
This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the Average Earnings Index and the retail sales and has no news from New Zealand except the GDT price index.
GBP/AUD Technical Outlook & H4 Chart
The bears are back this week to make new lows.
After the GBP/AUD recorded its highest level this year at 1.7647 in May, it turned back to decline by more than 1350 pips and it’s trading now at 1.6480. Today the Australian Dollar rose in the beginning of the week because of the tension between North Korea and the United States, in addition to China's foreign ministry saying there is no future in a China-U.S. trade war and adding that issues of trade and North Korea are not connected. The ministry also said that China pays great attention to protecting its intellectual property rights and says the essence of U.S.-China trade is mutually beneficial and a win-win.
The GBP/AUD currency pair is trading inside a downside price channel which may lead the pair to new lows this week. The pair’s trading between support and resistance areas representative at the trend lines and it’s expected that the pair will break the downside trend line to decline further. The moving average is trading above the prices which supports the negative vision, while the Stochastic indicator hasn't shown us the sell signal yet.
The Next Few Days
After we learned the outlook for the pair is down, we can take sell positions at the resistance levels, which means we can take sell positions now at the current level 1.6480, sell again if it reaches 1.6560, and place a third sell position at 1.6640, keeping our target for all of them at 1.6310.
This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the Average Earnings Index and the retail sales. In addition, we expect the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for the Australian bank and the Unemployment Rate.
The US vs. North Korea
The markets are shaken amid the rising tensions between the United States and North Korea.
While this week has been more or less quiet in terms of actual economic events affecting the financial markets, it was quite the opposite in terms of politics: this week US President Donald Trump made several controversial comments that sparked a discussion on whether the United States would be going to war with North Korea.
Needless to say, such major fundamental events always have an effect on the markets. In this particular case it was Asian stocks (particularly in South Korea, which is dangerously close to a potential war zone) that dropped significantly – now they seem more insecure than ever, and investors are directing their attention to other safe-haven instruments such as gold, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen.
The currency of Korea, the won, also suffered losses against the dollar, dropping to its lowest this month as a result of the growing tensions in the region.
Australian markets are also somewhat affected, while the state of the markets in Japan is unclear since the country was celebrating a holiday and the market was not open. The American stock market also suffered amid the news, as did the stock markets in London, Paris, and Frankfurt.
So, what happened exactly?
North Korea, which has been more active in its testing of military weapons over the past few years, announced its intentions to fire missiles into Guam, which is officially a US-controlled territory. It is important to note that the Korean war never officially ended, so at least on paper relations between the United States and North Korea are not good.
In recent months tensions with North Korea came to light also because the communist state released a prisoner who was an American citizen, who reached the US in a terrible physical state. The young man showed signs of extensive brain damage; his condition was so bad that it completely baffled American doctors, and he soon died. This story rattled the West and caused people to speculate that North Korea is up to something.
Instead of addressing North Korea’s plans of attack through the accepted diplomatic channels, Trump took to Twitter to talk about retaliation, and then reaffirmed in an interview that he is ready to go to war if North Korea does attack any American territories.
This newly-added level of serious political insecurity rattled the global financial markets. The dollar marked new decreases against the yen. In addition, the yen is gaining on the USD due to issues with the American treasury and a possible default coming in the next two to three months.
Clearly this is a complex issue. So far neither country has attacked, but considering that President Trump and Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un have got to be the two most unpredictable leaders in the world right now, tensions are definitely growing steadily. Make sure you watch out for any related news and see how the markets are responding as more information is flowing in.
EUR/USD Technical Overview & Daily Chart
After a strong bullish moment for the euro, the price movement has lulled, though we predict it would recover.
Today for our analysis we would look into the current state of the EUR/USD currency pair.
In recent weeks the euro has gradually strengthened against the weakened American dollar. This is largely due to good economic data from Europe, on the one hand, and political instability in the United States, on the other. However, this week we saw some short-term losses for the EUR; still, it didn’t drop too much and was able to find a stable support level above 1.17, which is not bad at all.
The Euro still has the potential to resume its growth to the level of 1.18 that is so coveted by investors, but this might take some time, so we need to be patient.
We currently have the deciding pivot point at 1.1724. If the EUR/USD drops below it, we should keep our eyes on the nearby support levels at 1.1712, 1.1704, and 1.1692. In case the price moves beyond the pivot point, we can use the nearby resistance levels at 1.1732, 1.1744, and 1.1752 as guidance.
As of the moment of this article’s publication the EUR/USD is trading near the pivot point at around 1.1726. The technical indicators are unanimous in recommending a strong sell.
We have some fundamental releases from both the European Union and the United States today. In Europe we expect data on the French industrial production, as well as the trade balance of Italy. From the US we are waiting for the balance of the federal budget, the core PPI, the reserves of natural gas, unemployment, and other economic data. Because of these releases some moderate volatility can be expected in the pair today.
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EUR/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart
The EUR/JPY pair recorded its highest level in 17 months and we expect new highs.
The EUR/JPY currency pair rose last week to gain more than 130 pips and break the key resistance level at 130.64. Then, the currency pair doped on Friday after the US jobs report which showed an increase of 27 000 compared to 209k in July, so now the pair has returned back to trade above the resistance level again.
The EUR/JPY pair has been trading inside a price channel since last April and after it broke July’s high to record the highest level in 17 months it is expected the pair will make new highs this month. The EUR/JPY is still trading above the moving average which is a support level for the prices and the MACD indicator supports our positive vision too.
The Next Few Days
From this simple analysis of the pair we can buy it at the current level 130.73 and keep our first target at 132.12, which is 161.8% from the short correction wave last month; we should place our second target at 134.14 and keep our stop-loss level once the pair breaks the channel down because it will change the trend if it did. If the pair breaks the support level 128.64 down we have to sell the pair and keep the take profit level at 125.50.
This week the market is poor in terms of hot economic news from the European Union or Japan. On Friday Japanese banks will be closed for Mountain Day.
British Struggles
The fallout from Brexit is a deteriorating economic climate in the UK, and the British pound shows it.
Despite the unexpected strength of economic growth in Europe, the struggles of the United Kingdom continue. After the devastating losses incurred immediately before and after the Brexit referendum vote last summer and the disastrous elections results earlier this year, Britain and its currency still find themselves in a tight spot.
Yesterday we heard from the Bank of England, who this time announced that they are taking a more pessimistic prognosis of the UK’s economy and downgraded their forecasts for economic growth for 2017 and 2018 for the second time this summer. As a result, the British pound sterling suffered losses versus the American dollar of almost 1%.
The Bank of England’s stance is likely rooted in the disappointing wages. Since the pound slumped, goods imported to the United Kingdom naturally cost more for Brits, essentially driving their purchasing power lower. The BoE expects this problem to worsen in the future and is somewhat apprehensive regarding wage growth.
Bank of England governor Mark Carney expressed a concern for businesses who find it additionally difficult to invest amid the political struggle inside of the United Kingdom and the problematic negotiations with the European Union regarding Brexit.
The United Kingdom is currently lagging behind its European counterparts, and Carney expects an even slower economic growth. Needless to say, the bank chose not to increase interest rates yet, in hopes of stimulating the economy.
Despite the political discord within the United Kingdom due to Theresa May’s party failing to achieve a definitive majority in the preliminary parliamentary elections she called and the lack of strong British leadership that resulted from that, the UK has proceeded with the EU negotiations. However, even though negotiators have met several times now, not much has been decided, especially since the EU is putting pressure on the UK to meet its critical demands regarding immigration and payment.
Overall, the situation seems really unclear right now. British politicians are not helping much, as they provide contradictory statements from time to time, indicating the British government is not on the same page. The British pound has already dropped 13% since the Brexit vote, and due to the lack of proper leadership and the absence of clarity regarding the negotiations with the European Union we expect the GBP to continue its decrease versus major currencies.
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