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If it wasn't their money they aren't going to lose a thing.
Do I believe that they used corporate funds to buy personal shares? Probably not, but if they really invested their own money why are they so incomprehensibly incompetent at raising shareholder value, aka communicating? It's embarrassing.
ERHE has a very REAL chance of being a $10-$50 stock in a very short amount of time and these incompetent boobs can't get the word out.
They don't deserve their paychecks.
"Do you think that they can't survive beyond a dry Kenya hole?"
I am sure they can... by wiping current shareholders the rest of the way out, unless they can continue throwing money away just to pay undeserved salaries.
"What did they get for the EEZ?"
It's in the filing.
"And do you think Peter and Sylvan placed their money on ONE bet only on oil...?"
I think they have placed their money, not on a bet for oil, but on the knowledge that they will benefit from that bet. They can't know if there will be oil, but they do know if the company will be sold, because they control that. For how much? Who knows. Where is Sinopec's comprehensive report on the 5 wells drilled in the JDZ? Oh yeah, there has never been one published. I found that odd then and I still do.
In Vegas, a dozens bet on the roulette wheel has roughly the same odds as the upcoming well and pays 2 to 1. You bet a dollar, you can win $2.
In ERHC's case, because of the fear gap, the payout on those same odds will be 100-200 (or more) to 1. You bet a dollar, you win $100-$200 or more.
It's certainly not guaranteed, but the payout is way out of whack in our favor based on the odds!
Middy, I agree with you. Ntephe's refusal to show even the slightest leadership ability is a continuous drag. He is incompetent in the CEO position. In this case he may be unintentionally providing a hint. By not comforting shareholders by telling them the plan if drilling fails to produce oil he may be telling us that this is the end. ERHC Energy will be sold regardless of the results.
Find oil? High price.
Don't find oil? Throw a dart.
A near 20% probability of success is almost infinitely higher than what the adjective "miracle" implies.
Oil is already being forecasted to rebound to $45 by this fall. And any hiccup in world events would propel it higher. I agree that a successful drill this spring is key. It doesn't have to be 66M barrels either. Success with the first well would significantly derisk the remaining prospects and that would be priced in to the stock immediately. As for a pipeline in Kenya... see this Wall Street Journal article from a few weeks ago:
"But $12 (or $14) is as unrealistic now as it was back in the JDZ days"
Actually, $14 was realistically possible had the JDZ panned out as estimated, but to advance the conversation let me say that $14 now, after the reverse, is far more possible than before.
Back then it required that the 14B barrels estimated come to fruition. Now, a mere 28M barrels, ERHC's share, makes $14 possible.
From ERHC's website:
"The mean estimate of oil prospective un-risked resources for the prospect is 66 million barrels. Mean un-risked prospective resources of all prospects and leads in Block 11A totals 662 million barrels."i]
ERHC hold 35% of that block. 35% of 66M is 23M barrels and 35% of 662M barrels is 231M barrels, ERHC's share.
At $15 per barrel (IMO, conservative given a pipeline is going right through the block), those numbers put the share price between $11.50 and $115. Laugh all you want, those numbers are realistic.
Anyone asking someone else "why are you here?" simply needs to read this post. It is why we are ALL here.
Thanks for making my point.
"One point left out is what the stock price would have to be to break even after buying the delusion insurance. Somewhere north of $12/share I believe or a market cap of $360 million"
Your bolded statement above assumes NOT buying additional shares and riding it out. That was my point..
The Armageddon scenario is only true for anyone not buying the ridiculous low lows, we both know that.
I don't see massive dilution coming. If that were the case management wouldn't be buying... and they have been buying, significantly.
"They hardly are going to now do a U turn to support an inept CEO who decimated 99 % of their investment !!"
You missed my point completely. Rather than re-evaluate and act you choose to continue condemnation. The management of ERHC quadrupled the number of outstanding shares over the last 1.5+ years, yet the share price wasn't divided by 4, it was divided by 400! Those numbers are real. Is there still risk? Yes. Is this still a gamble? Yes. Are the shares of ERHC Energy on sale, and I mean at fire sale prices? I think yes.
I can't make you see or understand this sale any more than you can make me ignore the value that I see.
For just 1% of your original investment you can increase your ownership of the company to ten times more than you originally bought.
That addresses middy's point that the potential isn't as high as the JDZ days, etc. The cost to significantly increase your ownership is minimal.
Commercial oil in Kenya means a market cap of $200-800M. I won't predict how many shares will be sold to the "strategic investor" or if that transaction will ever occur so I will use current shares outstanding and tell you that that market cap range means a share price between $5-$25.
For those that can power wash the doom and gloom off of this stock there is massive potential. (and to Middy, yes, massive risk).
Oh boy, that order is going to HURT if the strategic investor is Blackrock with an eight digit infusion of cash.
I don't know anything other than what Ntephe has told us... but Blackrock fits the strategic investor alluded too.
Dig for info. Think about that info. Re-evaluate your position as it relates to your overall investment. Then act.
I'm not going to fill in the blanks for you, and I won't recommend what action you take, but I will give you a small example:
Let's assume you bought 75,000 shares at $0.50 in July of 2006. You had $37,500 invested and owned 0.01% of the company. For every billion dollars in discovery value, you laid claim to $100,000. Based on estimates back then, success in the JDZ would make you a millionaire!
But now, because of the dilution and reverse split you have 750 shares and only own 0.0025% of the company... you've been obliterated, right?
That's new information. What can you do with that information? Because of my background, the first thing that comes to mind is "math".
How can I get my piece of the pie back to where it was? The answer is: Now there are 30,000,000 shares outstanding now, to own 0.01% again, which was your original position, you need to own 3000 shares. That makes sense because the share count quadrupled as they diluted. That's a really, really bad thing, but only if you don't ACT. How can you get from 750 shares to 3000 shares, restoring your piece of the pie? You buy 2,250 shares.
That will cost you $281 dollars. So here is the decision facing you... do you abandon your $37,500 investment and accept the crumbs dilution will leave you with, or do you defend your investment and throw another 300 bucks at it "just in case" they find oil?
$300 isn't a lot to defend a $37,500 investment. It has been coined "dilution insurance" buy some, and mocked as "delusion insurance" by others. I tend to lean toward the former on this... it's such a tiny amount of money given the original price most paid, why not? If they do hit oil the "delusion insurance" label is going to look pretty short sighted and down right stupid.
That little piece of "information" could be transformational in your outcome from all of this, and the CEO didn't have to, nor was he required to, explain it to you.
There are dozens of other pieces of information that can and will affect each persons outcome depending on what they do with them.
Investing is extremely interactive and requires continuous effort and does not come with an instruction manual. It's *your* money, why empower, or in this case demand, that ANY CEO to tell you what you should do with it?
Was this another 180? Or maybe it was a dizzying 720?
I did!
And you might. 180's are better than the repetitious skipping record mainly heard here. A 180 show's the ability to reconsider ones position as new information becomes available and is factored in to mix.
"The triple zero buyers will grasp at any pathetic defense to get the sp up a penny or so !!"
This doesn't make sense to me. Wouldn't buyers be trying to lower the price they have to pay?
"buyers 'grasping at any pathetic defense to get the share price up'"
I'll let everyone draw their own conclusion.
Have you sat down and done the math?
"I now have 10,500 shares. Will I ever brake even. The answer is NO. [...] I am 83 years old and I don't expect to see even 5 percent of my investment back."
A successful well in just 2 months *could* push the share price to $10 or more. You would see all of your investment back and more.
It's been a tough ride, brutal actually, but success in Kenya will restore nearly all losses, and a JDZ revival? Who knows?
"Bad management"
This is and always has been a roulette wheel gamble on finding oil. Had the JDZ produced just 10% of the estimated oil none of the last 6 years would have been "bad management".
They drilled, and supposedly missed, although there are rumblings of a resurgence in the JDZ. And they are less than two months from drilling again, this time in Kenya.
I imagine it would be a fun ride to learn that the JDZ is attracting renewed attention just as Kenya drilling was under way.
Management, impressive or lacking, is why you are here and have the chance to take that ride.
It may be a bet on "double zero green", but it is still a chance... for a very big win.
I don't think many would argue that disclosure has been... I'll choose "painfully lacking" as my description. HOWEVER, if people choose to hold this microscopic company with no revenue to the requirements of Sarbanes-Oxley then they should just lock the doors and file for bankruptcy because they don't have the staff or funds to meet that level of disclosure.
Offor and crew missed the target completely when they didn't book a nice gained when this traded near a reverse split adjusted $100 per share... and now those holding a grudge are trying to finish it off.
"Amazing that anyone could possibly find a grounds to defend this pathetic excuse for a management!"
And yet this management is defended every day by people that continue to support them by deciding to hold... which is a vote of confidence in the direction management is taking.
Not a clue. Whatever was learned from the 5 JDZ wells has been a very closely guarded secret and could have significant value.
There are two scenarios where I can see an outright sale. A resurgence in the JDZ, meaning things are better than we thought, or a "Hail Mary" get-whatever-we-can-get and turn out the lights.
Trying to suggest *ANY* numbers for either scenario would be foolish, IMO.
$1,170,000 was added to the market cap just today!
I wish you could too! Sorry for busting your beans like that. It was meant to be more funny than it came across. I think you got it though.
Will you back that "guarantee" by buying all of my shares for $10 each right here, right now?
I didn't think so.
I mean, $10 per share is a bargain to what this will trade for if oil is found, effectively derisking the entire Kenyan block.
So if we're guaranteed, my offer is a great deal!
Not very guaranteed now, is it?
$3-$5 while drilling. $10-$20 if they hit.
$3-$5 while drilling assumes a cash influx from the strategic investor.
That's the goal.
Not as many as you want people to think, IMO.
The problem here is that you place a value of $0.00 on the JDZ even though Sinopec has NEVER released a comprehensive report... or uttered so much as a word for that matter.
Okay fine, let's call the JDZ a zero. A minimally commercial find in Kenya would still propel ERHC's market cap into the hundreds of millions.
You asked, "how many shares will be outstanding when he is done?"
The only person that can answer that is the strategic investor.
If they are the conservative sort, which is unlikely given the pool they are fishing in... they will ask for as many shares as they can get, and hope to make a profit.
If they are the gambling sort, which is likely given the pool they are fishing in... they won't be so demanding for fear someone else will offer more, and they will miss out on a big score.
You basically asked a question that nobody on a message board can answer... only the players can answer your question, and legally they can't do that.
No more posts for me. I'm too ticked off right now.
If the CEO was worth a chit the interview would NOT be done at a pay for view site.
I mean geez, it's not like ERHC needs to attract new investors or anything!
:-\
Stupid is as stupid does.
Same as it ever was...
Same as it ever was.
Buyers might fall all over themselves trying to buy a company with several million in the bank (thanks to the strategic investor), a drill bit in the ground, and oil screaming north from a Russian created "event" designed to drive oil up because their country is on the verge of collapse with oil this low.
I'll buy you a box of popcorn and we can watch the show together.
"They" are shareholders now... times have changed.
Any sale less than the market cap was BEFORE they willfully destroy it would create a scandal and legal action, IMO.
After all of the hoops the supposed "strategic investor" has them jumping through I think it's reasonable to expect a healthy cash infusion to the balance sheet prior to drilling. If that happens, how do you place a value on the company? You don't because you can't.
ERHC was worth $90M before the dilution started and drilling was no where in sight. With a cash infusion and dilution off the table and drilling single digit weeks away... $200M as spudding occurs is plausible. Concurrent action on other properties and who
s knows?
It will be priced somewhere between optimism and greed. Pick your own numbers.
With Ntephe and Odobulu holding roughly 140M shares I think the surprise will be to the upside, I just can't decide 'to the upside" of WHAT?!?!
I agree that a deal, IMO the sale of the company, is where this is headed. I fear we will not be remotely happy with the price.
If the sale goes to a known and long existing entity, I'll have to live with it. If the sale goes to NGAR or some other undefinable entity, that would suggest the assets are being stolen from us and would have to be challenged.
My preference is drill, find commercial, and then sell. But if they know something we don't and the sale price is far, far about this toilet that THEY deposited us in, then fine.
Can you rephrase this? I don't understand what you are saying/asking:
"SOMEBODY has to own those shares, right? They were sold by which % by the noteholders approximately, again?"
"How about management being transparent and telling us what the shells are for. Is that too much to ask?"
If the new listing has nothing to do with ERHC or it's shareholders, then yes.
Why press the panic button before you have a clue what the shell was set up for? It may be PN and SO's next adventure that they plan on funding with their profits from the sale of ERHC.
They have said, repeatedly, that this company in whole is up for grabs. The less ERHC sells for, the less they have for their new venture.
Contrary to almost everything posted on this safe haven, their interests may be very closely aligned with ours for a change.
You have a *very* good memory. I had forgotten Rapp. Circa March 2001 SEC filing I believe.
globaloil, this entire arguement is a joke:
"How ERHC Energy responds to any possible offer from RAP.P is not subject to the provisions of the RAP.P prospectus. Any buyout of ERHC would require shareholder approval from a majority of the ERHE shareholders. That means that one of your shares carries the same weight as anyone else's share. Your unwitting theft speculation ends there. Period."
The entity "NGAR" IS ERHC MANAGEMENT. Any representation otherwise is an attempt to hide the truth.
"Any buyout of ERHC would require shareholder approval from a majority of the ERHE shareholders"
So who are the majority? 2.25 billion shares were flooded onto the market last year and a large number of them have not been sold, so who has them? Offor is down to 13%, PN and SO own just under 5%, so who are these shareholders that RECIEVED these billions of shares upon conversion? Why no mandated disclosure of more than 5% ownership?
Is it Sinopec? Are they finally going to tell the world the results of the 5 JDZ wells?
KNOW THIS: the retail market did NOT buy billions of shares of a Nigerian controlled company ahead of a 1 for 100 reverse split. That is exactly what did NOT happen...
I just hope that what really did happen doesn't land this thing in court for a decade or longer. There is a stench that is overpowering with what is going on.
E*trade's reply...
It seems all is normal with this split, contrary to how it's being described by some.
"Dear Mr. [tryoty],
Thank you for your message regarding ERHC Energy .
ERHC is performing a 1 for 100 reverse stock split. When a company does a reverse stock split, your current shares are cancelled and new shares are issued. We have been working with the transfer agent and are currently awaiting the new shares to be delivered. The shares will be updated to your account promptly once received. For over-the-counter (OTC) stocks, delivery usually occurs within 10 to 14 business days.
If you have additional questions, please feel free to respond to this message or contact our Customer Service team at 1-800-387-2331 (+1 678-624-6210). Our representatives are available 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
Sincerely,
Jim Briscoe
Mon-Fri 5:45am to 2:30pm MST
1-800-ETRADE-1 (1-800-387-2331)
Financial Services Representative
E*TRADE Securities LLC"
sideeki, that PM isn't helping the situation, but LOL! You're right.
I thinks it's pretty clear that Ntephe and Odobulu were using ERHC's mailing address and likely their office space to conduct business for the benefit of NGAR while being paid by ERHC Energy.
Dan Keeney, DPKPR has no problem trying to cover that up. That tells you a lot about him. I had respect for him in the beginning, but he showed his true colors over time. No morals at all. Absolutely no sense of right and wrong. He'll defend anything for a buck.
My advice to everyone, if you are a shareholder and their conduit to you is Dan Keeney or his company DPKPR... run. Run away. Run as fast as you can.
His role in this world is to facilitate corporate deception at the expense of shareholders.
I know everyone has to make a living, but geez, don't we have to look in the mirror every day too?
Same here. I asked them how long it might take... waiting for an answer.
All of your post can be debated other than the last line.
Being stupid is not a criminal offense.
Smarter than me. I need to shut up.