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Doesn't look like there will be much of a run-up (if any) today unless we see it near the close of trading.
OK, let's get through the weekend and see the data on Monday.
TGIF!
The number of ONCS shareholders.
I assume this data is available? Does anyone know the approximate number?
Just curious. Thanks.
We understand your frustration, Mensa.
Just know that a LOT of us appreciate all of the insight and experience that you bring to the board.
Please keep your comments coming and the board in the loop on how you see ONCS playing out through the end of the year and into next year. We truly appreciate it. Thanks.
Small caps have been taking a beating the last few months and I don't see that changing anytime soon. We "might" see a nice EOY rally in small caps, but there is no guarantee of that.
So, it's going to take some "very good" news in order to move the needle northward in any substantial fashion, IMHO.
Let's hope that "Punit delivers the goods," as he has promised he will do this year.
What milestones has Punit explicitly promised for "this year?"
What explicit catalysts do we "believe" will occur this year?
I believe this may be part of the reason we haven't seen much of a run-up in advance of the data release.
It's called "show me the money this time..."
Maybe we'll see some action beginning tomorrow.
Good data and a partnership announcement will be the only events which could substantially move the stock higher and provide it with staying power.
Anything else is simply transient.
Anemic volume so far today. :(
Partnership needed.
Does this temper in any way what we should expect a partnership to do for the ONCS PPS?
LOL. Surely, you jest?
Here's one to postulate:
What would a fairly-valued acquisition price be at EOY for ONCS?
Well said.
That said, I really want them to be successful, as I lost my father to the dreaded Melanoma.
Here's one to postulate:
What would a fairly-valued acquisition price be at EOY for ONCS?
The numbers tell us one thing and they ultimately suggest a market cap well north of $500M at some point. However, at the end of the day, it's how good of a negotiator Punit and other board members are which will determine what big Pharma will pay?
Here are some possible scenarios:
No partner; go it alone: ~$0.50/share
Partnership w/no cash influx: ~$1/share
Partnership w/minimal cash influx: $1.25 to $1.75/share.
Partnership w/strong cash influx: $2-3/share
Multiple partnerships: > $3/share
Lots of variables involved, and I just can't see us staying under $200M market cap much longer.
I'm not sure, but I've made my last purchase for the month in expectation of a run-up from here, plus or minus a few days.
Long and strong with 325K shares.
Yep, I'm sure many big pharmas have budget line items for fines.
It's simply part of the culture, unfortunately...
Why did the FDA prematurely terminate this?
I agree and believe we'll trade in the upper 0.50s for awhile, before moving higher later this month.
I added more today between 0.56 and 0.57.
I agree.
I believe this was retail coming back on board with a vengeance after the summer holiday.
I wouldn't be surprised if we are trading in the 0.60s next week.
Google translate?
I could also test my VERY old high school French. LOL.
Why does Mensa not post here?
Someone mentioned that he posted 170 times on the Yahoo message board today alone?
I don't believe this is of much significance either way.
As mentioned before, most CEOs sit on boards of non-competing companies.
The PPS should not be affected by this unless it causes current shareholders (who follow the news) to sell. Any new money coming into the company based on Acorn pumping will not even be aware of this event. And this news will have no affect on any existing ONCS catalysts on the horizon.
A complete non-starter for substantive news, which is being blown out of proportion, IMHO.
IMHO, fundamental analysis doesn't play much into the evaluation of start-up biotechs. Sure, one can see the share float and whether a company is debt-free and has a cash runway through a given date. However, the absence of earnings (typically the case with small start-up biotechs) usually prevents much dynamic fundamental analysis.
So, your point is well taken about technical analysis (e.g. oversold, overbought, other metrics). For selfish reasons I TRULY wish you are right, but I just can't see technicals pushing ONCS above a buck, however. It will take positive news (and a lot of it) in my opinion.
In general, markets don't like macro uncertainty, and that also applies to stocks at the micro level. So, the absence of news tends to drive the PPS of small biotechs down, whereas positive news tends to drive the PPS up. All just my opinion, Fur.
For smaller moves I believe technicals can play a limited role in small biotechs like ONCS (e.g. market cap < $250M).
However, there is so much manipulation from the MMs that it's nearly impossible to tell what is technical and what is contrived. Especially here in OTC land.
For any large moves, however, it's news and news only which drives the stock either higher or lower.
Dominated by news, IMHO.
YES!
You should follow-up with him and report back to the board here!
I think you hit it on the head with Mensa.
He is an "opportunistic investor." When he believes a stock will go higher he begins to pump it relentlessly, in the hopes of providing additional momentum to benefit his own portfolio.
He is intelligent, but also brash, arrogant, not always right, and sometimes flat wrong. That said, I do read his posts as I believe I can pick out tidbits of useful information.
Eventual buyout at $20-25/share?
How can they predict this LEVEL with ANY certainty? And what is the time horizon for this? That's the one thing which seems a bit dubious. But here's to hoping for it!
Long and strong with 270K shares!
I wish I had more dry powder to burn at the moment, but I'm long and strong with 270K shares.
Thanks for the great update Tremors!
Go ONCS!
One can hold this long and profit.
Or one can flip and potentially profit even more.
The original schedule has been pushed back 6-12 months.
That's what came out of the last conference call.
Your time horizon for investing in INO may not be a match. I understand the "time value of money" and the "opportunity cost" of not putting your money elsewhere where it can earn money while we are waiting for catalysts to hit. The only problem is that you may miss out on some of the catalysts, since retail investors are always the last to find out.
GLTU.
I wish the market would react better to the article.
But upon reading it in more detail, it keeps bringing up dilution and the LENGTHY time likely needed for commercialization.
So, on balance, the article really isn't positive or negative. It was a mix of both. Not sure how much it's helping to make a case for ROI in a reasonable timeframe for many investors.
OK, I stand corrected with regard to the hTERT trial. Here is the skinny, direct from Bernie at IR:
Our stated milestone is that a phase I will start in 2H 2014.
This product and trial have nothing to do with Roche, which licensed hep B and prostate.
We’re also looking forward to seeing this third product in our “cancer portfolio” move into a human study. It will be another step toward the overall process that we have spoken about: at the R&D level we are in identifying and will advance an even broader set of antigen targets that we believe offer significant potential in different combinations to target virtually all cancers. There are typically multiple possible antigens related to any particular cancer (or infectious disease, for that matter). (Antigens are simply proteins associated with a particular cancer or infectious disease that the immune system can recognize as being “foreign.”) Different antigens are associated with different cancers and, like hTERT, certain antigens are associated to greater or less degrees to multiple cancers. So when we design the individual DNA plasmid “constructs” that contain the code, or instructions, to produce a specific antigen in the body, we can mix and match them to create an optimal set of targets to activate T cells against a particular cancer.
Achieving the efficacy proof of concept for our technology with the phase II data was an historical step for our technology, our company, and the field. It’s onward and upward. From here.
What are the "events" and what is there anticipated date(s) of occurrence?
This is probably more important than anything right now.
Yes, but it was interesting that it wasn't mentioned once during the recent CC.
I'd like to see better communication about pipeline updates during these conference calls.
For some reason, I'm not feeling confident this will get kicked off during the 2nd half of 2014. The clock is ticking.
INO-1400 h-TERT Trial.
I've seen nothing about this trial over that last few weeks.
Is this P1 trial still due to be initiated in 2014? Aren't part of our milestone payments based on its beginning?
This is the trial that MANY of us are most interested in, as the hTERT expression is found in 85% of all cancers and this could be part of a universal therapy for many of them.
Does ANYONE know anything about this VERY important trial? Is it still part of the INO pipeline?
Are there ANY institutional holders of ONCS?
According to NASDAQ I see only 3 holders, totaling 141,000 shares.
Heck, I nearly have that many shares!!! (100K)
One day to Miller (Dwarfing) Time!
Seriously, I have modest expectations for the CC.
But there can be no question that Q3 and Q4 are where the catalysts will be hitting:
* Initiation of one or more of the remaining P1 trials for 2014
* Amazingly good HPV P2 sub-set cohort data
* Discussion of the initiation of a HPV P3 trial
* Milestone payment
* New partnership(s)
I agree completely.
But what I'm curious about is the "organization" behind these attacks. Is it centralized through "The Street" and Jim Cramer? Or is it a consortium of hedge funds working together?
I just don't see these "events" as a product of random organization.
Your thoughts?