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I would not be surprised if this is bad but since my current value is slightly over $2K, I will just feel another round of pain and maybe sell whatever remnant
When times are tough, I did not want to be too lax. The great question will be if there is nothing after hours. That leaves about 4 scenarios.
Neutral AH, good AH, horrible AH, No AH which is also horrible
An SEC form calculator appears to say today is the filing deadline but the lack of any good news so far, I think my 10000 or so shares is plenty of exposure
Since this is 91st day of year, it seems like the filing is late and no warning about late filing. This puts a negative slant on the old black box.
Extraordinary price stability supports this is a black box. May this box open soon so we know whether to add, subtract, be glad or be sad
I concede if management still says enrollment by June, clearly stated IF, my calculation would be stock price for rest of year would be who can shoot best at the tricky duck
or black box, part 2, at 1 cent
What is the chance of great ER? Not much imo as the price is not telling and no press releases telling. The tremendous price stability is powerfully interesting, a true black box for now
Hold them or fold them. The legit binary could be any day. The financial story is ever so murky, will be less so with annual. Also, will company stay will June enrollment date or ….?
trying to double my little position today, but may yet sell some at 25 cents, stay loose my friends
There have been quite a few profitable opportunities here, every one since start of 2017 required good timing on both the buy and the sell, I hope buys at 28 cents will overall be good for a very long period, and I stick to no idea at all what price will be at end of 2019.
There is an absence of hard selling. I reserve the right to be clueless as the next person, but this long lived stability is interesting
Yes, I have only lost money here slowly since June 2017. Like the assessment of some strange new acquaintance, I don't know whether to shake his hand or punch him in the face
Definitely seems too long, but could be multiple reasons, I will add if the winds look good, but price weakness is not usually a good sign
My advice is to tread lightly. Big risk / big reward / big combo of both all in play
We investors can do better. Solid meat is a requirement: get to full enrollment, get a $1.5 million revenue qtr, flesh out a licensing agreement that is reducing cash burn. We are not there but annual report would be a hopeful start, maybe or maybe not
The correct answer considering the ever changing share structure would be all time low of 25 cents. Market cap is if 11 million or so shares still on the low end, but if you picture a likely 50 million to 500 million shares down the line, practical market cap is like carrying a handful of water in your hand for 5 miles
To remain more general since I don't know enough to get in the pharmaceutical mindset, it is valid to wonder why everything remains deadbeat here, at least SO FAR. Blaming management and bod for simply everything, that is not my route. That leaves what revenue, I want to see hospitals busting with enthusiasm for CS
Share counts matter. If share count goes up only about 5 fold for rest of year to about 50 Million shares, likely money will come to longs.
100 million by end of 2019 would still be an improvement over business as usual, with an okay chance for longs.
Otherwise my buy at 28 or so cents may never pan out.
Hopefully all know full enrollment is approximately 1 year before trial conclusion. My person guess on full enrollment remains Sep 2019.
It is right to be skeptical about whether Medac spells value, however if they are the real deal, look for commercial growth and maybe positive news on the clinical trial front as well
Bod and management work together to keep the company financed. This financial hole of very low market cap and very high burn rate are sure to bring defeat countered by a story of a technology I have no commercial faith in, but does Medac?
I hope management makes a ton of money off .28 options. If things turn north in a big way, $1.75 means profit for some folks, the old $1.75 lousy deal may it turn out to be the last of the shareholder destruction, I would not place odds on that, hope for the best and expect the worst
To put another perspective: if this company found a way to be at only 50 million shares by the end of 2019, I would be heavily impressed. That would still be 50 or so fold increase since the reverse split
That would mean the hidden current market cap would be essentially $15 million
Germany is not rushing to use chemosat for ICC, HCC, etc. and not even for OM itself. What is holding them back? I want that $1.5 M Qtr
The stock has to break 40 cents for a lengthy period to prevent cheap financing as long as the company burns money. So, if Medac does not really pump life into this death like spiral, mathematics says sooner or later there will be 100 M shares outstanding. Full enrollment is a countermeasure, but still like 2 heavyweights going at it.
Who knows but many millions of 1 cent warrants is not to be ignored along with 4 years of poor financing. Amazing the long period of tight trading range, may come down to Medac on what and when
It has been 4 years since financing went okay. The market cap currently is way too low in ratio to likely cash burn rate. I am surprised 1 cent warrants have not hit hard. I don't want to see 100 million shares, we shall see.
The company is always masking stuff imo including enrollment count but Simpson did consistently indicate phase 3 was behind schedule. We don't know the full thoughts of the medical community, that is why I am an advocate of respecting revenue figures. They have been excused too much, until I see that first qtr to reach $1.5 million, all should be skeptics
I don't compare closely to the phase 3 timeline from long ago. I believe the slow enrollment under Simpson is more a reflection on lack of excitement in the medical community, so despite Simpson's honest efforts this may be a good rider on a mediocre horse. That is the opposite of what so many think, but there you have it.
Of course a certain percentage will not come close to 6 treatments, but the company is masking safety issues in Europe is a possibility. I am very confident this procedure is fairly safe, after all one patient opted for 8 treatments. Lack of spectacular success on any front so far allows me to think the product may not have what it takes, Medac news, more revenue growth, enrollment complete anywhere from May to September, anything to brighten the picture would be welcome
Little talk of the medical side here. I assume up to 6 treatments is still the methodology for phase 3. There is little data on that many treatments because in Europe at least before German reimbursement, a financial constraint on use. This message board may change radically some day after enrollment is full.
Commercial potential may expand if 6 treatments proves to provide an enormous improvement in life expectancy. I tend to forget about this stuff because the history of very slow clinical development under Simpson has been a killer. I believe though she is honestly committed to advancing this technology. This is truly a possibly great year for the company, but I don't think there is significant accumulation, 1 cent warrants and $1.75 stinky deal,etc.. etc.. What a great dangerous speculation!!!!
I suspect (IF Medac is real and completely on top of things), the most likely quarter for a big break out would be 4th qtr 2019. Delcath at best is like Rome, not built in a day.
Legitimacy. I am a skeptic that enrollment will be completed by June, on the other hand I believe press releases that discuss agreements achieved on topic with FDA. FDA does not support fraud, except maybe regarding themselves.
I have not researched closely current financial status. I am a skeptic that an accurate picture is available. Hope annual report helps. At best being prudent, delcath should be working hard to raise money as soon as reasonably possible.
It would help in the pom pom department if 4th qtr has $900K in revenue
I accept the company is legitimate, until something tells me otherwise.
Instead "legitimate" is about getting enrollment done in 2019 even if not by June.
I look to Europe, particularly Germany. Revenue for too long has been unsatisfactory, I will not believe in the technology until I see the first qtr that delivers total revenue of $1.5 million. Last reported qtr was I believe first to have more than $800K
Good research by you, but keeping it really simple, zooming towards $10 million revenue annually is a common sense milestone. I consider $1.5 million to $2 million for the 4th qtr in 2019 reported in March 2020 as something we could sink our teeth in
If you consider that the rights process started with a price mostly around $3.00, it was nasty to a lot of shareholders. It is way too premature to be confident that this year will be positive, hey but the chance is better than 2010, 2011 …, 2018 since hindsight works so well
No way I am making predictions on when this becomes a respectable speculation versus a stock that could go up hard quickly to maybe $2 and then go down quickly giving up at least most of gains.
Medac may turn this story around, but we know so little it is embarrassing. Generation of greater backlogs of 1 cent warrants needs to come to a stop, I am not going to take a position any financer is better than HB, America is not always a kind place to invest according to my many scars from 40 years of experience
Rose colored land, not so much the company.
My take is if submission can be completed by the end of 2020 or earlier, then 2021 could be self-sustaining or profitable. Better chance actually for buy out before end of 2020.
Bankruptcy chance GREATER than chance of self-substainable for 2019.
The how does not matter, but getting fast towards $10 million is important for me, I am a big skeptic that delcath can come close in 2019, how the grand total would be split between medac and delcath is a lesser concern
Not necessary, the evidence is overpowering that delcath is the historical bottom of the barrel. If Medac is going to turn it, let's roll but it won't be Brazil itself imo