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Such a magnanimous gesture for members of the SCRC aristocracy to take time away from their fellow .05 PIPE stock holding brethren shortly before their planned retirement trip to Tuscany this summer to spend a few moments of levity and joviality to “laugh” with the commoners who bought on the market between .10-.11…
$3.4M in approved orders for JAN. Well, it is what it is. So now, let’s understand what this number may tell us about what FEB and MAR may look like…
First, let’s consider the variety of causes that have been blamed for the low numbers: Weather, Holidays, Deductibles, and Phase III rollout of the new Insurance Restrictions.
(1)
WEATHER/HOLIDAYS: Considering that even with the 5 days closed due to holidays/weather, this puts JAN as having only ONE less business day than NOV, it is extremely unlikely that this one day is the true cause of why JAN numbers fell over 35%. In addition, I stand by my opinion that unless a closure occurred toward the end of the month, there should be zero impact to the monthly numbers because the staff can catch up within the 1-2 days following their return to work.
(2)
DEDUCTIBLES: For those who elected to forego treatment due to high deductibles, the question then becomes: When will they hit their deductibles OR save up sufficient disposable income to pay it? By FEB? MAR? Q2? It would seem that by and large the issue of deductibles is temporary and will ultimately be one of timing before they get back onto their compounding treatment.
(3)
PHASE III ROLLOUT: As I stated previously, although we will never know what impact these new coverage limitations are having, it remains my layman’s opinion that because we saw no noticeable impact from Phases I & II, that we should similarly see no noticeable impact from Phase III either. Any decrease in JAN’s numbers that may have been attributable to this obviously would be a permanent loss.
So… …what does the above all mean? Well, it means that FEB and MAR will serve as litmus tests. Although FEB only has 28 days, it would seem that it should still end up with more business days than JAN since JAN was rationalized away in the PR as having lost 5 days due to holidays/weather. Therefore, if the reasons for JAN’s low numbers hold water, we should expect to see a meaningful uptick in FEB and a much much bigger uptick in MAR simply due to SOME of the deductibles getting hit by then and these patients who passed on their Rx’s in JAN coming back for them in FEB. In addition, if closures due to holidays/weather is being used as a reason why orders got pushed back and not approved in time, then these should all be caught up for sure by FEB.
BOTTOM LINE: Closures due to holidays/weather is a smokescreen and spin job and the real reasons are either related to the issue of Deductibles or the issue of the Phase III rollout. Clearly, shareholders prefer Deductibles to be the reason over Phase III rollout because losses due to Deductibles are primarily a timing issue and will return -- whereas losses due to the Phase III rollout are permanent.
Ultimately though, a day here or a day there… …or even a handful of patients here vs a handful of patients there who may or may not fill their Rx’s for whatever reason… …these are nickels and dimes that will not be the game-changers that we need to see.
What we need to see is SCRC getting compounding licenses for Main Ave in MORE states. In addition, what we need to see are NEW sales agreements being signed by NEW physician networks, hospital networks, skilled nursing facilities, long-term care facilities, physical therapy and rehab centers, etc. THESE are what triggered the exponential month-to-month growth that we saw the first 7 months of Main Ave launching last year, as it was most likely new agreements kicking in and the flood of brand new patients being immediately routed to Main Ave that caused the massive increases in approved orders each month.
Without new states and new networks/facilities signed up, we are left with small numbers of individual patients getting new Rx’s each month – which for the most part likely offset existing patients who are on their final refill and may no longer require pain creams (in essence, there is always a percentage of “revolving door patients” who collectively net to zero as new patients come in to replace old patients who leave). And this is what we have seen the past 4 months prior to JAN – a relative flatlining at around $5M/mo.
Now, as to SCRC “the investment”…
All in all, I believe that the announcement of low JAN numbers came at a good time from a purely “technical investment” perspective in the sense that we were very fortunate to have this announcement at a time when we have such a massive 10M+ share base right here in the .19x-.20x levels. In addition, the technical indicators and charts are still predominantly bullish, and so with the massive presence of traders (as opposed to investors) in SCRC, these folks typically make decisions based on charts and not off of PR’s or any “fundamentals”.
In essence, the strong TA indicators along with the massive base right here in the current sp range provided strong support as these shareholders – regardless of whether they are investors or traders – are unlikely to sell until/unless they see a high volume of OTHERS moving first that causes the sp to begin making a move in either direction. As I stated previously, barring anything material that is unexpected, I believe that the existing dilution flushing thru will continue to be the primary driver of where the sp goes for at least the short-term future.
Also, from an investment perspective, the good news is that the Street will see the year-end 10K and the $16.2M for Q4’14 before it sees the Q1’15 10Q showing these JAN numbers. So we will at least have the opportunity for a positive catalyst to hit in advance of the official Q1’15 10Q coming out.
There is still a few months before the Q1’15 10Q comes out, so hopefully BS Schneiderman can announce something materially favorable before then that can offset any perceptions of the Q1’15 numbers when they come out.
Continued GLTA…
These are all just from the past few weeks. There’s plenty more where these came from…
Simply repeating over and over again that a tout is from a phantom and imaginary “HF” source will not magically make the tout true. JOSEPH ZAMPETTI already is using this exact same tactic and knowledgeable retail investors see right thru his deception… …may as well attribute it to Warren Buffet…
Another encouraging day today. Stock is most definitely behaving differently than it used to before the bulk of the dilution flushed thru.
Each day it seems we are seeing a handful of technical traders buying in bit by bit.
Bachart.com now indicates that 100% of all short-term, mid-term, and long-term indicators all rate SCRC as a “buy”. In addition, it now indicates that SCRC sits in the top 10% percentile for both the Strength and Direction categories. In fact, the Direction rating has SCRC in the top 1% of all stocks.
This is what can happen when there is an absence of highly motivated sellers.
Another encouraging metric is that each day this week, the VWAP has creeped up. By my rough estimation, the VWAP for MON was .18, then .19 for TUE, then .20, then .205, and then today was .21. Unlike prior days when we kissed .21x, we seemed to have sustained buying interest at this .21x level instead of simply seeing 1-2 prints followed by a retrace. Hopefully these are the initial bricks in the foundation for a post-.20 base.
And speaking of bases, as you know, I have been mentioning for a couple weeks now that other than the 3-4M shares that comprised the base at the .13x-.14x levels, there has been no real consolidation at .15x, .16x, .17x, or .18x, and that the base at the .19x-.20x levels was the strongest we have seen since .13x-.14x. Well, since today’s VWAP was .21, we can’t include that, but prior to today, the base at the .19x-.20x level has now grown to approx 10.1M shares!!!
This should prove to be a solid area of support for us, IMO, so it should trigger an upward adjustment to everyone’s risk-reward calculus. Of course, there is no such thing as a free lunch, so the flipside to having such a massive base in the .19x-.20x level is that there will likely be some headwinds and moderately strong resistance at the .27x-.28x levels. All things considered, if we were to actually experience this resistance, it would mean that we are actually AT .27x-.28x, and so that would be a good problem to have, LOL…
Here is a final interesting tidbit for folks to chew on:
Since the run began in early-DEC'14 (so almost 2 months now) we have traded over 25M shares. Most of it getting discounted financier shares churned over and re-setting the cost basis of these shares, which was very important to do.
HOWEVER, even with a staggering 25M shares traded, this only translated to a little over $4M in dollar-volume. By way of comparison, in just a tiny 4-week period of time during the height of the epic P&D that JOSEPH ZAMPETTI and his core group of Section 17(b)-violating criminals were paid by SCRC to orchestrate, there was in excess of $8M in dollar volume traded.
Why is this important? Because it tells us that in spite of the massive 25M shares that have already traded and in spite of the fact that we have been running for almost 2 whole months already, that there is still PLENTY OF MONEY out there willing and able to buy in. So long as the technical indicators remain bullish and SCRC's financial results don't take a step backwards, this money will continue to flow into SCRC.
Continued GLTA...
Very encouraging day today. Volume was not where we want it to be, but certainly picked up after a very slow start…
…sellers were less motivated today, and as I had stated in a prior post, when the ask is firmly held, the buyers quickly raise their bid and we see the rising tide in the sp in spite of the overall lackluster volume…
…TA indicators are now trending bullish again – and strongly so -- so hopefully more technical traders will climb on board soon as well…
…per Barchart.com, all the short term sell indicators have now become buy and hold indicators… …and SCRC’s Strength and Direction percentile is now 70-80 and 90-100 (the highest ranking), respectively, compared to the 20-30 and 10-20 percentile rankings, respectively, that they were just a few days ago…
Great day of trading today...
...very encouraging to see the volume picking back up to over 700k...
...was funny to see the tape painter hard at work throughout the trading day, though (I wonder if he realizes that it is completely unnecessary and changes nothing?) -- who would've thunk that THIS is what all those defenders of criminal behavior meant when they keep clamoring that "JOSEPH ZAMPETTI works tirelessly to support SCRC's sp", LOL...
...let's hope that the past week was the necessary "breather" that the sp needed to take and that we can now continue onto the next leg of our journey, and have left the .17x levels behind us for good this time...