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N3, glad to see you here. This one is slightly higher risk than Cytrx in my opinion. However, it does have some similarities. They have interim trial results that is due second half of this year and we heard nothing of it yet. Some tutes holding shares but Aryton Captial sold 40 million where most believe they were in only to influence the vote outcome. Currently Hudson Bay, Ren, and Vanguard still holds a whole lot. So that's another similarity that some funds are betting on this.
I started following this since June pop on the no RS vote. 0.02 all time low to 0.36 is beyond amazing for those played it right. Even those those got in in the 15 - 20 chase still made some good profit.
The company is out of funding if RS do not pass because convertible debts depend on new shares and so they can get their remaining 13 million restricted cash.
The situation here is a bit more dire for management because they are out of funds. What this leads to are speculations of potential deal in the making. One due the trial results not being out yet when expected, and two no RS no money may force a deal through. At one people people were talking management has been rather quiet and don't release much news anymore.
I say this one is higher risk because management didn't openly say they are seeking strategic partnership and if one do happen it is likely done out of desperation rather than sound planning. So the results is a bit unpredictable. Plus no funding can result in potential BK filing however less likely that might be.
None the less we have very good trading opportunities here because the SP is so low even just a few pennies move is a good percentage of profit.
Because some believe they have past offers and may ended up selling the company or finding a partnership to fund the projects. Because, chemosat has value and should have no issues finding a suitor.
Gator, perhaps you are right and I also do believe they didn't sell in prior offers for the same reason. They want to drag this out as long as possible to increase the value of the assets.
But let me tell you this. FDA approval is not a requirement for the treatment to sell in the billions. What's important is the results we are seeing from the labs and the 8 EU hospitals doing the actual treatment.
What's important is how likely FDA will ok this and the planned trial results. Now, Chemosat isn't that new, it's been around for years and they even improved it with the second generation filters to reduce side effects.
Although only practiced in EU and in clinical in US. But, that's already more than enough data for a suitor to make an well informed decision.
If they accept an offer now, it's not going to close for some time and it is entirely possible they ask for an RS after the offer and then ask to be granted options prior to the closing date. I think shareholders would approve. So it would be in her best interest to try and find a win win situation between her and shareholders.
My take on this whole thing was that they made a bad mistake last year when they needed more funding.
Then they realized the mistake when we hit 0.02 just months ago and they tried to fix that but they couldn't. So they are scrambling to look at all options. Now, between then and now they have to have though what if RS fails? They have to have plan B or plan C.
Assuming they didn't plan ahead. Assuming they were surprised with the first no RS vote result, they would be in the situation that we're discussing right now that they might have to accept a low balled offer either a partnership or M&A. Or, they would need someone to bail them out of the debt situation. after all of that is out of the window then BK would be the last resort.
So it is highly likely they have early planning and we know they have offers in the past. That would end up well for all of us including management if they can do a partnership. Worst case scenario we ended up with a low balled offer BO. That's what I think will happen.
She's not going to file BK where the judge will simply ask why didn't you consider these offers in the past? She's going to look very bad and make a lot of enemy going down the BK route. It's simply not wise.
One thing I do agree is like you said Gator, all options will be on the table.
But, keep in mind, this isn't some small stock that nobody cared about. We have tons of watchers and a lot of people professional and armatures alike holding what appears to be 500 million shares outstanding.
She would be very unwise to declare total war with shareholders, she's going to get law suites more than she can count. You can bet on that.
BK is the absolute last resort before refinancing, partnership deals or even a sell out.
She would be very unwise to go against the public in a BK and screw with the people that's voting NO right now. It's simply unwise to fight a ware against the general public. She's asking to get killed.
There are consequences in declaring BK and try to emerge out of it a new company.
Just put yourself in her shoes right now, and ask yourself if you'd even remotely considering filing for BK when you have other options on the table.
Yes, but they aren't dumb, they know there are laws and rules kept them in check. If management do something drastic they will regret it. It's in their best interest to settle this problem that benefits both sides too. Both them and shareholders and potential future of Delcath.
Wrong, the chart doesn't record accurate highs. Look at the highs and lows for those days. It touched 37.
Lol, I'd say now you're greedy. I'd settle for 35 lol.
Company Executives often come with golden parachute upon termination. She's not losing her job for nothing on BO. Plus it looks good on her resume for the next job rather than I had to file BK = prison or end of career.
Agree, like I said if you really dig into their pipeline and see what they have accomplished 15 million debt is nothing to even remotely trigger a BK.
Any big ontology company can easily afford 15 million like pocket change. Chemosat value cannot be worthless according to their reporting and past trials.
Otherwise, like others and I have said, they deceive the public it's prison time.
It is true the CEO does not currently own much of the company. However, these guys are opening themselves to a whole lot of lawsuits.
The reason is they have been presenting the public this image that Chemosat was an effective treatment based on all their documentations and press release. Company presentation have been projecting the market being in the 2-8 billion.
Now, after such a disastrous financing with the 35 million convertible debt last year, SP crashed from 3$ in lat 2016 to 0.02 in matter of months. If they file BK now, it's complete negligence of fiduciary duty to the shareholders.
Simpson probably go down in history as the worst CEO ever. The CEO, the boards all of them are looking at major lawsuits here. It means the end of careers.
15 million debt isn't impossible to refinance even if RS is a no. They should have no issue getting help if their asset was what they had presented to the public. So, if the company lied again about Chemosat, it's prison time.
This isn't something they can just bring down the ship with them that easily. I am not saying BK won't happen, but I am pointing out there are a lot at stake here for them to even think about BK.
We know that, but you ever thought about what if RS just won't pass? What then? Go BK and let creditors take the treatment technology, patents and auction it ? I think not.
Hard to say but I have been digging a lot on their past trials and reports. If those reports were accurate, Delcath should be a billion dollar deal.
Like I say, in capable hands they can immediately realize revenue in UE, and Australia.
US approval is only matter of time. FDA didn't approve it back then was due to the filter efficiency and that cause side effects too severe to out weigh the benefits.
According tho their press release, Delcath have developed a second generation filters that has some 93 or was it 96% efficiency and that reduced the side effects. So they have an agreement with FDA to run a large scale trial and report the results and FDA will then ok the treatment.
Combined market was in 2-8 billion potential depend on degree of market penetration and all the indications they can get plus acceptance of the chemosat therapies as standard of care.
I don't think many here knows the true value of Chemosat procedure. The company knows it and they won't sell cheap.
Some say it's 100 million some say 400 some say 750 lol. It all depends on circumstances. If the suitor is willing to pay for it and biding war starts it can get interesting.
Good thinking here Staccani. I don't know if anyone ever wonder why are their trials taking so long to complete? Simple logic here, you can't conclude a trial too soon if the patient is still alive. From enrollment, to receiving treatment to following the patients is taking years versus typical standard of care where a doctor may tell the patients they only got 8 months of life. Now you see what I am talking about?
Because the primary end point of the trial is OS or overall survival. The trial will only conclude until the patient last day on earth. That way they can record the trial and the length of over all survival. So if the focused phase 3 was taking more than 3 years it's a good thing. It means the treatment is effective and it is extending patient's life by years.
Most people don't understand how these trials and treatments works. I suggest you go read up on these trials and then look at their past reports. OS in some cases have been as long as 3 years.
Sam, I've seen a lot of Bio techs M&A. Many of them don't even have an approved product. A lot were in late stage development with no approvals but they were able to secure partnership deals or even buyout simply because the research they were doing fits the buyer's plannings.
For example the most recent one that people keeps comparing to Cytrx. Cytrx has one product called Aldoxorubicin which is a modified version of Doxorubicin with safer profiles.
They just completed phase 3 trials and they haven't even filed for FDA approval yet. And, NantCell see the potential which ended up offering them 13 million investment and 350 million milestone upon FDA approval and marketing plus double digit royalty payment. NantCell will take over any further development and pay for all costs.
Buyers look at the transaction as a long term investment. They buy the treatment and may spend money develop it further, but like Delcath they expect returns in the future when commercialized. So we can't really value Delcath based on its current revenue. Instead, it should be valued based on potential market size and potential future revenue when commercialized. A 400-500 million deal isn't unreasonable at this point considering the fact they already have EU and Australia approval.
A fair deal in the 1-2 billion range isn't unreasonable under normal circumstances. We all know the company is in no position to negotiate but that doesn't automatically equal a BK fire sales of 50-100 million dollars. However, that can be the big problem is that the company being forced will likely be offered a very low offer. In any case, it is still better than RS and more dilution.
Yes, my apologies, I didn't mean to imply you're lack of reasoning. And I do agree with a short squeeze anything is possible.
If we get a big chase from the 36k watchers or more, it could really screw with the shorts caught in the squeeze. There will probably be some damage control to keep it down but when volumes shoots up it be hard to control it.
Last time we had some 600 million volume day. Obviously the sames shares were traded multiple times on the way up. Often times pro traders use that buy sell, then buy again and keep pushing through resistances.
Same thing shorts would short then cover and short some more to attempt to drop the price. It all depend on that extra buy interest from other people it can really push things when people start to chase.
Yeah, I hear you current management is in no position to really bring in revenues even if they try. Like I said Delcath is too small to be effectively marketing globally. They don't have the man power, or network and connections to be doing big business.
If forced to sell they can be ripped off with a 100 million offer like you said, which, that is unfortunate when the treatment has billion dollar market potential.
That is likely the reason they won't partner not because they don't have offers but they got bad offers they won't consider unless they are out of options. I kept saying this is that they are out of options lol. If you get my drift.
I think anyone in this room can agree management hasn't done a good job. Maybe we shouldn't blame them too much because it's very hard to run a small company and obviously you don't have the resources that a well established company enjoys.
So maybe they didn't do such a good job or shall I say it was a tough job to do for current management. But, that doesn't matter because the public only wants results, no body cares about any excuses.
So there you have it. The current investors want out, they want an end to the endless dilution. They want the company sell to a capable hands and get paid for their investment. They don't want to wait another 5 years and 5 more RS just so they can get 10% of their loses back and still ended up down -90%.
The no vote is sending a message to the company that the shareholders don't want Delcath to continue on. They want Delcath to sell.
James 1$ = 500 million market cap, the company is no position to be carrying that value short term unless they sign a partnership deal that brings up front payment and somewhere around 300-400 million milestone.
That would make the company value some where between 400-500 million which will equal 1$ based on the 500 million shares outstanding.
But, I agree, should they get US approval some times down the road, even with a 500 million shares, it not hard to reach a 1-3$ value.
In any case, Delcath can't do it alone with 11-50 employees according to their linkedin profile. Just not going to happen.
Not necessarily toro, because it's double edged sword. Some longs might be shaken out due to the fact, RS announcement is upon us.
However, I think the sentiment is shifting to a no vote so we likely see SP rise some but probably not much until we see the actual news of a no vote.
And no news is actually good news in this case, it would warm up the run tomorrow if we don't hear anything. They have a few days time frame to PR the result.
Add the buyout rumor it will fly lol. But boy am I glad to be holding shares and getting my average low.
I know a lot of people are very skeptical about Buyout or partnership. But, don't count that out however unlikely you might think.
We can't see the future but we certainly can predict it to some degree of accuracy based on current events.
First, we knew the company is out of cash without new shares to offer for the remaining convertible. As the result some 13 million funding is locked and no longer available. Ok, so the company is in desperate need for funding.
Secondly, looking at the medical results from earlier trials and EU success, the treatment was extending over all survival by a significant amount compare to other chemo therapies out there whether it's Doxorubicin the main stay for the last few decades, or Topotecan, none of them extends OS more than average of 8 months to 1 and 1/2 years at most 16 months to 19 months in most cases. Ok, so a treatment that can get you even just few more months or another year of life is a very big deal. Plus if it stops progression or reduce tumor may allow for surgical removal.
So what we're looking at here is a company in very bad state of finance and a valuable cancer treatment. That combination is a buyout target.
Now, the problem is all of this is controlled by the board of directors and company management. Obviously, they own little of company shares so it is least of their interest to sell the company. Because, they would be out of jobs. But, when they are out of options, a sell would be the last effort to exit versus filing BK protection.
15 million debt is nothing in terms of a valuable cancer treatment. It has the potential to be worth billions. Even a low balled offer or a rip off offer if you want to call it that, is probably some where north in the hundred millions.
Delcath management would be wise to get a partnership in case they did't realize, they are being forced to sell the company with a no Vote.
Sam, book value and fair value are too different things. Depend on how you value a cancer treatment that's worth billions in potential market fair value is far higher than what they keep on the company book. Don't confuse that.
If Delcath were to sell their asset, we're talking a different valuation and not the company book value.
It's the shorts covering that's putting the upward pressure, plus it probably hit some radars today for traders to take advantages of it.
If only sellers knew what's happening they control the upward run by setting higher sell price.
As I said, today is the last day and shorts may not hold through RS and will cover to protect themselves. If we get a no on RS tomorrow or Friday, shorts would be wise to be out ahead of that.
Yes, this is what I am talking about. Tomorrow is the absolute last day for those that don't plan on holding through RS. It might be lots of selling, or it might be lots of covering.
Or it might cancel out and stay relatively balance but with increased volume. If by 9/7 we don't hear anything, this likely start heading up and warm up.
James, as I said, tomorrow is the exit day. Today is the last of the buying long or shorting not tomorrow.
Tomorrow is the end of voting and PR can follow as early as 9/7 premarket, but of course it can be later too.
If you want to short and hold you would do it while this was anywhere from 14-24 not while it's at 10. Most of the short in recent days are closed before market close and not much hold over night.
Each day it's shorted down in AM then cover before close so it steps down slowly. Not much buying going on so stock don't go up. But, I think things are about to change tomorrow.
Knox, not sure of tomorrow, but stock can revsit historical lows. Check the chart. It will bottom when all interest dies down and what's left are those still holding.
Thanks for the update, I'm very interested in seeing the outcome. As I always said, it doesn't take much to see this management has other motives not in the interest of building shareholders value.
No matter how they play it, it's one of those stock that if you simply spend some time following and doing DD you find something very wrong with this management. The whole trails of SEC filings, and doing things at certain point in time, all of that don't add up right.
Eventually, it becomes clear to you. If SK is removed form position, and a new CEO come into play, a lot of things will be cleared up.
I know this stuff takes time, and I hope to see some results by year end. RS is a NO. Worst case we hit low 40s but the stock have just about sold down to bottom.
Ok, that at least keeps the ratio the same post RS. In any case, I still don't understand why management won't simply try to raise the share price. It's not hard to produce a run to 1$ unless the stock is being controlled and they can't do anything about it.
Yeah, when company dilute stock with the wrong financial groups, their stock get attacked , manipulated and played. It's how these financial groups work.
Once that happen and the company lose legitimate institutional support, it's going to be very hard to come out of that and recover obviously because the stock price is so low some might not be able to invest at all.
Ideally, an RS to raise the SP and then news to pump it and attract institutional support would be great, but I find it hard for anyone to trust current management to pull something like this.
Plus the past offerings have dilution still in place and hasn't been addressed. It's just not going to gain investor confidence.
They can't really breach the contracts and cancel all the warrants out there. Once the bad finance is done, you don't get out of it that easily.
So management got a lot to do to get out of this. I think they should just stop asking for RS and focus on building the share price. It's not hard for them to do that.
But, guess what? They have something else in mind, or so it seems.
They won't release anything until RS is settled. Company may look to institutions for voting support. Have Tutes buy in and vote in favor of RS. Of course Tutes would need to be given something in return like warrants or cheap shares.
Without Tutes support, RS is unlikely to pass. They are setting on the good news until RS pass so they can pump. To counter the dilution that still exist with the 18 million warrants.
I don't believe hey have mentioned anything about the existing warrants and what they plan to do with them.
If the 18 million warrants aren't amended it would mean the holders are able to buy shares post RS at 0.50 per share value.
Post RS shares outstanding would likely be reduced by a lot and 18 million warrants means a whole lot compare to now unless they somehow affect the warrants with RS. I'm not currently spending much time here on Cytrx but just keeping an eye on things.
As I said the fear is highest just before the vote result Thursday. The lower it goes the more profit for shorts when they cover quietly.
Shorts at this point will either cover just before Thursday vote result or they will hold through just like longs. And when the 8k is out on vote result, winner takes all.
Either longs run for the hills or bears run for the hills. lol
Highly likely Mintmoondog. As many believed Chemosat is valuable. Although DCTH couldn't effectively market it in EU, it has achieved 100 treatments in both UK and Germany with 8 centers out in EU with very impressive results.
Now, imagine what Merck, Roche, or Bayer can do with Chemosat in their hands?
As I mentioned, the win win situation is a partnership. But if management is too stubborn, it may come down to a T/O. Because shareholders rather give away the treatment platform rather than having current management continue with their poor performance.
A friendly take over is to approach the board of directors and offer. Or go straight to shareholders and offer to take control of the company.
I don't believe Delcath is going to go down in a BK sales. But if it comes down to that, there are still many many options the company can sell its asset and pay back the debt. It's easily worth more than 50 million dollars right now.
The recent article with insider finance has the same view with mine. The Chemosat platform has value and it isn't hard to find a partner.
The issue is they may not find a partner with favorable terms. So RS is preferred. RS voting down will force that partnership deal.
A bad deal is bad for company and management because the asset is likely licensed cheap and management gets little in return, but that's great for any current shareholders.
A partner can put down a 10-20 million cash as up front payment and buys all rights to Chemosat license and patents. That will provide company funding to keep operating. Then milestone payment and royalty payments on successful commercialization in US as well as reaching sales target in EU an other countries with approval. That generates long term revenue.
Only then will an RS be possible and will get shareholders votes. It's the best outcome for both management and shareholders. Because, management keeps their job and continue to operate, shareholders realize short term return and are happy. RS goes through after, and all problems solved including NASDAQ listing issue.
If management can't accomplish this partnership deal, then they deserve to be out of jobs and the company sold cheap to the highest bidder. There is no point having them continuing further based on the past performance of two 1 for 16 RS and bad financing that killed the share price all the way down to 0.02. That's beyond failure. So, they fix this for shareholders or they are out of jobs.
They wouldn't be presenting in Spain next week if BK was the plan. None sense. But, I do agree that we should look to exit on a no vote when announced. Would be foolish to miss out the profit take.
May consider buy in again when it drops back down.
Correct, if you look at L2, most are buys and little actual sells. not much was traded.
Pretty much, further finance and dilution is highly likely after RS since 13 million funding will only last for so long before they need more.
Many people are saying they will go down with DCTH on a no vote. It sounds like they would rather go BK than allowing RS.
She can't really say if we vote no NASDAQ will delist us. That's NASDAQ's decision and it hasn't been made.
So the wording has to be careful she can get sued. All she can say is if no RS we may, likely, or possibility be delisted. NASDAQ does not say if you don't RS we will delist you.
NASDAQ ask for a plan to convince them that Delcath will meet the requirements down the road, an RS is just one of the ways.
Agree, I have posted before that RS is for the reason to get NASDAQ extension. They knew all too well they won't get the votes. But, it doesn't hurt to try in case RS do pass they would be good.
I also believe they have plan B in the work if RS is a no. They will no doubt face BK and must find alternatives.
Management might be bad, but they aren't dumb. Since before the first RS proposal in April and the vote in June, they would have already been looking at worst case scenario of a no vote before year end and when they run out of money.
It is my belief they have alternative plans in place. It might not be what they wanted but when you're desperate and have little choice, you do the best you can whether you like it or not.
New filing has insight into RS ratio. The floor price of 0.05 will be adjusted to minimum of 1.00$ That means the RS ratio is 1 for 20 at the minimum. 0.05 x 20= 1$. It doesn't mean they won't do anything higher than 1 for 20 since the proxy stated it will be in the range of 20-500.
Last two times they did a 1 for 16 RS. My guess is we probably get a 1 for 20 or slightly higher but I don't think anything too high is in the planning. In any case, 1 for 20 or so RS will put us in the 2-3$ range with a 1$ floor price. But, the warrant price of 1$ doesn't prevent people from dumping and shorts taking this below 1$ again. 50% or greater loses is very real. Warrants allow holders to buy direct from company at exercise price like options. But that's not buying from the open market. The open market is still dependent on common shareholders buying and selling. Selling pressure will crash the stock.
"Additionally, the floor price of $.05 for the remaining 10% of our Convertible Notes will be required to adjust by NASDAQ with the effected reverse stock split ratio to a minimum of $1.00. We believe this should serve to support the stock price following a split and reduce future potential dilution related to the Convertible Note. "
I tried searching that on NSDAQ site, but it doesn't looks like NASDAQ makes it public information since that can influence share price. So I don't think there is a way for us to know until company PR.
With RS proposed and close date on 9/7 my guess is that any delisting won't happen until after 9/7 because when they appeal they get to stay listed until the NASDAQ ruling likely after RS fails.
Because RS is a way to cure the deficiency so NASDAQ decision is likely delayed until RS vote result is out. If RS passes, the NASDAQ panel will likely grant continual listing since the share price will no longer be under 1$.
If RS is no, it's hard to say. NASDAQ may denied them and we'll be preparing for OTC listing. Or it may still be delayed further if company plead they will attempt yet another RS vote in October for example, that may yet create another listing stay until then.
The only way they going to pass RS is to rely on institutions to buy shares then vote in favor. Problem is, it felt like even the institutions wouldn't support them fully because lawsuits are real and institutions would thread lightly to be involved. Many of them get fines from SEC investigations.
They would need another like Aryton Capital to buy up 50 million more shares. But, the institution wouldn't do that unless they get paid in some way like the convertible holders will be getting warrants post RS.
So management is likely running into a wall no way out if existing institutions aren't enough to win a yes vote. In order to attract new ones, they need to make more offering. Obviously they can't offer anymore common shares. Only preferred shares, but if they keep on doing this crap, it's going to become too obvious that they will find themselves in court.
My bet is on a no Vote and a force BK sales. Restructuring or potential low offer for a buyout. Anything is better than having your shares reduced to nothing. Any SP drop post RS is multiplied by RS ratio and the last two RS speaks for themselves.