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I liked that there was no further dilution from the previous 10q and that they said they intended to license the technology out instead of producing it themselves. Was never really sure what Tim Young's plan was. Will certainly buy shares of whatever company they start licensing to when that happens if they're a publicly traded company.
I wouldn't jump the gun on assuming diminishing returns on the voltage increase. After they hit 1.25v they noted that they had come up with a new way of producing the particles. The 1.25v PR came out on 12/9/14. They announced they had increased .15v to 1.4v on 6/30/15 and then announced they had increased .15v more to the current 1.55v on 9/15/15. So the most recent jump actually goes contrary to the diminishing returns assumption. I'm not saying they'll continue to increase voltage at an increasing rate (which would be great) but I wouldn't just assume that it will take far longer to achieve 1.7v than it did 1.55v.
Hey DFF,
I commented on the patents a year or two ago so I'm saying this all from memory instead of looking it all up again. The first full patent filed by HYSR was announced in a PR on 9/10/13. The patent that was filed in 2012 was a provisional patent which gives you something like a year to file a full patent. Once the full patent is filed the USPTO (U.S. Patent & Trademark Office) says the current average amount of time to get it approved is 24.6 months which would put us somewhere around 9/28/15 before we should potentially even expect it to be approved. We're almost at that date now so I think it's not unreasonable to hope that we have an approved patent by year end. Hope this helps with you inquiry.
What did your email to Tim Young say? I'd really like to hear what his vision and time tables for that vision are after having achieved this.
I think he was just making his prediction for a timeline on when we should start hearing more big news. Now that the target voltage has been reached we'll hopefully start hearing more about a prototype and partnership opportunities.
Today is going to be a very good day. I wish they focused more in the PR about how this has never been done before at an affordable cost. Congrats to all the longs who have weathered the last couple of years but continued to believe that this day would come.
I think it's always a good time to announce that you've achieved something that no one else has ever been able to do before. That being said, I certainly hope we get a PR tonight because it's been 4 weeks. That's starting to worry me. Usually we get the annual report in the last week of Sept. so it seems too early for that.
The 10K usually comes out around the end of September. I hope we're not going to have to wait that long for new news.
Big run in last 30 mins of trading. Think someone knows of some big news coming out tonight? Looking forward to tomorrow.
Jose, it's certainly making me feel better than I did Tuesday when no PR came through. I agree with Cid Vicious that a voltage increase announcement before prototype makes more sense. Although isn't UCSB working on the prototype while Iowa is working on voltage? That would be the only reason I could think that they'd announce the prototype before the voltage increase. While I'm hoping a forthcoming announcement is driving the price up the plug in the Motley Fool article yesterday could have drawn attention that is driving the price as well. Either way, I'm not going to complain about share price going up.
I know it isn't totally unprecedented but is anyone a little concerned that there wasn't a PR last night?
Just to get conversation going...I've been following HYSR since 2012 and have held shares since 2013. This past update to 1.4v makes me very encouraged that within the next 18 months or less (by end of year 2016) they will have achieved both their voltage goal and completion of the prototype generator. It has been a long wait and 18 months is still quite a while but once those two goals are achieved I believe the wait will be well worth it as share price should explode. Potentially at that point there could be a reverse split as share price needs to be $4.00 to be listed on the Nasdaq.
After that would come production which should roll out no later than mid to late 2018. So while it could be 2.5 years before actual product roll out, if you can hold on to this stock for 3-5 years the payoff could be one of the best of most people's lives. I firmly believe they will find other avenues of revenue in the meantime such as licensing to keep the company viable through product roll out.
I intend to add to my position but I just wanted people's opinion on my thoughts for their future. I think it's relatively conservative in most aspects. Agree, disagree, both? Let me know. Thanks!
The biggest take away from the PR for me today was that this was the first time that they've referred to is as "patent protected" instead of "patent pending". That sounds to me like they've been awarded a patent at this point. Patents = value.
The last voltage update was 10 months after the one before it. Seems like it's taking longer (or getting harder) as they get closer to the 1.5v. I don't think a voltage increase should be expected in anything less than 10 months like the previous one and could be even longer.
The spike last March happened because PLUG announced their big contract with Wal-mart. The entire sector spiked (check FCEL as well). If you had been following HYSR for the past two years or so you knew there was no basis for their jump. I took out a 600% return, waited for it to fall back, bought more shares than I originally had, and kept my original investment plus 40% in cash. At this point I basically got paid to take 170k shares which I'm still holding. And now we play the waiting game...
Eric McFarland left HYSR and UCSB sometime in the last year or two. There was posting about it either on here or on their website at one point but I can't seem to find it now. He's working at the University of Queensland in Austrailia per the below link.
http://www.dowcsei.uq.edu.au/eric-mcfarland
What is your point? That 60 days would have been up on May 30th and we're well into July now.
Is it safe to assume .02 is the new .03? Or are people finally ready to say that the lack of news is continuing to drive this stock down?
Your broker has no idea how many shares were sold this quarter. 399 was what it was after last quater.
How's my very rational .027 price prediction looking now? A little better than your base of .03 it appears.
Definitely sounded like you were being sarcastic when you said to sell. Are you holding and if so are you selling?
I'd really love to hear your justification on how the company goes from being worth $10M to $14M on negative news (dilution). The floor is yours...
10Q just came out today. Looks like Tim issued 95,585,838 new shares. At the current market cap of 10.92M an increase of that many shares means pps should drop to .027. Unless somehow you're going to tell me that with no news and dilution the stock holds its price and goes up in value to 14M market cap it seems like it should fall out of your .03-.04 range.
The volume of trading is apparently directly correlated to the amount of posts on this board. Again, sorry to those of you that bought above .05, you've been quiet lately.
The irony in that statement...unreal.
Now we're trying to put a price on the IP which is a different ball game. Currently valued at almost $15M, I think thats a little too pricy until they get patents approved which will still be about a year and a half from now. I understand they need to fund operations and I'm ok with that, I'm just worried that after the next SEC filing we're going to see a jump from roughly 300M shares outstanding to 500M shares outstanding. Even at the current market cap that would make share prices go from currently .049 to .029 just based on dilution. Again, this is on a PR day where the price is up. In two weeks when they stop running out of fluff to release, how low does it go then? I hope there isn't any dilution but its hard to believe they didn't fund up during this pump.
If you can't sell it then you aren't part of the industry, IMO. You need to be able to grab some of the market share of the industry to be a part of it. If you can sell it and you aren't, then you're bad at business. I think they will be viable and part of the industry at some point but the fact is that they aren't making money selling anything right now. I don't think they're fluffing to drive a ferrari either but I certainly believe its possible they're fluffing to sell shares and raise capital at a higer price to continue doing business. Today's PR didn't even have a quote from anyone at HYSR so please, someone find me something in today's PR that is new and relevant to anything happening at HYSR.
Friday's close was at .049 and while I was writing that it was up 16% from yesterday's close, not Friday's, and sitting at .047. Last time I checked .047 was below .049 but you're welcome to check my math A$$hat.
Not something you should be happy with after a PR when it fell by as much yesterday though. PRs here should be about something substantive like a voltage boost or some type of business arrangement. This is the second time they've come out and said they're encouraged by where the industry is going. Well thats fantastic but they aren't even part of the industry yet so lets tell shareholders about the product progression before we tell them how much we could hypothetically sell if we had one.
Up 25% for a stock that costs .043 means it isn't even up a penny. It won't come close to trading at average volume today. While I've been typing this its now only up 16% so maybe you spoke a little too soon? It closed Friday at .049 and today after a PR it touched .051 and has fallen back below closing price on Friday? What a stellar PR, guess this was the one you were looking for to take us to $1.
He hasn't been bashing this stock. He's been saying that he believes it went up for absolutely no reason and that he fully expects it to go back to the prices it was trading at before this garbage hype started. How is that bashing? "We're encouraged by another company (PLUG) getting a contract with Wal-Mart for hydrogen technology" is literally the PR that made this stock go up by over 2000%. Does that seem rational to anyone? Is it really bashing for us to think that is absolutely stupid? Us "naysayers" have been on this board and following this stock way longer than anyone who is "long HYSR GLTYA OMG" since last month. Today, another stupid PR came out and now, people realize that it's garbage and the stock has barely moved. I wish it was a substantial PR. I want news that shows that they have progressed. This technology would absolutely change the world but these PRs aren't giving us anything. With today's PR I would almost say that Tim Young is being down right irresponsible. This was a garbage attempt to push the price up again but people are finally seeing through it and thats why there has been super low volume today. This stock is going to decline until something with some meat on it comes out.
First of all, from March 11 through March 21 it was on a downward trajectory from .11 to .035 and that trend was going to continue but then their PR came out. More over, when the pump began, volume was averaging about 60M shares a day and it didn't trade 60M shares this whole week combined. Sorry to those of you that bought in anywhere near .05. I think you'll make money but its going to be a while.
It was trading below .04 and heading lower until they came out with their latest PR which was not substantial. Probably will be another couple months until their next one which would make the price come down substantially.
You've been predicting $1.00 for the last month. You've also been saying we're on the ride to .20 and we haven't even been 2/3 of the way there at the hightest peak. You sir, are a pumper.
Everything on that link that you posted said Honda is building their own hydrogen station, nothing about PLUG doing anything with them. You need to get with it. If rumors were that PLUG was partnering with Honda then they wouldn't have dropped from $11+ to $6.45 in the last two weeks. Those rumors are being started by you and people like you that hype. No legitimate article is saying that Honda and PLUG are doing anything together. More importantly, even if they are, that does nothing for HYSR.
And why wouldn't they? The stock is on one of the biggest hypes its been on in years. They say something, it spikes over .06, they flood new shares on the market and they raise a ton more capital to fund operations than they have been at any point since 2011. Tim is smart and I wouldn't at all be surprised if they took advantage of that.
As for people that were selling off all their shares and "keeping the price down"...how do you know it wasn't the company? What's a little dilution matter to them when they can raise funds at the highest rate in 3 years to be able to operate for another year or two? You say its market manipulators, I say its the company taking advantage of easy funding on hype.
I think you're interpreting "close". 1.2v is 80% of the way there. Lets say they've made it to 1.23v, 82% of the way. Thats close but you're taking it to mean they're at like 1.4v. They announced at 1v, 1.1v, and 1.2v so I don't think they're at 1.3v yet or they'd have said it. They may even still be stuck at 1.2v and they'd still be correct in saying they're close. 80% is a B last time I checked.
If they hit 1.3v in April it will have taken another 2 months to get one more tenth so we're looking closer to somewhere between July-October for 1.5v assuming they can increase at the same rate. A lot of people on here seem to think once they hit the 1.23v hypothetically needed they'll just be able to race to 1.5v in no time. Seems like it would get harder if anything to squeeze out those last two volts being that, ya know, noone has ever been able to do it yet. I think they'll get there but not til late summer or fall.
What you should really look at is that this is the second PR they've come out with in a row that didn't really have anything to say. Yes, they filed for another patent but that will be a two year wait. Everyone was hoping they'd come out with another voltage increase but two straight PRs and no voltage increase gave it a little pop yesterday but now its fizzling again.
All these people on here hyping continually said "any PR and this thing is going to $1. How did that work out? There have been guys on here for almost a month now saying its on its way to .20. It's not. Not until they have substantial news. Some of these same people, one in particular, guranteed it would never drop below .05 again and it dipped there today the day after a PR. It was at .035 two days ago. They don't know what they're talking about.
People also don't seem to understand that if noone sold their shares then the stock price would never move. People saying "Hold your shares and we'd be over .20 by now" don't understand a very fundamental thing about stocks. To make the price go up you have to have people willing to sell at higher prices AND people willing to buy at higher prices. Noone is willing to buy this stock at .20 which is why for now this stock will not hit .20 until real news comes out and people see that they have something of real value. No kids, pipe dreams and "almost there" do not equal real value. When they are no longer "almost there" and are instead "there", thats when you have something of value.
Again, from the USPTO:
How long does it take for a patent application to be processed?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Currently, the average patent application pendency is 24.6 months. Applications received in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office are numbered in sequential order and the applicant will be informed within eight weeks of the application number and official filing date if filed in paper. If filed electronically, the application number is available within minutes.
http://www.uspto.gov/main/faq/
Its nice that their goal is to have it done in 12-18 months but in real life they're back logged so their current average patent takes 24.6 months to approve. Kinda like theoretical voltage is 1.23v but in real life its more like 1.5v. I do agree with your research on the subject but not the final assessment. Because if the patent office didn't come back in 18 months with an answer, realistically, they're the government so what are you going to do about it?
Again, you don't know anything about patents. They filed their non-provisional patent application in Sept. of 2013. In Oct. of 2012 they filed a provisional patent. The review process doesn't start until the filing of the non-provisional patent application. So, 24.6 months from Sept. 2013 = Sept. 2015. Sorry, facts are facts. You can read all about both types at the two below links from the US Patent and Trademark Office:
Non-Provisional (application that matters: http://www.uspto.gov/patents/resources/types/utility.jsp#heading-2
Provisional (application that no longer has any bearing whatsoever):
http://www.uspto.gov/patents/resources/types/provapp.jsp
I can do laps around you on this stock so quit miss informing people. If they had a viable way of getting bromine out they would have already started it to gain revenue and their stock price would be much higher than it is now. They will one day but they haven't yet. The hypothetical voltage is 1.23v but in real world scenarios it's approximately 1.5v. That could mean 1.53 or 1.47 and there hasn't been any announcement to clarify that by HYSR.