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OT - Well I'm official back at work now. I quit my job a month ago to take a break and decided to do a 1099/SE contract for the time being. Decided to check in, but I am going to start looking more at leftg's swing/trend trading system as I can't watch all day. So I'll wait for the white bar on his renko system to print and jump in.
$NDX 5min cup and handle if we break 1844, possible move to 1888.
OT - Foot, the ATT HSDPA is very similiar/comparable to Verizon's EVDO. Except I am partial to Verizon, since IMO they have better nationwide coverage than ATT. But if you are in the FL area mainly it's not a big deal. The coverage in FL with ATT looks good. Although I couldn't find how good the 3G coverage was/how many towers.
I've used all 3 before (verizon ~1mb/s-1.2mb/s, Sprint ~300kb/s-700kb/s, and ATT ~800kbps/~1mb/s) as a beta test bed in the baltimore/DC areae. Sprint's coverage was terrible and the speed was bad too cause they only had 2 towers in the area, ATT was okay but I always found verizon was really good and worked even in the boonies at lower speeds using the older technology at 100kb/s when I was in WY or West Virginia. Vendors always report faster than that but those were what I got in terms of speed. It really depends on how many people they have subscribed to one tower. This could've all changed by now since that was 1 1/2 years ago.
Clearwire/Wimax isn't in Orlando yet. Only Daytona and Jackson. But Wimax is suppose to be the future, and the speeds reported at the moment is about 2mb/s but Wimax can be much much faster at 10mb/s. It depends on how they implement wimax, but from what I hear, laptops are going to start shipping with built in wimax as an option, now or if not in a couple months.
So does that mean you're gonna be posting from the car now? LOL...
$NDX closed today w/ a long legged doji, signaling indecision between bulls/bears for the day.
OT - Hey... Foot did you ever get your laptop/wireless card? Are you using the Verizon EVDO card (cellular) for Inet Access? You may also look into Clearwire in your area for Wimax. Both gives you at least 1meg down. I think verizon's EVDO is $59.95/month my old company paid for mine cause I was suppose to be available to fix issues 24x7.
I thought the same thing that's why I had a tight stop on QLD and got stopped out. I thought we were going to the abyss if we cracked $NDX 1800. But it looks like a rally back from the jaws of death.
Smart, yeah it is pretty odd. I tried playing a 1/4 position on QLD earlier at 70.80 and was stopped out w/ a .25 loss and QLD finally bottomed @ 70.06. I'm flat now. Just watching.
Gleno, oil is just chugging back up from the lows. USO now up +1.40 from the lows. It's amazing how every dip is just bought.
OT I was walking around trying to find a place to eat for lunch on Cap Hill today and there were a lot of Obama volunteers trying to get me to contribute. I said no thanks, I'm a conservative at heart and would never vote or give money to Obama and their eyes were just big as saucers.
Well, that is a definite concern on what exactly do these ETFs short. I guess I will try to do some research to find out.
Gleno, I am not sure what to believe in terms of the vix except for where price/points are at the moment. The theory on why the VIX isn't rising sounds plausible but it's speculation. No one really knows. So I guess we will find out soon enough.
Ollie, one of the boards had a great discussion on why the VIX isn't spiking. People are buying ETF shorts rather than options because of premium erosions so the VIX is not spiking quite as high. It could be quite possible that the VIX doesn't spike nearly as high during this next drop.
"That's definitely part of what is happening.
Think of the VIX as a product competing in the portfolio hedging market (among others). With the rise of ETFs, ETF options, etc., where there was once only a handful of product choices for the portfolio manager looking to hedge his or her portfolio, now there are many competing products, with the result that the overall market share of the VIX is almost certain to decline -- unless its use grows faster than that of the overall market.
"
Interesting discussion on the VIX on this board:
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=6863&mn=2975&pt=msg&mid=5109863
LOL Lefty. I think pretty soon Gore and the Global warming crew will start saying there's too many humans and human breath is now causing global warm because we exhale CO2.
Thank gleno. So if the market plays out like the past it looks like we may have a ST bottomed with the $NDXA50R @ 10 yesterday, we bounce ST for 1-2 weeks which was typically the average of the bounce and then more down ahead for the $NDX and $NDXA50R. Then look for a positive divergence on the $NDXA50R for the next tradeable bottom which on average came in 4-6 weeks.
Gleno, the $NDXA50R is probably much lower today than yesterday at 10. This is getting close to a ST bottom. Although I agree the VIX needs to be much higher for capitulation. Can you create a chart of the $NDXA50R over the past 10 years? Thanks.
Note: the last couple NDX bottoms in Jan08/March08 and June07/July07. Although lows are made it seems like we need to see a positive divergence in this chart to see a true bottom. Note the June07 lows is lower than the July07 lows on this chart and the NDX finally bottomed in July07 same with Jan08 to March 08 w/ the final $NDX bottom in march.
Short double crude. So DTO replaces the now defunked DCR. DCR by macroshares stopped trading end of June and I believe closed at zero since Nymex crude had to close at $120.
I don't think I am brave enough to touch that. DTO is by powershares.
Woodfish, thanks for the heads up. I just did some research on the pattern. At first I could only find references to the Last engulfing/double lover's suicide on tops. But they appear to also happen on the bottom. I would feel better if the selling volume was higher today then yesterday. May be it's not a big deal though.
From Beyond Candlesticks: New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed By Steve Nison
"...the September lows, there was a last engulfing bottom. One of the more interesting aspects of this chart is that the volume on the long black candle session was unusually high. This could be viewed as a selling climax. This increased the chance that the last engulfing pattern was a bottom reversal."
Yeah unless you're the boys or Martha Stewart. LOL... BTW I see a 60min Diamond pattern? Not sure how reliable though.
Yup.. sure hard to rally when oil just moved +1.40 in the past 10min.
COT shows the commercials/boys are getting bullish on the Dow... The Dow has taken a big beating so I wouldn't be surprised if it starts trading sideways to up in the next couple weeks.
But, commericals are still bearish on SPX & NDX as they reduced even more long positions. I know this data is a week late but I think it still helps. Scamman certainly used the data off softwarenorth.
BTW - the volume bars on both QQQQ/$NDX are up pretty good today. Same with INDU/SPX. So I think we may see a 2-3 day more bounce on lighter volume.
But I've been wrong before, so I will try to figure out an exit strategy tonight.
2xer, I agree the NDX and MID have been lagging and hasn't corrected as much as the $RUT, $INDU and SPX. So there may be rotation back into INDU and/or SPX the beaten up indexes. While MID & NDX has more to correct/fall.
Today,
$SPX hit the 20% decline from high of 1576 and rebounded off the low @ 1260.
$INDU rebounded off a 21% decline off the 14198 high.
$RUT down ~20%, $MID down only 8.6% and $NDX down 11.6%.
I still think there will be a broad sector bounce before the 4th but the boys may decide to tank everything afterwards starting sometime early next week.
Yeah, I agree, I think we may have an OS bounce the rest of this week and then we will see what happens next Monday when the boys comes back. The trend is still down on the Daily/Weekly so once this QLD position is gone, I will try to look for entries on the short-side until the Daily trend changes.
Gleno, still holding on to my 1/4 QLD position from yesterday. My sell order didn't hit which is around the 34ma on the QQQQ 60min ~45.43.
Does $NDX/QQQQ look like a bullish engulfing or is it just me? QQQQ isn't done updating, but it's HOD is higher than yesterdays by 3 cents. We may see another up day tomorrow. Hope the employment #s and OIL reports aren't too bad.
"The bullish engulfing pattern consists of two candlesticks, the first black and the second white. The size of the black candlestick is not that important, but it should not be a doji which would be relatively easy to engulf. The second should be a long white candlestick – the bigger it is, the more bullish. The white body must totally engulf the body of the first black candlestick. Ideally, though not necessarily, the white body would engulf the shadows as well. Although shadows are permitted, they are usually small or nonexistent on both candlesticks."
http://stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/chart_analysis/candlestick_bullish_reversal_patterns/bullrev2-bulleng-sunw.png
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Be, nice call. I canceled my stop last night when the futures were up. Got up this morning @ 6:40 PST and we were way down.
But as soon as the ISM came out there were huge buys on QQQQ. Google is finally green with APPL and RIMM and the trinq has fallen back down below 1. I guess I was lucky. Only have a 1/4 position in QLD from yesterday.
Yup... Should've listened to you and myself this weekend, the bounce today was really weak and we ended negative. So instead I will be looking for opportunities to short the bounces until the daily charts proves otherwise.
Yeah... I should've stayed out too. Problem is Oil went down from it's highs today and we only got a weak bounce. I sure hope we don't gap down tomorrow as the pros start selling before they leave for the hamptons. I still have my QLD like a dope, should've gotten out on the last swing up. May get stopped out tomorrow.
I dunno gleno, It looks like we've been slimjimming on the 60min charts and you know what that means, break towards the direction of the trend. I guess we have to watch Friday's lows a break of that and we fill the 2nd $NDX gap.
Gleno, Oil is breaking down now which will probably be a catalyst for the markets to go higher. USO now down a buck.
BTW - running the Hood2coast in August. Friend from Portland suckered me into it. I went for a late run last night at 9PM and was so keyed up and couldn't sleep til 3:30 AM this morning. Currently working on my 3rd cup of coffee. Hopefully the fog clears.
Whew... Double checked my order it was for 1/4 position in QLD. I got scared for a moment there.
Opps I meant QLD not QID. Sheesh... I opened a QLD position. Tired as hell. Got only 3 hours of sleep last night. I am expecting a bounce this week. Probably a weak bounce.
Be, I bought some QIDs 1/4 position around ~10:45. I guess we will see with oil. USO is now heading back down. (LOL... How many times has everyone said OIL has topped.) May be they will try to close the USO gap at 113.93. I guess we will see, that should really spark a move up IMO. (EDITed - They just closed the gap on USO @ 11:13.) This is an interesting table that I have been reading in the past 5 mins. I have not verified but here is the article:
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=85674&obspage=1
With oil at a high, I don't think we will get any sort of rally til it drops some. USO opened @ 115.16 dropped to 114.57 and now is making new highs again @ 115.20.
Thanks, wow... the ATR is super high during the tech bubble on the $NDX. Those were the days where the $NDX would go up 80-100pts/day. I was trying to correlate last ATR peaks during the past drops. (Edit BTW - thanks, it appears stockcharts is letting me change the dates on the chart that you put up.)
BTW - yeah, I think we will get a bounce this week. The question is will it be trend changing? IMO, tomorrow may be big volume, but the rest of the week will be light volume because of the 4th of July Holiday. I just don't think it will be a meaningful enough bounce that will break the current downtrend daily line especially with the expected low volume.
FWIW- My look on the past $NDX data 1985-2007 on the last day of June/End of Month of the Quarter is 59% in favor of being up and 41% down. Pre 4th of July and Post 4th of july was an even 50/50 crapshoot. 50% chance down and 50% chance up.
Gleno, can you do me a favor and put a weekly $NDX candlestick chart over 10years with the following indicators on default?
MACD
ATR
Force
TIA.
Gleno, are you using ATR 14 Close (Default setting)? or are you putting in your own price pts? If using ATR14 then the 15min chart is using the last 14 bars (3 1/2 hours) on the 15min chart to average a point size for the renko brick. On the 30min chart, the last 14 bar (30min which is about a day) average, and on the 60min same deal (which would be ~ 2 days worth of bars since each bar is an hour). That is why the bricks are of different sizes on different time frames.
Gleno, Renko Board:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=12855
Gleno, apparently the ATR on renko is the same as the Average True Range indicator, meaning instead of selecting say MACD, you can select Average true range. Renko's ATR is also automagically set to 14. So it takes the average 14 closing days and spits out a number. You can set Renko ATR to High/low instead to get an average of the high/low prices over 14days. Anyhow, the ATR closing price number calculated over 14 days is default and used for the renko brick point size.
There is one caveat however. If you use the default ATR 14 with Renko, the ATR Renko value is different than the Average True Range indicator value of 14 when applied on the bottom of the renko charts because the Average True Range indicator is being applied directly on the same brick sizes of Renko. However, if you use Average true range indicator on candlesticks or bars the Average True Range 14 will be the same as the ATR 14 of renko if you chose High/low on Renko's ATR. So I believe Renko applies ATR 14 to bars or candles before the bricks are formed.
The Average True Range 14 indicator is calculated based on High/low prices over 14 days. The Renko ATR 14 can either use the closing price over 14 days to calculate points(default) or High/low over 14 days.
Also, I completely agree with what lefty says after more experimenting and reading the renko board and other websites on renko. Getting an ATR movement for say QLD for the past 14 days is a big move and for a price reversal it will take 2 bricks. Also, it is better to use Renko with a well-behaved stock. Not a stock with a super high beta with lots of volatility and whipsaws since Renko is used for trending.
So for example ATR14 = 3.6 for QLD which is the average price point movement for the past 14 days using the closing price of each day. For QLD to reverse up, it will take a movement of 7.2 on the renko chart. That is a huge movement. Imagine buying a quarter position at 500 shares. That is leaving $3600 on the table.
What I am thinking about is the following: Using Candlesticks get the ATR over the past 6months in order to get the price movement/range of QLD. (This way 6months will get the volatility when QLD moved 6points in a day which was some days in Jan08 and for some days QLD only moved 2points from high to low.) Divide that in 2 and that will equal your points. So for QLD, ATR 120 = 3.36/2 = 1.68 on the daily. 1.68 is the pts that I am going to use and a reversal will show after a point movement of 3.36.
Sorry about the long winded message. Hopefully that helps you out and remember the smaller the points you can get whipsawed, so finding that balance is delicate. Either you get whipsawed or you leave a bit of your profits on the table before the next trend reversal if you are not careful in selecting proper brick sizes.
Lefty, Thanks for sharing your system, and the help in better understanding Renko. I will experiment further, but so far I like it. I will continue testing, and will probably end up using Renko for my retirement account with a small position first, since there are less signals which is great. Also, Renko sure makes is easy for you to determine where to put a stop.
For my trading account ST, 5/30min charts I am experimenting with NERS.
Lefty, I've been scouring the net with regards to ATR because stockcharts doesn't really explain it that well. May be you can help me understand it a little more. The ATR value = the period where the renko charts will automatically calculate the point size and fill in a brick based on that point size.
So, correct me if I am wrong with this assessment, but if the ATR on a daily chart is 14, it will take the high/lows of the past 14 days and get an average for the point size. Now if it is on the minute charts like 15/30min then it will use ticks and when lets say 15mins is up, a new brick will form if price violates the average points set via ATR. If no point violation whether up or down then no new brick is created.
If you have a daily chart set to a year, would it be advantageous to set that ATR to a period that is really big, say 140 instead of 14? That way the point size is an average of high/lows over 140 days versus 14 days? I notice for the $NDX when I set the ATR to say 3 on the daily my point size was greater (48.5) because of the big price movement in the past 3 days. But when I set it to 140, the point size was smaller at 37.45.
May be I'm assessing this all wrong, but it seems better to set the ATR higher on the daily or weekly so it gets a true price point average than the volatility of the past few days or the past week.
I guess I have to play with it a bit more. May be it is better to use pts. and calculate how many pts. I am comfortable with before a reversal.
Again, thanks for the help.