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Guessing about 2.25 for the fourth quarter - 800 or so and 1.4 or so
If any officers of the company care enough to read this board why don’t you care enough to buy shares of the company?
Samsa sounds like you have reviewed the bylaws. What percentage of shares is required for shareholders to require the board to call a special meeting.
We might be able to organize to meet this minimum and require the board to call a meeting to discuss the issues we are all so frustrated about.
Question is are they still selling the atm
What are thoughts on the downward pressure
Still selling atm
New buyer shorting
Thanks. That’s helpful
Do you think they will be able to partner any of the other generics either approved or not.
That doesn’t make sense to me. What is there to advertise. Isn’t this all sold through wholesalers.
Also aren’t costs reimbursed before the profit split
What am I missing. It seems like a no lose proposition for a partner
Agree. Also would like to know why we are not being given updates on the fdas responses to the generics
Wonder if there is any chance they can hire a couple sales reps to try to get these out there to some of the big players
It’s not like mnk is making huge penetration and we are giving up a significant portion of the revenue
Another thing I don’t understand is why a partner would not be interested. It’s all upside for them
At least 70% of the profit as we have surmised
Cost will likely be whatever the deductible is. We of course do not know that like almost everything else with the company
That’s what I used to think. Cannot believe they both sit. What are they waiting for. It should be priority number 1
It’s like they don’t give a crap about the generics and keep putting energy and money into resixta
I have no confidence that they will be able to monetize rexista
What do u think the odds are they will partner either or both keppra and glucho
Those lawsuits should be covered by insurance. Issue is how much the deductible is
Anyone have any thoughts why trupharma has such a higher market share. It was approved around the same time as mnk. Is it that much better.
Also does anyone have any insight on what they are thinking with gluco and keppra
5% not 2.5 based on the following
Per company 15 and 30 generate about 130m. Per company it captured about 30% of this market. That is 39 mil
Rev for prior year was about 2.2. 5% of 39 is close to 2m. Tough to generate that much with 2’.5%
I agree with your overall numbers. I think where we differ is split vs cost plus. Cost plus is minimal. If they shipped another round last quarter there was probably around 60k in revenue from the plus. That means 400k from the split. I agree with focalin at 750 or so
Not following your numbers how are you accounting for 376 cost of good as revenue. The only thing that would be accounted as revenue is the plus.
Pretty sure cost plus was accounted for during second quarter. If split was only 20% can’t see how they earned 1.2 based on symphony numbers. Also I believe mnks cost is likely higher initially in ramping up sales process
Focalin share of 3 q was likely no greater than 800k
Pretty sure it is closer to 30
For what it is worth based on past numbers it seems like a close estimate is to take 80% of sales and the 5% for focalin and 30% for seroquel.
Fabuis. Thank you so much
You and Fred have been 100 times more helpful to shareholders than management.
Thanks Fabius. Is that for just xr
Fabius or Fred
Thanks so much for posting the weekly focalin and seroquel numbers for par and mnk
Looking forward to seeing this weeks
How much of the overhang from the first offering do you think remains?
Thanks. Appreciate it if you share your insights as time moves forward.
Please share what you have learned from the private placement folks
Better yet. See if you can schedule an in person meeting with shareholders who can make it and for those who can’t allow for them to join by phone or WEBEX
Has anyone ever asked patience why they do not disclose fda responses on the andas. They have an sec requirement to disclose material information
For that matter has anyone asked patience to provide an update on each and every ANDA. I think that is a minimum the company owes shareholders
Any other insight on those two ANDAs
Potential patent issues
What about ranexa. Isn’t an fda response due this year
Pretty sure the cancellation date for pristiq and lamictal is dec 31 of 18. The dec 31 17 was for seroquel I believe
Question on lamictal and pristiq is do we have patent issues
Fabius or Fred
Please keep the numbers coming every Friday. The potential generic revenue is the only thing keeping me in this now. I think the nda development without a partner is like this throwing money out the window.
Would really like to see them spin off the nda portion of the business keep generics as primary and significantly reduce expenses. Salvage what you can. The current business model is not working
Seems to me with their limited resources the best use of the funds is to establish proof of concept for PODras and then heavily promote it if it is successful. Can’t help but think that continuing to sink money into rexista is worthless endeavor. There is likely a reason it is not partnered. Get generics generating cash flow and sell the company
Thanks for the response.
Was wondering about ir subscribers switching to cr now that cr has gone generic. Have to believe there would have been more cr subscribers but for the fact that it only recently went generic
Looks like focalin ir was never a huge market. Not sure that is a good comparison
Any thoughts about seroquel ir to cr. The ir market is huge. 20 percent of that market could be another 1b in sales
Thoughts on how to model this
Long time owner - first time poster here.
Thinking that the splits are 5% and 30%.
I think it was mentioned at one of the presentations that upon full commercialization of focalin the royalties could be as high as 8M. That would mean 20% of market capture of an 800M market. If split was 2.5% it would mean Par would have to capture 40% of the market and no way that could be envisioned.
5% is also consistent with the recent quarterly results. That would mean around 800,000 of focalin revenue based on 17M in quarterly sales. BTW I think the split during 25 and 35 exclusivity was 10%. I remember reading it is higher during exclusivity.
400,000 would then be from Seroquel. quarterly sales were 1.7M - take out say 500 for MNK costs and we have 1.2M - 30% is 400 roughly. The cost plus was accounted for I believe last quarter.
One question I have is we know future years will erode as more competitors hit the market. But what about capturing the immediate release market - That is a 6B a year market. I have to believe now that CR has gone generic the IR subscribers will begin switching. It will be interesting to keep an eye on that market as the months go by.
Fred - The symphony numbers are invaluable. Please keep them coming. Please also post the weekly focalin numbers. It will be helpful to keep an eye on those.
Having access to those numbers allows us to make more informed decisions. Too bad we need to get them through posters rather than the company.