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If you don't want people to flame you, then don't mislead with the data. They met this timeline, as you and I have discussed previously on this board.
As I said then - they met the timeline - if only just.
June +3 = September which was when the initial Tox study started.
Stay truthful - or I'll stop replying.
Yes, the PR yesterday did say "The Company is performing certain scale up studies for manufacturing FluCide at its current facility."
But the timelines are still possible (I can't say how realistic, since I don't have that inside info).
To speculate, let's say they are wrapping up the scale-up studies by the end of this year. That leaves them 3 months to manufacture and batch release materials (drug product) to the GLP study.
This seems entirely possible. If it takes ~ 1 week to produce a batch and maybe 2 weeks to test and characterize the batch for release to the study, that means ~ 1 month per batch. And these batches would much bigger than the those made in the bench top reactors they used for the non-GLP study.
But they would surely be doing some of this work in parallel. So they could conceivably produce many batches within that 3 months time. And they would maybe need just a week or two to finalize the protocol with the analytical results for each batch in the study protocol (the rest of the protocol would be completed long before, waiting only on the insertion of the batch data).
So the timelines seem feasible, if a little aggressive.
I can't fault them for being aggressive. Flu sufferers, shareholders and the investment community are waiting for them to finally deliver now that they have momentum. And some of the Flu sufferers will be waiting with their lives.
Timelines are now provided by the company! No need to estimate anymore.
Leifsmith provided the link to today's webcast in post 77261.
I provided a summary of the timelines from the webcast in post 77281.
However, if you are asking to better understand the technology, I think BK had mentioned that they can turn around a batch in about a week? But I am thinking this may not be the longest lead time.
I think that the requirements for batch release testing and characterization to assure consistent quality would likely take longer than manufacturing (in chemical reactors) and processing.
Depending on what is required these can individually take hours, to days, to weeks depending on the types of testing and the sample sizes and quantities and throughput and capacity in the labs.
Leifsmith's post 77261 has link to webcast copy of Dr. Seymour's presentation at the LD Micro VI conference in LA today.
Here are 2014 Goals for NNVC from Dr. Seymour's presentation at the LD Micro VI conference in LA, Dec. 3, 2013 (as transcribed by me - I couldn't copy it).
And good points, Puffer and Penguin! (Ha Ha - together sounds like a fun holiday show!)
If NNVC holds as well to this as they have with goals over the last year (which was also well presented on the same slide), 2014 should be a very good year.
2014 Goals
1. Initiate GLP FluCide toxicology studies (Q1)
2. Complete new pilot cGMP manufacturing plant (Q1)
3. Initiate FDA IND-required influenza studies at Lovelace and PHE including H7N9 (Q1)
4. Initiate final preclinical HIV study for candidate election (Q1)
5. Initiate new animal studies on ocular herpes (Q1)
6. Commission new pilot cGMP manufacturing plant (Q2)
7. Report results of H7N9 and MERS studies at both institutions (Lovelace and PHE) (Q2)
8. Sign Phase I/IIa human study contracts (Q2)
9. Report FluCide toxicology results (Q3)
10. File FluCide IND with both FDA and European Medicines Agency (EMA) (Q3-Q4)
11. Begin Human Trials of FluCide (Q4 or Q1 2015)*
*In Q&A Dr. Seymour also commented on Compassionate/Emergency Use Exemption that may allow earlier use of FluCide in people with life-threatening illness for where no other viable treatment is available. This would only be possible after animal studies (Tox #1/9 or PD #3 or both?) were completed.
One clarification to make your strong, valid, logical points even stronger, Zinc.
Well - the timing of my post could have been better with a 4.5% drop today to $23.69.
There is some volatility with this stock - I consider it a speculative stock.
But the drop is still well within trend and the trend still looks promising.
Industry folks will definitely understand the significance of these latest results, Liefsmith!
This "lull" in the stock price may be one of the most opportune times to take advantage of the opportunity in NNVC.
Some may quibble over the fact that these Tox results…
1. were not GLP Tox for IND submission
2. were not produced by an entirely independent lab
3. did not include full Pharmacodynamics (PD or dose response efficacy studies) results
in addition to the Pharmacokinetics (PK - ADME)
4. do not guarantee that human testing will be as successful
All true…
But this why (IMHO) now may be one of the best times to get in (or buy more) before the stock price starts running away. [As for myself, I am now fully invested].
With these successful Tox results up to the Max Feasible Dose, the technology risks are much lower from here on out.
1. This non-GLP study included the Maximum Feasible Dose, and no higher dose will be tested in the GLP study. Larger sample sizes, more species (large animals) and more thorough documentation (GLP) will be the only differences. The GLP study could not be teed up better to repeat the successful results found in this non-GLP study.
2. True, this wasn't an entirely independent lab, but I think the stakes are too high for KARD to risk its reputation by falsifying or misrepresenting results, especially when the results will be confirmed/disputed within months. In addition, the plan was to do this testing at BASI, but was done at KARD to meet the timelines to get the study done sooner.
3. PK-ADME will be confirmed in the GLP Tox study. PD will be confirmed separately. Previous PD efficacy studies have already proven out the technology. The remaining work asked for by the FDA is likely quantifying the dose response to help determine dose(s) for the clinical studies. Not a further risk, just characterization.
4. As pointed out often by NNVC and here on this board, the nanoviricides work against the virus in the bloodstream with no need for activation through metabolism in the liver or entry into cells or changes to biochemical pathways to achieve its mechanism of action. This means an enormous reduction in the risk, since animal results will almost certainly translate to human clinical results.
One last point, there has definitely been an significant uptick in MEANINGFUL, SUBSTANTIVE PRs from NNVC in the last year. It may have taken a while for the promise of the company to match the promise of the technology. But there has been tremendous progress with much more lined up to occur in the next year…
- GLP Toxicity Studies with Bioanalytical Systems, Inc (BASI)
- PD Studies on IND-enabling efficacy studies with Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute
- Completion/validation of cGMP facility for production of FluCide product for human clinical studies
- Very possible IND submission this coming year (2014), with potential for FDA fast track regulatory pathway(s)
- Testing of FluCide against H7N9 and MERS-CoV at Public Health England (PHE)
- Further testing to move DengueCide to clinical trials now that it has Orphan status in US and EU
- Potential further development of additional drug candidates for oral FluCide, HIV, Herpes, EKC, Hepatitis C, Ebola, etc. (although NNVC has stated they are focusing efforts on FluCides and DengueCide - and rightly so).
[Edit] - Oh, and all this with no anticipated need for additional funding at least through completion of FluCide clinical trials.
Been a great stock - more during holidays?
Up 75% on my initial investment at end of March, 2013 as a long-term spec holding.
Still looks like a great risk/reward opportunity with very high growth and further upside possible from US holiday sales of GoPro Hi Res, Hi Speed, Small Form sports cameras using their fast, energy efficient SoC (System on Chip) architecture.
See nice summary from Seeking Alpha - Alex Behrens at the link below.
Link: ambarella-benefits-from-reliable-revenue-growing-opportunities
Thanks, Echo - Wishing you and yours the best as well - and NNVC for everyone here!
Yes, we're waiting for the remaining preliminary Tox results "shortly" for a while now. I didn't think they'd release it in the holiday shortened week where it would go unnoticed. (I think that may be a good sign that the results are favorable.) So there should be a good chance for a PR on Monday. That would be a nice Thanksgiving/Christmas present!
We're also waiting on further progress on the plans for testing H7N9 and MERS-CoV at Public Health England which would also be a nice gift.
Also - probably in H1 of the new year (my guess)- there will be forthcoming plans for further DengueCide development.
Of course, only the first and third are within NNVC control, the second depends on PHE.
Either of the first 2 in December would be great!
Continuing steady progress would not only be good news for stockholders, but also the many potential future victims of these viral agents.
Many of the long-term NNVC holders on the board here have confirmed the "new" shareholder lawsuit is related to earlier legal actions by the same party covered in multiple previous NNVC 10-K and 10-Q regulatory filings.
Since I didn't see excerpts posted previously, I've posted the excerpted "Legal Proceedings" section of the most recent Q3 10-Q filing below (first reported publicly in the Annual Report 10-K released Sept 30 - nearly 2 months ago). Previous legal actions by the same party are covered in this (Q3) 10-Q, the recent 10-K and earlier 10-Qs. All the regulatory filings for NNVC are provided on their website http://nanoviricides.com/secfiling.html.
In the excerpt below, I've highlighted in red the most recent complaint, filed in the Colorado District Court (maybe because they didn't get anywhere in previous suits in Nevada?). I've marked in bold italics the company's position - that "no facts have been submitted to support such claim" and "Management has determined that such claims are specious" and "no accrual has been made in relation to this litigation" indicating the company does not deem it warranted to set aside funds to cover costs for litigation or settlement.
I realize that although the company denies the lawsuit has merit, that doesn't mean the company is right. However, the fact that previous, very similar lawsuits by the same party have only resulted in the company having to release statutory public information seems to me (in my admittedly inexpert opinion) to indicate this lawsuit will end up in a very similar way.
There have been plenty of other posts and links on the many mistakes in the internet reports (journalism?!?) and the very odd reports on the background of the reporter, so no need to go further into that.
Thanks INH! You've provided a lot more clarity, even if we don't have all the details yet (who, and why the increase in the last quarter?).
IMPORTANT TAKEAWAY (IMHO)
The company does NOT invest in derivatives, and the losses are on paper only due to stock options/warrants/preferred shares being redeemed/converted.
Why the bean counters perversely (to a layman) call those "derivatives" in a document meant to communicate to common stockholders (the reason for the filing regulations) is beyond me.
BOTTOM LINE (IMHO)
The recent stock price is NOT likely attributable to this line item paper loss in the Q3 10-Q filing because:
- there was a delay of days from the data release to the stock drop
- and there was no further dilution of stock not already publicly disclosed during the reverse split and previous regulatory filings.
SILVER LINING
At least I've taken the opportunity to accumulate more NNVC shares bit by bit as the price drops. I think the only way to get burned is poor preliminary Toxicity results - not impossible, but I still like the favorable odds.
Re: Can anyone help a financial-novice like me understand this on "non-cash" Derivatives?
Link: Post 76833
Although there have been some posts on this I didn't see when I wrote this (I came back to finish writing after those posts), we could still use more insights into the derivatives question. Thanks to I Need Help and KMBJN for their insights. It does look like it might be non-cash financial accounting for sales of warrants, options, or some such.
It would be great to get confirmation (or correction) and if confirmed whether we could find out who sold?
Thanks!
Can anyone help a financial-novice like me understand this?
Thanks, FN, but what "derivatives losses" are referred to? Maybe you or one of the financial gurus on the board can help me (and likely others on the board) understand?
LINK from Forzanano post: NanoViricides' losses increase as it develops flu drugs, 11/18/2013
Please Docs! another PR - the natives are getting restless!
The dark side of the Orphan Drug Act.
From Nick's posts and posts from those who have met and interacted with the Docs at NNVC, it doesn't sound like these extortion-type practices would even cross their minds for DengueCide orphan drug marketing (sorry to even put them both in the same sentence). The level of amorality of Big Pharma with these levels of up charges and profit margins in these cases is unconscionable. Reasonable profit is good and necessary, but these BP practices cannot be defended IMHO. At least good people stepped in to help this family out - even though BP didn't.
Minneapolis StarTribune, Nov. 16, 2013, Drug Companies Profit from Orphan Drugs, Article by: Michael J. Berens and Ken Armstrong , Seattle Times
Drug companies profit from orphan drugs
Her vision failed first. Then she fell asleep at school from inexplicable fatigue. Even walking proved difficult, often impossible, as she knocked into furniture and walls. It was like an electrical switch in her body toggled without warning. Some days she was in control, most she was not. Specialists were stumped.
Article by: Michael J. Berens and Ken Armstrong , Seattle Times
Updated: November 16, 2013 - 6:33 PM
Her vision failed first. Then she fell asleep at school from inexplicable fatigue. Even walking proved difficult, often impossible, as she knocked into furniture and walls. It was like an electrical switch in her body toggled without warning. Some days she was in control, most she was not. Specialists were stumped.
It took three months before a general practitioner detected the shadowy, cancerous tumor that clung to 10-year-old Violet O’Dell’s brain.
In the fall of 2011, a cancer physician at Seattle Children’s Hospital met with Violet. He crouched, to talk eye to eye. And he told her: The rare, inoperable malignancy struck just a few hundred children each year. Most died within a year. None survived.
But doctors could offer this: An “orphan drug” — one approved for a rare disease — might slow the cancer’s growth. With the drug, Avastin, Violet might live an extra month, maybe longer. The drug cost up to $50,000.
“How much would you pay to have extra time with your dying child?” Violet’s mother, Jessica O’Dell, asks. “We don’t make a lot of money. We knew we’d lose our home, everything we own.”
For the O’Dell family, the drug’s cost exceeded their annual income. For Genentech, the San Francisco-based company that manufactures Avastin, the drug brings in $3 billion a year.
The O’Dells’ conundrum — a lot of money for a little time — highlights the pharmaceutical industry’s unchecked profiteering from rare diseases.
Fastest growing sector of U.S. drug system
Thirty years ago, Congress passed the Orphan Drug Act as a way to lure pharmaceutical companies to develop drugs for rare diseases that had been “orphaned” — abandoned or ignored because they were unprofitable. The hope was that drugmakers would break even or post modest profits.
The act paid off, with hundreds of new drugs. But over the years, its good intentions have been subverted by the pharmaceutical industry, which has increasingly found ways to exploit this once-obscure health care niche, transforming it into a multibillion-dollar enterprise.
The law gave drugmakers financial incentives: market exclusivity for seven years, tax breaks and abbreviated testing. The freedom from competition — coupled with the ability of drugmakers to price drugs however they want — has propelled the treating of rare diseases into the fastest growing sector of the U.S. prescription drug system.
Drugs for rare diseases commonly begin in the six figures for a year of treatment. This year, one reached $440,000.
The gray area of “off-label” drug use
The law defines a rare disease as one that affects fewer than 200,000 U.S. patients a year. Most afflict fewer than 6,000, said the National Institutes of Health. But collectively, they affect an estimated 25 million Americans — about 1 in 12 people.
By law, pharmaceutical companies can market a drug only for its approved use. However, doctors can prescribe drugs, orphan or otherwise, in whatever way they choose, which is known as going “off-label.” It’s in this regulatory gray area that drugs officially approved for a few hundred patients can be sold to tens of thousands more.
While off-label prescriptions benefit many patients and provide freedom of choice for doctors, the practice comes with risks. According to a Seattle Times analysis of adverse-event reports, studies and enforcement records, thousands of preventable injuries and early deaths have occurred when orphan drugs have been prescribed for unlicensed use.
When Violet received her diagnosis in September 2011, she’d been rushed from the family’s seven-acre farm in Sequim to Seattle Children’s. Chemotherapy began two days later for brainstem glioma, located where the brain and spinal cord connect. Cancerous tentacles intertwined with healthy tissue, making it impossible to remove the tumor.
Doctors supplemented chemotherapy with Avastin, because clinical trials had shown the drug could ease symptoms and prolong life. By late spring of 2012, treatment had stunted Violet’s tumor. But a month later, the tumor spread across her brain.
The O’Dells received a miracle, just not the one they most wanted. All their medical expenses not covered by insurance were paid through a program at Seattle Children’s for uncompensated care. A private charity made their mortgage payments. In Sequim, businesses and a school staged fundraisers.
“It was unbelievable,” Jessica O’Dell says. “We thought we’d lose everything. So many people opened their hearts.”
In October 2012, Violet died in her sleep at home, surrounded by family.
Avastin, the drug that was supposed to help Violet live longer, was studied in at least 400 clinical trials over 16 years. But it wasn’t until this year that a trial with more than 600 patients — the drug’s first double-blind study for newly diagnosed brain cancer — found no difference in survival between those patients who got the drug and those given a placebo.
Great stuff again, KMBJN! Good to know about the larger kidney filtration pore size. Interesting though that a 22nm diameter pore size means that development of anything larger than the FluCide 19-21nm micelle size will need to be broken down/cleaved to be filtered out in the kidneys.
Regarding biodistribution, we may not get much of a read from the Tox studies. Since PEG is so common in the environmental, the levels may not be differentiated between the control and test animals. We will see.
Also, regarding "not going into the cell", I think this point was being made to highlight the the mechanism of action takes place in the blood and to distinguish it from Tamiflu which must enter the cell to prevent the virus from releasing out of the cell. Also, as Cides are active as injected into the blood, it also highlights that it does not need to be metabolized to the active agent in the liver as is the case with many drugs.
But your point is well taken - just as the micelles can pass through the semi-permeable membranes in the kidneys, they can also pass through some capillary beds into cells and organs and the lymphatic system. Fortunately, the Cides are made up of materials demonstrated in the literature to be of low toxicity. We should see very shortly if this is borne out by the preliminary Tox study. My bet is yes.
ZF, your points are well taken (and a good starting off point for me to try to speculate to fill in the blanks on the technology that I have been starting to think about).
BK, I really appreciate that you can provide some of this background from all your time following the company, the conferences you've attended and the interactions you've had!
These points about the drug product's consistency will go a long way to addressing some of the many questions NNVC will likely get from CDER as they review the CMC sections of their IND and NDA submissions. Consistency within and between batches is one of the key things they look for.
From a technical standpoint, I am sure NNVC had to go out and buy some expensive liquid particle counters to be able to characterize the size distribution of 20nm particles! That is specialized equipment for particles so small. Typically this is a dynamic light scattering measurement and particles that small scatter very little light and the detectors need to be very sensitive.
I don't know, so I am curious how they would go about supporting that the ligands sticking out from the micelles. Certainly there could be a chemistry rationale as the Sialic acid mimics are much less non-polar than the pendant fatty acids and so should be oriented outside the micelle in aqueous solution (blood). But I am not sure how they would measure that if FDA asked. Maybe if you know, that would be great to share.
Clarification of less than clear point from my previous post (in red below):
… What threw me off were the following quotes from the mini review in the DMD reference.
PEGylated Proteins: Evaluation of Their Safety in the Absence of Definitive Metabolism Studies, DMD, Rob Webster, Eric Didier, Philip Harris, Ned Siegel, Jeanne Stadler, Lorraine Tilbury, and Dennis Smith
It states that "from these studies, it is clear that for molecular weights up to and including 190,000, urinary excretion of PEG is likely to be the major route of elimination, with hepatobiliary clearance representing a minor pathway." It also discusses fewer metabolites and higher urinary excretion for higher MW PEG. This appeared at first to be inconsistent with the physical limitations of glomerular filtration of around 3-8nm. From your NCBI reference, PEG with MW ~30 kD corresponds to ~6nm diameter. So how does 190 kD PEG (~6x that volume which is ~2x that diameter, or about 12nm) get filtered out and removed by the kidneys?
The only possibility is the one you offered and quoted from Dr. Seymour. It has to be broken down into smaller pieces before urinary excretion. As to the apparent contradiction, my hypothesis is that the reason the DMD mini review sources say larger MW PEG is principally removed by urinary excretion with negligible metabolism is that the relative quantities of metabolic breakdown products (diacid and hydroxyl acid metabolites of PEG) are negligible in comparison to the larger quantities of mostly intact, cleaved portions of large oligomers/polymers of PEG measured in the urine. I think (IMHO) that this would explain the apparent contradiction.
Thanks for providing another likely tradeoff with larger micelles and longer residence times I hadn't considered - the surface area-to-volume ratio reducing receptor exposure and potential efficacy.
I also share your concern about developing too large of micelles to go beyond more than ~1month prophylactic dosing regimen. In addition to the points you raised, there would also be:
1. More uncertainty and more testing regarding potential build-up of the viricides in your system over long periods of dosing (unmatched dosing and elimination of the drug over long-term use).
2. Less of a safety margin with the size of the micelles and the number injected and embolic effects. Despite the solubility of the micelles, this is still an injection of embolic material. The overall dose should ideally be safe and compatible so that it can be injected over a short duration rather than require a longer duration infusion to avoid any embolic effects of bolus dosing.
3. More variability and side reactions in the polymer chemistry. In general, the larger the polymer, the more polydisperse the molecular weight and the more chances of side reactions such as cross-linking that can potentially affect the consistency (CMC requirements) and efficacy (at a molecular level) of the drug product.
These concerns may be upcoming challenges to the development of HIVCide and others where longer residence times are desired when the virus can remain hidden within cells for long periods of time.
The challenges wouldn't be insurmountable, but are further reasons to go after the "low hanging fruit, first" as you have often rightly pointed out.
I stand corrected on prophylactic residence times. Excellent summary and refs BTW! Thank you. I finally had a chance to review it this weekend. BK also set the record straight from his notes from presentations.
The key as you said is in the size of the nanoviricide micelles. The micelles need to be small enough to be filtered out in the kidneys. But they are ~20-30nm (ref your and BK posts). And the effective pore size on the glomerular wall can vary from 3-8nm - not big enough to allow filtration and urinary excretion.
What threw me off were the following quotes from the mini review in the DMD reference.
PEGylated Proteins: Evaluation of Their Safety in the Absence of Definitive Metabolism Studies, DMD, Rob Webster, Eric Didier, Philip Harris, Ned Siegel, Jeanne Stadler, Lorraine Tilbury, and Dennis Smith
It states that "from these studies, it is clear that for molecular weights up to and including 190,000, urinary excretion of PEG is likely to be the major route of elimination, with hepatobiliary clearance representing a minor pathway." It also discusses fewer metabolites and higher urinary excretion for higher MW PEG.
This appeared at first to be inconsistent with the physical limitations of glomerular filtration of around 3-8nm. From your NCBI reference, PEG with MW ~30 kD corresponds to ~6nm diameter. So how does 190 kD PEG (6x that size) get filtered out and removed by the kidneys?
The only possibility is the one you offered and quoted from Dr. Seymour. It has to be broken down into smaller pieces before urinary excretion. As to the apparent contradiction, my hypothesis is that the reason the DMD mini review sources say larger MW PEG is principally removed by urinary excretion with negligible metabolism is that the relative quantities of metabolic breakdown products (diacid and hydroxyl acid metabolites of PEG) are negligible in comparison to the larger quantities of mostly intact, cleaved portions of large oligomers/polymers of PEG measured in the urine. I think (IMHO) that this would explain the apparent contradiction.
90% meaning I am open to putting about 10% more into NNVC if the stock goes down for what I judge to be misguided reasons.
I have already stretched a bit(not much)beyond what I would normally consider for the % of speculative stocks in my total investments - and it is because of NNVC.
I own significant (for me) amounts of 2 other stocks that I consider speculative: AMBA and PRFT.
NNVC ~80% of the total speculative part of my portfolio
AMBA ~7%
PRFT ~7%
Remainder ~5%
[Caveat - I have done some but not near the due diligence on AMBA or PRFT as NNVC]
I also hold the 2x leveraged biotech index BIB in about equal amount to NNVC. I do not consider that speculative with the favorable technology tailwinds and breadth of companies in the index - although some might. Also, this allows me to hold less total $ in this leveraged ETF allowing me to keep some cash on hand for stability and opportunities (dry powder).
Potentially good news on Tox lab results, Monday? - Hopefully!
Thanks, BK, for the information straight from primary sources!
I am trying to do the research and fill in the blanks from what is readily publicly available both from NNVC and literature references. I have watched the conferences available on the website, but there have been other conferences with no transcripts or videos.
BK - Do you know of further accessible sources (or be willing to transcribe and publish your own notes)? No pressure, but that would probably be helpful to a lot of folks here.
I think your notes on this subject are very interesting. It raises a follow on question. And I've speculated on further inferences regarding the technology. Comments welcome.
First question - how similar are the injectable vs. oral FluCide API formulations going to be? Maybe you have the answer, BK?
Even if not very different, there will likely be non-active binding agents for the oral pill (excipients). Differences in excipients and potential differences in API (active pharmaceutic agent) (e.g. - possibility of higher molecular weight), in addition to possible differences in individual and cumulative doses for prophylactic use will (I think) mean additional Tox and clinical studies. However, there may be lesser requirements if the oral drug product follows successful injectable drug product.
Technical Inferences - I think the tradeoff you related from Dr. Diwan is also interesting for technical understanding - namely, the cost of longer distribution/elimination timeframes (larger molecules) may be incrementally reduced efficacy (less micelle pliability/coverage-ability over the virus). Although I am not a synthetic polymer chemist, one possibility is that making larger micelle molecules results in cross-linking of the polymers, reducing pliability. Another possibility is that the larger molecules simply have more steric hindrance so the binding of some sections get in the way of binding by other sections of the micelle. Either of these could potentially be overcome with higher doses.
Lastly - for perspective on the board here - I just find the science involved here interesting to learn about and discuss. While I also consider this due diligence, I have not to date found any of the minor nuances and challenges I speculate on as anything more than typical challenges encountered in developing any new technology. And in fact as has been often pointed out on this board, there are many ways this technology has fewer technical and regulatory hurdles than most game-changing technologies. I continue to be nearly fully invested for my own situation for a speculative stock (~90% of what I may top out at, ~6 times more than any other individual stock I own).
I am assuming your point was tongue-in-cheek (VBG meaning "very big grin"?)
However some folks seemed to have some questions on it.
The micelles in the nanoviricides are very simple for FluCide and the others.
Based on the patents, they consist of a PEG backbone, pendant fatty acids, and short peptides.
Based on my DD covered in previous posts on elimination of PEG from the body, the micelles will be mainly excreted in the urine.
So they will end up in the sewer system, which already consists of all those components (PEG is in foods and other drug formulations, fatty acids are components of fats in foods, and peptides are portions of proteins in foods).
And they will breakdown in a relatively short time into those components.
So there are really no environmental risks associated with nanoviricides elimination into the waste stream (and much less risk than the hormones ending up in the ecosystem with weird and uncertain consequences).
There seems to be some confusion on this subject of prophylactic, long-term use and how long FluCide would remain in the body.
The Patrick Cox quote (which Changes_IV said may be old so maybe PC has corrected this?) says "this drug consists of big molecules compared with small molecule proteins. They are not metabolized and persist in the blood system for an extremely long time, perhaps months."
There is no public information (that I know of) that speaks to the molecular weight of FluCide, although I do remember Dr. Diwan (I think) mention being able to dial in optimized residence times for various viruses (e.g. - shorter for FluCide, longer for HIVCide). This would be done by optimizing molecular weight.
The larger the molecular weight of the micelles, the slower the glomerular filtration and and other routes of elimination from the body (metabolism is negligible). The reference below describes 2 PEGs that are ~90% excreted in the urine 12 hours after IV administration in humans. I believe these PEG molecules would on the same order of magnitude size as FluCide, with roughly similar residence times.
So, I am not sure how practical injectable FluCide would be for prophylaxis.
As for oral FluCide, the PRs say "The oral anti-influenza nanoviricide® is designed for use by less seriously ill out-patients and is anticipated to have the ability to prevent clinical illness in healthy individuals who have taken FluCide as prophylaxis. In addition, the Company is developing drug candidates against HIV, eye viral diseases, Herpes viruses, and Dengue viruses."
The oral route of administration results in slower adsorption and distribution of the drug into the bloodstream, spreading out the timing of the dosing. If needed, the formulation could be adjusted with a slightly higher molecular weight. These steps would extend the effective duration of each dose.
Still, I highly doubt Cox's statement that FluCide would persist in the bloodstream for months.
And, as stated by the company, the roll-out of products/indications will be injectable FluCide for hospitalized patients first, then oral FluCide for outpatients and only then oral prophylactic FluCide which will likely require longer preclinical and clinical safety studies. (Low hanging fruit first - as ZF likes to say)
DMD Minireview: PEGylated Proteins: Evaluation of Their Safety in the Absence of Definitive Metabolism Studies, Rob Webster, Eric Didier, Philip Harris, Ned Siegel, Jeanne Stadler, Lorraine Tilbury, and Dennis Smith
Hey, Echo, yes - anytime now, for Tox results from lab tests.
The announcement is coming in a little later from my estimated time frame (posts 76161, 75742). However, the company didn't release a PR for the start of this Tox round until Oct. 7 when they had been started in "late September" and waited until Oct. 21 to announce the good observational data.
So maybe they just want to fit this into the "drumbeat" of the rest of the PRs. (Which is certainly an impressive drumbeat of news from June of this year to now - see ZF's great post 75697 reiterated by C_IV post 76445).
Looks like C_IV is also anticipating this Tox data soon. Well, we all are considering the Oct. 21 PR states "The Company expects to receive a complete report of all laboratory and clinical data including blood chemistry and histopathology analysis soon."
The farther out it gets, the more I would get a little concerned about delay due to unexpected findings. However I am not at the point of worrying. I am still nearly fully invested as prudence allows for me.
I view this Tox data as most critical to the near-term share price as each step on the path to human clinicals brings us closer to more fully valuing the company's prospects. And good Tox results at this highest Max Feasible Dose (MFD) removes a ton of risk for the subsequent pre-clinical and clinical tests run no higher than this dose.
Hopefully good Tox laboratory results are in the next PR.
Here's to NNVC and the Docs continuing the impressive drumbeat of good news for the company!
I like your question, because I have been thinking about the same thing. I can run through my own thought process for you. Others may have some alternative takes on it.
So, antiviral nanoviricides are showing great early promise and the potential markets (plural) are absolutely huge.
Why wouldn't Big Pharma just swoop in - even now before pre-clinical Tox is done?
It is easy to think there must be some underlying risk not uncovered by the due diligence of those here on this message board and others touting NNVC.
Other folks here have covered the risk aversion of BP before further development flushes out any risks and sorts the wheat from the chaff. And some have described in previous posts that there have been some overtures from BP, but they didn't come close to properly valuing the probability of success and the future market value of the technology.
But in addition, Big Pharma may be having a hard time envisioning how NNVC and its technology would bolt on to their existing franchises. Most companies look for bolt-on adjacent technologies when looking for new business opportunities. This doesn't fit into the classic small molecule development as it is not a typical "drug" in terms of its chemistry or mechanism of action or ADME PK/PD. It also doesn't fit into biologics, as it is not a large molecule therapeutic protein and doesn't fit into CBER FDA regs or mechanisms of action. The viricide micelles are really a polymer chemistry that requires different resources and skills to synthesize, develop, characterize, specify, scale-up and test. Despite some work by BP on attaching PEG to therapeutic proteins, this isn't in the wheelhouse of a typical Big Pharma company and doesn't readily fit into their existing business franchises.
At the Big Pharma company, a specific executive in new business development has to stick their neck out and say:
You may (or may not) be right on that point. There is no way to know for sure at this point unless one or the other of us has non-publicly disclosed information about this study (I don't, and I don't think it seems likely that you do either).
It is true that if this is a common range-finding study, it would include multiple doses. But there are a number of reasons to be cautious about making that assumption about this study.
1. There was no indication in the press release of multiple doses, just MFD and no implication of more dose levels.(This is not proof they didn't use multiple doses, but if I was releasing a PR, I would have included an indication of testing multiple doses to take credit for that).
2. The company is still working on scale-up to manufacture the materials for such studies and so would be limited in the amount of material available to include in multiple dose arms of the study.
3. The only hard objective to make worthwhile this preliminary non-GLP study prior to the full GLP Tox study with multiple doses is to at least confirm the level or lack of toxicity with the highest dose - MFD (max feasible dose). If the company had high confidence of no Tox at MFD, it could have decided to proceed (at risk) with a single dose to establish MFD for the GLP Tox. And this way they would avoid the materials, expense and time of what would amount to a repeat of what they will get from the GLP Tox study.
So while I think it is possible you are correct that there were additional lower dose arms in the non-GLP Tox study, I am not assuming it to be true.
In fact, I think (IMHO) that it is more likely based on the points above that only MFD was tested.
(Have to go to work, so won't be able to respond until tonight).
Fair enough - after all, we are both trying to predict the future based on scenario planning. Your take may (or may not) be right. Best case - we'll never know if the remaining non-GLP Tox results come back perfectly clean.
My Take on it:
No Tox effects: ~75-99% odds
I think there are very good odds of perfectly clean MFD (max feasible dose) Tox results - IMHO odds of maybe 75-99% (I would make a more precise prediction if I knew the MFD used in g/kg). Stock should go up hugely, but many investors may not bid it up due to waiting on GLP Tox start and results.
But my DD findings are that GLP testing will not exceed the MFD used in this non-GLP study and more animals and different species are not likely to be affected differently as the mechanism of action for FluCide is extracellular and elimination is principally glomerular filtration by kidneys - and both will be similar across species. If the stock price gains are muted, this might be a good opportunity to buy.
Minor Tox effects: ~1-25% odds
Next would be minor effects apparent at MFD - IMHO odds of 1-25% (again - don't know MFD in g/kg). Stock may be volatile while investors try to figure out the implications. Without additional data at doses less than MFD, stock price may be depressed near term until the GLP Tox study data is in hand showing no Tox effects at lower doses that have been observed in preclinical testing to be efficacious. (I am assuming there were no doses lower than MFD in the non-GLP range-finding Tox as it was not explicitly mentioned in the press release.) If the stock price goes down, and Tox findings are minor, this might be a very good time to buy (not a recommendation but an speculation).
Major Tox effects: <1% odds
Extreme levels of PEG known to have toxic effects are well understood from literature, but management would have to really mess up to get close to these levels (not likely). There is also a very, very remote possibility of previously unknown sensitivities to PEG for the particular mice tested. Or there may be a coincidental finding that looks like toxicity - but sample size and control animals reduce this risk. Stock would be volatile and lower until results were well understood and GLP Tox data on hand. The risk/reward for buying would be widely bifurcated if Tox findings were real (but so unlikely not worth speculating more).
Just ~1week left for Interesting bifurcated NNVC risk/opportunity
--[IFF my estimations of timing for histology (slowest) assessments are correct and NNVC decides to release the rest of non-GLP Tox results for FluCide as soon as they are complete.]
--Original Post: Link to original post
We have great results for FluCide from outward clinical observations of the mice in the intial Tox study.
But we are still waiting on end-organ autopsy, histology, blood test and other longer-lead-time results from the study.
--REF 1 on very low but not zero PEG Tox risk: PEGylated Proteins: Evaluation of Their Safety in the Absence of Definitive Metabolism Studies R. Webster, E. Didier, et al
By the way - this non-GLP range-finding study, while not required for FDA, is typical industry practice to reduce risk in selection of highest dose for the more extensive (and expensive) GLP studies required for FDA IND submission.
--REF 2: LASA Guide on Dose Level Selection for Reg Tox Studies
--REF 3: FDA/ICH M3(R2)
--REF 4: M3(R2)EMA Q&A
1. If the remaining results of this worst case MFD (Max Feasible Dose) Tox come out with some limited toxicities - that could still be okay and not reduce the long-term promise of the technology, company, or stock - but it would likely (IMHO) make the stock price drop near-term.
2. If the remaining Tox results for this are clean - IT IS OFF TO THE RACES. The remaining GLP Tox for the IND will NOT include higher doses than used for this non-GLP Tox Study (per ICH M3(R2)) AND will take 2 WEEKS OR LESS for each dosing/animal regimen tested. Even in series, these IND GLP TOX TESTS WILL BE COMPLETED RAPIDLY (much faster than I thought initially). The only remaining hold-up would be manufacturing the material for the study - which is taking place NOW.
IMPORTANT TIMING note - In looking through ICH M3(R2), THE REQUIREMENT FOR DURATION OF TOX TESTING IS JUST 2 WEEKS OR LESS for single use pharmaceuticals (equal to duration of use in clinical studies). That means these GLP TOX TESTS WILL BE COMPLETED VERY QUICKLY - FURTHER ACCELERATING THE PATH TO FIRST HUMAN CLINICAL USE.
The reference is in the link at the end of my post. I double checked and the link is working. There are likely other references on google as well.
Welcome aboard, Rob_ND!
I am a relative newbie here as well, so maybe not as representative of the long-term boarders here, but welcome just the same.
All good points in your post. In addition, I'd include one more and a corollary that someone posted a while back - on average the vaccine is only about 50% effective in preventing Flu (not sure the source of this). And since the vaccine depends on the immune system of the individual, for those with compromised immune systems and the elderly, the vaccine effectiveness is even worse.
That means a lot of people who may get sick despite the vaccine and need it to prevent death (elderly), or needless suffering and be productive again (the rest of us).
Changes_iv, I was curious about why Gilead might put off Phase 3 of sofosbufir, so googled it.
Is it possible this isn't the latest information? Ref below says Friday they had a panel meeting which recommended 15-0 that FDA approve sofosbufir in combination with ribavirin for treatment of HCV GT 2 and 3 in adults as well as in combination with ribavirin/pegylated-interferon for treatment of HCV GT 1 and 4 in treatment-naive patients. Unless I am missing something?
Panel recommends FDA approve sofosbuvir for hepatitis C,October 25, 2013
Very low Short% of Float according to Yahoo!Finance
I am not really a trader-guy, but Yahoo!Finance shows only a 0.7% of float shorted for NNVC.
Have folks been following this lately? If I understand correctly, I think that this low % means likely near-term stability for the stock price, but less upside "pop" potential if there is more good news released (such as expected analytical Tox results) or other catalysts.
Have I got that right?
Anyone know what the Short % of Float was when the observable clinical Tox results were released with about a 7% sustained jump in stock price?
$5.05 Fri 10/18 close to $5.35 Fri 10/25 close after press release on observable clinical Tox at pre-open on M. 10-21
Less specifics on Clinical Trial Durations in Guidelines
There are less specifics on duration that I could find in Guidelines for clinical trials, but the information there does support Dr. Seymour's statement "it is possible to complete human trials in the space of a few short months".
All the testing - non-clinical and clinical builds on itself. From ICH E8 - General Considerations for Clinical Trials:
Thanks for providing correct PEG Tox link, Zinc!
I agree that if signs of FluCide toxicity are possibly observed at the extreme levels, it would be fine if accompanied by clean results free of toxicity at much lower levels expected to have efficacy.
However, it is unclear from the press release whether they tested levels lower than the MFD [max feasible dose] in this initial Tox Study - possible, but not certain. If the MFD level was an order of magnitude or more lower than literature findings of levels of PEG toxicity (as in my rough estimated comparison), they may have only tested at MFD - judging the risk to be sufficiently low.
Of course, IF there are findings of toxicity and IF only the single MFD was tested for initial Tox, they could always put the results in perspective by referencing the other tests prior to this at the much lower doses still found to be extremely efficacious with no findings of toxicity.
Whether or not, the upcoming GLP Tox testing will ultimately provide the complete data package for the IND submission at all the dose levels.
One last point for the Message Board (I know you've got this Zinc), to re-iterate from the ICH M3(R2) FDA guidance:
THE DOSE LEVELS IN ALL FUTURE TESTING WILL NOT EXCEED THE HIGHEST DOSE (MFD) ESTABLISHED IN THIS NON-GLP TOX TESTING, SO RESULTS FOR GLP TOX ARE EXPECTED TO BE EQUIVALENT OR BETTER THAN THIS.*
*Note: The differences from non-GLP to GLP testing for the sample size numbers and species of animals (adding non-rodent species) should not give different results for FluCide based on its extra-cellular Mechanism of Action (MOA).
Maybe Monday we'll get Tox results for autopsy/blood/histology. If there are no Tox effects there either, maybe my estimations of safety margin of the MFD from known toxic doses of PEG have some validity.
It would be great if they provide the actual dose level chosen for MFD (max feasible dose) in that release, but I think it is possible they may wait until they get a better read from full GLP Tox studies and release it as they begin human clinicals.
I was surprised to find the 2 week duration for individual Tox tests in the ICH M3(R2) guideline. The GLP Tox studies could fly - as you nicely reiterated.
BTW - I really got a kick out of the clip you sent on Becoming Obi-Wan! :>)
May the Force be with all NNVC long investors!